The COVID-2019 Thread

[Bettyboo]

It's a global pandemic which has several weeks incubation period, so the blow-up populations outside of mainline China are not yet visible.

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Situation Summary | CDC

[Seekingasylum]

You babbling, incoherent neurotic, it is an epidemic, not a pandemic, and the incubation period is between 2 -14 days with the average period currently coming in at 5.6 days.

Your hysterics suggest a rather more pressing problem than contracting a coronaviral infection.

[Bettyboo]

You babbling, incoherent neurotic, it is an epidemic, not a pandemic, and the incubation period is between 2 -14 days with the average period currently coming in at 5.6 days.

Your hysterics suggest a rather more pressing problem than contracting a coronaviral infection.

...and spreading.

[Seekingasylum]

You idiot, the pandemic is only declared if the worldwide spread is in epidemic proportions.

I rather doubt the 6 or so in Germany, a few in France, a couple in Canada, and perhaps a smattering in the US constitutes a fucking epidemic in any of thos 'worldwide' locations.

And you are a teacher???

The WHO will declare a pandemic when the world shares epidemic infection rates.

Grief, what a muppet.

[Bettyboo]

You idiot, the pandemic is only declared if the worldwide spread is in epidemic proportions.

I rather doubt the 6 or so in Germany, a few in France, a couple in Canada, and perhaps a smattering in the US constitutes a fucking epidemic in any of thos 'worldwide' locations.

And you are a teacher???

The WHO will declare a pandemic when the world shares epidemic infection rates.

Grief, what a muppet.

Luckily, I was with some nurses and their instructors today, so we discussed this issue; you know, with medical professionals rather than you, an internet moron/troll. &, to nobody's surprise, you are wrong (again...).

This has: 1) spread throughout an entire 'community', in this case Wuhan (although the term 'community' can be very small when used in this case, as small as say an entire housing estate or an entire school). &, well beyond (in this case China) - which, by medical terminology, makes it a pandemic. &, it is international (although a pandemic does NOT need to be international). &, as it's new, it is moving (all the time...) beyond it's 'usual' locality.

Here's something more to help you:



"All" and "People" refer to within a "community", not the world.

While some may well agree with your last sentence..., you're second from last sentence, penultimate, added for Terrance, is utter fabrication, as is your common trait.

Edit to add: upon further checking... This virus has already infected more people, killed more people and spread to more countries than the SARS pandemic did in it's entirety - about 9 months

[PlanK]

[Bogon]

Just to clear this epidemic/pandemic verbal fistycuffs Betty and Seekingsausage ae having.

I also feel that there is not a clearcut line where an epidemic turns into a pandemic.

Here is what was reported by the BBC today.


Sylvie Briand, head of WHO's Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, said the outbreak "currently" was not a pandemic. While more than two dozen nations have reported cases there have been no confirmations across Africa or Latin America.

Source - Coronavirus: Window of opportunity to act, World Health Organization says - BBC News

[OhOh]

I was with some nurses and their instructors today

Sylvie Briand, head of WHO's Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, said the outbreak "currently" was not a pandemic.

One suspects "some nurses" have a narrower perspective than the Head of the WHO's "Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness Division".

"the ability to consider things in relation to one another accurately and fairly"

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/...sh/perspective

They are the world authority on such things. Your "nurses" may not have been at the "Pandemic" lecture.

[Bettyboo]

^

Rather, I suspect "some nurses" are less politically motivated.

Evidence: SARS was a pandemic, stated by WHO, everyone. Coronavirus has infected more people in more countries and killed more people too in a dramatically shorter time frame. The WHO are playing politics.


^^ Yes, the words are ambiguous to a great extent, and many different places define them differently (and the two terms mean different things, one is not a less serious form of the other, and one does not need to turn into the other at a given stage or at all); they are certainly fluid terms. But, I repeat, why would SARS be a Pandemic and not Coronavirus? Coronavirus has spread further and infected more people in a shorter space of time, and it is also spreads far more easily from person to person - it is very much more a Pandemic, by definition, than SARS.

Think about it for one second.

To add: the two main elements that contribute to the term pandemic are: 1) affects a wide geographical area; 2) affecting an exceptionally high % of people (due to easy transmission). In both these elements, Coronavirus has a higher rate within a month than SARS had in its entire 9 months.

There is no doubt that Coronavirus will be named as a pandemic by the WHO and everyone, but the delay in doing so is politically based rather than healthcare based. The problem with this is that more restrictions and more healthcare expertise can be applied once a pandemic is announced by the WHO, so that the spread of the virus can be better managed/stopped.

In the most extreme case, which the WHO are taking, you need to see person to person transfer where neither have been at the original breakout sight - Wuhan. That has already happened in China. We have the Korean who picked it up in Thailand somehow, not sure exactly how, if that Korean passes the disease to another Korean who hasn't visited China then they'll state a pandemic. It seems pretty clear we're beyond that point already though...

[OhOh]

"some nurses" are less politically motivated.

The WHO are playing politics.

If you say so. I have no idea who your "nurses" are, where they work or in what positions, you may care to enlighten us, or not.

I disagree, because the facts, do not, support your allegations.

it is very much more a Pandemic, by definition, than SARS.

This is the definition issued by the WTO, it may well be different from another time. If you have a previous version, please post it along with it's source. That way we can all sing from the same song sheet:

What is a pandemic?

"24 February 2010

A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and spreads around the world, and most people do not have immunity. Viruses that have caused past pandemics typically originated from animal influenza viruses.

Some aspects of influenza pandemics can appear similar to seasonal influenza while other characteristics may be quite different. For example, both seasonal and pandemic influenza can cause infections in all age groups, and most cases will result in self-limited illness in which the person recovers fully without treatment. However, typical seasonal influenza causes most of its deaths among the elderly while other severe cases occur most commonly in people with a variety of medical conditions.

By contrast, this H1N1 pandemic caused most of its severe or fatal disease in younger people, both those with chronic conditions as well as healthy persons, and caused many more cases of viral pneumonia than is normally seen with seasonal influenza."

For both seasonal and pandemic influenza, the total number of people who get severely ill can vary. However, the impact or severity tends to be higher in pandemics in part because of the much larger number of people in the population who lack pre-existing immunity to the new virus. When a large portion of the population is infected, even if the proportion of those infected that go on to develop severe disease is small, the total number of severe cases can be quite large.

For both seasonal and pandemic influenza, the highest levels of activity would be expected to occur in the usual influenza season period for an area. (In the temperate climate zones, this is usually the winter months, for example). But as was seen with the current H1N1 pandemic, pandemics can have unusual epidemiological patterns and large outbreaks can occur in the summer months"

WHO | What is a pandemic?

The first line says " the worldwide spread of a new disease". That has not happened, yet.

There are 195 sovereign countries, according to the UN.

According to:

2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak by country and territory

2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak by country and territory - Wikipedia

This is the list as of 5th February 2020.

Country or region	Confirmed	Deaths	Recoveries	Reference
Mainland China	24,348	491	892	[1]
Japan	33			[1]
Singapore	28		1	[1]
Thailand	25		8	[1]
Hong Kong	21	1		[2]
South Korea	18			[1]
Australia	14		2	[1]
Germany	12			[1]
Malaysia	12			[1]
Taiwan	11			[1]
United States	11			[1]
Macau	10			[1]
Vietnam	10		3	[1]
France	6			[1]
Canada	5			[1]
United Arab Emirates	5			[1]
India	3			[1]
Philippines	3	1		[1]
Italy	2			[1]
Russia	2			[1]
United Kingdom	2			[1]
Belgium	1			[1]
Cambodia	1			[1]
Finland	1			[1]
Nepal	1			[1]
Spain	1			[1]
Sri Lanka	1		1	[1]
Sweden	1			[1]
28 territories	24,588	493	907
As of 5 February 2020. History: China; Others

28 Countries have at least one "Confirmed Case". 3 countries have "Confirmed Deaths".

Out of 195 countries only 3 have a confirmed death. No breakdown is given as to where they were infected.

I would suggest under 5 indicates they were infected during a visit to China. That eliminates 12 countries, leaving 16 with potential, in country, "Person to Person", virus transmission.

Not as you alleged the 195 countries worldwide.

In addition 2 deaths are reported outside of mainland China, they are Hong Kong and Philippine.

You may not agree with my breakdown.

As the first line states a pandemic decision requires that there is occurring, today, "the worldwide spread of a new disease".

I state that the WHO is following it's position.

I call your accusation by you and others here on TD, as totally misconceived or actual racist bullshit.

What label do you wish to be known by?

Or shall we continue debating further the WHO Pandemic statement?

[Luigi]

The first line says " the worldwide spread of a new disease". That has not happened, yet.

There are 195 sovereign countries, according to the UN.

Worldwide doesn't mean every country.

[OhOh]

Worldwide doesn't mean every country.

You are correct there is no WHO definition of the term "Worldwide"

It suggest a more massive infected world population %, than what is currently being reported. The current death rate is around 2% of the infected in China, not 2% of Chinese citizens. The other countries have too few infected to calculate a useful %.

I would suggest those who are infected in other countries had either visited China and became infected prior to travelling back to their countries, or have had contact with someone who did, as I stated. That analysis has yet to be published, officially, but as the numbers relative to the country's population is miniscule .....

I would also suggest 14% of the worlds countries being infected, were not enough to constitute a quorum, and hence the WHO stating the world is now suffering a pandemic. If using a total world population figure, even less.

But who knows what tomorrow may bring to us inhabitants of the world.

[harrybarracuda]

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.
On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

[HermantheGerman]

One suspects "some nurses" have a narrower perspective than the Head of the WHO's "Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness Division".

The nurses are making a judgement by their experience. WHO clearly a political.
It's written all over the news (even communist BS papers) that the Coronavirus is going to become a pandemic or already is.

You really don't have to be a genius to figure that one out.

[HermantheGerman]

Good news surfacing, excellent. Are their adequate supplies of his chosen drugs available worldwide?

Just have to use some common sense and don't rust the wrong people. Right OhOh ?


The World Health Organization (WHO) has dismissed optimistic reports of a breakthrough in creating a vaccine and drugs that are effective against the Wuhan coronavirus which has gripped China and spread to 25 other nations.
5 Feb, 2020 15:18

[helge]

It's written all over the news (even communist BS papers) that the Coronavirus is going to become a pandemic or already is.

Just a handfull of links would be nice then

[NamPikToot]

Sausages is on a crusade, one of many.

The Pandemic categorisation was started in 1999 and is defined by stages 5-6 on their little chart

4.1. Definition of the phases


In nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.


In Phase 2, an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.


In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.


Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks”. The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk of a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.


Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region (Figure 4)23. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.


Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

[HermantheGerman]

Just a handfull of links would be nice then

-According to the World Health Organization's (WHO) description of pandemic phases, coronavirus is only a step away from being a pandemic.


-There are three likely scenarios for what will happen next – and the bad news is that a pandemic looks difficult to avoid


-Depending on whom you ask, we’re either already in a pandemic, meaning there are ongoing epidemics of the virus on two or more continents; we’re hurtling toward one; or we’re on the path to averting a spiraling crisis.


-It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Anthony Fauci, Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an interview with the New York Times.


-The coronavirus will likely grow into a pandemic, but it’s not too late to prevent the disease from becoming an epidemic in America, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned.


-And on Monday, Gregory Poland, the director of the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group, used an even stronger term to describe it.“We’re basically at a pandemic now,” he told CNBC.

[HermantheGerman]

Chinese companies are currently investing a lot in Africa.
How many Chinese are working there ?

Sino-African ties are extensive, including trade, investment and finance, tourism, education, and security cooperation. There are more than 60,000 Africans studying in China. Thousands of African students studying in Wuhan have found themselves caught in the quarantine but cut off from consular services. Travel between China and Africa has also been drastically reduced, and many African airlines have canceled flights. Despite WHO requests to keep flights and borders open, many African countries have joined others around the world in restricting travel from China.

[helge]

^ yesterday

Today:



Total confirmed = 20% increase.

Total deaths = 15% increase.

Total recovered = 15% increase.


Project that forward 10 days at the same rate would be:

Total Confirmed = 152,000

Total Deaths = 2,300

Total Recovered = 3,670

Thus, you'd want the rate to slow soon and dramatically because if anything like this growth rate continues then you can do the maths: 30 days, 60 days, 90 days...

The Lancet has done some numbers and they mean that the number of infected persons on Jan 25 was 75.815.

So instead of 2 % dead you have 0,2%

Last pandemic was H1N1 with 285000 dead and a 0,02% dead/infected

Sars was at 10%

Calm down, Betty

[panama hat]

The Lancet has done some numbers and they mean that the number of infected persons on Jan 25 was 75.815.

So instead of 2 % dead you have 0,2%

But if the numbers for infected people were under-reported would it lend itself to the deaths being under-reported as well?

This reminds me of being in a large American supermarket's cereal aisle . . . too much information

[panama hat]

Back on the 21st of January already:


BEIJING (BLOOMBERG) - Chinese researchers have applied for a local patent on an experimental Gilead Sciences drug that they believe might fight the novel coronavirus.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology - based in the central Chinese city at the epicentre of the epidemic - has applied for a patent in China for the use of the antiviral drug, known as remdesivir, in treating the ailment. The application was made on Jan 21 along with a military academy, according to a Feb 4 statement on the institute's website.
The move is a sign that China wants more say over a drug it deems as one of the most promising candidates against the infection that has killed almost 500 people. The decision to seek a patent, instead of invoking the heavy-handed "compulsory licence" option that lets nations override drug patents in national emergencies, underscores the delicate balancing act before China as it signals commitment towards intellectual property
rights alongside curbing the virus outbreak.
"The fact that they have applied for a patent means there's growing awareness about this in the country," said Mr Wang Yanyu, a senior partner at AllBright Law Offices in Beijing. "The government is compelled to avoid using the compulsory licence because it has been making efforts to show China respects intellectual property rights and the abuse of compulsory licensing will draw international criticism."It is not clear if or when China's intellectual property authorities will approve the institute's application. The patent filing will need to prove that the drug works on this coronavirus strain, 2019-nCoV, in a way that is different from how it works on other viruses in the same category.
Filing of the patent application by a stakeholder in China, however, makes sense, according to Mr Wang. "Most of the patients are here, rather than in the US, which makes it unlikely that Gilead will do all these tests," he said.



While Gilead's experimental drug is not licensed or approved anywhere in the world, it is being rushed into human trials in China on coronavirus patients after showing early signs of being highly effective. It may go into clinical trials in China as early as next week in patients with moderate and severe symptoms of the novel pathogen, said Dr Merdad Parsey, Gilead's chief medical officer.




China wants to patent Gilead's experimental coronavirus drug, East Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times


There's more to the article

[OhOh]

7:34 am Feb 6

3,694 new confirmed cases were reported on Feb 5 in the Chinese mainland, said China's National Health Commission.

The total infection number soared to 28,018,

with 563 deaths as of Feb 5.

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak - Global Times

[Luigi]

The young lads stuck in their houses all day must be racking up SomtamSlap-esque wanking numbers at this stage.


Toilet paper, tissues and sock shortages could become a real issue.

[OhOh]

The nurses.

Have yet to be debated. Their positions, experience and knowledge source are as of today unknown due to a posters silence.

WHO clearly a political.

See my previous post. Unless you have further information to enhance your allegation?

It's written all over the news.

It may well be, the question is, are their statements on the current situation or some projection based on their goal seeking?

the Coronavirus is going to become a pandemic or already is.

You may be correct, unfortunately with the official facts published your statement requires a working crystal ball. Pray tell what are the Thai lottery numbers should I purchase?