The COVID-2019 Thread

[misskit]

^ Exactly.

[harrybarracuda]

^Yep. Another thing is how many people needing treatment for other diseases, surgeries, etc have been fatally delayed due to this pandemic. I imagine the strain on the health services after this lockdown will be overwhelming.

They only cancelled elective surgeries and they have never run out of hospital beds, at least in the UK.

[OhOh]

^ Actually, I think it has a lot to do with people dying.

By design?

[NamPikToot]

Air force provides anti-covid barriers for use in taxis

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1914196/air-force-provides-anti-covid-barriers-for-use-in-taxis

[Loy Toy]

^ There seems to be many small industries springing up making things to comabt this virus.

I know of 1 lady who is making hundreds of masks everyday and she has employed others to help her.

Out of this very negative event some positive things are also happening.

[NamPikToot]

^ mmm. Ministry of Trans & TAT to Prayut - we need a way to protect Thai customers and tourists in taxis until this COVID thing blows over. Prayut i'll get that well know centre of design and manufacturing excellence into action.

[Norton]

Many are quite happy to keep in a 'safe place'.

Agree but many are not. Would depend on individual situation. Suppose there are polls somewhere on how many but folks unemployed and suffering financially would be eager to take the risk. I would.

[OhOh]

A new interactive display app.

Uses EU data and allows user defined country list, data type and date selection. Display by graphs/colour coded world map:

Total confirmed COVID-19 cases - Our World in Data

[tomcat]

It's time to face grim Covid-19 reality



CHARTCHAI PARASUKFREELANCE ECONOMIST

PUBLISHED : 7 MAY 2020 (Bangkok Post)
NEWSPAPER SECTION: NEWS

This April 23 photo shows an empty Siam Square with the pandemic having shut down the economy. Nutthawat Wicheanbut

At the onset of the coronavirus outbreak, there emerged an outbreak containment option called "Hurt and then ending" which in Thai is jeb tae jop. The complete lockdown of Wuhan was a prime example of that. In Thailand, the lockdown measure was first implemented in Buri Ram before it become a standard practice nationwide. The effectiveness of the measures varies across the globe -- from a seemingly complete success story in Wuhan to a not-yet sustained success in Spain, to a success and then failure in Singapore. I do not think anybody doubts the effectiveness of the lockdown on controlling the outbreak, but many, including myself, are starting to come out and question the cost of lockdown, which I have previously mentioned.

I was watching a programme on Japan Public Television (NHK World) and was surprised to hear that Japan's largest life assurance firm -- Nippon Life -- is concerned about the prolonged lockdown measure imposed by Shinzo Abe's government. According to its research, the current one-month lockdown due to end yesterday will cause 1 million people to become unemployed. Based on 30 years of statistics, there is almost a one-to-one relationship between unemployment and suicide. From that statistical relationship, I can calculate that 1 million more unemployed workers could mean an additional 10,000 suicide cases. Japan currently has about 500 Covid-19 deaths, but unemployment-induced deaths could be 20 times higher than that. Now you see why Nippon Life is concerned. The company has to pay for death claims regardless of the cause of death.

A one-month extension of the lockdown to May 31 has already been announced in Japan. According to the study, one million more people are expected to lose their jobs as a result -- meaning the lockdown will shed 2 million jobs. The title of the presentation, by the way, is "Not a choice between 'saving lives' and 'saving the economy'".

When you think about it, that really says it all.
It does not matter whether you support strong containment measures or if you prefer a more balanced approach. Either way, there are two indisputable facts to consider.

Fact one: a vaccine will not end the outbreak. It is every government's dream that the discovery of a Covid-19 vaccine will put an end to this, after which life and the economy can get back to normal. Recently, an €8 billion (280.2 billion baht) fund financed by 30 countries was set up to to develop a vaccine. This pooling tactic was implemented to accelerate the development of a vaccine and prevent a single lab or country controlling the supply. Right now, there are around 70 labs worldwide working around the clock to find a cure.


I have no doubt that a vaccine will be discovered soon, but I have strong doubts about production capability limits. There are already several promising developments in China and at Oxford University, with tests at the human-testing level. It does not matter which lab is the first to come out with a vaccine. The formula will be shared around the globe to quickly produce the vaccine for distribution.

Here is the real problem. The world population is 7.8 billion and, thus, we need 7.8 billion doses of vaccine. How fast can the labs produce it? Let's optimistically assume that every lab combined can turn out 1 million doses of vaccine a day. It would take 7,800 days to completely vaccinate the world population, which means the last person to get vaccinated will have to wait 21.4 years. Whoever that person is, I am afraid they might not live that long.
The first option is to boost production capabilities and facilities. Fine; hire 1,000 hand Buddhas to work there. But the production of vaccines will be limited by raw materials used in the manufacturing process like glass tubes. One million doses of vaccine need one million glass tubes and one million syringes for injection. Syringes are the most critical supply as the vaccine cannot be taken orally. I do recommend that my readers stock up on syringes. It could save your life and your friends' lives one day.

A more practical option is not to vaccinate the entire population. A limited (privileged) number of people will get to be vaccinated according to the availability of supply. To vaccinate only 1% of the population, we will need 78 million doses of vaccine. I do hope that all the labs can supply that amount in a year. Two questions. How does one choose privileged persons? And would it make any differences if only 1% of the population is "clean" while the remaining 99% are roaming around as potential carriers?

The issue of a vaccine is pointless as only a small number of people will be fortunate enough to be vaccinated. I am not going to bother discussing the cost issue. Those privileged few can surely pay whatever price you ask.
Fact 2: lockdowns are effective only for a limited time and limited territory. There are two issues here -- asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers are difficult to trace, and the outbreak is global. Even if a country shows low or zero numbers of infected patients, there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers walking around ready to transmit the virus.

According to the Mers outbreak statistics, about 29% of infected people show no symptoms. For Covid-19, studies of limited cases indicate about 18% to 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. Therefore, one can never really get rid of the virus, particularly after the reopening of borders.
When a vaccine, if available at all, is in limited supply and a resurgence of infections is certain, my recommendation is to live with the virus as we live with other infectious diseases.

Protect as many as we can without destroying economies and social lives. Once doctors and governments wake up from the dream vision of a virus-free world, it will be time to talk with economists on how to do damage control.

[Warwick]

Air force provides anti-covid barriers for use in taxis

It would be interesting to know how they filter the air - as presumably there is some form of feed of cold air from the Air Con.

[Warwick]

It's time to face grim Covid-19 reality

Posted, criticised and discussed, yesterday. Do try to keep up.

[bowie]

The basic fact(s) still remain:

Humankind does not have an effective method of measuring Covid infections. So, everything projected or proposed is a best guesstimate. We are flying blind.

Since the onset of Covid it is characterized as very contagious and very harmful to a certain segment of our population.

For the others - as has been stated:
60% of those infected are asymptomatic, having no symptoms, basically Typhoid Mary types. Spreading the disease unknowingly.
20% show mild or minimal symptoms. And most would still attend work - you have got to make money, bills to pay, kids to feed.
15% get sick, bedrest type sick, fatigue, cough, the sniffles; decongestant, cough syrup, acetaminophen, aspirin, lots of fluids.
5% are critical in varying degrees, many requiring hospitalization, respiratory failure, ventilators and potentially fatal.

Fatality at risk group are the over 80's and those with underlying medical conditions and/or compromised immune systems.
Realize 15% of the over 80's who become infected become fatalities.
Stated another way - 85% of the over 80's who become infected Survive.


Basically we have a seriously contagious disease nearly impossible to contain - sorry folks, social distancing is against human nature and cannot be enforced for more than a short period of time - people not only won't listen they willfully ignore restrictions on their personal freedom and we cannot turn the world into a police state. Realistically, we cannot stop a contagious disease when more than half of those infected do not know they are infected.

These are lessons learned - at the onset of Covid we knew nothing about it, in comparison to what we know today. We still do not have viable metrics to measure Covid and the rates of infection, immunity, cured (recovery), and fatality. The fatality rates quoted are very flawed. There is no standardization - if a person, any person, died having the symptoms of, or similar to Covid's symptoms - they ae chalked up as a Covid fatality. A matter of convenience.

The economic damage is done - historically massive unemployment numbers worldwide.

So, the questions are - How long are we going to fool ourselves into thinking our unworkable and unenforceable social distancing platform is going to save us?

And, more importantly, how long are the younger working adults willing to sacrifice their future financial security to save the elderly population?
Are we willing to save grandpa when the children start crying fo their dinner?
And, how far are we willing to sacrifice so an 80 plus year old can live an additional few "poor quality of life" years?
How much more TV and card games do the 80+ year olds really need?

[kmart]

The basic fact(s) still remain:

Humankind does not have an effective method of measuring Covid infections. So, everything projected or proposed is a best guesstimate. We are flying blind.

Yet, there is a vaccine on the way?

[bowie]

Yet, there is a vaccine on the way?

Maybe, MERS and SARS are corona viruses yet we do not have a vaccine for them.

Saw an interview with the CEO of one of the vaccine manufacturers, one of the persons "in-the-know", it is his job. Paraphrasing his answers to questions. We are five years out from a vaccine having an impact on the numbers. Develop, test, manufacture, inoculate...

In his opinion it takes five years from the start to see the impact of a vaccine in the number of infections.

And, questions concerning the vaccine solution - who will be paying for a vaccine against an infection that only impacts 40% of those infected?

And, tin foil time, come on antivaxers, what about the side effects of the vaccine?

But, back to the CEO's statement, we heavily funded and investigated SARS and MERS and were unable to come up with a vaccine for those corona class viruses, will we draw a blank this time around?

If we do find a vaccine that works, how effective will it be? 60%? 80%? 90%? and, will it be a one shot or a series of shots? and, how long will the immunity last? six months? 1 year? 2 years?


Each day we learn more concerning the Covid Corona. Each day we answer a question or two which raises another four or five questions.

[kmart]

^US producers of vaccines are not even legally responsible for any damages to people for their "products". The Govt takes care of that..

Why the Government Pays Billions to People Who Claim Injury by Vaccines

A little-known deal protects drug companies in the U.S. from being sued

Interesting read: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...rogram/589354/

[jabir]

^ There seems to be many small industries springing up making things to comabt this virus.

I know of 1 lady who is making hundreds of masks everyday and she has employed others to help her.

Out of this very negative event some positive things are also happening.

For sure, just like animals we also adapt to new conditions. Not all of us, most will watch what happens, some will quickly give up and die, others dust themselves off and play the best they can with what they have, while there will always be a smart handful that look at the new situation and work on filling its needs.

I think Darwin got that bit right.

[Cujo]

Maybe, MERS and SARS are corona viruses yet we do not have a vaccine for them.

Saw an interview with the CEO of one of the vaccine manufacturers, one of the persons "in-the-know", it is his job. Paraphrasing his answers to questions. We are five years out from a vaccine having an impact on the numbers. Develop, test, manufacture, inoculate...

In his opinion it takes five years from the start to see the impact of a vaccine in the number of infections.

And, questions concerning the vaccine solution - who will be paying for a vaccine against an infection that only impacts 40% of those infected?

And, tin foil time, come on antivaxers, what about the side effects of the vaccine?

But, back to the CEO's statement, we heavily funded and investigated SARS and MERS and were unable to come up with a vaccine for those corona class viruses, will we draw a blank this time around?

If we do find a vaccine that works, how effective will it be? 60%? 80%? 90%? and, will it be a one shot or a series of shots? and, how long will the immunity last? six months? 1 year? 2 years?


Each day we learn more concerning the Covid Corona. Each day we answer a question or two which raises another four or five questions.

Yes, there's a whole lot of WTFs with this. Now they've found the virus in the sperm of recovered patients.

[Iceman123]

Yes, there's a whole lot of WTFs with this. Now they've found the virus in the sperm of recovered patients

Who are they? How did they find it?
Did they utilise the services of Seeking Asylum?

[NamPikToot]

It would be interesting to know how they filter the air - as presumably there is some form of feed of cold air from the Air Con.

Detail, details. I'm sure they have a way of sanitising the money too.

[HuangLao]

Agree but many are not. Would depend on individual situation. Suppose there are polls somewhere on how many but folks unemployed and suffering financially would be eager to take the risk. I would.

This thing has most certainly taken it's toll towards the everyday working classes [in which are the real backbones of any economy] the world over.
The great quandary as to what lies ahead might be considered quite shaky.

Divisions in political paradigms might take a hard hit permanently.

[Cujo]

This thing has most certainly taken it's toll towards the everyday working classes [in which are the real backbones of any economy] the world over.
The great quandary as to what lies ahead might be considered quite shaky.

Divisions in political paradigms might take a hard hit permanently.

Absolutely. The world will be quite different in the future to what it would have been otherwise. Quite how we don't yet know but we can speculate.

[harrybarracuda]

Maybe, MERS and SARS are corona viruses yet we do not have a vaccine for them.

They eventually fizzled out and never had the global reach of SARS-COV2, so the drug companies never saw the value of ploughing money into the effort.

Some of them might be kicking themselves now...

[harrybarracuda]

Another Republican governor in a rush to reopen: He didn't like the projections his team of experts were making regarding the spread of the virus so his answer was to disband the team.

These Republicans really don't care about people dying.

Arizona responds to projected rise in COVID-19 cases by ordering experts to stop making models | Salon.com

[harrybarracuda]

And baldy orange cunto has tried to bury CDC guidance on safe reopening. He doesn't care about people dying either.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) — The Trump administration shelved a document created by the nation’s top disease investigators with step-by-step advice to local authorities on how and when to reopen restaurants and other public places during the still-raging coronavirus outbreak.

The 17-page report by a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention team, titled “Guidance for Implementing the Opening Up America Again Framework,” was researched and written to help faith leaders, business owners, educators and state and local officials as they begin to reopen.

It was supposed to be published last Friday, but agency scientists were told the guidance “would never see the light of day,” according to a CDC official. The official was not authorized to talk to reporters and spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

The AP obtained a copy from a second federal official who was not authorized to release it. The guidance was described in AP stories last week, prior to the White House decision to shelve it.

https://apnews.com/7a00d5fba3249e573d2ead4bd323a4d4?utm_source=Twitte r&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

[Bettyboo]

An article from 'Arry's favourite Indian "news source" saying the EU is being a lightweight as per usual...