Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 28
  1. #1
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    31,716

    Stranded and Broke Russian Tourists Take Refuge in Phuket Temple

    Tourism authorities in Phuket are trying to help three stranded Russian tourists who have now taken shelter at a local temple. Their flight home from the Phuket Airport was cancelled because of the Covid-19 State of Emergency.


    Local officials have been asked to contact the Russian embassy about the plight of the three Russians. They are presently sheltering at Wat Mai Khao, said Napasorn Kakai, director of the Phuket office of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).


    Alexsei Galiev, 31, Nikolai Sharov, 29, and Sofia Sharova, 24, said the airline they were booked on had had stopped flying from Phuket International Airport because of transport restrictions imposed by the Phuket Governor. The closure of the Airport was in an effort to control the coronavirus. Patong, Phuket is presently a hotspot for the Covid-19 Coronavirus in Thailand.



    Governor ordered Phuket International Airport Shutdown


    According to the Bangkok Post the Russian tourists were supposed to return to Russia on March 25.


    After the flight was cancelled, they had no money left and decided to walk from the Phuket airport. When they saw the temple they asked to take refuge there.


    The three slept inside a run-down building and converted a concrete platform into a makeshift kitchen. They have been living off cooked instant noodles donated by local residents.


    They were also given mosquito nets to sleep under, according to the TAT officials and local police.


    Winai Sae Iew, the Mai Khao village head, said provincial public health experts had visited the tourists and thermal scans showed none of them had a fever.


    The Russians were also given face masks to wear while the authorities relocate them to proper accommodation.


    Ms Napasorn said the TAT office estimated between 200 and 300 foreign tourists might be stranded in Phuket. This follows the Governors recent lockdown prompted by the spread of Covid-19 Coronavirus.

    Many touristsleft with no place to go after their flights were cancelled. They also could not re-book flights home on other airlines.


    She suggested that local administrative authorities and municipalities accommodate stranded tourists in schools which are now closed for the summer holiday.

    Stranded and Broke Russian Tourists Take Refuge in Phuket Temple

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    31,716
    Foreigners on Koh Samui Complain About Immigration Lineups

    Foreign Tourists stranded on the Island of Koh Samui in Thailand have reported they are being treated badly by Immigration officials. A German tourist whose name is being withheld by The Nation said he and other tourists had to be in a crowded office at the Immigration centre in Koh Samui to apply for visa extension.

    He alleged crowds of tourists waiting for Visa’s also created risk of the Covid-19 Coronavirus. Because officials did not impose social distancing at the Immigration center.

    He also accused Thailand of taking advantage of tourists who could not fly back home due to flight cancellations and many countries imposing restriction on people movement.

    “Thailand is taking advantage of tourist by forcing them to come and extend their visas for money. While all reasonable countries in the world extend the visa automatically for a certain date,” he said.


    The Thai government announced on Tuesday it would extend visa automatically for tourists who had entered the country after March 1st,2020 The German tourist, entered Thailand in February, said that visa extension should cover also those who entered Thailand before March 1, 2020.


    In response to the complaint, an official at the Foreign Ministry told The Nation that Immigration authorities are aware of the issue. Furthermore the Cabinet had agreed in principle about the automatic visa extension. Officials were working out details and will shortly make an official announcement, he added.


    According to the Pattaya Mail, Immigration Bureau Chief Pol Maj Gen Sompong Chingduag said foreigners can apply for this special visa extension at immigration offices in the provinces they are staying.


    One of the most crowded immigration offices is that of Koh Samui (Samui Island) in Surat Thani. The officials have eased crowding and facilitate social distancing in queues. Above all to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

    Foreigners on Koh Samui Complain About Immigration Lineups

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    31,716
    Onerous new document requirements for stranded foreigners announced

    Thailand’s Immigration Bureau announced yesterday that 9 separate documents are now required for foreigners stranded here to extend their stay for up to 30 days. New requirements include land deeds, rental contracts, even selfies of foreigners at their accommodations, even as scenes of chaos and massive queues at immigration continue unabated. A Thai Immigration spokesman defended the inconvenience on the grounds of “national security.”


    Countless long queues have been packing immigration offices around Thailand as foreigners scramble to sort out their visa situation and apply for extensions to avoid overstays. The long queues, many in stinking hot conditions around the country at the moment, are putting Thai immigration staff, and the applicants, in a dangerous NON social distancing situation.

    MORE Onerous new document requirements for stranded foreigners announced | The Thaiger

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat
    aging one's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    Today @ 08:12 AM
    Posts
    18,286
    Oh yeah here we go. For a country literally dependent on tourism this for sure is the right thing to do..

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    66,205
    She suggested that local administrative authorities and municipalities accommodate stranded tourists in schools which are now closed for the summer holiday.
    Even though there are literally thousands of hotel rooms empty.

    Yeah, that makes sense.

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat
    Chico's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 03:05 PM
    Location
    I'm Dead
    Posts
    5,312
    ^ you do realise rooms need to be paid for ?

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    66,205
    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    ^ you do realise rooms need to be paid for ?
    What, you mean like the ones...

    used by state agencies as field hospitals, temporary medical shelters for people under medical observation or being used to monitor the coronavirus situation.
    You dumbarse.

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    10,779
    Some hotels in Pty have been ordered to close, my mate's hotel got away with it (for now, pending review next week) by closing as a hotel and reopening a moment later as serviced apartments.

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat
    Klondyke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:34 AM
    Posts
    6,960
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Originally Posted by Chico
    ^ you do realise rooms need to be paid for ?
    What, you mean like the ones...

    used by state agencies as field hospitals, temporary medical shelters for people under medical observation or being used to monitor the coronavirus situation.
    Surely reserved for the stranded (broke) tourists...

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:03 AM
    Posts
    14,451
    Thailand is not "dependent" on tourism, the contribution to GDP is around 12-15% depending on calculation.

    But, yes, they are truly quite a nasty bunch.

    As I said before, nationals from over 35 countries can enter Thailand for tourism for up to 30 days with no pre-clearance or even a rudimentary interview at the port of entry - " how long you stay?" - is about the level of scrutiny but now these very same people have to produce more fucking evidence than I do to get my retiree extension because of " national security".

    I used to think they are simply the stupidest folk on the planet but I think it is more the case thy are not only unhinged but also no more than a bunch of unfeeling tossers.

    The truth of the matter of course is that they are worried sick they'll lose money now that the stupid closure of the airport has stranded thousands.

    Pretty soon there'll be an edict that no farang can leave his quarters without a certificate attesting they are COVID free, issued no later than 48 hours from the date of the proposed excursion.

    Frankly, I blame the embassies, they should have all kicked up a stink and threatened the MFA with a shit storm of bad publicity while refusing to write these stupid letters their nationals can't get home etc.

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat
    Chico's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 03:05 PM
    Location
    I'm Dead
    Posts
    5,312
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    You dumbarse.
    Right ok,the Thai govt are going to pay for hotel rooms for farang.

  12. #12
    Thailand Expat
    taxexile's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    16,128
    Thailand’s Immigration Bureau announced yesterday that 9 separate documents are now required for foreigners stranded here to extend their stay for up to 30 days. New requirements include land deeds, rental contracts, even selfies of foreigners at their accommodations, even as scenes of chaos and massive queues at immigration continue unabated. A Thai Immigration spokesman defended the inconvenience on the grounds of “national security.”
    the thai authorities thanks to the inflated egos that hide their pathological insecurities and their need to dominate and control have always regarded foreigners with suspicion and sought to restrict their freedoms. the immigration department, with their army of dependent and uniformed jobsworths revel in the power they wield over visitors and long stayers alike, all the while accepting backhanders from the very people they should be deporting or denying entry to.

    this latest farce is beyond shameful, and surprisingly has yet to be picked up by the international press.

    but it should be noted that they also treat their own citizens like pigs.


    I left Amsterdam on Thursday, the 2nd and landed at suvarnabhumi airport at around 10 am on Friday, the 3rd. We then went through document checking to see if we had a fit to fly certificate licensed by a doctor and a recommendation letter from the Thai embassy. They then checked our temperatures and brought us, and people from other flights into a room to wait.

    We weren’t told what we were waiting for. We were given water and euro cakes and mama noodles but not enough for everyone. Later they passed around small mcchicken burgers. 5 hours passed by and officials came to tell us that a new rule had passed while we were in the air, that everyone who lands in Thailand has to go through a 14 day quarantine (not at home). Shortly after, they had us form into queues to walk to get our checked baggage.





    The officials couldn’t answer any questions about what we were doing next. They didn’t know where they were gonna take us, hell they didn’t even know which carousel our bags were gonna be on. (After having 5 hours to check these things). They kept telling us to wait and ask questions to the people who they were gonna drop us off with. After we got our bags, we loaded up in big buses (รถทัวร์) and they brought us to the AOT fire station near the airport and had us sit in chairs outside.




    We arrived here at 4:30 pm (These chairs would later all be filled as more busses started to unload people) and again the officials would not answer any questions regarding what we were going to be doing. We were just told to sit and wait while some people (I assume lawmakers) were having a meeting about the procedure. About an hour later the man in charge there made an announcement that everyone that lived in Bangkok could have a relative come pick them up after they log some paperwork and people from outside of Bangkok would be transported to their town via tour busses.

    Some people (including myself) told family members to come to this fire station and await our pickup. Then at about 6 pm officials reversed course and said relatives can no longer pick us up and that we would all be getting on the tour busses to get medically tested for covid-19. Initially they would not tell us where we would be getting tested, or how long it would take.

    Then they said it would only be a quick test then we can go on our way. Then they said we will have to stay one night overnight. I asked police officers and AOT officials and representatives from the department of health what the situation really was and each one gave different answers. It was obvious none of them really knew what was going on (or if they did, they were not being honest about it). At this point, it is 6:30 and everyone is loaded up on tour busses. For some reason we didn’t leave the parking lot until 8 pm. After leaving, we finally found out from the bus driver that we were going to Sattahip (สัตหีบ). We then realized they were probably taking us to the navy base there where they recently quarantined students returning from Italy, and people from Wuhan before that. We still didn’t know whether we would be tested and released or have to stay there for 14 days because the last thing we heard from officials is that they are taking us to a “testing facility” for an unknown purpose.

    Along the way, we stopped at a gas station between chonburi and pattaya. We saw that the other busses were unloading and people were going to the bathroom (there were 7 busses with 126 people total) so we asked our bus driver if we could also get down and he said no, then left the bus. I went to the drivers seat and found the button to open the doors myself and we all got down. At this point we still haven’t gotten any real food since the mcchicken burger (which a lot of people were not satisfied with because it’s not ข้าว). I walked to the 7/11 to buy some food but was denied by the 7/11 staff as they said they were instructed by the police not to sell us anything. At this point some people on my bus found out from the news that 150 passengers from New York that landed in BKK hours after us had been let go to self quarantine at home.


    So to paint the picture of the situation we were in at the time: it is now 9:30 pm and we haven’t eaten a real meal since being in the airplane, which also wasn’t much of a real meal. So really people hadn’t eaten for 11 and a half hours spent in the airport, fire station, and bus PLUS the 12 hours on the plane. Then we arrive at a gas station and are told we’re not allowed to leave the bus, so we break out, then we’re told we’re not allowed to purchase any food, then we find out that people who arrived after us had been let go.

    All this coupled with the fact that we still had no idea what we were going to do once we arrived at Sattahip navy base. This culminated in strong emotions and half the people on my bus started to protest getting back on the bus because we felt like the entire situation was managed extremely poorly and we were being treated inhumanely. The 2 police officers transporting us did not have a grip on the situation and after pleading with them to call their superiors, they finally did and 2 or 3 trucks of special police unloaded at the gas station. There were almost 20 police officers and the นายอำเภอ had come as well. These officers stood in a circle around us and threatened to take action if we did not get on the bus, so we got back on the bus.

    I apologize for the quality of the images, they are screenshots from videos I took.


    At midnight we finally arrived at Sattahip navy base. The bus unloaded and we were greeted by medical workers in hazmat like suits with some of them wearing what appeared to be gas masks. They fumigated our luggage and told us to form groups of 3 people of the same gender to share a room with. This was the first time we were informed of the details of the way we would be quarantined.


    Each room has 3 people. There are only 2 beds that are about 1 meter apart from each other and the 3rd person has to sleep on the floor. No one is allowed to leave their room under any circumstance for 14 days. (Note: I’m not talking about the building, I’m talking about the actual room). Each room has a balcony and they have made a pully system using rope and baskets and they bring food to your room by putting it into the basket and pulling the rope so the basket reaches your balcony. I asked if my parents came to visit me, if I would be allowed to see them if I kept distance from them. They said no, only video calling is allowed.




    I asked one of the medical workers there what her profession was. She said she’s a nurse. I asked her, as a nurse, could you recommend me to stay in a small room with 2 other strangers as a good decision for my health? She did not answer my question and looked uncomfortable. I asked another nurse sitting beside her and she said she didn’t know. Later on, I would ask one of the navy soldiers whether he would willingly stay in a room with 2 other people and he said ไม่มีทาง. 17 of us from my group had decided we were going to refuse to stay here on the grounds of it being a risky health decision. The officers and navy there did not force us to go but did not give us any other options either. At this point it’s 1:30 am. There is a lot of arguing going on between officers and my group as we tried to layout the whole picture of what we had been through up until this point and all the officers kept saying was “we understand but that was other officers and we don’t know anything about it”. No one was willing to accept any responsibility or call in anyone with more authority to assess the situation. They were standing their ground and so were we.

    This would go on for a few hours until around 3:30 am when they said they would bring us back to suvarnabhumi airport and let the authorities there handle us from there. We were not told what our options were once we got to the airport or what a likely scenario was. It was a big risk because we had no idea what would be awaiting us but we decided to go as we felt nothing could be worse than staying there at Sattahip. A bus came about 15 minutes later and we loaded ourselves on the bus. For some unknown reason the bus wouldn’t leave until 5 am. At this point we are very worn out. We still hadn’t eaten or slept since we landed in bkk nearly 20 hours earlier. Finally we arrived Bangkok but we were not taken to the airport, but the Elegant airport hotel near suvarnabhumi.




    The hotel is operated by hotel staff and ส.ห military officers. They were however mostly very nice and apologetic of how we had been treated previously by their colleagues. We were given separate rooms and allowed to walk around the building every now and then but were instructed to stay in the room as much as possible. food is delivered by the hotel staff to your door 3 times a day. Everybody was satisfied with the situation here at the hotel and wished they had brought us here in the first place.



    In conclusion: there are a lot of details regarding how we were treated that I could not expand on because I cannot remember the exact dialogue but believe me, the officers were very mean and rude to us, treating us like we were criminals rather than Thai citizens who they are supposed to be serving and protecting. The entire procedure was completely unorganized with different people telling different information, it was obvious there was no communication between different police units, airport officials, government lawmaking officials, and department of health officials. Disregarding all of that, the goal of the entire operation is to ensure the safety and health of us, a group of people considered to be at risk of contracting covid-19.

    The operation was a massive failure in all our eyes because we were constantly tightly packed with a lot people, such as the bus, the fire station, and the navy base in Sattahip. They did not insure our safely at all on that front during the entire day and a half we were under their direct watch. Not only that but the quarantine situation in Sattahip is what most people consider absolutely unacceptable.

    Even when I arrived at the elegant airport hotel, an officer who’s looking after us told me there is no way he could stay in a room with 3 people for 2 days and not go insane, let alone 14 days. The entire operation seemed to be put into place before it was properly thought through and ready to be put into action. It seemed like an effort to do SOMETHING and not เสียหน้า because of the man who died a few days prior on public transport after arriving on an international flight being very sick and was allowed to go home.


    I wanted to write this to inform you of the situation from my point of view as I am seeing on the news that the press has not presented the POV of the passengers and people are turning on the passengers or disobeying authorities, going so far as suggesting the 150 passengers from the NY flight should be shot dead for endangering the country. This is an extremely uninformed opinion and I believe it is the job of the press to find the truth and shed light to it. The group from NY protested, and so did we, but only because we deserved better than what we were getting. Thank you very much for reading.

    Thailand quarantine

    a collapse of their tourist industry is no more than they deserve.
    Last edited by taxexile; 05-04-2020 at 06:07 PM.

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:03 AM
    Posts
    14,451
    I'm not sure what's best though Tax.

    The fuckup is of course typical Thai in that they dream up these procedures and measures without any forethought. They simply bang on ahead and when they hit the wall of stupidity they bounce off and have another go depending on whether or not the people concerned are high or low in the pecking order of their ghastly society.

    But there's you quarantined in a place with a high death rate albeit with a rule of law but where the horizon is no more than a few hundred yards, and then there's me free to poodle about but have self quarantined with access to a beach on my doorstep where I take my daily swim and shelter under the palms/casuarinas and have a fine view out to Koh Larn - Wongamat Bay is looking nice with very few tourists and a mere smattering of Russian families and the water is clear.





    Thank God I got my retirement extension earlier this year.

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat
    taxexile's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    16,128
    actually my horizon is about 30 miles, i'm on the sixth floor with an uninterrupted view over to the pennines in the w.

    but i take your point. personally i think the statistics are twisted, about 50% of the totals here would be dying anyway and the quarantine, whilst seeming like perfectly good common sense at first, now seems to be a bit extreme, the effect on the economy and on peoples livelihoods will be felt for years to come if it goes on for more than a month. strictly quarantine the over 60's and the asthmatics and let the rest get on with their lives as near as normal as possible with restrictions for social distancing only. herd immunity will prevail, and after after 2 or three months the oldies can be let out. a few youngsters will have succumbed to the virus, but hey! thats life. and as we all know ..... life is pain.

    we were in two minds whether to stay on in hua hin or return to the uk, but we decided to return when they started to restrict flights and impose travel conditions. so far we are glad we did, the weather is decent enough and although shopping for food has to be planned well in advance with rubber gloves, masks and disinfectant gel, the food shortages are over and there is a "wartime community spirit" developing, at least round where we are living. netflix and kindle help pass the time, and thankfully we have a sizeable balcony to use.

    heres an interesting article from the spectator.

    Every day, now, we are seeing figures for ‘Covid deaths’. These numbers are often expressed on graphs showing an exponential rise. But care must be taken when reading (and reporting) these figures. Given the extraordinary response to the emergence of this virus, it’s vital to have a clear-eyed view of its progress and what the figures mean. The world of disease reporting has its own dynamics, ones that are worth understanding. How accurate, or comparable, are these figures comparing Covid-19 deaths in various countries?

    We often see a ratio expressed: deaths, as a proportion of cases. The figure is taken as a sign of how lethal Covid-19 is, but the ratios vary wildly. In the US, 1.8 per cent (2,191 deaths in 124,686 confirmed cases), Italy 10.8 per cent, Spain 8.2 per cent, Germany 0.8 per cent, France 6.1 per cent, UK 6.0 per cent. A fifteen-fold difference in death rate for the same disease seems odd amongst such similar countries: all developed, all with good healthcare systems. All tackling the same disease.

    You might think it would be easy to calculate death rates. Death is a stark and easy-to-measure end point. In my working life (I’m a retired pathology professor) I usually come across studies that express it comparably and as a ratio: the number of deaths in a given period of time in an area, divided by that area’s population. For example, 10 deaths per 1,000 population per year. So just three numbers:

    The population who have contracted the disease
    The number dying of disease
    The relevant time period

    The trouble is that in the Covid-19 crisis each one of these numbers is unclear.

    1. Why the figures for Covid-19 infections are a vast underestimate


    Say there was a disease that always caused a large purple spot to appear in the middle of your forehead after two days – it would be easy to measure. Any doctor could diagnose this, and national figures would be reliable. Now, consider a disease that causes a variable raised temperature and cough over a period of 5 to 14 days, as well as variable respiratory symptoms ranging from hardly anything to severe respiratory compromise. There will be a range of symptoms and signs in patients affected by this disease; widely overlapping with similar effects caused by many other infectious diseases. Is it Covid-19, seasonal flu, a cold – or something else? It will be impossible to tell by clinical examination.

    The only way to identify people who definitely have the disease will be by using a lab test that is both specific for the disease (detects this disease only, and not similar diseases) and sensitive for the disease (picks up a large proportion of people with this disease, whether severe or mild). Developing accurate, reliable, validated tests is difficult and takes time. At the moment, we have to take it on trust that the tests in use are measuring what we think they are.

    So far in this pandemic, test kits have mainly been reserved for hospitalised patients with significant symptoms. Few tests have been carried out in patients with mild symptoms. This means that the number of positive tests will be far lower than the number of people who have had the disease. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has been trying to stress this. He suggested that the real figure for the number of cases could be 10 to 20 times higher than the official figure. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus (all derived from lab tests) will be 10 to 20 times lower than it appears to be from the published figures. The more the number of untested cases goes up, the lower the true death rate.

    2. Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate
    Next, what about the deaths? Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate – it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

    This nuance is crucial [at]– not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on the health service in coming days. Unfortunately nuance tends to be lost in the numbers quoted from the database being used to track Covid-19: the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. It has compiled a huge database, with Covid-19 data from all over the world, updated daily – and its figures are used, world over, to track the virus. This data is not standardised and so probably not comparable, yet this important caveat is seldom expressed by the (many) graphs we see. It risks exaggerating the quality of data that we have.

    The distinction between dying ‘with’ Covid-19 and dying ‘due to’ Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs. Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukaemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for 2 years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for Covid-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). Covid-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths. Consider two more cases: a 75-year-old man with mild heart failure and bronchitis; a 35-year-old woman who was previously fit and well with no known medical conditions. Both contract a chest infection and die, and both test positive for Covid-19. In the first case it is not entirely clear what weight to place on the pre-existing conditions versus the viral infection – to make this judgement would require an expert clinician to examine the case notes. The final case would reasonably be attributed to death caused by Covid-19, assuming it was true that there were no underlying conditions.

    It should be noted that there is no international standard method for attributing or recording causes of death. Also, normally, most respiratory deaths never have a specific infective cause recorded, whereas at the moment one can expect all positive Covid-19 results associated with a death to be recorded. Again, this is not splitting hairs. Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had Covid-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to Covid-19, the Covid trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by Covid-19 – would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

    3. Covid-19 and a time period

    Finally, what about the time period? In a fast-moving scenario such as the Covid-19 crisis, the daily figures present just a snapshot. If people take quite a long time to die of a disease, it will take a while to judge the real death rate and initial figures will be an underestimate. But if people die quite quickly of the disease, the figures will be nearer the true rate. It is probable that there is a slight lag – those dying today might have been seriously ill for some days. But as time goes by this will become less important as a steady state is reached.

    Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 per cent in Germany. If we assume that about one third of the recorded deaths are due to Covid-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for Covid-19 would be 0.08 per cent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 per cent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 per cent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

    Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases – a death rate of 6.0 per cent. If one third of the deaths are caused by Covid-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 per cent and the number of deaths due to Covid-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March – roughly 46,000.


    The number of recorded deaths will increase in the coming days, but so will the population affected by the disease – in all probability much faster than the increase in deaths. Because we are looking so closely at the presence of Covid-19 in those who die – as I look at in more detail in my article in the current issue of The Spectator – the fraction of those who die with Covid-19 (but not of it) in a population where the incidence is increasing, is likely to increase even more. So the measured increase in numbers of deaths is not necessarily a cause for alarm, unless it demonstrates excess deaths – 340 deaths out of 46,000 shows we are not near this at present. We have prepared for the worst, but it has not yet happened. The widespread testing of NHS staff recently announced may help provide a clearer indication of how far the disease has already spread within the population.

    The UK and other governments have no control over how their data is reported, but they can minimise the potential for misinterpretation by making absolutely clear what its figures are, and what they are not. After this episode is over, there is a clear need for an internationally coordinated update of how deaths are attributed and recorded, to enable us to better understand what is happening more clearly, when we need to.

    John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

  15. #15
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    66,205
    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Right ok,the Thai govt are going to pay for hotel rooms for farang.
    Do you think they are going to provide free staff to keep the schools open?

    You dumbarse.


  16. #16
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    66,205
    The deaths apparently due to Covid-19, the Covid trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by Covid-19 – would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.
    There was a chap on the Beeb the other day saying that the number of deaths due to Covid are people who probably would have died this year anyway.

    It's just having them in a rush that's the problem.

    And the 20% that might die without treatment who may otherwise survive.

    Scientists still really don't have much of a handle on why this disease can affect some people far more severely than others, all things being equal.

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    10,779
    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    the thai authorities thanks to the inflated egos that hide their pathological insecurities and their need to dominate and control have always regarded foreigners with suspicion and sought to restrict their freedoms. the immigration department, with their army of dependent and uniformed jobsworths revel in the power they wield over visitors and long stayers alike, all the while accepting backhanders from the very people they should be deporting or denying entry to.

    this latest farce is beyond shameful, and surprisingly has yet to be picked up by the international press.

    but it should be noted that they also treat their own citizens like pigs.

    a collapse of their tourist industry is no more than they deserve.
    Their disregard is shameful and unhinged, but don't expect anyone on the gov payroll to agree.

    If I am obliged to present myself at an immigration office for any reason before this thing has cleared, it will be with a nasty cough and/or a sneezing fit. Not sure if that's allowed in a Thai gov office during a national security threat, but one way to find out.

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:03 AM
    Posts
    14,451
    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    actually my horizon is about 30 miles, i'm on the sixth floor with an uninterrupted view over to the pennines in the w.

    but i take your point. personally i think the statistics are twisted, about 50% of the totals here would be dying anyway and the quarantine, whilst seeming like perfectly good common sense at first, now seems to be a bit extreme, the effect on the economy and on peoples livelihoods will be felt for years to come if it goes on for more than a month. strictly quarantine the over 60's and the asthmatics and let the rest get on with their lives as near as normal as possible with restrictions for social distancing only. herd immunity will prevail, and after after 2 or three months the oldies can be let out. a few youngsters will have succumbed to the virus, but hey! thats life. and as we all know ..... life is pain.

    we were in two minds whether to stay on in hua hin or return to the uk, but we decided to return when they started to restrict flights and impose travel conditions. so far we are glad we did, the weather is decent enough and although shopping for food has to be planned well in advance with rubber gloves, masks and disinfectant gel, the food shortages are over and there is a "wartime community spirit" developing, at least round where we are living. netflix and kindle help pass the time, and thankfully we have a sizeable balcony to use.

    heres an interesting article from the spectator.
    Essentially, like RT, anything published by the Spectator is automatically suspect not least because it is a recognised organ disseminating propaganda by right wing Tory laissez-faire establishment figures, among others more comfortable with the dog-eat-dog principle of governance.

    But the irony inherent in this article is quite delicious in that its thrust, that the COVID victims among the weak, the infirm and the aged exaggerate the danger of the disease, is now cast into a different light by the news BoJo the Clown, a former editor of the Spectator, is now in hospital with a deteriorating condition.

    Karma.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Trapped in an old mans body
    Posts
    9,098
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    If I am obliged to present myself at an immigration office for any reason before this thing has cleared, it will be with a nasty cough and/or a sneezing fit.
    A cunning plan to get a free covid-19 test.

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat
    Bogon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:47 AM
    Posts
    4,980
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Even though there are literally thousands of hotel rooms empty.

    Yeah, that makes sense.
    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    ^ you do realise rooms need to be paid for ?
    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Right ok,the Thai govt are going to pay for hotel rooms for farang.
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Do you think they are going to provide free staff to keep the schools open?

    You dumbarse.
    Just to clear this up. The government can house these destitute farang in some of the 30 golf courses or hotels that are owned by the Thai army.

    Sorry, only have a Wiki source, Can't be arsed to dig deeper.

    Royal Thai Army - Wikipedia

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:03 AM
    Posts
    14,451
    Only natural that the armed forces should own hotels, golf courses, boxing arenas and tv stations. They're a vital contribution to the overall strategic plan ensuring national security.

  22. #22
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    66,205
    Quote Originally Posted by Bogon View Post
    Just to clear this up. The government can house these destitute farang in some of the 30 golf courses or hotels that are owned by the Thai army.
    But they won't.

  23. #23
    Thailand Expat
    Bogon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:47 AM
    Posts
    4,980
    ^ That was my point without stating it.

  24. #24
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Last Online
    Today @ 04:26 AM
    Location
    Way, Way South of the border now - thank God!
    Posts
    21,891
    Quote Originally Posted by Bogon View Post
    ^ That was my point without stating it.
    By doing so you've 'smart-scared' chico off the thread

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    10,779
    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    A cunning plan to get a free covid-19 test.
    Walk in with a bit of pepper on your palm and never mind your number they'll have you stamped and out in a jiffy.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •