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  1. #101
    R.I.P. Luigi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maanaam View Post
    my answer to the problem.
    Yeah, that you'd rat on a bloke 'cause he isn't your mate.


    Quote Originally Posted by Manny The Rat View Post
    I'd speak up
    PoS rat.

  2. #102
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    Trumpian spin and Luluian misconstruing.
    You show yourself as a Trump-alike every day.


    Of course, in the scenario, if you were my partner in crime, I'd confess. Because I know you'd be a rat.

  3. #103
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    'ere we go 'ere we go 'ere we go...



  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    If you grass
    Quote Originally Posted by Manny The Rat View Post
    I'd speak up
    Quote Originally Posted by Manny the Rat View Post


    Be careful of Manny lads, he rats out people he doesn't know or doesn't like.


    PoS rat.

  5. #105
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    Come on, what's the solution, I don't think this is going anywhere.

  6. #106
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Spoiler alert!

    There are 4 possible things that can happen: A can choose to remain silent or talk. B has the same two options, and now they need to consider what's best for both of them.

    The best option is for both to stay quiet and get two years apiece; if they could communicate and agree on this it is clearly the best option, but they can't so that's out.

    You are prisoner A, with no control over what B does.

    If you stay quiet you will spend 2 years or 10 years in jail, depending on whether or not B snitches. If you snitch, you will either walk free or do 5 years, again depending on B.

    From your perspective, it makes more sense to snitch, since 5 years or freedom looks better than 2 years or ten years.

    So you snitch.

    However, prisoner B also goes through the same reasoning, and also snitches, leaving you both in jail for 5 years.

    Neither of you ends up with the optimal result, but as both of you have the same information and choices, it follows that both must take the logical step to snitch.


    This is a textbook example of a game analysed in game theory that shows why two completely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so. Though it is called game theory, it can be applied to many aspects of life, including politics, economics, business and personal affairs.
    Last edited by jabir; 21-02-2019 at 10:37 AM.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    The best option is for both to stay quiet and get two years apiece...
    moral of the story: choose your gangster friends wisely

  8. #108
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    Or simply don't rat on anybody, no matter what, and accept whichever sentence you get.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    However, prisoner B also goes through the same reasoning, and also snitches, leaving you both in jail for 5 years.
    In mathematical terms, yes. But that is what you don't know, people aren't rational by default. Still interesting.

  10. #110
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Game Theory explains how individuals and groups approach complex decisions, and make optimal choices for their best interests, which is easy enough without other data, but now based on the expected choices of other party’s, so that each in turn affects the other.

    Fex, two manufacturers dominate an industry, let’s say toasters. A and B each produce a million identical toasters a year which sell at £30 each. Their costs per toaster is £20, so they each make an annual profit of £10m. They know the market could absorb double the number of toasters at a reduced rate, but max capacity for each factory is 2m.

    Both factories go into scrum and consider boosting to full capacity of 2m toasters a year, selling at £27. In this scenario, their profit would jump 40% from £10m to £14m (2m x 7). Looking good.

    But each knows that if they boost to 2m pa, the other would follow suit. In this scenario, instead of increasing profits by doubling production, they would each end up producing 2m toasters that sell for £24, reducing their annual profits from the current £10m to £8m.

    This places both companies in a state of Nash Equilibrium, based on the other party’s expected response, so that neither business could make more money by unilaterally increasing production.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Game Theory explains how individuals and groups approach complex decisions, and make optimal choices for their best interests, which is easy enough without other data, but now based on the expected choices of other party’s, so that each in turn affects the other.

    Fex, two manufacturers dominate an industry, let’s say toasters. A and B each produce a million identical toasters a year which sell at £30 each. Their costs per toaster is £20, so they each make an annual profit of £10m. They know the market could absorb double the number of toasters at a reduced rate, but max capacity for each factory is 2m.

    Both factories go into scrum and consider boosting to full capacity of 2m toasters a year, selling at £27. In this scenario, their profit would jump 40% from £10m to £14m (2m x 7). Looking good.

    But each knows that if they boost to 2m pa, the other would follow suit. In this scenario, instead of increasing profits by doubling production, they would each end up producing 2m toasters that sell for £24, reducing their annual profits from the current £10m to £8m.

    This places both companies in a state of Nash Equilibrium, based on the other party’s expected response, so that neither business could make more money by unilaterally increasing production.
    Nash...there was a movie about him...played by the same guy that played the speech therapist in The King's Speech
    Sounds like Game Theory should be taught in Thai primary schools so that future shopkeepers know the folly of what they will undoubtedly do.

  12. #112
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Game Theory (GT)

    Chicken! This derives from a game in which two drivers drive toward each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash. But if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a ‘chicken’, or coward. The best choice for each driver is to stay the course while the other swerves, while a crash is the worst outcome for both players. This creates a situation where each player attempts to secure their best outcome while risking the worst.

    The chicken metaphor applies in normal life, where two parties engage in a showdown where they have nothing to gain and much to lose, with only pride stopping them from backing down. Best example in our time, as compared by Bertrand Russell was the Cuban Crisis, while much the same on lesser scales happen daily around the world.

    While 'chicken' is an extreme example of GT, each time you make a choice, or take a risk or negotiate for something that depends on expected decisions by others, GT kicks in.

    --------

    The volunteer's dilemma (VT): each of n players faces the decision of either making a small sacrifice from which everyone benefits, or freeload.

    Fex, power cut in the neighbourhood, everyone knows the electricity company will fix the problem if they are aware of it, but that means at least one person must call to notify them, at some cost, perhaps the cost of a phone call or the time, inconvenience and frustration of playing the numbers game for 20 minutes before reaching a live person. If nobody volunteers, the worst possible outcome is on all participants. If any one person volunteers, the rest benefit by not doing so.

    In this game, bystanders decide whether to make a sacrifice which benefits the group. As the volunteer receives no benefit, there is a greater incentive to freeload than to sacrifice for the group. If no one volunteers, everyone loses.

    Next in GT is the ‘bystander effect’ and ‘diffusion of responsibility’, where a public good is only produced if at least one person volunteers to pay an arbitrary cost, whether nominal or monumental.

    Fex, Kitty Genovese was stabbed to death outside her apartment building in New York, in 1964. According to the NYT, dozens of people witnessed the assault but everyone expected others would contact the police, and nobody wanted to incur the personal costs and potential risks of getting involved.

    Nature's best example of the VT is the meerkat. One or more meerkats act as sentries while the others rest or forage for food. If a predator approaches, the sentry sounds the alert and the others can burrow to safety. But the sentry meerkat risks being killed by the predator.

  13. #113
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maanaam View Post
    Nash...there was a movie about him...played by the same guy that played the speech therapist in The King's Speech
    Sounds like Game Theory should be taught in Thai primary schools so that future shopkeepers know the folly of what they will undoubtedly do.
    Loads of GT games and examples for kids as young as 4, and yes it should definitely be taught from primary.

  14. #114
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Another Prisoner’s Dilemma:

    The warden of the Arizona State Penitentiary decides to have some fun on his birthday. He will give three prisoners a chance to go free, but only if they can prove themselves worthy.

    He brings out five hats, three red and two blue. The three prisoners are blindfolded and a hat is placed at random on each of their heads.

    He lines up the prisoners one behind the other facing a wall, and removes the blindfolds so that C can see A and B and their hats, B can see only A and his hat, while A, being in the front, cannot see any hats. And of course no prisoner can see the colour of his own hat.

    The problem he puts to the prisoners is simple: “If you can determine the colour of your hat, I will release you. If you answer incorrectly, I will add 20 years to your sentence! However, if you do not know or choose not to answer, you gain or lose nothing.

    He asks Prisoner C, “What is the colour of your hat?” C thinks for a while and replies, “I'm sorry, I don't know.”

    He asks Prisoner B, “What is the colour of your hat?” Prisoner B thinks for a while and also replies, “I'm sorry, I don't know.”

    He asks Prisoner A, “What is the colour of your hat?” Prisoner A thinks for a while and then replies, “The colour of my hat is….”

    What colour hat is Prisoner A wearing, and how did he know?

  15. #115
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    he had a red hat. He could see the two blues in front of him.

  16. #116
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    ^ Prisoner A is at the front, he wouldn't see either B or C.

  17. #117
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    C can see A and B, but doesn't know.


    So A+B don't both have blue hats. They could have 2 red hats, or 1 blue and 1 red.


    B, knowing this, can see A's hat, but cannot see either his or C's.... he can deduce that if A has a blue hat, he has a red hat.

    But he says he doesn't know. So A's hat is red.
    Last edited by Luigi; 21-02-2019 at 01:53 PM.

  18. #118
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    C (I don't know)

    AB AB AB

    B (knows both his and A's aren't both blue)

    A - B knows that his is red, because they both aren't blue.

    A - B doesn't know if his is red or blue.

    B doesn't know. So A knows his hat is red.



    Anything else to get me out of studying my Thai writing homework?

  19. #119
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nidhogg View Post
    he had a red hat. He could see the two blues in front of him.
    A could only see the wall.

  20. #120
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    C (I don't know)

    AB AB AB

    B (knows both his and A's aren't both blue)

    A - B knows that his is red, because they both aren't blue.

    A - B doesn't know if his is red or blue.

    B doesn't know. So A knows his hat is red.



    Anything else to get me out of studying my Thai writing homework?
    Right answer, and process.

  21. #121
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    You reach the final of a game show and are presented with 3 boxes, 1 contains a cheque for £1m while the other two are empty. You choose a box, A, the host opens one of the others, B, to show it is empty, and then gives you the choice to keep your box or swap it for box C.

    What should you do, and why?

  22. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luigi View Post
    C can see A and B, but doesn't know.


    So A+B don't both have blue hats. They could have 2 red hats, or 1 blue and 1 red.


    B, knowing this, can see A's hat, but cannot see either his or C's.... he can deduce that if A has a blue hat, he has a red hat.

    But he says he doesn't know. So A's hat is red.
    Correct.
    Good googling Lu, well done.

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Right answer, and process.

  24. #124
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    ^ Makes me think what would an interesting Thai school question on Game Theory be?

    Consider a bangkok soi with umpteen banana shops all selling bananas from the same source upcountry at the same price and all surviving. What happens when a new shop opens selling bananas at lower cost from a new cheaper source? A) all the other shops sit and grumble whilst the new guy rakes in the coin and slowly they go out of business B) all shops drop their price to match causing a profit war also resulting in most going out of business C) the owner of the new shop suddenly goes missing and everything carries on as usual D) all shop owners sit down over a bottle and agree to maintain previous pricing but switch sources and share profits resulting in a higher but fixed market E) a 7-11 is built selling cheaper bananas than anyone can source and all the independent shops close

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