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  1. #51
    Thailand Expat raycarey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    Well lets ask the question, If I was in the states and I traveled to a resort being I live there am I tourist?


    when people from the US midwest go to florida or california for a winter holiday, they are most certainly tourists. just ask the locals.

    if people who live and work in isaan goes to samui for a few days, of course they are tourists. just ask the locals.

    how is this confusing?

  2. #52
    CCBW JPPR2's Avatar
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    Fair enough, I stand corrected.

    Lets move on shall we......

  3. #53
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Still - definition of tourist set aside. Call 'em visitor non-residents - Just how much money are they going to leave?
    That's what matters.

    40 million tourists spend a massive amount of cash -

    TAT Revises 2020 Overseas Forecast To 16 Million Visitors

    Apr 18, 2020 - TAT Revises 2020 Overseas Forecast To 16 Million Visitors. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has revised their full-year 2020 projection to 16 million overseas visitors. Based on the number this is an approximate drop of 60% over 2019, when visitors nearly hit 40 million for the full year.


    Bleak, Bleak, Bleak...



  4. #54
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    It's a massive blow pretty much all around the world, of course.

  5. #55
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    It's a massive blow pretty much all around the world, of course.
    Yup, two impact zones - medical and economic.

    We are six months into Covid and really do not know the damage it has caused.

    I would not want to be a 30/40/50's earner trying to navigate the unknowns. How can you possibly plan a family, future and retirement with the amount of uncertainty existing today?

    Good luck to all - prosperity doesn't seem to be on the horizon.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    Fair enough, I stand corrected.
    You are not a tourist, if you just go on a holiday in your home country.

    I have spoken

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    I guess if we want to split hairs we could say that anytime ones leaves their homes they are a tourist...no? You decide.
    If one travels from their home to another persons home and stays overnight, is one a tourist or if only to deliver a family member to another part of the family just and unpaid taxi driver?

    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Well no, it's not a personal decision or splitting hairs
    The Thai IO's are legendary when faced with a fact, but then one is aware, "all decisions are at their discretion".

    An example:

    After hearing the original rumour that the Thai land borders may close, I attempted to exit Thailand to obtain a 1 year visa. Not required at the time but I wanted to ensure I wasn't possibly overstaying. This was prior to the amnesty being announced.

    Upon arrival I offered my passport to the IO at the Thai exit box. He looked at it and enquired my reason for travel. He said well you can exit but you will not be able to enter back into Thailand.

    He said you are travelling on a UK passport.

    I pointed out that I was living in Thailand and had been for a number of years and would be back in 2 or 3 days. He said entries for UK citizens are banned. I replied I am not travelling from the UK to Thailand, I am travelling from Thailand to Laos and back to Thailand. At the time travellers, by air from the UK, were banned.

    After he had a discussion with his colleague he stated, "You will not be allowed to enter Thailand". I replied thank you and returned home.

    Was I a tourist, was I travelling from the UK to Thailand? No to both.

    TIOs, don't you just love them.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  8. #58
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    I pointed out that I was living in Thailand and had been for a number of years and would be back in 2 or 3 days. He said entries for UK citizens are banned.
    Seems pretty clear.

    I replied I am not travelling from the UK to Thailand
    He never said you were.

  9. #59
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    While we're on the subject, you have to wonder how they are checking the validity of all the documents they are requiring even the current batch of permitting visitors.

    I can pay $100 for a test at a local hospital and get a piece of paper saying that I am Covid-free.

    But once those bits of paper are out in the wild, they are going to be piss easy to forge or scan.

    Are they actually going to check each one with the issuer?

    Otherwise they are going to have to insist on a test and quarantine period for every arrival, with mandatory quarantine for anyone testing positive.

    Logic suggests that it should be depending on the infection situation where you live not where your passport is from.

    I have been WFH since the shit hit the fan and I know I'll get a -ve test if I do one.

    But because the locals have a habit of going to visit 27 of their close family members without a mask the numbers are still way too high for mine (or any of the Middle East countries) to be considered collectively safe.

    If there is an opportunity to travel I'll take every precaution going to avoid getting it on the plane, but not to spend two weeks locked in a mates house or a hotel. Utterly pointless.

    The problem is that as soon as they open any country worth visiting, the feeble minded will attempt to travel as well, bleating about their "rights" while they are doing it and fucking it up for everyone else.

  10. #60
    The Dentist English Noodles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    However businesses go bust and others replace them very quickly in Thailand. Capitalism red in tooth and claw works much better than the cosseted version in other countries, where the rash are protected.
    The old order changeth, yielding place to new.

  11. #61
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    As we know, low wage economies in Asia inevitably spawn a culture of overmanning and this is nevermore apparent than in Thailand. However, when profits are squeezed, either by economic forces or as in this case by an external shock, costs have to be reduced and employment is a factor that has a greater impact and yields immediate results.

    The tourist industry last year was anticipating visitor numbers approaching 28-30 millions, a projection that will now fall to 2002 levels of 8 million at best.

    Taking Pattaya as an example, recent growth has been founded on an explosion in the Chink/Asean market increasing footfall up to 8 million visitors a year. This has precipitated investment in swathes of new hotels, new fish restaurants and tourist sites but doubtless this was financed by loans that are now no longer serviceable - Pattaya is a ghost town still and only comes alive at weekends when Thai visit in their droves as they take advantage of the government's compulsory discount programme.

    With the resurgence of the virus around the world it is clear that bankruptcy is a fact of life for many in the tourist industry.

    The local traders have finally acknowledged that if it were not for we retiree expats there would be no business at all during the week.

    Only a matter of time the economy reflects th new reality across the board. The relatively high baht is further undermining exports and as the situation develops it is inevitable GDP contracts to levels of a decade ago.

  12. #62
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    As we know, low wage economies in Asia inevitably spawn a culture of overmanning and this is nevermore apparent than in Thailand. However, when profits are squeezed, either by economic forces or as in this case by an external shock, costs have to be reduced and employment is a factor that has a greater impact and yields immediate results.
    And of course those at the bottom of the pile are always the most heavily impacted.

    A return to the fields, particularly in the North East, could have a political impact too.

    Political stability is always somewhat grudging when not backed up by democracy.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    You are not a tourist, if you just go on a holiday in your home country.

    I have spoken
    Probably needs a chune..


  14. #64
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    ^At home he acts like a Tourist

    Good 'chune'

  15. #65
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    Very sad sad state of affairs for Thailand and many other places that run on tourism.

    I still hope to visit in a year or two anyway. I still have friends teaching there and no virus made them leave. They took a break in Pattaya for a few months and then back up to CM to teach.

  16. #66
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Thailand does not 'run on tourism'.

    Nowhere near it.

  17. #67
    The Dentist English Noodles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Thailand does not 'run on tourism'.

    Nowhere near it.
    It's a fair chunk of it though. 2019 it was over 20% of GDP and projections are 30% of GDP by 2030.

  18. #68
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    ^Yeah, exactly, it may not run on it, but it depends on it.

  19. #69
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by English Noodles View Post
    It's a fair chunk of it though. 2019 it was over 20% of GDP and projections are 30% of GDP by 2030.
    Have you a link for those stats?

  20. #70
    The Dentist English Noodles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Have you a link for those stats?
    Prayut: Zones vital for growth

    Tourism in Thailand - Wikipedia

  21. #71
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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  22. #72
    The Dentist English Noodles's Avatar
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    ^Did you find the stats I quoted in the links? I can screenshot them and post them up here if needed.

    Just let me know....

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by English Noodles View Post
    It's a fair chunk of it though. 2019 it was over 20% of GDP and projections are 30% of GDP by 2030.
    The methodology used in that analysis was rubbish.

    The reality is somewhat different.

    Historically tourism receipts represented around 5.6% - 8% of GDP but with the exponential growth in numbers, mainly Chinks, this proportion is now around 12-14% but of course COVID will see this back to 12%.

    Rising numbers as a speculative guide to increased contribution to GDP is not reliable given per capita spend and in Thai/Asian terms optimism is often conflated with wishful thinking and exaggeration.

    The notion that Thailand will derive 30% of GDP from tourism is idiotic and does not reflect the value added to the economy. It is merely some crude calculation publicised by a vested interest who probably has no idea of the metrics involved and is as misleading as the 20% current calculation.

    It costs to provide a service to those tourists and that has to be subtracted from their contribution in order to assess the true contribution to GDP.
    Last edited by Seekingasylum; 16-07-2020 at 01:05 PM.

  24. #74
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    A very small portion of ASEAN's population even has a passport, so if that grows then it isn't impossible to get to 30%.

    The fact is though that one of the attractions of tourism to a politician is that that if it fails, and never gets to make up 30% of GDP, then there are so many factors beyond Thailand's control that it can be attributed to.

    So - great if it happens, not Thailand's fault if it doesn't. An irresistible combination for any politician.

    The bottom line though, as we should know now better than ever, is that so, so many things can go wrong.

    And meanwhile, people gotta eat.

  25. #75
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    You are not a tourist, if you just go on a holiday in your home country.

    I have spoken
    I respectfully disagree.

    If you're travelling in your country but in a different region and the locals speak a different dialect, you're considered as a tourist and treated as one - a local tourist (not international).

    Example: I speak Tagalog, which is the dialect of people living around Manila. Whenever I go to the southern parts of the country, where they speak different dialects, I get the tourist treatment and get quoted with the tourist price.

    Example: when I went to Bohol island, I asked the price of a key ring in Tagalog. Seller said it was 3 pieces for 100 pesos. I walked away to look at other things. A few seconds later, another girl asked the same guy for the price, but she asked in Cebuano/ Visayan (the local dialect), the price for her was 4 for 100 pesos. Tourist price for me, because I didn't speak the dialect. Take note that we were all Filipinos there, so no "skin tax". And yes, I considered myself a local tourist, since we had to fly to Bohol from Manila.

    Re: tourism industry, yes the virus is having a huge impact on it. Tourism industry doesn't have a huge contribution to GDP in PI (unlike in Thailand), but OFW (overseas Filipino worker) contributions do. Because of the virus, many OFWs were laid off and had to come home. Now a lot of them are unemployed. Some have been featured in local news clips - they used their savings to put up small businesses.

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