The COVID-2019 Thread

[bowie]

Big brouhaha over not much.

Seconded

[Latindancer]

Here is one reason why the outbreak has taken hold in Iran :


Fears mount as Iranian 'lick the shrine' videos go viral amid coronavirus outbreak.

Online videos are being shared in Iran of people licking and kissing a Muslim shrine to show they are not scared of the country's growing coronavirus outbreak.
The videos, which have reportedly emerged from Iran's coronavirus epicentre of Qom, show several devotees spreading misinformation about the virus, with some seemingly forcing their children to take part.
Trying to prevent panic, the government has not locked down Qom but has imposed broad restrictions such as limitations on who is allowed in and out of the city.


While the city of Qom is the epicentre of #CoronaVirus in Iran, authorities refuse to close down religious shrines there.

These pro-regime people are licking the shrines & encouraging people to visit them.

Iran's authorities are endangering lives of Iranians & the world



Fears mount as Iranian 'lick the shrine' videos go viral amid coronavirus outbreak | SBS News

[bowie]

Fears mount as Iranian 'lick the shrine' videos go viral amid coronavirus outbreak.

Worked with an Indian girl during the Kumbh Mela festival and asked her about the people that bathed in the polluted Ganges - her answer "straight faced" and fully believing is that the "sacred holiness" of the river fully protected the worshipers from the pollution. Without knowing, or confirming, but, between the raw sewage, industrial waste and dead carcasses dumped in the river - divine protection would be required to keep bathers healthy.



India's Kumbh Mela festival, which is expected to draw a record 15 million ... Pilgrims bathe at the confluence of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers
The Ganga River, known as the Ganges under British rule, is one of the most revered waterways in the world -- and also among the most polluted.

[Bettyboo]

based on what scientific evidence?

As repeatedly stated, it takes years after the event to check the data and get accurate numbers.

I'm basing my 4%ish number on 2 main areas:

1) The final SARS statistics. At the time, SARS mortality rates were said to be 4% ish. Now, the number is said to have been between 9%-15%. Obviously, a virus such as CoronaVirus, which especially attacks the old, will tend to have a higher mortality rate in countries with ageing population such as Japan and Korea. List of countries by median age - Wikipedia Offset against that to some extent is the quality of healthcare. It takes years to get the final data and process it, but SARS is a fair indication - the final mortality rate was over double that discussed in the media at the time.

Even then, the rates are so varied, here's some SARS info from this link: (China coronavirus outbreak: South Korea reports first case).

SARS was a relatively rare disease; at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8422 cases with a case-fatality rate of 11%.^[9]
The case-fatality ratio ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group of the patient.^[5] Patients under 24 were least likely to die (less than 1%); those 65 and older were most likely to die (over 55%).^[21]




2) The John Hopkins chart - it just seems the best ongoing date easily available. Here it is today, showing a rate between 3-4%. But the recovery (or not) of those 89,000 is ongoing, so the mortality rate for that snapshot must increase (unless there is a miracle and everyone infected who is going through the virus recovers...).



^ if you look at the total deaths and total recovered over on the right then the mortality rate is over 6%.

Countries with the virus has risen to 67. That's one third of the world's countries.

Edit to add this from today's BBC site - potentially 10x higher than the numbers given...







Korea, is getting worse and worse, 476 new patients in the last 24 hours. In around 10 days, Korea has gone from 50 patients to 4,212 - the government has said the numbers will continue to grow. At anything like current rates, they'll be over 10,000 cases within 2-3 weeks.

[jabir]

Just mho without data on the way it appears to be going, 1/3 of countries infected translates to at least 50% very soon, since many authorities are still either complacent in context of doing as much as they could, or do not have the resources and facilities to contain its spread.

Meanwhile, total lockdown of any industrial country spells doom, so that reality might also account for part of the 'complacency' above.

[harrybarracuda]

Indonesia finally comes clean.

JAKARTA (REUTERS) - Indonesian President Joko Widodo said on Monday (March 2) that two Indonesians had tested positive for coronavirus, marking the first confirmed cases in the world's fourth most populous country.


The two had been hospitalised, Joko told reporters at the presidential palace in Jakarta. He did not specify where the patients were being treated.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-confirms-two-coronavirus-cases-president

[NamPikToot]

Well the UK has it covered, too much to post but the link on the Beeb shows the NHS advice

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51674696

[lom]

if you look at the total deaths and total recovered over on the right then the mortality rate is over 6%.

Bollox Betty, mortality rate is defined as part of confirmed cases and not part of whatever-you-want.
You do have some big problem with basic statistics.

[PlanK]

[AntRobertson]

NZ will see your religious right-wing whackjob making fundamentally fucking stupid and needless comments and raise you our own:


Brian Tamaki's coronavirus comments slammed as 'dangerous' by Anglican vicar - NZ Herald


Context: Brian Tamaki the self-appointed 'Bishop' that is, not the vicar calling him out.

[Klondyke]

Murder probe sought for South Korea sect at center of coronavirus outbreak

SEOUL (Reuters) - The government of Seoul asked for a murder investigation into leaders of a Christian sect at the center of the country’s deadly coronavirus outbreak, saying the church was liable for its refusal to cooperate with efforts to stop the disease.

A large majority of the more than 4,000 confirmed cases of the South Korean outbreak, the largest outside China and still growing, have been linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive movement that reveres founder Lee Man-hee.

Park Won-soon, mayor of the capital Seoul, said if Lee and other leaders of the church had cooperated, effective preventive measures could have saved those who later died of the virus.

“The situation is this serious and urgent, but where are the leaders of the Shincheonji, including Lee Man-hee, the chief director of this crisis?” Park said in a post on his Facebook page late on Sunday.

Seoul’s city government said in a separate statement that it had filed a criminal complaint with the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office, asking for an investigation of Lee and 12 others on charges of murder and disease control act violations.

The prosecutors’ office said it had received the complaint and was reviewing it.

Health authorities said the vast majority of the 3,000 cases confirmed in Daegu, another Korean city, were linked to a branch of the church there, where a person who had tested positive in February attended services twice.

Many have blamed the church’s secretive nature and tightly packed conditions at services for the large number of cases linked to it.

An additional 600 cases were detected in the province surrounding Daegu.

South Korea’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 476 new cases of the coronavirus on Monday, raising the total to 4,212 with 22 deaths.
The church issued a statement Sunday reiterating calls for an end to “stigmatisation, hatred and slander” against its followers, saying it was cooperating with the government.

Health authorities said they have obtained a list of 317,320 Shincheonji members and “trainees”, but have been told by some local governments that it was not exhaustive.

Murder probe sought for South Korea sect at center of coronavirus outbreak - Reuters

[Bettyboo]

Lom: Bollox Betty, mortality rate is defined as part of confirmed cases and not part of whatever-you-want. You do have some big problem with basic statistics.


I offered both interpretations with the relevant %.

The first, between 3-4% ignores the outcome of 40,000 confirmed cases (if 3-4% of them die, as inline with the known cases, then guess what % that would equal over the total 89,000...). The second interpretation only takes into account the number of people infected who have either recovered or died; known outcomes - it's far more accurate for that period in time, but may change.

That is why, as I stated time after time after time, we do NOT know the mortality rate until long after the event when all the data has been collated and analysed. Your 'analysis' just ignores 40,000 people who are known to be affected; well, it ignores them as total cases and also uses them in the calculation of lowest possible mortality rate (conveniently ignoring that we don't know if any of the 40,000 other will recover or die - your 'definition' very conveniently has them figured in to all recover).

The rate you suggested is dumb. It means that if 10 people are confirmed as having rabies then on the first day and then onwards, the mortality rate is zero even though none will recover and that is known. The mortality rate is known to be at or near 100%, yet your model only changes when somebody dies, changes to 10%, then when the second person dies it changes to 20% and so on. It's unsituated and pointless, it will never be accurate until all 10 die (or recover), so why bother giving out statistics which are known to be wrong??? Far better to factor in known outcomes in a situated manner.

Either way, I gave both statistics, so stop being such a narrow-minded wuss; the world isn't binary...

Consistently the same problem with the likes of you and Cyrille: decontextualised prescription. Alas, that is not how the world works. Some of the 40,000 unresolved cases will end in the patients recovery and some will end in death; we don't know yet, thus to include them in a finite calculation will give inaccurate results.

[HermantheGerman]

Here is one reason why the outbreak has taken hold in Iran :
Fears mount as Iranian 'lick the shrine' videos go viral amid coronavirus outbreak.

I guess: "Takes a licking and keeps on ticking" can not be applied here.

[HermantheGerman]

NZ will see your religious right-wing whackjob making fundamentally fucking stupid and needless comments and raise you our own:


Brian Tamaki's coronavirus comments slammed as 'dangerous' by Anglican vicar - NZ Herald


Context: Brian Tamaki the self-appointed 'Bishop' that is, not the vicar calling him out.

Don't forget to be fair. I know how hard it must be for you


Tunisian cleric Bechir Ben Hassen, who lives in France, has no doubt about why Allah punished the Chinese with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

According to him, “The virus is a soldier in Allah’s army. Today, it’s toppling people as if they were insects. The Chinese authorities imposed a siege on a million Uighur Muslims, and now, 50 million Chinese are besieged because of the virus, and they can’t find a cure for it because this is God’s will.

Plot against Islam? In ill-prepared Mideast, coronavirus spreads conspiracies too - Iran - Haaretz.com

[AntRobertson]

Don't forget to be fair. I know how hard it must be for you

Err, wot?

That makes precisely zero sense in the context of what I posted. Entirely misses the point in fact.

Stop and take a breath before being all shouty and Yerman, Herman.

[harrybarracuda]

Bollox Betty, mortality rate is defined as part of confirmed cases and not part of whatever-you-want.
You do have some big problem with basic statistics.

47% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[Bettyboo]

I thought this was likely, but seems to be confirmed here that phone location tracking is used by the police/government regarding tracking CoronaVirus folks.




& an interesting piece on Al Jazeera about how technology is being used in China with regards to the virus:

How China is using AI and big data to fight the coronavirus | China News | Al Jazeera

[bowie]

^ good find - Big Brother is Watching

[harrybarracuda]

Phone location tracking has been in use for many years now around the world.

Of course in police states like Chinastan they don't need warrants.

[harrybarracuda]

Fingers crossed!

A member of a council advising Iran’s supreme leader has died after falling sick from coronavirus. He has become the first top official to succumb to the disease which is affecting members of the Islamic Republic’s leadership, which has the highest death toll in the world outside China. Expediency Council member Seyyed Mohammad Mirmohammadi died aged 71 at a hospital in Tehran, according to state radio. As well as acting as advisers, the council also settles disputes between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and parliament.

Read more: Adviser to Iran's supreme leader dies from coronavirus | Metro News
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: Metro - Home | Facebook

[harrybarracuda]

An interesting comment from an Italian hospital.

People who already had pre-existing health conditions are said to be the ones most affected, but Cremona hospital has confirmed “there are some young people in intensive care. This virus is 500 times more ferocious than SARS.”

Juventus In Lockdown As Three Players Test Positive For The Coronavirus

[bowie]

^ hmm... "This virus is 500 times more ferocious than SARS.”

Gotta wonder just what metric they're using to quantify that statement.

Ferocious?

[crackerjack101]

[harrybarracuda]

^ hmm... "This virus is 500 times more ferocious than SARS.”

Gotta wonder just what metric they're using to quantify that statement.

Ferocious?

I think you can get the gist of what they're saying if you look at one of the definitions of the word:

INFORMAL
very great; extreme.

"a ferocious headache"

[harrybarracuda]

"Q: What happened at the Cobra meeting?

The spokesman says the PM has set that out in his clip for broadcasters. A UK-wide action plan for coronavirus was agreed. It will be published tomorrow, the spokesman says."