1. #5451
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    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    It's obvious that we could use another good dose/wave of this shit.

    The first culling wasn't enough.
    Given the Darwinian concepts displayed in this thread I'd say there's no need to worry. Just sit back and let the natural selection do it's thing.

    Note to candidates:
    There is a rumour that Swede's are licking shopping trolley handles. And by doing so, they reduce the number of COVID-19 infected people. It's true.

    All the best
    Charles Darwin

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dillinger View Post
    Sweden is 85% as you will already know but feel the need for some reason to over-exaggerate that.
    Tsk tsk, rounded

    The COVID-2019 Thread-screen-shot-2020-05-03-22-a


    • Sweden - urbanization 2008-2018 | Statista

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    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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  4. #5454
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    so again our office boy troll doesn't understand the randomness of daily changes versus the more consistent CDF measures

    the number of overall infection keeps rising, that's for sure, the daily rates is irrelevant because of seasonality and delay in collecting data, so it's random and you can't make any real decisions or conclusions based on daily data

    a slow down in daily cases doesn't mean the infection is not happening or lockdown is working when the number of cases keep rising. We hit a plateau once the daily rates is 0 for several days. This plateau can't be reached in the long run because the population is still exposed to the virus sans immediate medical remedies. Nature don't care about lockdowns or what politicians ask of their population. It will keep spreading.

    The only way to approach this is the Swedish model, that is let the virus circulate freely and have as much as your population exposed to it. It's actually interesting that Sweden numbers are not higher (they might be, but we don't have that info for sure) since they are exposing a bigger size of their population compared to other European countries.

    anyway the point is Lockdowns don't work, it if did, the daily increase of infection would have hit 0 no latter than after the incubation period but it didn't. It's also possible that the incubation is much longer in asymptomatic patients.

  5. #5455
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    Can we move on now?

  6. #5456
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    So it looks like the reduction in death rates across the EU is encouraging a relaxation in quarantine measures, will be interesting to see how this plays out with the 2nd phase concerns.

    Spain records lowest daily death toll in over six weeks

    from the beeb
    Spain has recorded its lowest daily death toll linked to coronavirus since 18 March, new figures from the health ministry show.


    A total of 164 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours, the lowest number in over six weeks, while new cases of the virus rose to 217,466 from 216,582.


    Experts caution that numbers collated at the weekend are sometimes lower but have said that the figures are favourable.


    A total of 25,264 have died with coronavirus in Spain but the country has started to gradually ease restrictions. Adults were able to exercise outdoors on Saturday for the first time in seven weeks. From Monday, face masks will be compulsory on all public transport.

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    164 in 24 hours is still quite a lot considering how fast and wide the virus spreads.

    Taiwan is looking at daily rates around zero. Korea has seen daily rates of around 10 for a while now. Europe is not out of the woods by any stretch, but numbers are encouraging. Some countries in Europe are still on the up, such as Sweden...
    Cycling should be banned!!!

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    Betts, neither of those two countries were hit badly - for Spain <1k new cases and under 200 deaths will feel like a blessed relief and good news. I fear there will be another peak though looking at he pics with everyone bumping up against each other.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    164 in 24 hours is still quite a lot considering how fast and wide the virus spreads.

    Taiwan is looking at daily rates around zero. Korea has seen daily rates of around 10 for a while now. Europe is not out of the woods by any stretch, but numbers are encouraging. Some countries in Europe are still on the up, such as Sweden...
    that means they are reaching a plateau which is good, but how long did it take them? much longer than the official incubation period, that's for sure. Their cluster lockdown is an improvement over the total lockdown we are facing, but they will be better off following the Swedish model, if they don't mind having 300,000 deaths over 6 months

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Some countries in Europe are still on the up, such as Sweden...
    Yes Sweden has gone down a rather unique path, time will tell on that one.

    If I am not mistaken I think ”Forethat” briefly mentioned Sweden a page or so back

  11. #5461
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NamPikToot View Post
    So it looks like the reduction in death rates across the EU is encouraging a relaxation in quarantine measures, will be interesting to see how this plays out with the 2nd phase concerns.

    Spain records lowest daily death toll in over six weeks

    from the beeb
    Spain has recorded its lowest daily death toll linked to coronavirus since 18 March, new figures from the health ministry show.


    A total of 164 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours, the lowest number in over six weeks, while new cases of the virus rose to 217,466 from 216,582.


    Experts caution that numbers collated at the weekend are sometimes lower but have said that the figures are favourable.


    A total of 25,264 have died with coronavirus in Spain but the country has started to gradually ease restrictions. Adults were able to exercise outdoors on Saturday for the first time in seven weeks. From Monday, face masks will be compulsory on all public transport.
    Spain - seasonal flu of 2019: 600,000 - 700,00 reported cases from mild to severe. Approx 15,000 fatalities.
    Worldwide - seasonal flu of 2019: up to 3,500,000 reported cases. Some 650,000 deaths.

    Public and political panic? Discussion?
    No.

    See any comparative correlations or critiques?

    Similar numbers are common with associated and recent viral outbreaks - 2018, 2016, etc, etc....

  12. #5462
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forethat View Post
    That IS logarithmic data, you amateur. The trend is logarithmic as well. If you want a polynomial trend I can provide one, but I can tell you straight away that it would only make my case look even stronger.
    Here you go:

    Attachment 50162


    More questions?
    I seem to have lost a post, no matter, I'll elaborate on the last one.

    Logarithmic data? What ever do you mean? Are there 10**500 daily infections in Sweden?

    Clearly the y axis is not logarithmic, scale or data.

    Yes the infection rate does ramp up exponentially. However it has levelled off at around 600 infections a day. This number appears to be manageable in Sweden as the hospitals are not overloaded.

    The Imperial college report 9, dated 16 march and targeted at UK and USA clearly suggests either suppression or mitigation. Although the conclusion was suppression was best for the UK, it states mitigation as an alternative for countries who have the required hospital support and suppression is not possible for economic or other reasons.

    The report also clearly states that the suppression cannot last more than a certain period, less than the time for a vaccine and restrictions need to be relaxed and reapplied according to triggers.

    The link to the reports is in this thread.

    You are clearly not a mathematician or statistician. You are picking an argument with the wrong person in this area of expertise.

    The data is logarithmic, how ridiculous, .do you have anything to do with brexit?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NamPikToot View Post
    Can we move on now?
    The guy is a dangerous troll who needs to be exposed for the fraud he is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The guy is a dangerous troll who needs to be exposed for the fraud he is.
    not dangerous at all, unless he really works in a government office and has a say in decision makings, then we are all fucked

    definitely a fraud, low skilled civil servant trying to be something he is not, could be Smeggle

  15. #5465
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The guy is a dangerous troll who needs to be exposed for the fraud he is.
    Well after a 24hr tirade he's popped out a flounce, if he does have kids as he alluded to i feel sorry for them. They way he got hung up on a subject and being a civil servant, i imagine it was an insight into a younger version of Sausages.

  16. #5466
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    Any thoughts on a second wave emulating Spanish flu to return as more virulent than the first? We still know very little about this beast, and not enough to more than speculate, so hopefully it doesn't kick off another round of shitfests.

    'Expert' opinion varies, but according to some it should arrive around Autumn/Winter in Europe and the US, by which time most countries will have eased restrictions to reopen proper, as in legs wide open but fingers crossed; good timing!

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    It depends how closely the UK keeps to ICL advice. This advice warned about such dangers and proposed only certain restrictions be lifted at the trigger level. (Trigger is ICU percentage use). It mentions difficulty in making best choice between suppression and mitigation and does not include economic impacts.

    My view is the model is incomplete and should be updated to support a long term economic strategy of at least 2 years. This may show mitigation being the better solution, albeit the death rate will be higher.

  18. #5468
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Any thoughts on a second wave emulating Spanish flu to return as more virulent than the first? We still know very little about this beast, and not enough to more than speculate, so hopefully it doesn't kick off another round of shitfests.

    'Expert' opinion varies, but according to some it should arrive around Autumn/Winter in Europe and the US, by which time most countries will have eased restrictions to reopen proper, as in legs wide open but fingers crossed; good timing!
    Yeah. I believe all should be agreeable that the knowledgeable folks that travel these circles still haven't figured out the nature of this bug.
    And, yes, expert's opinions and theories do vary considerably as to what it might be and how to combat this one.

    I've heard, in passing, that it could even change form.....mutating into a stronger strain.

    And after four plus months of perceived anxiety - the positive numbers still hold. A 98 percentile of general recovery and an overwhelming range of mild or little effect.
    We tend to dwell on the severity and deaths - which is terribly minute and certainly not documented as all COVID related.

    Or....as nature might have it, this thing might just peter out/disappear.
    Historically, been known to happen.


    Oh - another item:
    The bug doesn't give a rat's arse nor abides by human-induced politics, data, intellect, or economics.
    We're a silly brood.....and nature knows this.

  19. #5469
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NamPikToot View Post
    Can we move on now?
    The numbers are measured differently.

    The experts come and go.

    The blame is spouted.

    ....

    Watch the TV series:

    "The Last Ship"

    "Naval Destroyer Nathan James is sent on what they're told is sign off/weapos test cruise/research mission in the Arctic. Accompanying them is scientist, Rachel Scott. After a few months in the Arctic while Scott is on the ice doing research, some men attack them.

    They get back to the ship and the Commander, Tom Chandler asks the doctor what's going on.

    She says that a deadly disease broke out a few months ago. At first, they thought it was contained but they had no cure. They felt that the cure was in the Arctic which why she's here. But she has since received word that it has now spread to most of the globe.

    Chandler tries to call the President but learns the President and Vice President are dead and the US government might not have long to survive. The current President tells him that the Nathan James was not in the hot zone so he and his crew are OK.

    But now it's up to them to safeguard Scott because she holds the key to the planet's survival. But there are those who want the cure too and they will do ..."


    Watch all scenarios discussed here in glorious technicolour, aboard a US Destroyer and when they touch ......

    Only 5 seasons with plenty of twists and turns.

    Download The.Last.Ship.COMPLETE.S01-S05.720p.BluRay.WEB-DL.x265-HETeam Torrent | 1337x
    Last edited by OhOh; 03-05-2020 at 10:06 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  20. #5470
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    Well on the bright side HoHo has five seasons of some shit TV to watch, so it ought to curtail the irrelevant drivel for a while.


  21. #5471
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    Pompeo and baldy orange cunto keep insisting they have "enormous" evidence the Wuhan virus originated in the Wuhan lab.

    The trouble is, they don't seem to be able to show any of it.

    The novel coronavirus pandemic which has led to outbreaks across the globe likely originated at a laboratory in Wuhan, China, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday.
    In an interview with ABC, Pompeo said there was “enormous evidence” backing claims that the COVID-19 virus, which has infected more than 3.45 million people worldwide and killed nearly a quarter of a million people since the outbreaks began in 2020, spread from a Chinese laboratory.
    Pompeo: 'Enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab - Foreign Affairs - Israel National News

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    Russia has more than 10,000 new cases today but the death rate is still strangely low.

    Mind you, when you're chalking them up as heart attacks etc. you can get away with that shit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The guy is a dangerous troll who needs to be exposed for the fraud he is.
    Popped me a red for suggesting he lay off the invective towards Troy in a good exchange - unhinged


    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Russia has more than 10,000 new cases today but the death rate is still strangely low.
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post


    Russia isn't much different from China in the 'truth' factor

  24. #5474
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    Zero new cases detected / reported in NZ today.

    Bit of a watershed that one.

  25. #5475
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    some of these are harsh truths


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