The COVID-2019 Thread

[HermantheGerman]

Russia's Coronavirus Cases Surge Past 220K in Latest One-Day Record Spike

Russia confirmed 11,656 new coronavirus infections Monday, bringing the country’s official number of cases to 221,344 and marking a new one-day record increase.


Russia now has the world's second-fastest rate of new infections behind the United States. It is the third most-affected country in terms of infections.


Ninety-four people died over the past 24 hours, bringing the total toll to 2,009.

MORE Russia's Coronavirus Cases Surge Past 220K in Latest One-Day Record Spike - The Moscow Times

As I said in another thread: "Putin is going in the history books". Good thing is they don't need our help. They are all dying of pneumonia and not covid-19. Sorry comrade Putin, we don't have a vaccine for that.

Kaliningrad- Covidgrad- Königsberg

[Troy]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...hould-be-asked

Some interesting questions raised but the problem is more interpretation of the results than the modelling itself.

They question Dr Ferguson's history of predicting much higher numbers than actually occurred in previous outbreaks. However, for Covid-19 the prediction was that suppression could restrict the death toll to around 20,000. This number has been exceeded by 50% and likely to rise further even with the current measures in place. I do think the no response numbers were exaggerated though and the Oxford model predicted a much less deadly scenario.

The mathematical model was developed around 2006 but I don't think that is the issue. There are in fact two different types of model being used by ICL and both are documented. The later model is the one of most interest and requires to be constantly updated with the latest information and rerun to give an indication of what is likely in the next two weeks. There isn't enough information to allow a prediction beyond that sort of time frame.

The UK government used the models from ICL and Oxford, and possibly others, to base their decisions. The ICL model has "no control", "mitigation", and "suppression" scenarios and the assumptions are tuned to the latest information. The assumptions and tuning will always be best guess though.

When modelling such a situation the error will always be on the safe side. Better to have suppression and fewer deaths.

The idea that the code is undocumented and of poor quality (The DT report in previous post) is a little harsh. This is university code not production code and the limited comments within the code (and lack of headers) is more likely to be because it is carried out within the version control system.

[Klondyke]

Russia's Coronavirus Cases Surge Past 220K in Latest One-Day Record Spike

Now we believe them? Just few days ago nobody here has believed them...
(we believe only the figures we have faked by ourselves....)

[Troy]

^Now we believe them? Before it was made clear here, we cannot believe them...

People questioned them rather than simply believing what they were told. It is the modern way...

[HuangLao]

People questioned them rather than simply believing what they were told. It is the modern way...

More of a traditional manner, less "modern".

Invented boogiemen have been the justification for ages.

DNA written.

[Troy]

More of a traditional manner, less "modern".

Tell that to those lying on the Somme and Passchendaele...

[NamPikToot]

Just seen the UK Govt has published it roadmap document

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_W EB__1_.pdf

[Warwick]

The UK government used the models from ICL and Oxford, and possibly others, to base their decisions.

In my opinion the UK governments response was forced on them by a media desirous both of pandering to public fears and keen to use the opportunity to denigrate the Boris administration; Brexit by proxy.

[NamPikToot]

Russia is doing a great job.

Russia


Coronavirus Cases:

221,344

Deaths:

2,009

Recovered:

39,801

[HermantheGerman]

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that from Tuesday the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work.
He said the country's "non-working period" imposed to curb the virus had lasted six weeks.
The easing of restrictions will affect all sectors of the economy, Mr Putin said, but some regions may keep tighter controls if necessary.
Russia now has the third-highest number of confirmed infections worldwide.

[Dragonfly]

There seems to be only one idiot here
......Both withdrew in 2018, after Raoult proved a despotic tyrant who allowed sexual harassment, discrimination and bullying to happen in his institute (read more here). There is also a history of data manipulation, for which Raoult himself was made responsible in 2006. Bik found even more irregularities in his papers, which makes sense: a bullying and totalitarian research environment with a personality cult, where compliance and fear rule, can only produce unreliable or falsified research. .....

Chloroquine witchdoctor Didier Raoult: barking mad and dangerous – For Better Science

Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19 – For Better Science

https://www.hebdo-ardeche.fr/photos/maxi/9993.jpg

well he gets results, so I would rather believe him than some random idiots on TD

[panama hat]

There seems to be only one idiot here

......Both withdrew in 2018, after Raoult proved a despotic tyrant who allowed sexual harassment, discrimination and bullying to happen in his institute (read more here). There is also a history of data manipulation, for which Raoult himself was made responsible in 2006. Bik found even more irregularities in his papers, which makes sense: a bullying and totalitarian research environment with a personality cult, where compliance and fear rule, can only produce unreliable or falsified research. .....

Well there's a Belgian and the crazy doctor, looks a lot like Trump's ex-doctor

[Switch]

well he gets results, so I would rather believe him than some random idiots on TD

The man is clearly a sociopath. The NK leader also gets results, so in your loopy world, he is equally believable?

The mad French scientist believes his own hype, and shares the same mental and physical deformities as you. Caused by delusion, and patting himself on the back.

[misskit]

Twitter to label ‘misleading’ virus content – Raw Story

New York City virus deaths may be thousands more than official toll: study – Raw Story

[jabir]

Regarding compo Boris demanded $351bn compensation from China and I read somewhere they asked if he prefers cash or credit.

[Latindancer]

Biological Weapons the Focus of China’s Military Research in the Last 20 Years

Biological Weapons the Focus of China's Military Research in the Last 20 Years | JAPAN Forward

[Norton]

Apologies if already posted somewhere.

[katie23]

^thanks for that, Norton. It was interesting to see a "dead" Pattaya. A pity that Dilly doesn't live there anymore. He could've provided a "boots on the ground" view for us. But, I'm still hoping that Headworx, Loytoy or SA will step up and give us a vlog!

This was recommended after that Pattaya vid - a look into Khao San Road. I feel a bit butt-hurt, since I own a pair of elephant pants, which he calls idiot pants!

[cyrille]

A pity that Dilly doesn't live there anymore. He could've provided a "boots on the ground" view for us

Well, a "pool table cover sized knickers on the towel rail" view, anyway.

[David48atTD]

U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on May 7, 2020.

Doug Bills | The New York Times | Getty Image

Coronavirus infection rates are spiking to new highs in several metropolitan areas and smaller communities across the country, according to undisclosed data the White House’s pandemic task force is using to track rates of infection, which was obtained by NBC News.


The data contained in a May 7 coronavirus task force report are at odds with President Donald Trump’s Monday declaration that “all throughout the country, the numbers are coming down rapidly.”


The top 10 areas saw surges of 72.4 percent or greater over a seven-day period compared to the prior week, according to a set of tables produced for the task force by its Data and Analytics unit.
They include Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and — atop the list with a 650 percent increase — Central City, Kentucky.

Unreleased White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in heartland communities

[Seekingasylum]

The crass foolishness of local government here in Chonburi responsible for the quarantine regime during a period when there have been no COVID attributed fatalities or new infection recorded in the past two weeks is really beyond stupidity.

Despite millions going about their daily work/commuting schedules in Bangkok and the surrounding hinterland, travelling together in close, almost intimate, proximity on buses, skytrains and subways, we in Naklua, Pattaya and all the way down to Sattahip are barred from stepping onto the beaches or swimming in the sea.

But this is May 12th. In ordinary times these places would be pretty sparsely populated anyway during a weekday with the transition to low season, but now they would be deserted as indeed they were before this stupid beach lockdown was introduced in the beginning of April. There are no Chinese to speak of, not since mid February. The Russians have gone save for a few who are stranded. There have been no farang visitors, obviously, and the only significant foreign population are resident retirees, The Thai as we know do not go to the beach during the day, especially during the week. Indeed, I have a photograph of Wongamat Beach taken on May 27th a few years ago at midday which shows the entire strand to be deserted. So, enhancing social distancing is not an issue, well not to anyone with a fucking brain.

The only reason why this prohibition is in place is because the ordinary Thai working Joe, the poor and those on modest incomes continued to take relief from the heat and spend early evenings on the beaches of Bang Saen, Bang Saray etc in their family groups in defiance of the authorities. Rather than trying to police these gatherings which in practice were quite innocuous and, given they were alfresco, posed little risk of increasing transmission, they simply imposed this 24 hour blanket ban. Now if Thailand had been afflicted grievously by the virus as in Europe tc with deaths of 26,000 then one might argue reasonably the quarantine measure was necessary as an adjunct to public health policy but given we have had around a mere 82 deaths nationally none of which were attributed to catching the virus on a fucking beach,the case for maintaining it enters the realm of the absurd. That we are still not permitted to take a dip in our condo pools, a stupid imposition also shared in Bangkok, just adds to the madness. The other day the temperature was 33c with 70% humidity resulting in a 'feel' temperature of 110f. The sheer lunacy of this place gets worse by the year.

Still, there we have it.

[harrybarracuda]

A new study -- the largest of its kind -- shows that hydroxychloroquine, the drug touted by President Trump, does not work against Covid-19 and could cause heart problems.

The study was published Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. It follows a study published Thursday in the New England Journal of Medicine that also showed the drug doesn't fight the virus.

Even before these reports were published, the US Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health issued warnings about using the drugs for coronavirus patients.

"The nail has virtually been put in the coffin of hydroxychloroquine," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert and longtime adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Yet another study shows hydroxychloroquine doesn't work against Covid-19 - CNN

[Seekingasylum]

A new study -- the largest of its kind -- shows that hydroxychloroquine, the drug touted by President Trump, does not work against Covid-19 and could cause heart problems.

The study was published Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. It follows a study published Thursday in the New England Journal of Medicine that also showed the drug doesn't fight the virus.

Even before these reports were published, the US Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health issued warnings about using the drugs for coronavirus patients.

"The nail has virtually been put in the coffin of hydroxychloroquine," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert and longtime adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There is a flaw in this study's findings in that they failed to understand that the efficacy of the drug is only assured if the hydroxychloroquine is administered in the French way i.e. inserting it up one's arse.

[harrybarracuda]

Fucking chinky twats are trying to block Taiwan from a WHO meeting, when they are miles ahead of everybody else in containment.

KEY POINTS

• Taiwan is campaigning furiously to attend the next World Health Assembly (WHA) meeting to be held from May 18.

• China — which claims Taiwan as its province with no right to its own diplomatic representation on the global stage and in international organizations such as the World Health Organization — objects to this.

• Admitting Taiwan to the WHA meeting “will be an occasion where Taiwan can share our experience in areas such as testing, diagnosis, border control, and community outbreak prevention,” said Chen Shih-chung, Taiwan’s Minister of Health and Welfare.

• To date, Taiwan – which has not implemented any strict lockdowns or school closures – has reported just 440 cases and seven deaths in its population of 24 million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/china-objects-to-taiwan-joining-who-meeting-on-coronavirus.html

[bowie]

redacted for sizing

COVID-19 expert: Coronavirus will rage 'until it infects everybody it possibly can'

Ken Alltucker, USA TODAY 1 hr ago

A high-profile infectious disease researcher warns COVID-19 is in the early stages of attacking the world, which makes it difficult to relax stay-at-home orders without putting most Americans at risk.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the initial wave of outbreaks in cities such as New York City, where one in five people have been infected, represent a fraction of the illness and death yet to come.

"This damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can," Osterholm said Monday during a meeting with the USA TODAY Editorial Board. "It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70%" of the population, the number that would create herd immunity and halt the spread of the virus.

Even if new cases begin to fade this summer, it might be an indicator that the new coronavirus is following a seasonal pattern similar to the flu.

During the 1918 flu pandemic that sickened one-third of the world's population, New York City and Chicago were hit hard in the first wave of illness that largely bypassed other cities such as Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis and Philadelphia. The second wave of illness was much more severe nationwide.