Thread: Sept 30 The Fate of PM Prayut

• Pheu Thai eyes Chaikasem for PM

The main opposition Pheu Thai Party will nominate Chaikasem Nitisiri for prime minister should the Constitutional Court rule at the end of the month that Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's time as premier has already ended.

Mr Chaikasem, the Pheu Thai's chief strategist, is the party's only remaining choice to compete for the premiership in parliament, according to Pheu Thai leader Dr Cholnan Srikaew.

The two previous candidates, Chadchart Sittipunt and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan have left the party to pursue other political endeavours, he said.

Mr Chadchart severed ties with Pheu Thai to run for the Bangkok governorship. He won the race in May.

Khunying Sudarat quit the party and founded the Thai Sang Thai Party.

The departure of the two politicians has left Mr Chaikasem as the party's only choice for prime ministerial candidate.

Dr Cholnan said Pheu Thai will throw Mr Chaikasem's name into the hat if it is determined by the Constitutional Court that Gen Prayut's eight year tenure as prime minister, served in two back-to-back terms, are up.

The court has announced it will rule on the matter on Sept 30. If Gen Prayut loses his prime ministerial post, parliament will need to find his replacement by going back to the names of prime ministerial candidates proposed in the last general election in March 2019.

Apart from Mr Chaikasem, Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the coalition Bhumjaithai Party is also among the valid prime ministerial candidates.

Dr Cholnan said Mr Anutin has a chance of succeeding Gen Prayut as prime minister although he admits there has been talk of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who is currently acting prime minister, being nominated as a prime minister candidate from outside the 2019 candidacy list.

But the candidates on the list would be voted on first. If none garnered enough votes to be prime minister, a candidate not on the list would be nominated and voted on by both MPs and senators. However, an outsider candidate would need the support of at least two-thirds of parliamentarians, or 488, to become prime minister.

Dr Cholnan said a House dissolution cannot be ruled out. In which case, a general election would be called.

Even if Gen Prawit took over from Gen Prayut as prime minister, the political landscape would be unchanged, he added.

• Thailand sets May 7, 2023 as the tentative date of next general election

Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) has tentatively designated May 7th next year as the date for the next general election, if the House of Representatives is not dissolved by the prime minister before the end of its four-year term on March 23rd.

According to the current Constitution, a general election must be held within 45 days of the end of the House’s term, which would be May 7th next year, and registration for candidacy will be held from April 3rd to 7th.

According to the provisional timelines worked out by the EC, advanced voting has been set for April 30th, 2023 for those who cannot cast their ballots on May 7th, or who cannot vote in their constituencies, but they will be required to notify authorities seven days before election day of the reasons for not being able to vote in their constituencies or on election day itself.

Candidates are also warned by the EC not to engage in activities deemed to be courting favour from voters, or offering anything to voters in an effort to convince them to vote for them, in the 180 days before the end of the House’s term on March 23rd.

The Royal Decree on the election of members of the House of Representatives is expected to come into effect no later than the deadline of March 30th.

The lists of the candidates will tentatively be announced on April 14th.

The Constitutional Court has scheduled the issuance of a ruling on suspended Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s eight-year term in office on September 30th at 3 pm.

I wonder if there will be celebrations?

Depends if the court sides with law......

Originally Posted by S Landreth

promulgation of the current Constitution, on April 6th, 2017.

Then......

• Will Prayut return as PM? Ball in Constitutional Court

All eyes across Thailand will be on the Constitutional Court on Friday (September 30), when it is scheduled to rule on whether General Prayut Chan-o-cha has completed eight years as prime minister.

Speculation and conspiracy theories have been rife for the past month, from the time the court accepted the opposition’s petition on August 24 and suspended Prayut from performing his duties as PM, pending its ruling.

The opposition petition asked the court for a ruling on whether Prayut had reached the eight-year term limit fixed by the Constitution for prime minister, arguing that he had begun serving in the position on August 24, 2014, following the military coup that he had led three months earlier.

What the Constitution says

Unlike all the previous editions, the current Thai charter clearly stipulates the maximum time an individual can serve as PM.

Article 158 states: “The prime minister shall not hold office for more than eight years in total, whether or not consecutively. However, this shall not include the period during which the prime minister carries out duties after vacating the office.”

When to start counting?

There are three possible starting points to count Prayut’s term as prime minister:

— August 24, 2014, when Prayut first assumed the premiership following the coup that he led in May that year;

— April 6, 2017, when the current Constitution came into force;

— June 9, 2019, when Prayut assumed the premiership following the general election in March that year.

The parliamentary opposition and Prayut’s critics make a strong case for counting his tenure from August 24, arguing that the constitutional clause in question is designed in principle to prevent a “monopoly of power”. For them, what matters is the spirit of the Constitution, whose unprecedented provision is intended to prevent any prime minister from entrenching himself or herself in power.

Opponents of the August 24 deadline believe the eight-year limit cannot have a retroactive effect. They argue that his tenure should be counted from the time the current charter came into force – which means Prayut can serve for another term as prime minister until April 2025, if his party wins the elections.

Only the most ardent of Prayut’s supporters believe the tenure should be counted from June 2019, when he was sworn in as prime minister under the new Constitution after being selected by Parliament and appointed by royal command. They believe he could serve until mid-2027 as the country’s leader if he wins a fresh mandate in the general election tentatively scheduled for May 7.

What are the possible rulings?

The Constitutional Court’s nine judges are poised to issue a joint verdict on Prayut’s tenure as PM. There are three possible scenarios.

If the court rules that his term began when he first assumed the premiership in August 2014, after the coup, Prayut would immediately lose his PM seat.

Both Houses of Parliament would then vote for a new prime minister from the list of PM candidates in the 2019 election. That list featured five candidates other than Prayut – Anutin Charnvirakul and Abhisit Vejjajiva from the coalition’s Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties, respectively, and Chaikasem Nitisiri, Chadchart Sittipunt and Sudarat Keyuraphan from the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party would not have a candidate as Prayut was its only nominee for PM.

However, if the court rules that Prayut’s tenure began when the current Constitution came into force in April 2017, then he can serve for two more years after completion of his current term in 2023.

But if the court rules that Prayut’s tenure should be counted from the time he was sworn in as PM in June 2019, under the new Constitution, then he can have five more years in office if re-elected.

Some analysts have pointed out that unless the court rules Prayut has completed his eight-year tenure, its verdict is unlikely to state when he would be completing his maximum period in office as the opposition’s petition did not ask this question.

The Constitutional Court has often rejected petitions it found to be filed premature before the legal question arose. So, petitioners are forced to wait until the time approaches before taking their case to court. The opposition waited until August 17 to submit its petition to House Speaker Chuan Leekpai, who forwarded it to the court on August 22.

If Prayut can stay on and serve for another term after the election, petitioners will have to wait until the next possible deadline before bringing their case to court again, political observers say.

What happens if Prayut has to go?

If the court rules that Prayut’s term expired on August 24, he will have to vacate his seat and his Cabinet would serve as a caretaker government until Parliament chooses a new prime minister, according to Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, who is in charge of the government’s legal affairs.

General Prawit Wongsuwan, the first deputy prime minister, who is now serving as acting prime minister, would serve as the caretaker PM.

The law, however, does not prohibit Prayut from serving as a caretaker PM during the process of selecting his successor. But many analysts believe that to be an unlikely scenario.

• Tight security at Constitutional Court for Prayut ruling

Security has been tightened at the Constitutional Court where nine judges on Friday will announce their ruling on the fate of suspended Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.

The inner part of the courthouse at the Government Complex on Chaeng Watthana Road is off-limits to anyone making non-essential visits, according to an announcement signed by court president Worawit Kangsasitiam on Wednesday.

People around the compound will be thoroughly searched by security staff. The measures are in effect from 7pm on Thursday to 6am on Monday, according to the announcement that was released on Thursday.

The court president said security forces had warned of the possibility of unsafe situations, leading to his decision to increase security measures.

The court will read out the ruling of the judges on the eight-year tenure of Gen Prayut under the 2017 constitution. The charter limits the term of a prime minister to eight years.

The question to be clarified is when the term of the man who seized power in a coup in 2014 ends.

The reading of the ruling will start at 3pm on Friday and will be broadcast live on the court's YouTube channel.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

The court president said security forces had warned of the possibility of unsafe situations, leading to his decision to increase security measures

An indiction the verdict will favor Prayut imho. Protests and arrests to follow. SNAFU.

The riches thugs rule in the land of smirks the names die off but biggest snouts are unrestrained by law , virtue nor accountability.

Originally Posted by Norton

SNAFU

That was good. I had to look that one up.

Little more detail........

• Security tight at Constitutional Court ahead of Prayut's premiership term ruling today

Thailand’s Constitutional Court and its offices have been declared restricted areas from 7pm Thursday night until 6am on Monday, ahead of the court’s ruling on the 8-year term in office of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Friday afternoon.

Only authorised persons and their vehicles are currently allowed entry to the restricted areas and they are subject to checks by guards.

The security measure was ordered by president of the Constitutional Court, Worawit Kangsasitiam, after they wereinformed by security agencies of potential disturbances related to the court’s ruling.

About 300 police officers will be at the Constitutional Court today (Friday) to maintain peace and order.

Parliament President Chuan Leekpai said yesterday that there will be no political vacuum created should the court rule that the currently suspended Prime Minister’s term in office has already expired.

Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan is the acting prime minister, pending the court’s ruling.

As defence minister, Prayut will be at the ministry today.

In August, opposition parties sought the Constitutional Court’s ruling on Prime Minister Prayut’s term in office, claiming that his 8-year term expired on August 23rd this year, as he was named prime minister on August 24th, 2014,following a coup in May of that year, which he led to overthrow the government of then Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

not everyone is happy

Khaosod English - Anti-Prayut demonstrations occurring Friday afternoon in Bangkok at both Pathumwan Skywalk and Ratchaprasong Intersection https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/s...92916672679937