Thread: U.S. leaves its last Afghan base, effectively ending operations

Taliban neutralises the Afghan warlords

August 12, 2021

by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

"The Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif on Wednesday had an air of high drama — the C-in-C visiting the frontline — even as the Taliban’s relentless onslaught is bringing it close to the city, traditionally an anti-Taliban bastion. The historic city and its inhabitants are cut off from the rest of the country and awaiting the worst. But Ghani’s real agenda was to form an anti-Taliban front comprising the government forces and the disparate local armed groups to stall the Taliban offensive and buy time. Does the proposition of an anti-Taliban ‘United Front’ — to use the Marxist-Leninist concept — at this late hour look viable?

Ghani took the Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum with him to Mazar-i-Sharif. They have a common interest insofar as Dostum too is a beached whale in Kabul. Ghani’s primary objective is to arrange a patch-up between Dostum and the Tajik warlord ruling Mazar-i-Sharif, Mohammed Atta.

Tajiks (45%) and Pashtuns (40%) are the main ethnic groups in Mazar-i-Sharif’s half a million population and Uzbeks constitute a minority of 10-12%. But Dostum and his henchmen called the shots in that city from the Soviet era. Dostum could never forgive Atta for usurping power after the Americans came.
Dostum is an uncontrollable phenomenon and it is anybody’s guess how many times the then Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ala’eddin Broujerdi sneaked into (Taliban-ruled) Afghanistan in the late 1990s to pacify the internecine squabbles involving the quarrelsome Northern Alliance factions.
Who will play Broujerdi’s role today? Abdullah Abdullah, CEO under Ghani, is a lone ranger, half-Tajik and half-Pashtun by birth, and ill-equipped to negotiate with warlords. Ahmed Shah Massoud used to assign difficult political missions to late Abdul Rahman (who negotiated Dostum’s defection from Najibullah’s camp.) The only person with political acumen to mediate between unruly warlords would probably be Yunus Qanooni, but he has been marginalised.

The warlords are notoriously greedy for money. In 2001, Americans brought in dollar bills in gunny bags literally, to ‘incentivise’ the warlords who got used to demanding huge kickbacks since then, amassing properties in Dubai or wherever and have become multi-millionaires. No wonder, Afghan Finance Minister simply resigned and fled abroad on Wednesday.

Will President Biden re-employ the warlords? Extremely doubtful.

In the present ethnic line-up, there is no Pashtun warlord in sight. Already, the two ‘strongmen’ on Ghani’s side are Tajiks — Vice-President Amrullah Saleh and Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi. And, both are ‘Panjshiris’, one of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan with a population of about 1.75 lakhs (in a country of 3.8 crore people.)

The optics don’t look good — although no one discusses ethnic undercurrents publicly. Therefore, the big question is, why would anybody want to risk life for the survival of the current set-up in Kabul? In the Afghan bazaar, people will laugh if they are told these guys are fighting for democracy. Nor have warlords any high opinion of Ghani. His past record is of a fickle-minded person. Indeed, on Tuesday, he sacked the Afghan army chief.

Then, there is the external angle. Almost all warlords have experienced foreign patronage. It is a legacy of the Afghan jihad. ‘Have-gun-Will-travel’ culture is deeply entrenched in their psyche. The warlord’s fealty goes to the highest bidder.

Dostum, a car mechanic by profession, was a creation of the KGB. After the Soviet collapse, Tashkent became his watering hole. He has since served Pakistan’s ISI (helping the Taliban to capture Herat in 1995) and Turkey. Ideology or politics never bothered him. Currently,Turkey commands Dostum.
Therefore, it’s highly intriguing that while Dostum is challenging the Taliban, the tidings from Ankara are that Turkey’s President Erdogan is planning a summit meeting between himself and the Taliban leader! Dostum was recently in Ankara and conceivably, Turkish intelligence briefed him.

At any rate, Erdogan said in nationally televised remarks that the current process with Taliban is “quite problematic”. To quote Erdogan,

“We are working on this matter, including some meetings with the Taliban. So much so that I may be in a position to meet with the person who will become their leader. Why? Because if we cannot take them under control at the top level, we will not be able to establish peace in Afghanistan.”
Erdogan added meaningfully, “Don’t we have veritable blood relatives in Afghanistan? We do. With all these, we will take certain steps and work to see who we can take on our side.”

Dostum won’t work at cross-purposes with Erdogan. So, what if Erdogan gets a deal from the Taliban to accommodate Dostum? Atta needs to be wary — and Ghani too.

Iran too prioritises the safety and welfare of Shia-dominated Hazarajat region and the security of Tajik-dominated western border regions of Afghanistan. Tehran has expressed satisfaction that it is in direct contact with the Taliban.
Iran’s nexus with the Northern Alliance came in the heat of the moment in the wake of the Taliban attack on the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif in August 1998 in which 11 Iranian diplomats were killed. Today’s circumstances are different.

As for Russia and China, Taliban’s consolidation in the North is a factor of stability and security. On Wednesday, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu acknowledged, “What’s important to us is that the border with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan is also taken under the control of the Taliban.”

Shoigu took note that the Taliban has vowed not to cross into Central Asian republics. Suffice to say, Russia, China, Central Asian states, Iran or Pakistan have no reason to foster Afghan warlords. That means, Ghani will have to ‘incentivise’ the warlords. Does he have the money power and material resources to do that?

This is where the strategic significance of Taliban’s capture of Pul-e-Khumri (Baghlan province) on Wednesday needs to be understood. In effect, the Taliban now controls a strategic hub — the so-called ‘outer ring road’ — that connects Kabul with six Northern provinces; with Panjshir, Takhar and Kunduz to the northeast; with Samangan and Bamyan to the west; and with Parwan to the south.

That is to say, the fall of Pul-e-Khumri cripples Kabul’s supply lines. Clearly, Taliban’s intelligence system knew precisely what was happening in Ghani’s court.

Once Mazar-i-Sharif falls, some isolate pockets of resistance may remain, which the Taliban would tackle through political work or coercion. Historically, Afghanistan has only rarely been at peace with itself. "

Taliban neutralises the Afghan warlords - Indian Punchline

Originally Posted by sabang

No, I think scurrying off in the dead of night and not even telling your allies is a much more honorable debacle. To say nothing of those homecoming parades...

Well, the US made it quite clear that they'd be leaving . . . shouldn't have been there in the first place.

Originally Posted by Joe 90

A battalion of British Paras are going back in...

To get people out.

Originally Posted by OhOh

"Afghanistan’s acting finance minister Khalid Payenda has resigned and left the country

Won't be the last Green Zone resident to hightail it out of there, that's for sure.

Can anyone here tell me what kind of troop numbers the Taliban have ? I don't claim any kind of knowledge about this region of the world.

And how are the Taliban actually holding the cities they have taken ?

Is there any kind of underground resistance, or have those taken over just given up ?

Originally Posted by Latindancer

Can anyone here tell me what kind of troop numbers the Taliban have ?

I don't know how many, but I think you can bet it is far less than the 300k in the ANA.

Originally Posted by Latindancer

And how are the Taliban actually holding the cities they have taken ?

From all of what I have seen, the ANA is doing no counterattacking at all. It has effectively rolled up into a ball.

Throats will be slit either way.

Originally Posted by Latindancer

Throats will be slit either way.

I think many have been already.

The group is thought to now be stronger in numbers than at any point since they were ousted in 2001 - with up to 85,000 full time fighters, according to recent Nato estimates. Their control of territory is harder to estimate, as districts swing back and forth between them and government forces, but recent estimates put it somewhere between a third and a fifth of the country.

Who are the Taliban? - BBC News

Decent summation of the Taliban from BBC.

Imagine an Afghanistan without the purposeful and created Taliban from nefarious foreign interests.

Predisposed blowback is a bitter pill.

Originally Posted by HuangLao

Imagine an Afghanistan without the purposeful and created Taliban from nefarious foreign interests.

Predisposed blowback is a bitter pill.

You're being an arse again Jeff.

Muslim fundamentalists weren't created by the West.

They've existed since Mohammed told Muslims to slaughter anyone who wasn't Muslim.

These brainwashed fuckwits would like to behead you if you don't stop eating bacon sandwiches.

I hate the way though, that Moslem fundamentalists have been cynically fostered by the west. Even now you've got the latest version of Al Qaeda in Syria (HTM) being described as a 'potential asset' By US State Dept.

Originally Posted by sabang

Even now you've got the latest version of Al Qaeda in Syria (HTM) being described as a 'potential asset' By US State Dept.

Do you have a link to back that up?

I did, a while ago.

Originally Posted by sabang

I did, a while ago.

Originally Posted by sabang

Even now you've got the latest version of Al Qaeda in Syria (HTM) being described as a 'potential asset' By US State Dept.

Robin Cook, the former FM of UK, mentioned from backbench in UK parliament in 2005, what is Al-Qaeda. It was 4 weeks before he surprisingly fell dead...

Oh, do fuck off Klongdick . . . how tedious.

On December 24, 1979, the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan, under the pretext of upholding the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty of 1978.

Originally Posted by Klondyke

Robin Cook, the former FM of UK, mentioned from backbench in UK parliament in 2005, what is Al-Qaeda. It was 4 weeks before he surprisingly fell dead...

Well, then be careful about what you're writing..

Originally Posted by bsnub

Do you have a link to back that up?

It's probably Infowars or Parler.

Deep state shapeshifting lizard people innit.

Originally Posted by lom

Well, then be careful about what you're writing..

Kom och sätt dej här intill mej, lilla vän
Så ska jag berätta hur det är och hur det känns
Och om du lovar mej att fråga hur jag har det
Ja, då lovar jag att fråga samma sak

How are you, mate

How many Coalition forces lost there lives in Afghanistan?

For what?

A total waste!

Originally Posted by helge

How are you, mate

I'm fine mate, and you?
Whom can you trust?

Originally Posted by panama hat

On December 24, 1979, the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan, under the pretext of upholding the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty of 1978.

^Has it something to do with Al-Qaeda we talk here about?
Or is it your favorite "whataboutism"?