The COVID-2019 Thread

[jabir]

WTF!

Report: CDC Shocks Everyone With Newly Adjusted COVID-19 U.S. Death Rate – From 60,000 to 37,000

The CDC just readjusted the COVID-19 death numbers. They’ve dropped significantly, causing many people to wonder what the heck is going on.

The number of Coronavirus dead went from 60,000 U.S. deaths to 37,000.

The more inflated number is being called a “gaffe” apparently, although there’s still some confusion as to what exactly this adjustment means.

Report: CDC Shocks Everyone With Newly Adjusted COVID-19 U.S. Death Rate - From 60,000 to 37,000

Easy explanation, 23,000 people entered the Easter spirit and came back to life.

[Troy]

^ The adjustment removes probable deaths due to covid-19, which are still being shown on worldometers.info site.

[Cujo]

Probably decided to discount deaths from things like Kidney failure, even though it was caused by the coronavirus. Trump will be trying every trick in the book to get the numbers down.
This is really going to set off the tin foil hatters. (If it's true)

[Dragonfly]

we will have to wait another 18 months to get the real numbers, maybe less, maybe more

[Dragonfly]

Probably decided to discount deaths from things like Kidney failure, even though it was caused by the coronavirus. Trump will be trying every trick in the book to get the numbers down.
This is really going to set off the tin foil hatters. (If it's true)

might not be different from Europe actually, old people were going to die in the coming months, as part of the normal annual statistics, should they be included for dying sooner?

for France, they did some calculation comparison from last year, using the first 3-4 months, and the number of deaths was double than normal

that also mean the statistics at the end of the year for old people will be lower than normal, so we might see a 30% drop for the death of old people on season comparable

[Cujo]

WTF!

Report: CDC Shocks Everyone With Newly Adjusted COVID-19 U.S. Death Rate – From 60,000 to 37,000

The CDC just readjusted the COVID-19 death numbers. They’ve dropped significantly, causing many people to wonder what the heck is going on.

The number of Coronavirus dead went from 60,000 U.S. deaths to 37,000.

The more inflated number is being called a “gaffe” apparently, although there’s still some confusion as to what exactly this adjustment means.

Report: CDC Shocks Everyone With Newly Adjusted COVID-19 U.S. Death Rate - From 60,000 to 37,000

Easy explanation, 23,000 people entered the Easter spirit and came back to life.

And considering the source I checked it out.
This is what I see NOW on the CDC website.
Maybe Wayne Dupree knows something I don't.

[Cujo]

So bullshit then.

[Troy]

This is the screenshot I have just obtained from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm




with the following notes:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.


*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.


¹Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1


²Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).


³Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.


⁴Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.


⁵Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

Clear as mud...

[Cujo]

This is the screenshot I have just obtained from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm




with the following notes:



Clear as mud...

So why the discrepancy between that and mine above?
Some interesting figures as to reason of tdeath. That 37,308 figure isn't the final figure by any means. Look at the last column.

[Troy]

So why the discrepancy between that and mine above?

Dunno, maybe CDC stands for Confusing Data Centre or Complicate Data to Confuse....

[misskit]

Trump warns coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000Trump warns coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000



DHS report: China hid coronavirus' severity in order to hoard medical supplies

WASHINGTON — U.S. officials believe China covered up the extent of the coronavirus outbreak — and how contagious the disease is — to stock up on medical supplies needed to respond to it, intelligence documents show.

MORE DHS report: China hid coronavirus'&#39;' severity in order to hoard medical supplies



Five European countries have yet to reach COVID-19 peak, E.U. says


The head of the European Union agency for disease control said on Monday that five European countries have yet to reach the peak of their coronavirus outbreaks.


Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, told EU lawmakers that in Britain, Poland, Romania and Sweden the agency had seen "no substantial changes in the last 14 days," and Bulgaria was still recording an increase in cases. The statement contradicted the U.K. government's line, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying on Thursday that Britain was past the peak and "on the downward slope."


For all other European countries there was a drop in cases, she said. "As of Saturday, it appears that the initial wave of transmission (in Europe) has passed its peak," Ammon told lawmakers in a videoconference.

Five European countries have yet to reach COVID-19 peak, E.U. says

[Troy]

The figures suggest the UK has flattened the curve but still lots of cases per day. It's a week or two behind the rest of Europe so not particularly surprising.
The trigger for easing restrictions is ICU percentage capacity. I think the NHS is publishing those figures. May be worth a look and compare with ICL trigger.
I would expect restrictions to ease at the county level rather than country level.

I should also add the ICL model didn't think large crowds over short periods would be a problem. That is, lots waiting for planes or trains is okay but staying together for long period is a problem. It doesn't quite tie in with the German pass the salt infection scenario...

[HuangLao]

So bullshit then.

Imagine that...

[harrybarracuda]

Trump warns coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000Trump warns coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000

DHS report: China hid coronavirus' severity in order to hoard medical supplies

WASHINGTON — U.S. officials believe China covered up the extent of the coronavirus outbreak — and how contagious the disease is — to stock up on medical supplies needed to respond to it, intelligence documents show.

MORE DHS report: China hid coronavirus'&#39;' severity in order to hoard medical supplies

We knew that already. The Australians found out about it weeks ago.

[misskit]

More suicidal physicians.

Third Russian doctor plunges from hospital window amid coronavirus outbreak

A third Russian doctor has taken a plunge from a hospital window amid complaints about mounting pressures involved in treating coronavirus patients, according to a report.


Dr. Alexander Shulepov, 37, suffered critical head injuries after appearing in a video in which he claimed he was ordered to work despite testing positive for the deadly disease, East2West reported.


Shulepov and his colleagues also warned about the shortages of personal protective equipment in the southwestern city of Voronezh, according to the news outlet.


Lying in a hospital bed, Shulepov later appeared in another video in which he retracted his allegations – though there were suspicions that he was forced to make his statement.

MORE Third Russian doctor plunges from window amid coronavirus outbreak

[sabang]

Meanwhile, in lalaland-





‘Blowhard’ Trump now a laughingstock in China for ongoing coronavirus bumbling: report – Raw Story



Bombshell CNN report reveals Trump’s careless belief early on that COVID-19 was ‘deep state conspiracy’ – Raw Story





“That’s why the polls that are coming out are all bad news for him,” Scarborough added. “I know that drives him crazy, makes him do even crazier things. It makes him talk about disinfectants being injected, makes him talk about lights being disinfected, makes him say stupid things about Abraham Lincoln and insult George W. Bush, when the president is trying to bring us together. Donald Trump is down 43 percent to 49 percent to Joe Biden. you look at a Dallas Morning News poll, unbelievable, in Texas, the Dallas Morning News has Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied.”
MSNBC’s Morning Joe destroys Trump for ‘lying’ about COVID-19 death toll – Raw Story



Trump's comedic masterclass may be the only amusing thing to come out of this pandemic.

[misskit]

^ I love Raw Story. And Joe Scarborough, too. Both just brutally go after the Cheeto Loco.

[Warwick]

that also mean the statistics at the end of the year for old people will be lower than normal, so we might see a 30% drop for the death of old people on season comparable

More deaths because of suicide, starvation, life shortening depression, not getting prompt hospital treatment for other ailments; less deaths due to lower pollution, a drop in road deaths and improved hygiene slowing the spread of other ills.

The 'experts' will be able to prove whatever they like.

[misskit]

Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June

Projections from an internal report show that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month.

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.


As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.


The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.


The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

MORE Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June - The New York Times

[Dragonfly]

the US is lucky if they can double the daily cases, it would mean more people getting exposed, and possibly a second wave not as deadly as it would be in Europe

[Switch]

the US is lucky if they can double the daily cases, it would mean more people getting exposed, and possibly a second wave not as deadly as it would be in Europe

You are a biff.

[panama hat]

the US is lucky if they can double the daily cases, it would mean more people getting exposed, and possibly a second wave not as deadly as it would be in Europe

That's a ridiculous analogy as a 'first wave' hasn't ended yet, let alone a second wave to be calculated. The assumption that you and others have, who believe in this, is that the majority of the population have been exposed to the virus in a 'first wave' - which is not the case.

[tomcat]

[panama hat]

^ Very good.

If the virus isn't given the opportunity to spread and its 'lifespan' is fourteen/twenty-one days, it will die out - logic 101.
(This presupposes the scientists are correct in c-19's 'lifespan')

[jabir]

More deaths because of suicide, starvation, life shortening depression, not getting prompt hospital treatment for other ailments; less deaths due to lower pollution, a drop in road deaths and improved hygiene slowing the spread of other ills.

The 'experts' will be able to prove whatever they like.

Talk of road deaths, could've been a coincidence but just before CV came Buffett bought a large stake in some auto insurance firm, now everyone's paid up but nobody's driving...smart or what?