Bangkok Post : Sanan warns of civil war if rifts persist
Sanan warns of civil war if rifts persist
Next govt urged to pursue process of reconciliationPolitical stability will continue to be elusive after the July 3 elections if national reconciliation is not pursued in earnest by the next government, says Chartthaipattana Party's chief adviser Sanan Kachornprasart.
- Published: 11/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: News
Maj Gen Sanan is proposing a concerted effort to clear the air in Thailand's splintered society as a way of heading off possible post-election violence and opening the way for stability under the next government.
He said that if he were to become prime minister, which he admits is unlikely, he would embark on a plan to heal the divides in society.
Sanan: Overcome the differences
Without it, the new administration is doomed to be short-lived, especially if either the Pheu Thai Party or Democrat Party rises to power, he told the Bangkok Post during a special interview on the general election.
"Reconciliation takes time to achieve. But if we don't do anything at all, a civil war may erupt after the election. And this time around the body count may be higher," Maj Gen Sanan said.
He said his bleak outlook on the political situation was based on some crucial factors.
Army Commander Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha's recent remarks about "mob rule and stability" were significant, he said.
In the army chief's opinions, a political party that rises to power through mob rule is not stable and can expect its power to be usurped.
Maj Gen Sanan seems to have no doubts that Pheu Thai will win the most seats in the election.
Given its strong popularity, the party will grab between 210-240 seats out of 500, he predicted.
But he is not so sure that Pheu Thai, which counts among its supporters the red-shirt movement, can form a government and run the country.
Even if the Pheu Thai party succeeds in forming a coalition government, its amnesty plan for deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be a thorn in its side, eroding stability, he said.
Citing his talks with Thaksin, he noted that the ex-prime minister was not likely to accept the jail term imposed on him by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions.
"An attempt to seek an amnesty is likely to spark a new protest by those who don't support Thaksin," he said.
Maj Gen Sanan said there was a distant hope that the Democrat Party could win the elections and the mandate to set up a government. "The party's track record is that it has never won an election after being in government," he said.
"It may muddle through by joining hands with smaller parties to form a government, but that's not easy."
While Maj Gen Sanan does not rule out the chance of himself being prime minister for the purposes of promoting reconciliation, Chartthaipattana Party's chief adviser said that the chance was slim.
He said that if the Pheu Thai and Democrats can join to form a government, peace and order would be restored.
"There would be no need to worry about small parties which will have to serve as the opposition. In practice, there is not much the opposition could do," he said.
Reconciliation has been on Maj Gen Sanan's lips following last year's political violence at Ratchaprasong intersection.
He has meet red shirts, yellow shirts and politicians to sell his idea.
He also testified on behalf of eight co-leaders of the red-shirt movement who were detained on several charges including terrorism.
His testimony is believed to have led to their temporary release after they were held in jail for nine months.
He is also said to be on good terms with some red-shirt leaders, including Natthawut Saikua.
Maj Gen Sanan said he was sure he would be able to drum up support from politicians, the business community and pressure groups of different colours to back his reconciliation plan and resolve the political woes.
Maj Gen Sanan said that he would begin talks with parties about his reconciliation plan after the election.
"For Pheu Thai, talks with Thaksin should be enough.
"With the Democrat Party, I need some time alone with Abhisit. We have different ideas about reconciliation," he said.
Reconciliation is now being promoted as the Chartthaipattana's flagship platform for the July 3 polls.
His party would discuss how reconciliation could be achieved on June 21.