China’s Power in Asia Falls as U.S. Regains Authority, Lowy Says
By Lisa Du
December 5, 2021 (Bloomberg)
- U.S. gains more influence in Asia as China turns inward
- Indonesia rises to top 10 rankings for first time
Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden, pictured at a California school in Feb. 2012 when they were still vice presidents of their respective nations. Photographer: Tim Rue/Bloomberg
China's influence in Asia receded in the second year of the pandemic as the country turned more inward, while the U.S. expanded its power in the region through better diplomacy, according to an Australian research group.
China’s measure of power fell as the country wrestled with structural weaknesses in its demographics and financial system and become more isolationist, the Sydney-based Lowy Institute said in its Asia Power Index for 2021, which ranks 26 nations and territories. The index measures power using 131 indicators including economic clout, defense capability, cultural and diplomatic influence, and projected future resources.
Comparatively, the U.S. gained more influence in Asia this year due to President Joe Biden’s administration brokering better diplomatic relationships and a speedy recovery from the pandemic with the help of vaccinations, said Herve Lemahieu, the study’s research chief and director of Lowy’s Asian Power and Diplomacy Program.
“There's been a bit of a flip in assessments of the U.S. and China’s future prospects across a range of measures — military, economic and demographic,” Lemahieu said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “And that suggests that the U.S. will remain or has the ability to remain competitive as equal to China or as the primary superpower for much longer than we anticipated.”
The top 10 countries for overall power in the Asia-Pacific region are the U.S., China, Japan, India, Russia, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand, the study said. The ranking this year reflected the longer term impact of the pandemic, with the overall power of most countries falling compared to last year in the index.
Although China improved on resilience indicators as it shifted more toward domestic production and consumption, Beijing’s more isolationist turn also meant it lost ground on influence. An assessment of the country’s future resources added the most downward pressure on China’s power, as the need to tackle its rapidly aging population and a heavy domestic debt load became apparent, the study said.
It’s unclear how the spreading omicron coronavirus strain is going to change the prospects for the region and the balance of power, but the variant underscores the importance that vaccination has played in this year’s rankings, Lemahieu said.