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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    New Age of Chinese Nationalism Threatens Supply Chains

    Relations between China and the West are off to a rocky start in 2021. Observers watching China and the U.S. trade accusations in Alaska, and Europe and China trade sanctions days later can be forgiven for a cold feeling in the pit of their stomach. Beijing’s tolerance for economic risk in the service of nationalism has rarely looked higher.


    That could bode ill for many, not least Taiwan and the littoral states of the South China Sea. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China has metastasized into a broader geopolitical confrontation—while China’s armed forces are nearing parity with the U.S. in the former’s backyard. Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone have at times become a near daily occurrence since late 2020, while the U.S. is busy rallying allies such as Japan to plan for contingencies.


    A significant conflict between the U.S. and China in East Asia is still unlikely, but it can no longer be ruled out as an implausible tail risk. Companies need to start considering what that could mean. And governments need to find mutually acceptable ways to take the temperature down if they want regular business to remain possible.

    The most likely scenario is still that the catastrophic potential downsides of any armed conflict keeps minds focused. Even “gray zone” tactics like a blockade of Taiwan would be hugely risky for Beijing—Taipei might respond, for example, by cutting off China from all semiconductor sales. U.S. and allied trade and financial sanctions would multiply the impact. Taiwan alone supplies around a third of China’s semiconductors, including some exclusively produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , the world’s largest contract chip maker.

    It is no longer completely clear economic deterrence alone is enough to prevent Beijing from attempting its long-treasured goal of absorbing Taiwan if it perceives distraction or weakness, even leaving aside the rising risk of accidental conflict.


    The decision to jeopardize China’s painstakingly negotiated bilateral investment treaty with Europe by directly targeting members of the European Parliament on Monday is only the latest sign of Beijing’s rising willingness to accept big economic risks. Hong Kong’s national-security law is the most obvious example, but the U.S. failure to move Beijing on fundamental issues over the course of the trade war can be seen partly in the same light.

    Beijing risks boxing itself in through its domestic messaging. One possible reason for China’s aggressive response to allied sanctions is that the country’s state media had just spent days playing up China’s muscular stance against the U.S. in Alaska.


    One popular People’s Daily social-media post led with two photos: one of China officials facing down the U.S. delegation across the table during talks in Alaska, and one of Europe, Japan and the U.S. facing down China after the disaster of the Boxer Rebellion in 1901, an episode that Beijing views as part of its “century of humiliation” at the hands of Western imperialists. The message was quite clear: China is back, unafraid and powerful. Faced with the unfavorable optics of united Western sanctions a few days later, an aggressive response was perhaps inevitable.


    All of this is a worrying signal for the future—especially if, as seems likely, Chinese growth keeps slowing and the leadership keeps leaning ever more heavily on nationalist pride to keep the country behind it. Companies need to start thinking about what that really means. In the event of a trade or financial embargo imposed on China during a crisis in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, would their assets and staff in China be safe from becoming bargaining chips? Beijing has actually been relatively restrained in its use of corporate blackmail compared with the levers available to it, recognizing the immense potential collateral damage—but in a real national crisis it is difficult to know how the government would react.




    Washington and Beijing both need to find acceptable ways to take the temperature down. One possibility might be the sort of confidence-building steps that helped derail the cycle of escalation in the Cold War.


    For instance, both countries have a critical interest in keeping chips flowing from Asia, just as the world has long had an interest in Middle Eastern oil flowing smoothly. Discrete steps that helped ensure that—for example, a limited resumption of chip sales to Huawei Technologies in exchange for limited, verifiable reductions in Chinese armaments targeting Taiwan—might be one way forward. There are no easy answers but creative thinking is clearly needed to find ways to enhance Taiwan’s security while also strengthening deterrence and lowering the risk of accidental conflict.


    Meanwhile, companies in the region need to start preparing for contingencies. As Covid-19 and the recent chip shortage have both shown, supply-chain diversification and redundancy is expensive—but possibly less expensive than not having it in the end.


    New Age of Chinese Nationalism Threatens Supply Chains - WSJ

  2. #2
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    The new age of Chinese nationalism seems to threaten a lot more than supply chains. In the cybersecurity world, China (and Russia, which runs similar nationalism campaigns) seems to have its finger prints on some of the most important security breaches ever. And those are just the ones we know about. Imagine all the breaches that were conducted so expertly that they were never found.

    I think cyber attacks pose more of a risk to life as we know it than supply chain disturbances, especially since we seem so ill-prepared on every level.

    It really is a scary world.

    Watch out for Russia and China, UK'''s cyber security boss says | Reuters

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by TTraveler View Post
    life as we know it than supply chain disturbances, especially since we seem so ill-prepared on every level.
    List 1.

    Pray tell, who has China sanctioned and stopped delivery to?

    Company xxx to countries yyy will be sufficient.


    List 2

    Pray tell, what countries have sanctioned China and stopped delivery to?

    Country xxx to company yyy will be sufficient.

    I suspect list 2 is the longer.
    Last edited by OhOh; 14-06-2021 at 02:24 PM.

  4. #4
    I'm in Jail

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    ^ You're being even more disingenuous than usual

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    ^ You're being even more disingenuous than usual
    a.k.a waffling.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    a.k.a waffling.
    He was always a nutter but of late he seems to be on a role.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    He was always a nutter
    Too many hallucinogenics in my teens.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Too many hallucinogenics in my teens.
    A false attribution to say the least. Do not dare to insinuate that hallucinogens turned you into a drone of the CCP. That is beyond disgusting.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    hallucinogens turned you into a drone
    Opening up ones mind to alternative possibilities is a more precise definition. IMHO.

    Is that a camel passing through a street lights cone of illumination, or two backpackers wearily trudging home at midnight?

    Why are the repeating carpets woven patterns growing vertically into mountains In sync with the never ending record.

    So much to decide, but indefinite time to ponder, and giggle of course.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  10. #10
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Opening up ones mind to alternative possibilities is a more precise definition. IMHO.

    Is that a camel passing through a street lights cone of illumination, or two backpackers wearily trudging home at midnight?

    Why are the repeating carpets woven patterns growing vertically into mountains In sync with the never ending record.

    So much to decide, but indefinite time to ponder, and giggle of course.

    Well it's good to know the answer, and that one fits.

    Hallucinogens with you and Gancha + Vodka with Klondick.

    The only question now is how much longer TD has to put up with your shyte.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Hallucinogens with you and Gancha + Vodka with Klondick.
    It maybe a generation thing. Although, if I remember rightly, we called it "Ganja".

    "Ganja is one of the oldest and most commonly used synonyms for marijuana in the English language. Its usage in English dates to before 1689."

    Ganja - Wikipedia

    It maybe an India visiting hippies phrase.


    As opposed to "What's your favourite tipple", "The worlds best Full English breakfast", threads.

    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    how much longer TD has to put up with your shyte
    Is someone forcing you to read my posts or the threads I start?

    Take a grip of your own life.

    Or are you "Waiting for Godot"?

    "The play is a typical example of the Theatre of the Absurd, and people use the phrase 'waiting for Godot' to describe a situation where they are waiting for somet,
    hing to happen, but it probably never will. ..."
    Last edited by OhOh; 14-06-2021 at 10:52 PM.

  12. #12
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    You are absolutely stark raving bonkers, aren't you?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallelujah View Post
    You are absolutely stark raving bonkers, aren't you?
    Yes! Yes he is.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by hallelujah View Post
    You are absolutely stark raving bonkers, aren't you?
    I stick to the defined rules, my families, my agreed obligations.

    I smile at many posters here attempting to silence free speech.

    Throw off your shackles and regain your free spirit.

    Enjoy your day.

  15. #15
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Although, if I remember rightly, we called it "Ganja".
    The pronunciation in Thailand is 'Gancha'.

    And I admit, your posts have a certain 'can he possibly post something as nonsensical as last time' interest, however limited.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    I stick to the defined rules
    You don't . . . but that's just you . . . lying like it's second nature

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    I stick to the defined rules, my families, my agreed obligations.

    I smile at many posters here attempting to silence free speech.

    Throw off your shackles and regain your free spirit.

    Enjoy your day.
    The problem is you only champion countries that attempt to stifle the very free speech you talk about. Your hypocrisy seems to have scaled heights previously thought impossible.
    Well done OhOh.

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    I stick to the defined rules, my families, my agreed obligations.

    I smile at many posters here attempting to silence free speech.

    Throw off your shackles and regain your free spirit.

    Enjoy your day.
    Hoohoo is a big proponent of free speech.


    New Age of Chinese Nationalism Threatens Supply Chains-chinafreespeech-jpg

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Cow View Post
    to stifle the very free speech you talk about.
    Not all concur with your opinion as to who are the main stiflers.

    Which "opinion yardstick" game shall we play today?



    TD's full members

    TD's most prolific posters

    TD's most opinionated posters

    Thailand's citizens

    Asia's citizens

    BRI Country's citizens

    G7's citizens

    G20's citizens

    UN Country's citizens

    Our Suns planet's citizens

    ....

    Your own single "opinion", as are mine, is somewhat insignificant, yes?
    Last edited by OhOh; 15-06-2021 at 12:59 PM.

  20. #20
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    Waffle waffle waffle.
    Let's just narrow it down to a few places where there is no free speech ... China, NK, Iran etc... Oh Russia ... Unless you count being locked up for it

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Waffle waffle waffle.
    Let's just narrow it down to a few places where there is no free speech ... China, NK, Iran etc... Oh Russia ... Unless you count being locked up for it
    You forgot

    Cambodia
    Thailand
    Vietnam
    Laos
    Myanmar

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    I stick to the defined rules, my families, my agreed obligations.

    I smile at many posters here attempting to silence free speech.

    Throw off your shackles and regain your free spirit.

    Enjoy your day.
    drunk posting

  23. #23
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    drunk posting
    "a $5 bottle of blue nun wine"

  24. #24
    I'm in Jail

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    Yes, that's what the mainlander did. Not 500 . . . 5.

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