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  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    Socal,
    If this was directed at me, then I'm sorry. I can't engage. It's such a low and grave insult....

    say what you will about my mother, wife, sister, kids .... but to insinuate socal and me are one and the same....

    shame on you.


  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Socal, you are failing to factor in the corruption aspect.

    If people cannot conduct business with Thailand because corrupt officials make it too expensive and foreign businesses cannot rely upon the banking system then the Baht will become decidedly unattractive. My guess is that money will pour out of this country when the unthinkable happens, interest rates will rise and the economy will decline rapidly.
    You make it sound like Thailand is excessively currupt

    Greece is 10 times mor currupt as is Italy. Or even the USA. Thai people just make more noise about curruption because they were not colonized. Colonized people expect the curruption and the currupt governments do a better job of covering it up.

    The baht did not fall when people were being killed and central world was burning. How much proof do you need ?

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    Socal,
    If this was directed at me, then I'm sorry. I can't engage. It's such a low and grave insult....

    say what you will about my mother, wife, sister, kids .... but to insinuate socal and me are one and the same....

    shame on you.



    Are you with me on the Baht ?

  4. #29
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    Thanks for the advice guys, some good insight there. I think, as suggested, I will hedge my bets and bring some over at the current rate of 50.1, then wait and see what happens and hope the rate creeps up.

  5. #30
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    I'm hoping the baht goes to 70 before October, as i have to do home, either that or i live on the street

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yasojack View Post
    I'm hoping the baht goes to 70 before October, as i have to do home, either that or i live on the street
    Better start pimping out the wife... Or find a cardboard box...

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowzer
    anyone any clue as to how far the GBP will strengthen against the Baht?
    nope, it's impossible to tell, FX rates are famously random walk, and very dangerous to predict for that matter if you play actual money on it

  8. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    IMHO, short term the Baht will weaken. Long term much stronger against the USD than now. I can see 15 - 20 THB to 1 USD in the next 5 years and the EURO and Pound at similar ratios.
    you should stick to online games and taking online bets,

  9. #34
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    Don't think the Baht is going to take a dive, while that hungry monster from the north keeps growing.
    China may slow and speed up, but it will not stop growing and the Baht will grow with China.
    I would love a weak Baht, but don't see it happening. Jim

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Socal, you are failing to factor in the corruption aspect.

    If people cannot conduct business with Thailand because corrupt officials make it too expensive and foreign businesses cannot rely upon the banking system then the Baht will become decidedly unattractive. My guess is that money will pour out of this country when the unthinkable happens, interest rates will rise and the economy will decline rapidly.
    You make it sound like Thailand is excessively currupt

    Greece is 10 times more currupt as is Italy. Or even the USA........

    The baht did not fall when people were being killed and central world was burning. How much proof do you need ?
    The red shirt protests had nothing to do with corruption whatsoever.

    Thailand's corruption is already on a par with Columbia but many who live and work here do not realise the full extent of the mechanism by which Thailand functions or the knife-edge on which the financial structure operates, or the size of the drug industry.

    Thailand came close, last year, to being placed on the same watch list as North Korea and was obliged to enact money laundering regulations to avoid financial disaster. The big question is whether the regulations will be enforced. Our experience with Siam Commercial Bank has been that they have no idea what to do and their reaction has been to try and block every single international transaction in order to avoid doing anything wrong. This is Thailand's premier bank and they are resorting to bullshit.

    If Thai banks don't wise up in the near future this country's economy will be unable to function and businesses would have to resort to the black market in order to trade internationally as Thailand winds up on a par with Somalia and North Korea. We would already be there if it were not for new regulations which the banks do not understand.
    I see fish. They are everywhere. They don't know they are fish.

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Are you with me on the Baht ?
    I'm pretty heavy on the Baht, PI Pesos, Yen, and Beer Chang when you pay your debt

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Socal, you are failing to factor in the corruption aspect.

    If people cannot conduct business with Thailand because corrupt officials make it too expensive and foreign businesses cannot rely upon the banking system then the Baht will become decidedly unattractive. My guess is that money will pour out of this country when the unthinkable happens, interest rates will rise and the economy will decline rapidly.
    You make it sound like Thailand is excessively currupt

    Greece is 10 times more currupt as is Italy. Or even the USA........

    The baht did not fall when people were being killed and central world was burning. How much proof do you need ?
    The red shirt protests had nothing to do with corruption whatsoever.

    Thailand's corruption is already on a par with Columbia but many who live and work here do not realise the full extent of the mechanism by which Thailand functions or the knife-edge on which the financial structure operates, or the size of the drug industry.

    Thailand came close, last year, to being placed on the same watch list as North Korea and was obliged to enact money laundering regulations to avoid financial disaster. The big question is whether the regulations will be enforced. Our experience with Siam Commercial Bank has been that they have no idea what to do and their reaction has been to try and block every single international transaction in order to avoid doing anything wrong. This is Thailand's premier bank and they are resorting to bullshit.

    If Thai banks don't wise up in the near future this country's economy will be unable to function and businesses would have to resort to the black market in order to trade internationally as Thailand winds up on a par with Somalia and North Korea. We would already be there if it were not for new regulations which the banks do not understand.
    That is a crock of urban myth bullshit. I just checked the corruption index. Not even close to the countries you mentioned.

    Thailand has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the whole world. It is a creditor nation and a trade surplus nation. The Baht is not going to crater for any fundamental reason.

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    Are you with me on the Baht ?
    I'm pretty heavy on the Baht, PI Pesos, Yen, and Beer Chang when you pay your debt
    I should have went to Thailand in the spring... I almost did.

  14. #39
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    Socal, I have my own company here and am registered under the money laundering regulations.

    It helps if you have some idea what you are talkiing about.

    The corruption perceptions index:

    2012 Corruption Perceptions Index -- Results

    Thailand at joint 88th is three steps higher than Columbia, which is at joint 94th with Greece.

    As for money laundering, I was referring to the Financial Action Task Force list where Thailand was faced with the prospect of joining North Korea on the blacklist earlier this year but has narrowly escaped...for the moment, and is currently on the grey list.

    Thailand been removed from high-risk country for financial transactions | Bangkok Post: news

    Before referring to my comments as a crock of urban bullshit it might help if you learn something about the subject you are commenting on. I work with this, in Thailand, every day of the week, and speak with government officials and bank staff regularly. They are, at best, confused. Personally, from what I see every day, I think the prospect is dismal. The amounts being laundered are so substantial, and bank salaries so low, that temptation alone is likely to overwhelm the system here. When it does the Baht won't be worth shirt-buttons.

  15. #40
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    The baht will go up to it's highest point and then it will go down. This is a fact.

  16. #41
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    Here is some more urban bullshit.

    Follow-through urged on money laundering law | Bangkok Post: business

    Thailand is still on the watchlist; merely enacting new legislation is not enough, it has to be enforced. It would be a good start if someone told the bank staff what to look for but right now they haven't a clue. They know they should be doing something but nobody knows what.

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    ...Thailand winds up on a par with Somalia and North Korea...
    That's quite a claim.

  18. #43
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    ^
    In this region the countries in a worse position than Thailand are Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam which are all just one step above Iran and North Korea.

  19. #44
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    In this region the countries in a worse position than Thailand are Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam which are all just one step above Iran (though you said Somalia) and North Korea.
    A worse position in what regard? In most ways, it's hard to believe that Laos and Cambodia are less likely than Thailand to complete the magical transformation into either Somalia or North Korea.

    It's true that in some places, comparisons to North Korea are made pretty regularly, though that's more to do with opinions which get you 5-15 years per offence but I don't there's much immediate danger of mass starvation (if we turn into North Korea) or the total collapse of the state along with essentially all non-local institutions (if we turn into Somalia) but maybe I'm just too much of an optimist.

  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Socal, I have my own company here and am registered under the money laundering regulations.

    It helps if you have some idea what you are talkiing about.

    The corruption perceptions index:

    2012 Corruption Perceptions Index -- Results

    Thailand at joint 88th is three steps higher than Columbia, which is at joint 94th with Greece.

    As for money laundering, I was referring to the Financial Action Task Force list where Thailand was faced with the prospect of joining North Korea on the blacklist earlier this year but has narrowly escaped...for the moment, and is currently on the grey list.

    Thailand been removed from high-risk country for financial transactions | Bangkok Post: news

    Before referring to my comments as a crock of urban bullshit it might help if you learn something about the subject you are commenting on. I work with this, in Thailand, every day of the week, and speak with government officials and bank staff regularly. They are, at best, confused. Personally, from what I see every day, I think the prospect is dismal. The amounts being laundered are so substantial, and bank salaries so low, that temptation alone is likely to overwhelm the system here. When it does the Baht won't be worth shirt-buttons.
    This kind of corruption has very little to do with the trade weighted value of a currency.

    Trade balance
    Debt to GDP
    Composition of GDP
    Employment rate

    Thailand scores good on all counts in comparison to most western nations or nations in general.

    Laundering is everywhere

    Money-Laundering Banks Still Get a Pass From U.S.


    By Simon Johnson Mar 31, 2013 4:30 PM MT


    Money laundering by large international banks has reached epidemic proportions, and U.S. authorities are supposedly looking into Citigroup Inc. (C) and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    Governor Jerome Powell, on behalf of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, recently testified to Congress on the issue, and he sounded serious. But international criminals and terrorists neednít worry. This is window dressing: Complicit bankers have nothing to fear from the U.S. justice system.

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    Here is some more urban bullshit.

    Follow-through urged on money laundering law | Bangkok Post: business

    Thailand is still on the watchlist; merely enacting new legislation is not enough, it has to be enforced. It would be a good start if someone told the bank staff what to look for but right now they haven't a clue. They know they should be doing something but nobody knows what.
    Some of this laundering actually helps the balance of payments situation which is currency positive. This thread is about the value of the Baht. Not about curruption

  22. #47
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    ^^^
    In terms of money laundering regulations. I have to personally approve every single credit card transaction from those countries, there is no automatic acceptance, and if either of those countries' status worsens then I will not be permitted to conduct business with people living there.

    Laos and Cambodia are considered to be "improving" and as such are in a marginally better position that Vietnam and Indonesia.

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    ^
    In this region the countries in a worse position than Thailand are Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Vietnam which are all just one step above Iran and North Korea.
    Bullshit

    Thailand is lightyears ahead of any of the above in many other metrics.

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge View Post
    ^^^
    In terms of money laundering regulations. I have to personally approve every single credit card transaction from those countries, there is no automatic acceptance, and if either of those countries' status worsens then I will not be permitted to conduct business with people living there.

    Laos and Cambodia are considered to be "improving" and as such are in a marginally better position that Vietnam and Indonesia.
    I'm still not sure why we face mass starvation and the collapse of the state. In the 12 years which I've lived here, we have (in the minds of some foreigners) always been a year away from civil war and economic collapse. If you wait long enough, it will happen but I can't see anything in what you've posted to justify such dire predictions.

  25. #50
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    Tormaturge, may be you can enlighten me as to how money laundering can cause the Baht to crash.
    Whether the money was obtained from illegal dealings or not it's still money, a drug dealer laundering illegal drugs money is no different than a drug company selling legal drugs. They both sell a product for which money is paid, the illegal guy is evading taxes and committing criminal offenses, but the money is still money, so what bearing would it have on the value of the Baht. Jim

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