The COVID-2019 Thread

[harrybarracuda]

We are now 8 days after the last day of Songkran. There has not been a significant rise in reported cases in Thailand yet.

It was down to 16,000 new cases per day on April 19th and then jumped to 21000 for the next two days. How hard is this for you to grasp? Or is a 30% jump not "significant" where you come from? If your boss offered you a 30% pay rise, would you turn it down because it's "not significant"?

As much as I would love it to be a sign that it's continuing to drop, I would suggest the numbers on Tuesday after a full reporting day will still be around the 20,000 mark, hopefully not higher, and a sign that the bug is running out of people to infect.

As for your theory about weekends, no, the bug does not relax at weekends, it's just that there is less testing and less reporting.

Honestly, I struggle to understand what you think you are looking at.

[Neverna]

It was down to 16,000 new cases per day on April 19th and then jumped to 21000 for the next two days. How hard is this for you to grasp?

April 19th: 16,891
April 20th: 20,455
April 21st: 21,931

Or is a 30% jump not "significant" where you come from?

It's not unusual for Thailand this year. Percent rises in the last 9 weeks of Thailand's weekly rises and falls:

39.5%, 16.7% 30.8%, 37.1%, 22.7% 30%, 20%, 20.7% 29.8%.

The 2 day rise starting on 19 April is the mean for that period. Like I said, not a significant increase. And that rise came after a 30% dip.

I would suggest the numbers on Tuesday after a full reporting day will still be around the 20,000 mark, hopefully not higher, and a sign that the bug is running out of people to infect.

For the past 15 weeks, the lowest figure of the week has appeared on a Tuesday.

As for your theory about weekends, no, the bug does not relax at weekends, it's just that there is less testing and less reporting.

I have no theory about weekends like you suggest. It is you that has proposed a theory about weekends. I have posted facts. It is a fact that the LOWEST figure of the week appears on a Tuesday. It has been that way for the last 15 weeks. The weekends have the higher figures. How do you explain that when, according to you, "there is less testing and less reporting"?

Honestly, I struggle to understand

You do appear to be struggling. I'll give you that.

[harrybarracuda]

I have no theory about weekends like you suggest. It is you that has proposed a theory about weekends. I have posted facts. It is a fact that the LOWEST figure of the week appears on a Tuesday.

Are you just making this shit up now?

Mon Apr 18th: 16891
TUES Apr 19th: 21931

Yeah, I give up, it seems things work differently in your little world. You probably aren't looking at the time of the report.

By the way, there is no "theory" involved in weekends being non-working days for most people, unless things happen differently on whatever dozy fucking planet you live on.

[Neverna]

Are you just making this shit up now?

Mon Apr 18th: 16891
TUES Apr 19th: 21931

Nope. Just quoting the reported figures.








How about you?

[Neverna]

By the way, there is no "theory" involved in weekends being non-working days for most people, unless things happen differently on whatever dozy fucking planet you live on.

Super.

Interesting how the weekends have higher figures with "less testing and less reporting" and for the past 15 weeks Tuesdays have had the lowest reported cases ... "after a full reporting day".

[misskit]

Post-Exposure Quarantine Reduced to Five Days

BANGKOK (NNT) - The recommended self-isolation period for people exposed to COVID-19 has been lowered following the approval of a new guideline to reduce the quarantine period to five days starting next month.


Endorsed by the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), the new recommendation calls for people to self-isolate for five days after a "high-risk exposure event," followed by five days of self-monitoring for suspicious symptoms.


During isolation, antigen tests are recommended with the onset of suspicious symptoms. In the absence of symptoms, antigen tests should still be performed on Day 5 and Day 10 following exposure.


After Day 5, the exposed person can return to work barring any positive test results, but should strictly comply with Universal Protection measures, refrain from visiting crowded places and avoid gatherings or group activities.


The term "high-risk exposure" is applicable to those in close physical proximity (less than two meters) to a confirmed case for more than 5 minutes and without wearing a mask.


The term also applies to those directly exposed to droplets from patients through sneezing or coughing, and who share a poorly ventilated space with a patient for more than 30 minutes.


Post-Exposure Quarantine Reduced to Five Days

[misskit]

Trouble ahead for Beijing.


China Covid death toll rises as Beijing warns of 'grim' situation


Shanghai reported 39 Covid deaths Sunday, official data showed, its highest daily toll since a weeks-long lockdown started, while China's capital Beijing warned of a "grim" situation with rising infections.


The world's second-largest economy has been struggling to stamp out its worst Covid-19 outbreak in two years with a playbook of harsh lockdowns and mass testing as it sticks to a strict zero-Covid policy, taking a heavy toll on businesses and public morale.


The cosmopolitan business hub of Shanghai has been almost entirely locked down since the start of the month, snarling supply chains, with many residents confined to their homes for even longer as it became the epicentre of the outbreak.


China's biggest city only announced its first fatalities on April 18, despite reporting thousands of cases each day in recent weeks.


It reported 39 more deaths on Sunday, National Health Commission data showed, bringing its total toll to 87, while the country logged nearly 22,000 new local virus cases.


Shanghai's previous highest daily toll since lockdown was 12, reported a day earlier.


The city of 25 million has struggled to provide fresh food to those confined at home, while patients have reported trouble accessing regular medical care as thousands of health staff were deployed for Covid testing and treatment.


Censors have battled to scrub the online backlash against the prolonged lockdown.


Meanwhile 22 new infections were reported in the capital Beijing, after warnings from an official on Saturday that the city must take urgent action.


Health official Pang Xinghuo said preliminary observations suggested Covid had been "spreading invisibly" within the capital for a week now, affecting "schools, tour groups and many families".


"The risk of continued and hidden transmission is high, and the situation is grim," Tian Wei of Beijing's Municipal Party Committee told a press briefing.


"The whole city of Beijing must act immediately."

China Covid death toll rises as Beijing warns of 'grim' situation

[harrybarracuda]

Super.

Interesting how the weekends have higher figures with "less testing and less reporting" and for the past 15 weeks Tuesdays have had the lowest reported cases ... "after a full reporting day".

You're quoting the figures released on Tuesday.... for Monday....

[harrybarracuda]

Post-Exposure Quarantine Reduced to Five Days

Yes, but more importantly the bars (well restaurants) can open til midnight.

I actually saw one last night whose "food" consists of a Grab Food logo....

I.e. if you're in there and you're hungry, you can order in.

[harrybarracuda]

Nope. Just quoting the reported figures.

Perhaps you didn't know they report the figures for the day before, first thing in the morning.

That wouldn't surprise me.

[Neverna]

You're quoting the figures released on Tuesday.... for Monday....

Well the figures and dates from the Thai press that I quoted are identical to those of the Thai Ministry of Public Health Department of Disease Control and the
World Health Organization, as well as coronatracker.com and worldometers.info, so they seem to be the official figures for those days in Thailand.

DDC COVID-19 Interactive Dashboard | 1-dash-tiles-w

Perhaps you didn't know they report the figures for the day before, first thing in the morning.

That wouldn't surprise me.

NBT publish their Covid figures in the late afternoon.

Don't be shy about posting the source of your figures. I am sure there is an explanation for the difference.

[harrybarracuda]

Don't be shy about posting the source of your figures. I am sure there is an explanation for the difference.

I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.

[Neverna]

I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.

It's not me who lacks understanding. It is you. What you just posted confirms what I posted.

Tuesday 19 April 2022: 16,891.

April 19th: 16,891
April 20th: 20,455
April 21st: 21,931

So you fucked up with your days/figures but are unable to bring yourself to admit it. No problem. It is to be expected from you.

[Neverna]

I would suggest the numbers on Tuesday after a full reporting day will still be around the 20,000 mark...

The trend on the chart suggests it will be under 15,000, but we'll have to wait until tomorrow.

Perhaps Tuesday will revolt and refuse to have the lowest figure of the week.

[harrybarracuda]

It's not me who lacks understanding. It is you. What you just posted confirms what I posted.

Well yes it is, no it isn't and no it doesn't, really, because unless you think people stop getting infected from the morning to midnight, you are too stupid to see what time the goverment posts the figures - for the preceding day.

[Neverna]

Well yes it is, no it isn't and no it doesn't, really, because unless you think people stop getting infected from the morning to midnight, you are too stupid to see what time the goverment posts the figures - for the preceding day.

I saw the time it was posted but it makes no difference to what I have posted as I have never argued about publishing times, nor have I argued that the day of a new case is included on the same day the figures are published, so that’s just a straw man that you have knocked down for yourself.

The fact remains that the reported figures I quoted are official government figures for the days I mentioned. And as I have posted, for the past 15 weeks, the lowest figure of the week has always appeared on a Tuesday. Can't wait until tomorrow!

Down to 14,994 new cases today. Your guess of "around the 20,000 mark" for tomorrow looks unlikely now.

[harrybarracuda]

The trend on the chart suggests it will be under 15,000, but we'll have to wait until tomorrow.

Perhaps Tuesday will revolt and refuse to have the lowest figure of the week.

As happy as I would be to see tomorrow's number under 15k, anything under 20k is a right result.

[harrybarracuda]

The fact remains that the reported figures I quoted are official government figures for the days I mentioned.

And as I've shown you, they are the figures PUBLISHED ON the days you mentioned. For the day before.

Down to 14,994 new cases today. Your guess of "around the 20,000 mark" for tomorrow looks unlikely now.

Down to 15K new cases YESTERDAY - a Sunday when many reporting outlets are closed.

So you think Tuesday's figure (i.e. Mondays count) will be less than 15K.

I think it will be at the high end of 15-20K, and hopefully not higher.

Pretty simple equation really.

* I should add I would be positively joyous if it drops below 15K as it means there's a high likelihood the next CCSA meeting will be to consider dropping incoming travel restrictions completely, at the very least.

[Neverna]

And as I've shown you, they are the figures PUBLISHED ON the days you mentioned. For the day before.

Nobody has argued otherwise.

Down to 15K new cases YESTERDAY - a Sunday when many reporting outlets are closed.

Today's official figures for Thailand.

So you think Tuesday's figure (i.e. Mondays count) will be less than 15K.

You want me to guess like you? Just wait until tomorrow, then we'll know for sure what the official figures for tomorrow are.

I think it will be at the high end of 15-20K, and hopefully not higher.

We'll find out tomorrow, but your guess is noted.

Pretty simple equation really.

What's the equation you use?

* I should add I would be positively joyous if it drops below 15K as it means there's a high likelihood the next CCSA meeting will be to consider dropping incoming travel restrictions completely, at the very least.

The fewer cases the better. Absolutely.

[harrybarracuda]

Today's official figures for Thailand.

They actually even tell you it's yesterday's.

There were 124 Covid-19 fatalities and 14,994 confirmed new cases on Sunday, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) announced on Monday.

[harrybarracuda]

Well that's fucking brilliant. So what's point in ThailandPass at all? Unless they're counting the ATKs.

[harrybarracuda]

Great minds...

The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) said the Thailand Pass scheme should be scrapped from June 1 to gain an additional 2 million tourists from tour groups and help the country to achieve 10 million tourist arrivals this year.
Vichit Prakobgosol, TCT vice-president, said the Thailand Pass still obstructs tour operators from bringing inbound tour groups due to the high level of paperwork which agencies have to submit individually, even though other restrictions are set to be lifted starting May 1.
If the Thailand Pass system is revoked by June, the country will definitely gain 10 million arrivals this year.
The number of tourists might even reach 12 million under the best-case scenario in which the Chinese market would be able to resume outbound trips by the end of the year.
TCT wants Thailand Pass scrapped

[Neverna]

Well that's fucking brilliant.

Indeed. 13,816 is a positive sign, although we can expect it to rise again for the next 2 or 3 days if it continues to follow the bouncy space-hopper model. The chart suggests around 16,000 for tomorrow, then 18,000 and maybe 19,000 after that before falling away again. Unless, of course, the falling trend reverses and we see a rising trend again. Fingers crossed.

[cyrille]

Great minds...

You and the TCT?

[harrybarracuda]

You and the TCT?

You think they're wrong sybille?