Thread: A new PM for Japan

Ex-defense chief Ishiba elected Japan ruling party leader

Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on Friday in a runoff vote, defeating economic security minister Sanae Takaichi to become Japan's next prime minister.

Japan’s ruling party picks Shigeru Ishiba to become next PM | Japan | The Guardian

Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran moderate, will next week be installed as Japan’s prime minister after he was elected leader of the governing Liberal Democratic party (LDP).

The 67-year-old, a former defence minister, beat his rightwing rival Sanae Takaichi, who was attempting to become the country’s first female prime minister, by 215 votes to 194 in a runoff election at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Friday.

The vote was triggered when the outgoing prime minister, Fumio Kishida, announced he would not seek re-election as LDP president amid damaging fundraising scandals and low approval ratings.

Citing the need for new blood after a bruising few months for his party, Kishida had said that his successor must lead a “new LDP”.

In brief comments to lawmakers before the runoff, Ishiba, who had described the contest as his “final political battle”, called for a fairer and kinder Japan.

“We will put an end to the widespread distrust in the LDP,” he said. “Once the election is over, we will put our hearts into protecting Japan, local areas, rules and the people of Japan.”

Despite his popularity among the public, another candidate, Shinjiro Koizumi, who at 43 would have become Japan’s youngest postwar prime minister, was knocked out of the race in the first round of voting, along with six others.

Koizumi, the son of the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, may have spooked the party with a promise to hold a snap election if elected leader.

Having been chosen to steer the party out of the doldrums, Ishiba must address growing anger over rising living costs and navigate a volatile regional security environment fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

A defence expert who builds plastic models of warplanes and ships in his free time, Ishiba has proposed an Asian version of Nato and voiced strong support for Taiwanese democracy. He has also called for the creation of a disaster-management agency in a country that is often struck by powerful earthquakes and typhoons.

The result has dealt a significant blow to the political legacy of the assassinated former leader Shinzo Abe, with whom Ishiba often disagreed. Takaichi was a disciple of Abe’s economic programme and shared his revisionist views on Japan’s wartime history.

Tobias Harris, the founder of the Japan Foresight political risk advisory firm, described the race as “a battle for the soul of the LDP, pitting Takaichi, Abe’s intellectual successor on economic and foreign policy, against Ishiba, an idealistic reformer who fundamentally rejects not just Abenomics but much of his foreign policy thinking and his approach to politics”.

Takaichi’s stock had risen in the years since her first unsuccessful bid for the LDP leadership in 2021 – a contest won by Kishida. She attempted to fill the ideological vacuum left by Abe’s violent death in 2022, and benefited in Friday’s vote from securing the support of Taro Aso, an influential former prime minister.

But the wait for Japan’s first female prime minister continues. Women comprise just 10.3% of the lower house of parliament, ranking 163rd for female representation among 190 countries in a report by the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union in April.



Shigeru Ishiba is the new Prime Minister of Japan

Japan’s incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba to call snap election – reports

The 67-year-old will seek an early public mandate after seeing off a rightwing challenge to become the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic party

Japan’s incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba is poised to call a snap election for the end of the month, according to media reports, days after he promised to lift his party’s dwindling fortunes and “put a smile” back on the faces of the public.

Ishiba, a moderate who saw off a rightwing challenge on Friday to become the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP), will be approved as prime minister in parliament on Tuesday and appoint his cabinet later the same day.

The 67-year-old former defence minister, who won the party leadership race at his fifth attempt, will try to seek an early public mandate on 27 October, the public broadcaster NHK and several newspapers said on Monday, more than a year before an election is due.

Ishiba has said only that he would call a lower house election “as soon as possible”, but observers believe he wants to go to voters quickly, possibly to capitalise on his recent party victory and to give the main opposition Constitutional Democratic party as little time as possible to prepare under its new leader, Yoshihiko Noda.

Ishiba could turn to one of his erstwhile leadership rivals in an attempt to revive the LDP’s fortunes after months of fallout from a fundraising scandal.

Shinjiro Koizumi, who was knocked out of the contest after finishing third in the first round of voting, is expected to be made head of the party’s election committee, effectively making him the face of the campaign.

Although the 43-year-old Koizumi, the son of the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, struggled to mount a credible challenge for the LDP presidency, he is popular among voters.

Ishiba’s main rival for the LDP presidency, the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi, reportedly turned down the offer of a senior party post, the Kyodo news agency said, underlining the difficulties he faces in reuniting the party ahead of the rumoured general election.

Takaichi, who lost to Ishiba in the second and final round of voting, was vying to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Reports suggest that the most senior posts in Ishiba’s cabinet will go to party heavyweights, including the former prime minister Yoshihide Suga, who is believed to have backed him in the leadership race.

Ishiba is expected to unveil measures to help low-income households through the cost of living crisis and, on the foreign policy front, to pursue the creation of an “Asian Nato” to counter threats from China and North Korea.

Japan’s incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba to call snap election – reports | Japan | The Guardian

Japan PM Ishiba dissolves lower house for Oct. 27 election

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dissolved Japan's House of Representatives on Wednesday, setting the stage for an Oct. 27 general election to seek a vote of confidence before putting his leadership in reforming his scandal-tainted ruling party to the real test.

The dissolution of the 465-member lower house came just eight days after Ishiba took office, making it the fastest in postwar Japan. He fended off last-ditch efforts by the opposition to derail what they saw as his hasty move by submitting a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet.

Official campaigning is set to begin on Oct. 15 for the first lower house election since 2021. The focus is on whether the Liberal Democratic Party, headed by Ishiba, can retain its majority in the more powerful chamber, political analysts said.

As lower house speaker Fukushiro Nukaga announced the dissolution, chamber members stood up and shouted "banzai," a customary way of acknowledging their current term has come to an end, and they now face the uncertainty of the upcoming election.

"The objective of this election is to gain public approval of our efforts to fundamentally change the direction of Japanese society," Ishiba said at a press conference.

Ishiba acknowledged that the winds are blowing against the party, but he was confident the LDP together with its junior coalition partner Komeito would win a majority of the 465 seats up for grabs in the forthcoming election.

The coalition held more than 280 seats -- around 250 for the LDP and about 30 for Komeito, well above the majority threshold of 233. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, meanwhile, held nearly 100 seats.

In a one-on-one debate in parliament that preceded the dissolution, CDPJ chief Yoshihiko Noda lashed out at Ishiba for trying to deflect voter attention from the issue of "secret money," referring to revelations that LDP members had failed to report political funds properly.

"You are dissolving the house early," thinking that the LDP "can secure a victory during the honeymoon period," when new leaders tend to enjoy an initial rise in public support, Noda, a former Japanese prime minister, told Ishiba.

Under Japan's Constitution, prime ministers have the authority to dissolve the chamber at their discretion.

During the campaign for the LDP leadership, Ishiba had said he would dissolve the lower house only after giving opposition lawmakers sufficient time to question him in parliament. His decision to pursue dissolution, made known even before he assumed the premiership on Oct. 1, prompted a strong backlash from them, who viewed it as a disregard for the Constitution.

The CDPJ has been urging the government to draft an extra budget for the current fiscal year through next March to support recovery efforts in areas affected by an earthquake and heavy rain in central Japan.

After the LDP elected Ishiba, known as a lone wolf who was seen as an intraparty opposition force, the ruling party saw an increase in public support, according to a Kyodo News poll released earlier this month.

But the approval rate for his Cabinet, at around 50 percent, is not high, compared with his recent predecessors, underscoring the difficult task ahead for him to win over voters in the key election.

The LDP withdrew its official endorsements on Wednesday for 12 members implicated in the political funds scandal, with all but one of them from a now-disbanded intraparty faction led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who once exerted significant influence over the party.

Voters want the government to prioritize steps to support the economy as Japanese households are still struggling to cope with rising prices of everyday goods. When the effect of inflation is taken into account, many have yet to feel the benefits of recent pay hikes and the government plans to draw up fresh relief measures in the coming weeks.

The CDPJ is aiming to siphon off LDP support among moderate conservatives who are frustrated with the ruling party's handling of the scandal and eventually bring about a change of government.

Still, a fractious opposition bloc would give a boost to the ruling parties, according to the analysts. The prospects of the opposition parties joining forces, possibly by unifying candidates to avoid splitting the vote, look dim with little time to prepare.

For Ishiba's desire for parliament to initiate a proposal to revise the Constitution, it needs to secure support from two thirds of the chamber as well as the House of Councillors.

Where does Shigeru Ishiba stand on the climate issue?

While his views on defense garnered most of the headlines during last month’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership campaign, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stands on energy-related issues is the focal point for climate experts and activists.

The early indications are that Japan’s new leader may depart from some, but not all, of his predecessor’s policies.

In some respects, Ishiba’s views on how to deal with the crucial issue of climate change and meet emissions targets seem mostly in line with those of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, especially with the use of nuclear power.

On the other hand, Ishiba appears to be charting a different course on renewable energy, especially with a nascent effort to expand an energy source Japan has in abundance but has yet to really utilize: geothermal power.

If it survives the challenge of the Oct. 27 Lower House election — which is not a guarantee after mixed polling results in the early days of the prime minister’s tenure — the Ishiba administration won’t have long to formulate its climate policies before facing the international spotlight.

The annual United Nations climate conference is taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from Nov. 11 to 22, giving Ishiba and his Cabinet — or their successors — a little over two weeks after the election to prepare for a stage on which Japan’s fossil fuel-friendly climate policies have been the subject of domestic and international criticism.

The focus of this year’s COP is expected to be on green finance and the provision of funds for emerging economies to move away from fossil fuel technologies and into renewable energy in order to help meet the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement, which aims to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius — and ideally 1.5 C.

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Japan election campaign kicks off; 465 lower house seats up for grabs

Campaigning for Japan's general election officially began on Tuesday, giving candidates 12 days before voters go to the polls and collectively choose the party or parties that will form the next government on Oct. 27.

Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 will go to directly elected politicians from single-seat constituencies. Another 176 winners will come through a proportional representation system that divides the country into 11 constituencies. More than 1,300 candidates are expected to run, up from 1,051 in the last such election in 2021

The longtime ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito do not have high hopes, judging by their modest goal of maintaining a majority in the chamber, or 233 seats. As of Oct. 9, the day of the lower house's dissolution, the LDP alone had 256 seats, with the combined LDP-Komeito total being 288.

"I am well aware that this election will be extremely tough," Prime Minister and LDP President Shigeru Ishiba said during a news conference last week when he first set the "victory line."

The LDP's headwinds are its own making, whipped up by political fundraising scandals in which dozens of party members failed to properly disclose funds they had raised through political activities.

After the LDP presidential election in September, Ishiba was appointed prime minister on Oct. 1, dissolving the Diet's House of Representatives, or lower house, eight days later. "We ask for the trust of the people," Ishiba said, "and with their support, we hope to give a strong push to the policies of the new government."

More than a dozen candidates alleged to have been involved in the fundraising scandals either did not receive official endorsements from the LDP or voluntarily withdrew their candidacies.

Ishiba chose a fish market in the city of Iwaki in Fukushima prefecture, to start the campaign on Tuesday, and reiterated apologies he has made since taking office regarding the funds scandal.

"We will reflect deeply on the issues of 'politics and money' and [some LDP members'] failure to report party income," he said. "And we pledge to do our utmost to prevent a recurrence of these problems."

The largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which held 98 lower house seats when the chamber was dissolved, intends to win enough to put the LDP and Komeito in the minority, campaigning under the slogan "A change of government is the greatest political reform." Yoshihiko Noda, elected as CDP leader in September, has criticized Ishiba's decision to call the snap election as a move to "cover up" the funding scandal.

Japan's ruling LDP at risk of losing majority in election, Nikkei poll shows

Japan's ruling party may lose its sole majority in the lower house for the first time in 15 years, the Nikkei newspaper said on Thursday, citing its poll ahead of the Oct. 27 election.

The Liberal Democratic Party may not reach the 233 seats it needs for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber, Nikkei said, based on polling estimates for directly elected candidates and those chosen by proportional representation.

It would be the first time the LDP did not have sole control of the lower house since 2009. It could still form a coalition government with its long-standing partner Komeito.

The poll, conducted by phone along with the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, was carried out nationwide on Tuesday and Wednesday, garnering 165,820 valid responses, Nikkei said.

A poll by broadcaster TBS released on Wednesday showed the LDP may lose about 30 seats, while Komeito may shed a small number. A Kyodo poll published on Thursday also pointed to challenges for the LDP to secure a majority.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, setting up the snap election.

Ishiba became leader last month after his predecessor Fumio Kishida ended his three-year premiership due to public distrust stemming from a string of funding scandals involving LDP politicians.

reuters.com

Japan’s PM Ishiba meets with families of N. Korea abductee

Ishiba said he planned to open a liaison office in Tokyo and Pyongyang to help resolve the abduction issue. However, Takuya Yokota, representative of the association, strongly opposed the idea.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with the families of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea and vowed Thursday to find an early resolution to the issue.

“The abduction issue is one of the starting points of my political activities,” said Ishiba at the start of the meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office. “The government will work on the issue.”

Thursday’s meeting was the first time Ishiba met with the members of the Association of Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea since taking office.

Last month, Ishiba said he planned to open a liaison office in Tokyo and Pyongyang to help resolve the abduction issue. However, Takuya Yokota, representative of the association, strongly opposed the idea.

“I’m strongly against it,” said Yokota, whose older sister Megumi was abducted by North Korea when she was 13 in 1977. “It will only give [North Korea] means to buy time and bring the issue to a close.”

Yokota then called for an immediate and comprehensive return of all abductees.

FOCUS: PM Ishiba's drastic wage hike push may hurt small firms in Japan

Takayuki Okuyama, president of a plastic parts company with nine employees, questions whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's pledge to significantly raise Japan's national average wage is the right move, as he believes such a goal would squeeze small businesses like his.

Okuyama, 48, leads Nissindenki Co. in Tokyo's Ota Ward -- home to more than 3,000 small-sized manufacturers -- and has raised his workers' salaries nearly 3 percent each spring. In contrast, major companies recently implemented salary increases of more than 5 percent, their highest in over three decades.

"As I'm responsible for protecting my employees, I want to increase their salaries in line with the social trend," he said, adding, "But with our business conditions unchanged, what can I do?"

Amid higher food and energy costs due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as well as a weak yen, which pushes up import prices, Ishiba's predecessor, Fumio Kishida, pledged to achieve salary hikes that outpace rising prices, aiming to raise Japan's average minimum hourly wage to 1,500 yen ($10) by the mid-2030s.

Ishiba took office in early October and vowed to continue Kishida's economic policies. He even brought forward the timing of achieving the wage hike goal to the end of the 2020s.

"It appears to be extremely challenging to meet the target, which requires salaries to rise more than 7 percent annually. Potential side effects, including backlash from companies, cannot be overlooked," said Takuya Hoshino, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

The Liberal Democratic Party, led by Ishiba, forwent mentioning any specific timeline or wage increase target in its promises for the Oct. 27 House of Representatives election, seemingly to avoid potential opposition from small businesses, which are already struggling to secure funds to raise salaries and retain workers.

The leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has also set a wage increase target of the same level. But the party, which receives support from labor unions, also did not mention when to achieve it with several other opposition parties following suit.

As the government seeks to establish a positive cycle of wage and price hikes and ensure an exit from Japan's chronic deflation, major companies agreed to increase monthly pay by an average 5.58 percent in annual labor-management negotiations this spring, surpassing 5 percent for the first time since 1991, according to the Japan Business Federation.

Attention has turned to whether this trend will spread to small and medium-sized companies, which have employed an estimated around 70 percent of workforce in the country.

Japan's average minimum hourly wage for fiscal 2024 came to 1,055 yen, effective from October. It marked an increase of record 51 yen, or 5.1 percent, from the previous year.

To achieve Ishiba's goal of 1,500 yen by 2029, the average minimum wage needs to keep rising 7.3 percent every year, according to an estimate by Tomoya Suzuki, a researcher at the NLI Research Institute.

But many smaller businesses have been already under pressure to raise salaries, largely to prevent employees from leaving for better conditions.

The number of bankruptcies due to lack of employees increased 1.8-fold in the April-September period from a year earlier to 148, according to credit research firm Tokyo Shoko Research, highlighting the significant impact on business from surging wages.

Man throws firebombs at LDP HQ, crashes van at prime minister's office

A man threw firebombs at the headquarters of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and crashed a van into a barrier at the nearby prime minister's office in Tokyo on Saturday morning, police said.

Following the incidents starting at 5:43 a.m., Atsunobu Usuda, a 49-year-old from Kawaguchi in Saitama Prefecture, near Tokyo, was arrested at the scene for obstructing police officers, according to an investigative source.

The Metropolitan Police Department said three riot officers sustained minor throat injuries and a police vehicle was partially burned after the man threw around five objects at the LDP headquarters.

It said the man got out of the van after hitting the barrier and threw what appeared to be a smoke flare at police officers. He did not resist arrest but has remained silent during questioning, they said.

Usuda's father told reporters his son had previously been active in anti-nuclear protests and had also expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's electoral system, where political candidates are required to deposit hefty sums of money to run in elections.

Police also conducted a search of Usuda's home.

The 12-day official campaign period for the Oct. 27 general election kicked off Tuesday, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seeking to restore public trust in the ruling party following a slush funds scandal.

Giving a stump speech in Satsumasendai in Kagoshima Prefecture, southwestern Japan, Ishiba said, "Democracy should never succumb to violence."

"I will do my utmost to ensure the safety of the people," he said.

LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, the party's No. 2, said he was "enraged" by the acts, adding the LDP's campaigning will continue as scheduled.

Police officers and firefighters were seen inspecting the area in front of the LDP's headquarters, while an entrance to the premises of the prime minister's office was cordoned off with tape.

Video Shows Aftermath of Firebomb Attack at Ruling Party HQ in Japan

The suspect, identified as 49-year-old Atsunobu Usuda, allegedly appeared to use Molotov cocktails during his assault on the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters and rammed his car into a security fence, The Japan Times reported.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP's leader, said, "Democracy must never be allowed to succumb to violence.... We will continue to take all possible measures to ensure that citizens' safety and security are properly protected."

Japan PM’s approval rating falls ahead of vote

Approval ratings for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have fallen ahead of a general election on Sunday, one weekend poll showed, with another survey suggesting the ruling coalition could struggle to secure a majority.

Former Japanese minister of defense Ishiba took office this month after being voted leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power for most of Japan’s post-war history.

Scandals over funding and LDP lawmakers’ ties to the Unification Church — compounded by voter discontent over rising prices — caused the party’s ratings to plummet during the tenure of Ishiba’s predecessor, former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida.

A Kyodo News survey on Saturday and Sunday put the approval rating for Ishiba’s Cabinet at 41.4 percent, down from 42.0 percent a week earlier.

The disapproval rating was 40.4 percent in the most recent survey of 1,260 voters, Kyodo said on Sunday. Disapproval in the previous poll was 36.7 percent.

“This election will be really tough and difficult for us,” Ishiba told voters in a campaign speech last week.

A separate weekend survey by the liberal-leaning Asahi Shimbun found that public support for Ishiba’s Cabinet was at 33 percent, below 39 percent who disapproved.

Those results are worse than Kishida faced in 2021 ahead of his first general election as prime minister: 42 percent approval against 31 percent disapproval, the Asahi said.

The daily said its polls indicated that the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito ran the risk of losing a majority in the upcoming election.

Jiji Press said its polls and reporting showed the coalition was likely to retain its majority, although the LDP might not pass the threshold on its own — a possibility reflected in several previous polls by other outlets.

The conservative LDP and Komeito, a moderate party backed by a Buddhist-linked group, have been in power since 2012 when late former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe won a landslide victory.

If the LDP loses its majority it would be the first time since 2009, when the party was beaten in an election by the more left-wing opposition.

“Regardless of whether or not we lose our majority, we should hold positive talks with parties that are trying to develop the country with the same policies,” LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said in a debate program aired by public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.

Japan’s Nikkei ends lower amid election jitters

Japan’s Nikkei share average closed lower on Tuesday amid concerns the ruling party may lose its lower house majority in the coming election, while Wall Street’s weak finish overnight also weighed on market sentiment.

The Nikkei fell 1.39% to 38,411.96, while the broader Topix slid 1.06% to 2,651.47.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed lower on Monday, retreating from Friday’s record high closes and six straight weekly gains as Treasury yields rose and investors wary of high valuations awaited earnings from major companies.

Japan’s local media reported that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito may lose its majority in the lower house in the Oct. 27 election.

A report last week said the LDP may not reach the 233 seats it needs for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, setting up the snap election.

“The market does not like turmoil or uncertainties. The LDP may need to find another party to maintain the majority in the lower house, which means it may have to alter some of its policies,” said Shigetoshi Kamada, general manager of the research department at Tachibana Securities.

“The Nikkei tended to be on the upward trend ahead of a nationwide election, but this time it’s the opposite. So, investors needed to draw a scenario from scratch.”

Uniqlo-brand owner Fast Retailing fell 3.18% to drag the Nikkei the most. Chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron fell 3.08% and chip-testing equipment maker Advantest slipped 2.7%.

Japan PM's 'Asian NATO' plan was pitched by U.S. during Cold War

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's vision of an Asian NATO has precedent in a similar Cold War-era idea proposed by the U.S. But it faces tougher hurdles now as the U.S. grows reluctant to sign on to an arrangement that involves defending other countries.

NATO, the Atlantic collective defense framework, positioned the Soviet Union as its main threat during the Cold War and now sees Russia as the likely enemy. What Ishiba's Asian NATO would look like is not entirely clear at this point, but it could see Japan, the U.S., Australia and Southeast Asian nations band together to counter an increasingly coercive China.

Several years after the end of World War II, the U.S. drafted a similar concept known as the Pacific Pact. This would have encompassed Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines, with Indonesia also a potential participant.

This came about as the U.S. saw a need for a bulwark against the spread of communism in Asia amid rising tensions with the Soviet Union and the start of the Korean War. Some in Australia and the Philippines, which both wanted to ensure American involvement in their security, were receptive to the idea.

In January 1951, John Foster Dulles, then a U.S. special representative negotiating a peace treaty with Japan, broached the Pacific Pact concept with Tokyo.

Japan refused, suspecting the framework was intended partly as a way to control Japan. Then-Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida and others involved in the talks were also leery of a full-fledged military rearmament that could hobble the country's postwar economic rebuilding effort.

The U.K., which had Asian colonies and sought to maintain its influence in the region, was also averse to the idea. Australia, which had fought Japan during the war, opposed it as well, owing in part to public objections at home.

"Without getting support from countries other than the U.S., it lacked the momentum to move forward," said Shingo Nakajima, senior fellow at the Center for Military History at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies.

Washington shifted to a hub-and-spoke foreign policy model in the region, signing separate bilateral treaties with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia and New Zealand.

But "at that point, the U.S. had not completely given up on the concept" of a broader Pacific framework, Nakajima said.

In 1954, after the Korean War, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization was established by the U.S., the U.K., France, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan.

Around the same time, Washington explored creating a regional framework with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, and drew up a blueprint for aligning the group with SEATO and ANZUS, its alliance with Australia and New Zealand.

But this proposal fell through amid the deep distrust that South Korea and the Philippines still harbored toward Japan. SEATO was disbanded in 1977 after starting to fall apart amid rifts over the Vietnam War.

Ishiba's concept of an Asian NATO faces a similar problem with a lack of buy-in from other potential members, with Southeast Asian countries and India expressing skepticism. Many seek to avoid making an enemy of China, which has grown much stronger militarily and economically than it was during the Cold War.

And the U.S., the driving force behind the previous efforts, is itself in a very different place.

After World War II, both major political parties there supported America's leadership role in reshaping the international order, as shown by the creation of NATO. Now, the Republican Party candidate for president, Donald Trump, shows a much more isolationist bent on foreign policy, and similar sentiments can be seen in the left wing of the Democratic Party.

"A new security treaty with defense obligations to other countries would never be ratified by our Senate under current and foreseeable political circumstances in the United States," said James Schoff, senior director at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. Nearly 40 treaties and other measures have stalled in the divided Senate without approval.

"Trying to go through that messy process and failing could actually undermine confidence in U.S. security commitments more broadly like the U.S.-Japan alliance or NATO," Schoff said.

The U.S. has in recent years pivoted from the hub-and-spoke model to a network of "minilateral" cooperation -- including the AUKUS partnership with Australia and the U.K., and the trilateral relationship with Japan and South Korea -- with such on-the-ground cooperation as joint defense exercises. This approach, which does not require Senate approval, is seen as a more realistic option.

Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to set up a working group led by policy chief Itsunori Onodera to discuss the Asian-NATO idea. Ishiba opted not to set up the body at the prime minister's office to avoid the impression that it is an official government policy.

For Ishiba to push seriously for an Asian NATO, he will at a minimum need to solidify his political footing with wins in the upcoming lower house election and next year's upper house election. Japan's limits on collective self-defense would also pose an obstacle. But persuading the U.S. would likely be among the biggest hurdles, regardless of the outcome of its presidential election.

Japan PM'''s '''Asian NATO''' plan was pitched by U.S. during Cold War - Nikkei Asia

Japan PM denies LDP covertly backing scandal-hit members in election

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday dismissed the view that his ruling Liberal Democratic Party is financially supporting politicians implicated in a party slush funds scandal who are running in this weekend's general election without party endorsement.

Ishiba said the provision of funds, which came to light Wednesday and drew immediate criticism from the opposition camp, is intended for use by local LDP chapters in expanding party strength, not by scandal-hit members running without the party's ticket for the House of Representatives election on Sunday.

He took also issue with the matter coming out when campaigning is in its final stages.

"We provided funds to local branches, not individual candidates. I feel outrage about the timing of the reporting," Ishiba said during a campaign speech in Hiroshima, western Japan.

The Shimbun Akahata, the daily newspaper of the Japanese Communist Party, first reported that the LDP had provided 20 million yen ($131,000) to local branches headed by candidates who are not backed by the ruling party, the same amount as given to branches of its official candidates.

The revelation came as media polls point to a tough election for the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito, with their majority control of the 465-seat lower house at stake. Ishiba, who became premier on Oct. 1, dissolved the chamber to seek a fresh mandate.

Opposition party members are ramping up their criticism of the funds provision, with the head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan describing it as a way to support "clandestine candidates."

"The prime minister said the party decided not to give official endorsements (to scandal-related candidates) in a show of remorse. We should not have taken his words at face value in the first place," CDPJ chief Yoshihiko Noda said in a stump speech in Yokohama, near Tokyo.

Public confidence in the LDP has been eroded by revelations that some ruling party members had underreported income from fundraising events. The ruling party did not officially endorse 15 members involved in the scandal, which came to light during the tenure of Ishiba's predecessor.

Without official party endorsements, candidates cannot receive the same level of financial and other logistical support as those backed by a political party.

The sum of 20 million yen was funneled from party subsidies, or taxpayer money allocated to each party to support political activities, the Shimbun Akahata said, adding that for endorsed candidates, 5 million yen of the total was given as fees for the endorsement.

In an apparent bid to contain further damage, the LDP justified the provision of the funds in an internal document circulated on Thursday. The report by the Shimbun Akahata "distorted the facts and caused a misunderstanding," the party said, adding that there is "no truth at all" in the view that the party has stealth candidates.

The LDP also said that the provision of funds to local chapters poses no "legal or ethical" problems, and claimed that unendorsed members who are running as independents cannot use the funds for their campaigning.

"We've seen no remorse on the LDP's part," Yuichiro Tamaki, who heads the Democratic Party for the People, said in a stump speech in Fukuoka, southwestern Japan.

Japan PM on defensive as election prospects dim further

Japan's new prime minister hit out at "biased" media reports related to a party scandal, as another survey suggested that his ruling coalition could fall short of a majority in elections on Sunday (Oct 27).

This would be the worst result for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for almost all the past seven decades, since it last lost power in 2009.

Shigeru Ishiba, 67, only became party leader – on the fifth attempt – last month and took office as prime minister on Oct 1, calling snap elections within days to shore up his position.

Friday's new poll by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the necessary 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.

Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective. Missing it would undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.

In voting districts, only 87 of the LDP's 266 candidates are ahead of their rivals, while 133 are in neck-and-neck battles, the top-selling Yomiuri said.

The LDP was also set to lose dozens of seats in the proportional representation section of the election, the paper added.

Adding to Ishiba's woes is the continuing fallout of a slush fund scandal within the LDP that angered voters and helped torpedo his predecessor Fumio Kishida.

Ishiba promised to not actively support LDP politicians caught up in the scandal running in the election, although they are still standing.

But according to media reports, the party has still provided 20 million yen (US$132,000) each to district offices headed by these figures, prompting opposition fury.

Ishiba on Thursday insisted that the money was for those offices, not to support those candidates themselves.

"It is truly frustrating that such reports come out at a time like this," Ishiba said at a campaign speech. "Those candidates will not use the money."

"We cannot be defeated by those with biased views," he said.

Final campaigning in tight Japan election

Candidates in Japan's super-tight parliamentary election will make last-ditch appeals to voters on Saturday, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling coalition might fall short of a majority.

Such an outcome would be the worst result for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2009 and potentially a knockout blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, analysts say.

Ishiba -- a fan of trains, 1970s pop idols and making model ships and planes -- only last month took the helm of the LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all of the past seven decades.

After a tough internal contest, the 67-year-old became premier on October 1.

Days later, he called snap elections for October 27, promising a "new Japan".

Ishiba pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the "quiet emergency" of Japan's falling population by supporting families with policies like flexible working hours.

But he has since rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames.

He also named only two women ministers in his cabinet.

A new poll on Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.

Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective, and missing it would undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.

In many districts LDP candidates are in neck-and-neck battles with those of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) -- the second-biggest in parliament -- led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.

Noda's stance "is sort of similar to the LDP's. He is basically a conservative," Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP.

"The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so," Kamikubo said.

Japan’s new PM in precarious position as country votes in tight election

Citizens of Japan will be voting in the country’s tightest election in years on Sunday, with new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic party (LDP) facing potentially their worst result since 2009.

Opinion polls suggest the conservative LDP and its junior coalition partner may fall short of a majority, a result that could deal a knockout blow to Ishiba.

The 67-year-old former defence minister took office and called a snap election after being narrowly selected last month to lead the LDP, which has governed Japan for almost all of the past seven decades.

But voters in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been rankled by rising prices and the fallout from a party slush fund scandal that helped sink previous premier Fumio Kishida.

“We want to start afresh as a fair, just and sincere party, and seek your mandate,” Ishiba told supporters at a rally on Saturday.

He has pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s falling population through family-friendly policies such as flexible working hours.

But he has since rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. He also named only two women ministers in his cabinet.

The self-confessed security policy “geek” has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of Nato to counter China, although he has since cautioned it would “not happen overnight”.

A poll on Friday by the Yomiuri Shimbun daily suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to get the 233 lower house seats needed for a majority.

Ishiba has set this threshold as his objective, and missing it would undermine his position in the LDP and mean finding other coalition partners or leading a minority government.

Local media speculated that Ishiba could even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the postwar period.

The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni who served for 54 days – four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 – just after Japan’s 1945 defeat in the second world war.

“The situation is extremely severe,” Ishiba reportedly said on Friday.

In many districts, LDP candidates are neck-and-neck with those from the Constitutional Democratic party (CDP) – the second-biggest in parliament – led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.

“The LDP’s politics is all about quickly implementing policies for those who give them loads of cash,” Noda told his supporters on Saturday.

“But those in vulnerable positions, who can’t offer cash, have been ignored,” he added, accusing the LDP-led government of offering insufficient support for survivors of an earthquake in central Japan.

Noda’s stance “is sort of similar to the LDP’s. He is basically a conservative,” Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP. “The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so.”

Ishiba promised to not actively support LDP politicians caught up in the funding scandal and running in the election, although they are still standing.

According to Japanese media, the party has also provided 20m yen (£100,000) each to district offices headed by these figures – reports Ishiba has called “biased” as “those candidates will not use the money”.

Hitomi Hisano, an undecided voter from the central Aichi region, told AFP in Tokyo that the LDP’s funding scandal was a big factor for him.

“The LDP has sat in power for too long. I see hubris in there,” the 69-year-old said. “So part of me wants to punish them.” But there aren’t other parties that are reliable enough to win my vote.”

Live updates: Japan's Lower House election 2024

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s newly appointed administration faces a pivotal early test in the upcoming Lower House election, called only nine days into his leadership. The election is the first nationwide vote since a major slush-funds scandal shook the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, straining public trust.

Although the LDP held a comfortable Lower House majority before its dissolution, their position now appears fragile. If the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, lose seats, they may need support from the Democratic Party for the People, though DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has been reluctant about a coalition. The opposition, led by the Constitutional Democratic Party, aims to capitalize on this moment to challenge LDP dominance, highlighting its scandals and stirring calls for political change.

If the ruling LDP-Komeito bloc loses its majority in the lower chamber, it will be the for first time in 15 years.

Follow the action here as the numbers roll in.

Nearly 21 million voters cast ballots early, data shows

Japans Ishiba indicates he will stay on as prime minister

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba indicated on Monday that he intends to stay on as Japan's leader after his Liberal Democratic Party and ruling coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2009 in a general election the day before.

"National politics cannot stagnate for even one moment," Ishiba said at a news conference at LDP headquarters in Tokyo, when asked how the LDP leadership and he himself as party leader should take responsibility. "We will continue to advance national politics in a steady manner." He also vowed to further pursue political reform.

Ishiba's statement clarifies his plans following the coalition's drubbing in the snap election, which he called eight days into his tenure as prime minister in a bid to win a vote of public confidence for his cabinet. But voters punished the LDP over a political funds scandal that has dogged the party since late last year.

The LDP and Komeito won a combined 215 seats by Nikkei's count, falling short of the 233 needed to maintain a majority in the 465-seat chamber. Opposition parties secured 235 seats. Both sides are expected to scramble to put together a majority coalition to form a government.

Japanese prime ministers sometimes face internal pressure to step down after their parties lose seats in major elections. Despite its losses, the LDP remains the single largest party in the lower house with 191 seats.

The coalition may decide to work with another party or parties to forge a majority, but can also continue in power as a minority government if Ishiba can be re-elected as prime minister at a special Diet session that must convene within 30 days of the election.

Ishiba's current cabinet will resign if that happens. Both the lower and upper houses will then hold a fresh vote to select a prime minister. If Ishiba is elected, he will form a second cabinet. If the Diet choses a new leader, Ishiba's tenure will be the shortest since World War II -- even briefer than that of Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, who served as prime minister for 54 days.

Before the news conference, Ishiba attended a special LDP board meeting to discuss expanding the coalition. he was also is expected to meet with Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii, who lost his seat in the election.

Fallout from the debacle is already being felt within the upper echelons of the party. Shinjiro Koizumi, LDP election strategy chief, told reporters on Monday that he had submitted his resignation to Ishiba to take responsibility for the outcome and that it was accepted.

Ishiba became prime minister after winning an internal LDP election in late September to become party president, replacing previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the top of the LDP after he decided not to seek reelection in order to take responsibility for the scandal, which centered on lawmakers failing to properly disclose funds raised through political activities.

The dissolution of the lower house marked the fastest such move after a new prime minister took office since the end of World War II.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats in the chamber, up from 98 before the election, while the Democratic Party for the People also increased its seven seats to 28, amid public anger at the LDP over a political funding scandal involving dozens of its lawmakers.

Japan marks third lowest general-election turnout in postwar history

Voter turnout for single-seat constituencies in Sunday's general election in Japan stood at 53.85%, the third lowest in post-World War II history, according to internal affairs ministry data.

The figure was down 2.08 percentage points from 55.93% in the previous election for the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of parliament, in 2021. The postwar low of 52.66% was marked in the 2014 Lower House poll.

Voter turnout in Sunday's election stood at 54.30% among men and 53.42% among women.

By prefecture, the highest voter turnout in Sunday's election was 60.82% in Yamagata, and the lowest was 48.40% in Hiroshima.

Some experts believe that the sluggish readings reflected delays in work by regional election boards to send out poll cards to voters due to the short interval between the Oct. 9 Lower House dissolution and the Oct. 15 start of the official campaign period for the election, as well as voters' falling interest in politics mainly because of the high-profile slush funds scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Normally, low voter turnout tends to benefit political parties with organizational power. This time, however, the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, struggled in Sunday's election despite having powerful support bases.

Lower House voter turnout fell below 60% for the first time in the 1996 election after having continued to move above that mark since the end of the war.

Voter turnout recovered to 69.28% in the 2009 election, in which the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan seized power from the LDP-Komeito pair, but stood below 60% again in the 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2021 elections.

The number of people who cast early votes for single-seat constituencies in Sunday's general election was 20,955,435, accounting for 20.11% of all eligible voters, according to the ministry.

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U.S. Reaffirms Alliance With Japan After Ruling Coalition Suffers Crushing Defeat in Lower House Election

The United States will continue to work with Japan as a close ally on stability in the Indo-Pacific region, global challenges and trilateral relations between Japan, the United States and South Korea, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Monday, following the recent significant losses for Japan’s ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito in the House of Representatives election.

“I do not see that changing because of the outcome of any election either in the United States or in Japan,” Miller said at a press conference.

“We look forward to continuing our work with the government of Japan, a steadfast ally of ours,” he added.

Signs of Revolt against Japan PM Ishiba Emerging within LDP

Signs of revolt against Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba are beginning to emerge within his Liberal Democratic Party after its humiliating defeat in Sunday's general election.

"The magma is building up. It won't end like this," a veteran LDP member said, warning of a possible movement among party members to oust Ishiba from power.

After the ruling camp of the LDP and Komeito fell short of a majority in the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, Japan's parliament, many LDP members are calling on Ishiba, the party's president, to take the blame for the poor result.

Amid the lingering shock of the defeat, disgruntled members are not yet ready to take any coordinated action. But a wave of calls may arise within the party urging Ishiba to step down, ahead of the Diet votes to elect prime minister during a special Diet session likely to be convened Nov. 11.

LDP members are also increasingly critical of Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, who has power over party affairs in general, further strengthening the difficulty confronting the Ishiba administration.

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A second high court rules that Japan's ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional

A second high court has ruled that the Japanese government’s policy against same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. Wednesday’s ruling is the latest in a series of decisions upholding plaintiffs’ demands for marriage equality. The Tokyo High Court called the ongoing ban “a groundless legal discrimination based on sexual orientation.” The ruling states the unconstitutionality more clearly than the 2022 lower court decision. Tuesday’s victory raises hope for the LGBTQ+ community. Their main obstacle is Japan’s conservative ruling party. The party lost parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election and is now likely to have to be more mindful of public opinion.

Japan's parliament convenes Nov. 11 to choose prime minister

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to begin a special parliamentary session on Nov. 11 to select a prime minister after suffering a major defeat in Sunday's lower house election.

The LDP notified the leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) of the plan on Wednesday. Lawmakers will vote for prime minister on the first day of the session, which is slated to last four days.

No candidate is expected to win a majority in the first round of voting after the LDP and junior partner Komeito lost control of the lower house on Sunday, meaning the vote likely will go to a runoff for the first time since 1994.

Recently inaugurated Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Wednesday spoke with LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama about strategies for the special session and forming a government.

Ishiba plans to court support not only from Komeito but also from the Democratic Party for the People and other opposition parties in order to remain prime minister.

Six lawmakers stripped of the LDP's endorsement for Sunday's election over their involvement in a political funds scandal are expected to be brought into the party's parliamentary group.

With the Democratic Party for the People, the LDP is offering to form an alliance on an issue-by-issue basis. It hopes to secure the DPP's support on the prime ministerial race, budgets and key legislation in exchange for helping to advance the party's policy goals.

Meanwhile, Komeito is focusing on choosing a new leader to replace Keiichi Ishii, who lost his seat on Sunday. The party will decide on the date of its leadership election at a Thursday meeting.

The CDP is also courting support from other parties with an eye on the prime minister's chair. Party leader Yoshihiko Noda met on Tuesday with Nobuyuki Baba, his counterpart in the Japan Innovation Party, as well as the Japanese Communist Party's Tomoko Tamura, asking them to back him in a runoff.

Tamura later expressed openness to voting for Noda, and will decide after consulting with other party members.

The DPP has turned down a request from the Constitutional Democrats for a meeting between their leaders.

LDP and CDP officials also met Wednesday to discuss the upcoming session, and they agreed to hold a meeting on Friday to decide on the leadership of parliamentary committees. The CDP also wants the session to include a budgetary meeting.

"The CDP has gained many seats, so we need to consider that," the LDP's Tetsushi Sakamoto said afterward.

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Japan PM Ishiba arranging 1st summit with China's Xi in November

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is arranging his first summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of an international gathering in mid-November, a source with knowledge of the matter said Thursday.

The Japanese prime minister is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit from Nov. 15 to 16 in Peru and the Group of 20 leaders' meeting from Nov. 18 to 19 in Brazil. The bilateral summit will most likely to take place in Peru, the source said.

Ishiba is expected to call for the early resumption of Japanese marine product shipments to China after the country agreed last month to gradually lift its ban on seafood imports from Japan.

China imposed the ban after the release of treated radioactive water into the sea from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant commenced in August last year.

Japan's opposition CDP, DPFP agree on need for political reform

Japan's largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Democratic Party for the People agreed to discuss how to work together on a policy-by-policy basis.

The DPFP's support could decide whether the ruling coalition can stay in power following last Sunday's Lower House election.

CDP Secretary-General Ogawa Junya and his DPFP counterpart, Shimba Kazuya, met on Friday. The Diet affairs chiefs of both parties were also present.

Ogawa said that based on the voters' mandate, which resulted in the ruling coalition's failure to secure a majority, it is important to rally opposition forces. He called on the DPFP to coordinate stances with the CDP on Diet affairs and other matters.

Shimba responded by saying his party will act by keeping an equal distance with other parties.

The two parties agreed to discuss possible coordination on a case-by-case basis, depending on the content of policies or draft legislation.

Ogawa and Shimba agreed on the need for further political and Diet reforms. They also agreed to arrange a meeting between their party leaders -- CDP President Noda Yoshihiko and DPFP President Tamaki Yuichiro -- next week.

The two also confirmed that discussions about basic policies, including security and energy, should be held by their respective policy chiefs, together with Rengo, or the Japanese Trade Union Confederation.

The CDP's Ogawa told reporters the DPFP is very wary of being seen to be in the same boat as the ruling camp. He said coordination among opposition parties is needed more than ever as the ruling bloc remains short of a majority.

The DPFP's Shimba told reporters that with the political funding scandal yet to be settled, the party will work to advance political and Diet reforms. He expressed hope that next week's meeting between the party leaders will cover a wide range of matters. He added the party will also seek to have similar meetings with the leaders of Komeito and the Japan Innovation Party.