^ Where did I claim I can? I had a Thai read it and translate it...
Dear oh dear Scaramanga. You were caught out by this and don't posses the decency to acknowledge your error.
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^ Where did I claim I can? I had a Thai read it and translate it...
Dear oh dear Scaramanga. You were caught out by this and don't posses the decency to acknowledge your error.
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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
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Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by StrontiumDog
You said you saw it with your own eyes giving another falls impression that you can read Thai.
La Thaïlande à la merci d’un «coup d’État aquatique»
OCTOBER 27, 2011
Le Figaro has a story on the “aquatic coup,” and a reader sent us this translation. No one at PPT is a fluent French speaker, so we are reliant on readers to correct any problems with the translation. Still, we think the gist of it is clear:
The head of the government is no longer obeyed. The country, submerged by the waters, could entrust her fate to the army.
In the monstrous floods that ravaged the country since July, the army could again determine the political course of the kingdom. Before the vagaries of Yingluck Shinawatra government response to the disaster, the opposition demanded the declaration of a state of emergency, which would give all authority to the Army. After the “virtuous coup” of 2006, supposed to deliver Thailand of a tyrannical and corrupt Prime Minister [Thaksin Shinawatra], then the “half-coup” of 2010 to maintain in power the Democrat Party of Abhisit Vejjajiva, an aquatic version of the coup is played out today. The opponents of the Prime Minister are using the flood – which has killed 350 people and paralyzed much of the economy – for political purposes. They prevent a coordinated response from the government and undermine its credibility, says the entourage of Yingluck Shinawatra.
If the government has been slow to take measures against the flood and left ministers to give conflicting information – when they were not missing the point – it must also contend with interference of Surayud Chulanont, an adviser of the king. The Prime Minister was almost obliged to follow advice by the palace, as grotesque as they are: about a thousand of boats went up the Chao Phraya River, which winds through Bangkok, hoping to push the water to the sea with their engines …
Waters interfere in Bangkok
Above all, the Yingluck government is struggling with the army and the governor of Bangkok that operate independently. “Listen only to me. I will tell you when to evacuate,” does not hesitate to repeat the Governor Sukhumband Paribatra, a pillar of the opposition. Thailand has refused U.S. aid Tuesday under pressure from the army, which does not want them to put them nose in them affairs. Finally, the head of government is not obeyed, “I gave the order to open the locks of Bangkok. I was told that it was done, but when we checked, it was far from being the case,” she explained recently to illustrate the difficulty of having control over all the flooding
Hypothesis recurrent
But the floods have also revived the battle that marks the divide between the country’s elite and the rural and urban poor who have recently elected the youngest of the Shinawatra clan. “They don’t do anymore neighborhoods in the Thai political arena [sic.]. The only goal is to eliminate the opponents, even at the expense of national interests,” says the political analyst Pavin Chachavalpongpun.
In a country that has experienced 18 coups – and dozens of others missed – in sixty years, the return of the military is a recurring event. Community radio stations of the “red shirts” knows it: they denounce already a “conspiracy of the elite” and a “dirty revenge against the ballot.”
^One of the more stupid articles I have read; Andrew Spooner will be shortly blogging about it no doubt.
Just remember one fact when reading about the flood disaster in the L.o. S. Nearly everybody in Officialdom,from the Government at the top down to the lowly Officials in the affected Areas,including the maintainers of the Dams,Waterways and associated systems,a lot of the so-called experts that are telling us what is going to happen and the weather forcasters that tell us the future weather all have one thing in common.
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THEY ALL BOUGHT THEIR POSITION OR THEIR QUALIFICATION.
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. Explains a lot .:chitown:
Yes, I saw it with my own eyes...how does that imply I can read it. As I said, i asked a Thai to translate it for me, you know, having taken photos of it (I have more...)Quote:
Originally Posted by Scaramanga
How desperate are you getting Scaramanga?
So to summarise unless there's some evidence that SD's into image manipulation, its quite possible that the photoshop artefacts in the original post might have been the result processing to sharpen up the text on the boat, rather than pasting. We seem to now have three different boats that have rather similar text on their red and white labels.
Is there any reason beyond wishful thinking for not seeing this as evidence that there are at least elements within redshirt movement that are offering partisan assistance during this crisis?
Again if the allegations are true, more than the immorality of such a thing, its playing right into the hands of the military, it gives them more ammunition to explain why felt the need to replace the government.
^ IMO all the fighting is just about who gets to hold the whip hand during a future critical phase. Its got nothing to do with democracy, just mob rule.
The reds (some elements of it) play the democracy card for all its worth as it gives them the legitimacy and cover to pursue their real agenda
I don't believe Thailand automatically becomes more democratic just because a larger mob in in charge, in fact it can easily get worse, but who knows?
Where's drbob when you want him to be rude to you? I miss his elegant prose.
^ yep. quite a number of the red apologists seem to be missing today. :rofl:
He is a most charming fellow though, isn't he.:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by hazz
Could not be asked to read the last six pages but as an expat living and working over here for the last five years the lack of information comes as no surprise............ T-I-T. Welcome to Thailand, would not swap it for Blighty:smileylaughing:
Perhaps they are busy helping with flood relief, instead of following the events on media, to their vast delight and amusement. All the critics who sit in their comfortable dry abodes, sniping away at the easy targets bobbing in the vast inland sea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerbil
Thailand in trouble | The Japan Times Online
Friday, Oct. 28, 2011
EDITORIAL
Thailand in trouble
Floods in Thailand, which initially hit northern and central areas hard, are spilling toward central Bangkok, where government organizations are concentrated. On Oct. 25, two domestic airlines canceled all their flights to and from Don Muang airport in northern Bangkok. As of the morning of Oct. 26, 373 people had died. Most of them drowned, but at least 17 were electrocuted. Some 2.93 million people have become flood victims.
As Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said a few days earlier, the situation is "extremely serious." A record high tide is to happen on Oct. 28 in the Gulf of Thailand, making release of floodwater into the gulf difficult. Weather reports are forecasting yet more rainfall, thus the damage from the floods is expected to expand. The Japanese government, the Japanese Red Cross Society, other Japanese organizations and ordinary Japanese citizens should consider what they can do to help Thai flood victims.
Three months of monsoon rains, said to be the heaviest in 50 years, have caused the floods. Global warming may play a role, but reports say man-made factors have also contributed to the scale of the disaster. In an attempt to invite foreign enterprises, Thailand has filled in canals and marshy grounds since the 1980s and developed industrial parks. Rapid industrialization and urbanization have greatly diminished these areas' natural capacity to hold water. In Ayutthaya province along the Chao Praya river, all five such factory parks have been submerged.
Apparently political conflict between factions supporting and opposing former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra (the brother of Yingluck Shinawatra) has prevented the government from taking well-coordinated initial actions to bring the floods under control. It is estimated that the floods will reduce Thailand's rice production this year by about 30 percent.
As seven industrial parks have been flooded, some 460 Japanese enterprises have sustained damage. Among them are the eight Japanese carmakers, which have suspended factory operations. Earlier they had suffered from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which damaged supply chains. The Japanese government should immediately take steps to help flood victims, which include Japanese nationals. In the longer term, it should provide Thailand with know-how and technology for flood control.
Bangkok Post : PM: Wash away political colour codes
PM wished away political colour codes
- Published: 28/10/2011 at 11:38 AM
- Online news:
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Friday said she wished the current flood crisis to help wash away the exising political colour codes.
She said she wanted to see people of all circles to cooperate to overcome the crisis and think no more of political conflicts.
Asked to comment on reported conflicts between politicians and local officials in some areas over how to cope with problems, Ms Yingluck said she throught they only held different opinions because they all want to work for the people.
On the proposal put forward to her by a group of engineers and water resource management experts that channels should be cut into five roads in the east to direct floodwater to flow more quickly out into the sea, the prime minister said she was still undecided whether to follow the advice.
The group, led by Ninnart Chaithirapinyo, vice-chairman of Toyota Motor Thailand, said the five roads were now blocking the northern runoff.
The roads are Pracha Ruam Jai, Rat Uthit Road, Suwinthawong Road, Nimitr Mai Road and Ruam Phattana Road.
The prime minister said she had assigned Transport Minister Sukampol Suwannathat to conduct a survey of the area covering the five roads along with representatives of the Royal Irrigation and Highway departments before deciding whether to do as proposed.
Possible damage to be made to the area and the people must be taken for consideration if the five roads are to be cut open to accelerate the flow of water, she said.
Ms Yingluck said one of the roads might be first cut open as an experiment to see if the opening made could really help the floodwater to flow more rapidly. If not, it would be useless to do so, she added.
She admitted that the attempt to drain water out toward the east and west of Bangkok had not been carried out at full capacity.
As for flooding in some parts of inner Bangkok, she said it is the responsibility of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to drain water out as quickly as possible.
TODAYonline | World | Drowning in prejudice
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A Buddhist monk wading through a flooded road outside the temple of the Emerald Buddha in Bangkok yesterday. AP
Drowning in prejudice
Floods are sharpening political divides, ethnic bias among Thais
by Sanitsuda Ekachai
04:46 AM Oct 28, 2011
External threats usually unite a quarrelling country. That is the rule of thumb, isn't it? Joint efforts to help ease the suffering of victims in times of natural disaster also usually trigger the best in ourselves, doesn't it?
I used to believe this was the case. I am not so sure any more. If a threat to survival is a unifying force, then there is a chance that the mega flood can help heal and wash away the deep and destabilising political divisiveness. But as our country slides deeper and deeper under water, I have to admit this is only wishful thinking.
Early on in the flood disaster when the lower north of Thailand was inundated, the public outpouring of flood relief assistance attested to the heart-warming humanity in a time of calamity. As the deluge moved closer to Bangkok, annihilating several provinces along the way, fingers started pointing in different directions.
The Royal Irrigation Department was damned for its dam water mismanagement, and for keeping the water level close to the brim despite the prospect of heavy rain that comes with the La Nina phenomenon.
The irrigation authorities, meanwhile, blamed flood control failure on local communities who built self-protection dykes and destroyed flood walls to the cost of other communities. They also complained about the lack of water pumps to do their work.
As the deluge intensified, Bangkok got rebuffed for staying dry at the expense of other provinces, amid louder calls for Bangkok to do its duty to help flood victims through arbitrary taxation, not voluntary donations.
As the captain of the ship, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her team are facing fierce criticism and public confidence eroded by inefficiency and untruths. Passing the buck and blaming the government is quite normal, you may argue. Not quite.
I have no academic surveys to back my observations. But from talking to friends and relatives, and by closely following discussions on the social media networks, the criticism is sharply divided along the lines of colour-coded politics.
Within the red camp, it is widely believed that the high level of water in dams was a political ploy of the Abhisit government to trigger a deluge and undermine the Yingluck administration. In this conspiracy theory, the fingers began pointing much, much higher, which has only served to enrage the yellow camp.
Meanwhile, the anti-Thaksin camp is inflamed by the domination of the reds in the despatching of flood relief items donated by the public - only to serve their red constituencies first and foremost. Some Puea Thai Members of Parliament faced the same complaint.
When the conflict over flood management between the Bangkok administration and the Yingluck government became public, my friends and relatives who belong to the red camp and cannot stand the sight of the Bangkok Governor, blamed the Democrat-led Bangkok administration for not pumping out the flood waters into the canals. They also refused to watch Thai PBS TV due to its being too critical of the government.
My friends and relatives on the yellow side, meanwhile, deride every word Ms Yingluck utters and even call her names. They believe that the irrigation officials cannot do their jobs because of intervention from the politicians who want to keep their red zones dry.
Every time Ms Yingluck is attacked, however, count on the prompt, protective response from her supporters who readily echo her appeal for unity, which is interpreted as abstaining from criticism.
The country's worst inundation in this century has clearly failed to dampen our prejudice, including ethnic prejudice.
Stories abound about food and water being withdrawn from the flood victims once it became known they were migrant workers. So are the stories about police extortion of frightened migrant workers fleeing the flood for not having identification papers ready and for leaving their designated work zones.
Water is traditionally believed to have the sacred power of washing away bad elements and ushering in a new, clean start. With the mega flood failing to ease our political and ethnic prejudices, the country's chances for a clean start have already been washed away. Bangkok Post
Sanitsuda Ekachai is assistant editor of the Bangkok Post.
Bangkok Post : After the flood ...
After the flood ...
- Published: 28/10/2011 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: Life
As I was sitting around the other day waiting for updates on the flood, Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra announced that the volume of water on the outskirts of the city was so massive that all 50 metropolitan districts would be inundated and that we could expect levels of 50cm to more than a metre, depending on our location and the time of day. Equally uplifting were some tips from Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra _ including how householders should deal with a power blackout _ plus remarks which seemed to indicate she was resigned to all the dykes being breached, sooner rather than later.
On another TV channel, energy expert Seri Suparatit was holding forth. His worst-case-scenario prognosis had already triggered a precautionary exodus, and he was still sticking firmly to his doomsday forecast. "What we predicted is mostly correct," he asserted. After that latest warning, at least three more of my friends packed up and fled our "doomed" city.
Drinking water has become a precious commodity in supermarkets, where instant noodles are more sought after than pasta. Profiteers have jacked up the price of sandbags, not to mention a host of essential food items. One person's crisis is another's opportunity, or so it appears.
Out on the frontline, villagers in Pathum Thani and Chachoengsao vigorously intervened to prevent state officials draining water from the metropolitan area into these adjoining provinces. Their homes were already flooded, but perhaps they feared that the inflow would made a bad situation worse. Or perhaps they just wanted to see justice being done, to feel that all citizens were getting equal treatment _ no matter how untimely their actions might have been. For these villagers, many of whom are affected by floods practically every year and who are usually left to fend for themselves, Bangkok is another world, a place where privileged people live high and dry while other "less significant" communities must sacrifice themselves because they've been designated as water-retention zones, so-called "monkey cheeks". I just hope that when these villagers see the deluge swamping Bangkok they'll feel that H20 has proved to be the great social equaliser.
The near-nationwide flooding has brought out something I have never seen before _ nor expected to see. I have seen selfless Thais helping one another, of course. But I have also witnessed the circulation of rumours and uncorroborated information, plus political game-playing at the dirtiest and most shameful level. The amount of confusion and panic this has created may make even the aftermath of the 2006 Boxing Day tsunami pale into insignificance. Then compare this behaviour to the way Japanese people reacted to the tsunami which struck their country and resulted in a nuclear crisis. If nothing else, this disaster confirms that we Thais are very far from attaining the grace-under-fire mentality displayed by so many Japanese during their recent emergency.
As the floodwaters reached the edge of the city, I was still reading commentary and political analyses blaming the situation on this or that political party or official body. The prime minister was heaped with as much scorn as the governor of Bangkok; former prime minister Abhisit and the man in Dubai didn't escape unscathed either. I was saddened to read that a member of the Puea Thai Party was trying to get parliament to endorse a dubious proposal by the Nitirat Group _ which wants to nullify all ramifications of the 2006 coup and abolish the current Constitution _ while millions of their constituents were struggling to find the basic necessities of life. How shameless can politicians be!
Two neighbouring provinces and parts of Bangkok were already submerged when I got the chance, earlier this week, to hear the views of hydrologists from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). Bangkokians have only had the threat of a deluge hanging over their heads for a little over two weeks now, but the people of the Central Plains have been living with the reality for a good deal longer. There's no doubt that many upcountry folks, fearful that their homes would be flooded, ignored the advice or deliberately thwarted the efforts of these water-drainage gurus, but there has also been a major failure by both RID and BMA experts in getting their message across to the general public, hence the dearth of cooperation.
Several local musicians have released songs intended to lift our spirits, reminding me of laudable efforts like We Are the World and Band Aid's Do They Know It's Christmas?. Some may question their motives, but at least these artists are doing something positive, something to bring a smile to our faces. On social-networking sites I have come across a host of practical tips for householders: how to make water potable and stop floodwater coming up through sewage pipes, for instance; advice on treating skin rashes and taking care of pets and elderly relatives. I see Bangkokians guarding their submerged homes, getting on with their lives, lips pursed; swallowing the hardships and trying to remain cheerful.
At my office, the secretary of a top executive is still turning up for work as usual, still managing to joke about her situation, even though her house _ the first home of her very own _ is under water. Still impeccably dressed in colourful clothes, hair and make-up perfect as always, she says she's glad she was able to rescue her collection of beautiful shoes and save many other items. "We were luckier than a lot of other people." She's already planning how to repair the flood damage and says she intends to visit Ikea to get herself a new shoe rack.
At home, my fearless 74-year-old aunt chuckled when I suggested that she should "migrate" somewhere. "I'll practise my swimming here" was her flippant response. My brother questioned my sanity when I advised him to temporarily relocate to another province. My niece reacted by accusing me of overreacting, saying I was a news addict and that I did "far too much facebooking".
As a reporter covering the environment beat, I consider myself lucky to have had the chance to meet so many ordinary people who have been forced by misfortune or natural disasters to take extraordinary measures; to do things they'd never have dreamed they were capable of accomplishing.
The floodwaters will probably enter many more homes in Bangkok this weekend. We'll get our feet wet and some of our belongings may be ruined. But this will also be a good opportunity for us to get to know ourselves _ and our compatriots _ better.
We may not be able to control the floodwaters. But we can choose the manner in which we respond to this situation.
Disasters bring out the best and the worst in people: Both public-spirited and opportunist individuals rise to the occasion; selfless volunteers respond to the call, but so, too, do villains _ not to mention the wise and the foolish.
But when it's all over and we sit down to review how this happened, we're certain to discover that there was a lot more to these floods than a mere mass of dirty water.
Anchalee Kongrut is a feature writer at the Bangkok Post.
It is either the lack of information or the overdose of it.
At the end, we know no more, we are sure of nothing...
Insight: Thai flood crisis puts swamped PM in firing line | Reuters
Insight: Thai flood crisis puts swamped PM in firing line
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif
By Martin Petty and Jason Szep
BANGKOK | Fri Oct 28, 2011 1:43am EDT
(Reuters) - In the early days of Thailand's devastating floods, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was seen knee-deep in muddy waters in wading boots, greeting evacuated villagers, surrounded by clicking cameras and appearing to take charge.
Fast-forward a month, as the worst floods in half a century close in on inner-city Bangkok, Yingluck's three-month-old government is under fire for badly managing the crisis -- from shoddy policy coordination to poor communication and conflicts with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.
With rising river waters this weekend threatening to breach dikes protecting the city of 12 million, her decisions and her mis-steps are fodder for critics and political pundits.
They could ruin her political prospects and those of her young government. Or they could embolden her by giving much-sought autonomy from her powerful brother -- the twice-elected and now-fugitive former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra.
Diplomats, independent analysts and those close to the 44-year-old businesswoman-turned-premier say she is likely to emerge from the crisis with her government intact, particularly if she spends heavily on reviving businesses and water-management infrastructure.
"It's true the public has misgivings. She could have taken a tougher approach. But she knows what to do to get us out of this situation," said a senior official in Yingluck's Puea Thai Party who requested anonymity.
"The recovery will give her a chance to prove herself as a leader."
The toll on life and business is rising in the country of 67 million, whose official slogan - "The Land of Smiles" - has been strained by one crisis after another in recent years, from bloody political unrest last year to the occupation of Bangkok's international airport by protesters in 2008 to a military coup in 2006 and the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.
The floods have killed at least 377 people since July with 2.2 million affected, including hundreds of thousands in Bangkok's submerged northern districts and in industrialized provinces.
Rice output in the world's biggest exporter for 2011/12 has fallen six million tonnes, or 24 percent, to 19 million tonnes. Annual GDP growth in the $319 billion economy has been pared to 2.6 percent this year from 4.1 percent.
People are stranded in flooded homes, without food, water, electricity and, in many cases, insurance. Cases of water-borne sickness, drowning and electrocution have been rising.
Crocodiles and snakes have been seen in streets usually thronged by noodle vendors and shoppers. Boats and cars share the once-congested highways. Housing estates have been transformed into urban reservoirs.
The vast Chao Phraya river that winds past glittering temples, palaces, embassies and high-end hotels near the central business district is bulging from record water levels. Bangkok is on edge with high tide approaching, many of its sleek office towers and shopping plazas fortified by makeshift sandbag barriers.
EYE OF STORM
At the center of the crisis is Yingluck, a political neophyte whose critics deride her as incompetent and indecisive.
She has been mocked for wearing designer boots in muddy flood waters and her government has been accused of failing to warn people and businesses of the gravity of the disaster and trying to suppress bad news -- charges she vehemently denies.
The government's Flood Relief Operations Center (FROC) hasn't helped. One minister at the center, for instance, told residents in Bangkok's fringe provinces to evacuate. Within hours, another insisted the situation was under control.
Thais have been told Bangkok would escape the floods. Now, they are told the capital could be swamped for a month. Many have given up listening.
"People now don't trust the leadership of Yingluck and the government. They are hoarding food and water and now they are relying on social media for their information," said Kan Yuanyong, director of Siam Intelligence Unit, a think-tank.
In recent appearances before reporters, Yingluck has looked exhausted, at times on the verge of tears with a tremor in her voice -- in stark contrast to her seemingly boundless energy and confidence on the campaign trail.
But it's not just Yingluck's image at stake, it's Thailand's. The rise of industrial zones over the past 30 years has transformed a country once built around rice paddies and beach resorts into regional hub of low-cost manufacturing, a critical cog in the global supply chain.
Seven industrial estates in Bangkok's fringe provinces of Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Ayutthaya have been forced to shut because of the floods, putting 650,000 people temporarily out of work and causing rippling disruptions to global manufacturers - from automobiles to disk drives.
Toyota Corp has been forced to cut North American auto production. About 1,800 Japanese manufacturers operate in Thailand and several of them, including Canon Inc, Pioneer and Sony Corp, have suffered interruptions to production or distribution.
Lenovo Group Ltd, the world's No.2 PC maker, said the floods would lead to constraints on hard-disk drive supplies in the period to March, one of dozens of major companies affected by the crisis.
The confidence of those multinational companies is as crucial to Yingluck's political fortunes as settling growing unease among voters.
The challenge, say political analysts, is whether she can engineer a speedy recovery that compensates industry, businesses and affected communities, restores public confidence and builds the infrastructure needed to prevent a repeat of the disaster.
"What is important is how we handle this long term, because we have to give full assurances to foreign investors that this can be handled better," Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala told Reuters.
OLD DIVIDES
A 400 billion baht ($13 billion) budget deficit has been targeted for this fiscal year from October 1, up from 350 billion baht previously, to help with the recovery.
"Our irrigation system was designed for providing water for agriculture and water for (home) use, as well as for generating electricity. But we have to now aim more for storm drainage, managing the flood deluge. This will be a more important priority," Thirachai said.
Flood-recovery spending plans are likely to sail through parliament with Puea Thai and its coalition partners holding two thirds of the lower house, but there could be plenty of stumbling blocks.
Yingluck's political opponents and parts of the military and establishment that largely back the opposition Democrat Party are likely to use the crisis to try to undermine the government by generating public opposition.
Already, those divisions have resurfaced as authorities and politicians square off along the fault lines that have polarized Thailand -- Bangkok's urban elite who broadly back the Democrats against the supporters of Thaksin, including the red-shirt protesters who occupied swathes of Bangkok last year and fought troops in battles that killed 91 people.
Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra, a strident Democrat up for re-election next year, has pledged cooperation with Yingluck but his public comments often undermine her. At news conferences, he has stated the capital is his priority and that he -- and no one else -- can direct its people to safety.
"Please believe me and only me," he said.
Yingluck's reluctance to declare emergency rule has also stoked speculation she is resisting delegating power to the military, including the top generals who had been openly hostile to her party before the July election -- and who had helped engineer the coup that toppled her brother in 2006.
"It is haphazard," Korn Chatikavanij, deputy leader of the Democrats, said of the government's ability to manage the crisis. "Confidence is a major issue. For confidence, there needs to be transparency and there needs to be clarity of information."
"SILVER LINING"
The costs of financing the recovery are unlikely to be of such a scale to directly trigger a credit-rating downgrade of Thailand, said Philip McNicholas and Andrew Colquhoun, Hong Kong-based credit analysts at ratings-agency Fitch Ratings.
But they will highlight other potential problems with Yingluck's populist-brand of policymaking, including the strain on state finances from big-spending policies that were crucial in winning rural and urban-poor votes in July's election.
Big spending could, however, help her win back the confidence of voters next year, stimulating the economy at a crucial time just as Europe and the United States teeter near recession.
"When the waters recede, there may be a silver lining for the Yingluck government," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "It will have an opportunity to come up with legitimate recovery efforts and fiscal stimuli across the board.
"But if she fumbles and stumbles, she will still be around after the floods but it will all be downhill."
FACTBOX-Thai floods crimp global supply chains | Reuters
FACTBOX-Thai floods crimp global supply chains
Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:25am EDT
Traffic clogged roads out of Bangkok on Friday as thousands of people fled ahead of a high tide that may worsen floods that have inundated factories and prompted foreign governments to warn citizens to stay away from one of Asia's biggest cities.
The country's worst flooding in half a century, caused in part by unusually heavy monsoon rain, has killed 373 people since mid-July and disrupted the lives of nearly 2.5 million, until now mostly in the north and central provinces.
The flooding has started to affect production of everything from cars to computer disk drives because Thailand has in recent years become a manufacturing base for Japanese and American carmakers and global technology companies.
Seven industrial estates in Ayutthaya, Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani provinces bordering Bangkok have been closed, causing billions of dollars of damage, disrupting international supply chains for industry.
Below is a look at some of the affected companies and products:
HONDA
Honda Motor Co has postponed the launch of a new model of its Life minicar due to difficulties in obtaining parts made in flood-hit Thailand, a company spokeswoman said on Thursday. Honda said it halted car production in Malaysia on Tuesday due to disruption of component supplies from Thailand.
TOYOTA
Toyota Motor Corp said on Thursday it plans to cut output in North America due to the impact of the Thai floods on its supply chain, and will halt production there on Oct. 29. Toyota may run out of key Thai-made components this month, as the floods disrupt supply of about 100 auto parts, the Nikkei business daily said.
LSI
LSI Corp said it expects its hard drive business to dip over 10 percent sequentially due to Thailand floods and said some of its subcontractors in Thailand had been affected by the floods. The company also said it faces exposure in its packaging and testing divisions due to the flooding.
DIGI INTERNATIONAL
Digi International Inc , a chip maker, said the flooding had affected the facilities of its contract manufacturer there and said all operations in Thailand were currently suspended. The company said it is assessing the potential financial impact of the production constraints and said it believes its revenue and gross margin will be impacted in the first quarter of fiscal 2012.
LENOVO GROUP
Lenovo Group Ltd , the world's No.2 PC maker, said on Wednesday that it expected some constraints on hard disk drive supplies through the first quarter of next year after severe floods in Thailand crimped global supply.
FUJITSU
Fujitsu Ltd , Japan's largest IT services vendor, said on Wednesday that disruption to hard-disk drive supply caused by floods in Thailand will have a large impact on its PC business in the October-December period, and it was hoping for a recovery in the following quarter. The company said it would tap its own HDD inventory and those of suppliers including Seagate and Toshiba to ease the impact.
NIPPON STEEL
Nippon Steel Corp , the world's No.4 steelmaker, expects its steel shipments to decline by around 300,000 tonnes due to floods in Thailand, which would hurt its profits by around 5 billion yen ($66 million), a company executive said on Wednesday. The company also projected its crude steel output to total around 15.5 million tonnes in October-March, largely steady from 15.53 million tonnes in April-September.
AUTOLIV
Autoliv , the world's leading maker of airbags and seat belts, trimmed its sales and profit margin forecasts on Tuesday in the face of an uncertain economic climate and component shortages from flood-hit Thai suppliers.
TESCO
Tesco , the world's No.3 retailer, has closed more than 30 stores in Thailand as a result of the worst flooding the country has seen in 50 years, it said on Tuesday. The British supermarket group said the affected stores were mostly smaller outlets and represented just over 3 percent of its selling space in the country. Only three of the company's hypermarkets were closed, a spokesman added.
CANON
Canon Inc on Tuesday became the first major Japanese firm to cut its annual outlook due to Thai flooding and the strong yen. Rivals Sony Corp and Nikon Corp were also forced to close plants. Canon said the Thai disaster would likely cut annual sales by 50 billion yen ($657 million) and operating profit by 20 billion yen for the financial year to the end of December 2011.
Floodwater Threatens the Historic Heart of Bangkok
By Robert Horn / Bangkok
Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011
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Floodwaters reach a shop selling statues in Bangkok on Oct. 24, 2011
Paula Bronstein / Getty Images
Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej asked late Thursday that no special measures be taken to protect royal palaces from advancing floodwaters, as the deluge pressed closer to the heart of the capital. The military, meanwhile, promised to deploy 50,000 soldiers around Bangkok to try to divert water and help with evacuations. Regional officials have already urged Bangkok residents to leave the city for their own safety this weekend, when high tides and a surge of water from northern provinces are expected. Many residents have already left, leaving Bangkok's famously clogged roadways nearly empty.
Floodwaters were already knee-high outside the Temple of the Emerald Buddha and the old Grand Palace on the banks of the Chao Phraya river on Friday morning. Several old temples and palaces line the river that snakes down from the inundated central provinces, through the capital and out to the Gulf of Thailand. In Nonthaburi, just north of the city, Buddhist monks and residents at a riverside temple caught one of dozens of crocodiles that escaped from farms upcountry when the flooding began last month. Meanwhile, water surged over floodwalls along a canal in Sai Mai, a district in northeastern Bangkok, prompting Governor Sukhumband Paribatr to order residents to evacuate immediately. The governor has said that all of Bangkok can expect to be flooded by early next week.(See photos flooding north of Bangkok.)
King Bhumibol, 83, has been living at Siriraj Hospital, also on the banks of the Chao Phraya river, since falling ill in September 2009. The neighborhood surrounding the hospital was under 2-to-3 ft. (60 to 90 cm) of water Friday. The King communicated his desire through Army Commander in Chief General Prayuth Chanocha that the palaces be left to flood and priority be given to helping the nearly 2.5 million Thais affected by the disaster. According to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 373 people in Thailand have perished, more than 100,000 are living in shelters, 700,000 are in need of medical assistance and 28 of the country's 76 provinces are inundated. Floods have also affected neighboring Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, where cumulatively 350 people have died. Flash floods have also been reported in Burma.
Bangkok's palaces, however, are unlikely to be left unprotected either by the military or the government, as many are considered national and architectural treasures. Thailand was once a nation where the main arteries of transport were rivers and canals, and scores of important temples, palaces and other significant buildings were erected adjacent to the Chao Phraya and other waterways. Decades of development — during which canals were filled to make roads, forests razed, and housing and industrial estates built on floodplains — have been cited as factors that have contributed to the disaster. Others include mismanagement of dams and irrigation systems, along with weather extremes believed to be associated with global warming.(Read about Bangkok bracing for flooding.)
The King's gesture did little to quiet the bickering and blame casting between government and opposition politicians and their supporters, even as soldiers, Buddhist monks and thousands of volunteers worked to try to shore up dikes and deliver food and other relief supplies to those in need. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, elected in July, has come under withering criticism because of the confusing and conflicting information issued by the government's Flood Relief Operations Center. The center, located at Don Muang domestic airport in northern Bangkok, is now surrounded by water.
Videos and photos have also appeared on the Internet of relief supplies from the government and public donations being delivered in trucks with banners bearing the name of Yingluck's older brother Thaksin Shinawatra and other politicians from the ruling party, sparking charges they are using the disaster for political gain. Thaksin is a former Prime Minister ousted in a coup in 2006 who is living in self-imposed exile abroad rather than serving a prison sentence for a corruption conviction. The opposition Democrat Party has also come under attack after reports circulated that party leader and former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had flown his family to the Maldives.
The government has promised an investigation into the causes of the flooding once the situation returns to normal. Assurances have been made to foreign investors that the government will formulate an effective plan to protect factories and industrial estates from future floods. Friday's Bangkok Post newspaper said a report from the Office of the Auditor General found that, despite governments spending more than $5 billion from 2005 to '09 on water-management projects around the country, most were ineffective and the country still lacked a unified water-management plan.
Conflicting flood info frustrates private sector - The Nation
Conflicting flood info frustrates private sector
Nalin Viboonchart
The Nation October 28, 2011 5:07 am
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Political rivalry between BMA, govt blamed for confusion
The private sector has complained that it is confused by inconsistent information from the central government and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), saying the political conflict between the two and poor management are making the flood problem worse.
BMA officials led by Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra yesterday met with a number of business representatives as well as the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC). The meeting was meant to explain the BMA's measures to drain flood waters from the city and listen to |the private sector's reaction to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's warning to Bangkokians to evacuate.
Sukhumbhand said the BMA had a good drainage system, which could release flood waters at the rate of 130 million cubic metres per day or 1,600 cubic metres per second. If there is no major problem such as the collapse of flood barriers, the BMA should be able to expel the water into the Gulf of Thailand, with little impact to inner Bangkok.
However, he admitted that the BMA did not have any special measures to protect the central business district, insisting that the drainage system was sufficient to mitigate the flood impact.
He said it was difficult to predict where the floods would hit next. Although the central government has said all areas of Bangkok will be flooded, the BMA thinks differently, believing that some districts will be safe.
Sukhumbhand said the BMA could manage the floodways, canals and the drainage system within Bangkok itself, but management of the situation outside the city was the responsibility of the central government and state agencies such as the Royal Irrigation Department.
Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, vice chairman of the TCC, said that after he listened to the BMA's position, he realised that the conflict between the central government and the metropolitan administration still existed. The information from both parties conflicts and so is untrustworthy. Thus businesses have to assess the information by themselves.
"For example, the government said the flood waters would hit all 50 districts of Bangkok, but the Bangkok governor does not think so. This different evaluation confuses people, so they don't know whether they should evacuate or not," he said.
He said the business sector had prepared itself to deal with the floods. Companies have constructed floodwalls.
The role of the government and the BMA is to have a concrete plan to release the flood waters after they hit inner Bangkok.
"If the government and the BMA didn't have a political conflict, flood-water management would be done better. The longer the floods persist in Bangkok, the more loss to |the country's economy," Pornsilp said.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (Oct 28) will meet today to discuss the relief measures.
Chai Srivikorn, president of the Ratchaprasong Square Trade Association (RSTA), said the government and the BMA did not have concrete plans to drain the water. He said he did not understand why some effective floodways that are normally used to release water from Bangkok are not being used at this time, and why the government and the BMA could not evaluate the flood levels and when the water will hit inner Bangkok.
He said the government was not outlining the real situation, or offering any back-up plan, so neither the private sector nor individuals could plan in advance whether they should evacuate or what other measures to take.
12-HOUR WARNING
Meanwhile, the 12-hour flood warning planned by the BMA seems not to be enough to allow hotel operators to get their guests to safety, Chai said.
The RSTA represents the five-star hotels and luxury shopping malls in the Ratchaprasong area such as Gaysorn Plaza and CentralWorld and the InterContinental, Grand Hyatt Erawan and Four Seasons hotels. This business area last year was seriously affected by the political violence as red-shirt protesters occupied it in April and May, paralysing its tourism businesses. Chai said the businesses in Ratchaprasong lost about Bt5 billion last year because of the political turmoil.
Now hit by another crisis, the business members of the RSTA insist that they will not lay off workers. They have their own measures to prevent the floods hitting their buildings. At Gaysorn Plaza for example, if the flood level reaches 50 centimetres, the management team will evaluate whether to close the mall, Chai said.
Chatrchai Tuongratnaphan, executive consultant for the Thai Retailers Association, said there were still shortages of instant noodles, drinking water, canned fish, and eggs. The supplies imported from neighbouring countries will enter the Thai market by the middle of next week.
He said the government should say exactly which districts of Bangkok will be submerged so that retailers can plan transport.
Tulip_Oum Tulip Naksompop
sticker on donated lunch box said "with love and care from Thaksin Shinnawatr" yfrog.com/h6jv2etj (via facebook.com)
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There was a bit of a kerfuffle over this today....
12.11 Floating toilets donated by Japan now have the name of thai politician on them http://twitpic.com/76sw0x TR [at]NationChannel24
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(Btw, the top 2 letters are PT....)
The image has since been deleted (but I saved it)...mysteriously.......was it set up? Who knows....
But there were some less than happy responses from some Japanese folks....
^ & ^^.
Absolutely disgusting & shameless if true. :(