1. #5101
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    "Reasonably flat"?

    Also, although the numbers don't look bad, there may be other factors to consider, because the rest of the region is also pretty good (although a fuckload better than Sweden).
    In my opinion, the only way to measure the success of dealing with this virus, is to take population-size and -density into account. Here's a selection of countries:

    https://cdn-32.forumfiles.com/x8U8v2...2022.23.30.png

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    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    destroying the economy
    it was already on life support

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    ^^ disagree since most (~ 80%) of the population of Sweden is in the southern third of the country. The figures might look bad compared to suppression but not as bad as the models were predicting regards deaths.

    _----------
    Edit.

    The measures implemented by Sweden are also sustainable. The figures elsewhere will rise and fall as restriction are lifted and applied. The disruption elsewhere is not sustainable.
    Last edited by Troy; 26-04-2020 at 06:30 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    it was already on life support
    As someone put it: you're drowning, then someone throws you a baby.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    As someone put it: you're drowning, then someone throws you a baby.

    A more apt metaphor might suggest that the drowning and baby is but a dream.
    ....and that's generally how it's approached and accepted.

    An illusion.

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    ^ FOJ

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    The coronavirus has now infected more than 2.6 million people worldwide, causing a range of symptoms from fever and dry cough to the temporary loss of taste and smell.
    Now dermatology experts are warning of a new potential sign of the virus which may have previously gone overlooked: an inflammation of blood vessels in the hands and feet that’s been nicknamed “COVID toes”.
    Characterised by a reddish-blue discolouration of the extremities, the condition is proving particularly prevalent among kids.

    Coronavirus: New symptom identified as '''COVID toes'''

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    Quote Originally Posted by Latindancer View Post
    #5107
    The coronavirus has now infected more than 2.6 million people worldwide, causing a range of symptoms from fever and dry cough to the temporary loss of taste and smell
    Possibly worth noting a few have died as well.

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    The COVID-2019 Thread-94128038_868401270327984_8194494367486967808_n-jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The figures might look bad compared to suppression
    The figures don't "look" bad, they look ten times worse than their neighbours.

    The disruption elsewhere is not sustainable.
    Agreed. Alternatives have to be found.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    The figures don't "look" bad, they look ten times worse than their neighbours.
    The neighbours didn't go skiing in the Italy alps in the first two weeks of February, it brought back a couple of super spreaders to Sweden.
    What I find more amazing is that Austria has so few cases, especially when compared to what their neighboring countries have.

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    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    2.92 million cases (1.88 million active).

    203,000 deaths.

    Yesterday's new cases dropped from 100,000+ back to 90,000.

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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    2.92 million cases (1.88 million active).

    203,000 deaths.

    Yesterday's new cases dropped from 100,000+ back to 90,000.
    Not long ago the dead hit 10k, then 20 and 50k and we were thinking blimey this is one serious mofo...

    Then our leaders moved from complacent to panic telling us to burn our houses down to protect them from burglars.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    The neighbours didn't go skiing in the Italy alps in the first two weeks of February, it brought back a couple of super spreaders to Sweden.
    What I find more amazing is that Austria has so few cases, especially when compared to what their neighboring countries have.
    Weekend figures are always lower, don't know why.

    Meanwhile imagine a disease for which there is no cure or vaccine, that spreads quickly and easily without showing symptoms (a clever mechanism) and when symptoms occur kills quickly though not all the time.
    Remember they still haven't developed a vaccine for aids. If this was a deadly as aids we'd REALLY be in trouble.

    Scientists fear that it may prove impossible to produce a working coronavirus vaccine and believe the world may have to simply learn to adapt to the permanent threat of COVID-19.


    The UK's Chief Medical Officer, Christopher Whitty, told a Parliamentary committee on Friday that there was "concerning" evidence suggesting that it may not be possible to stimulate immunity to the virus.


    "The first question we do not know is 'do you get natural immunity to this disease if you have had it, for a prolonged period of time?'" Whitty said.


    "Now if we don't then it doesn't make a vaccine impossible but it makes it much less likely and we simply don't know yet.


    He said there was "a little bit of evidence that some people have been reinfected with this having had a previous infection."


    He added: "That's a slightly concerning situation."


    Read more: There are more than 70 potential coronavirus vaccines in the works. Here are the top efforts to watch, including the 16 vaccines set to be tested in people this year.


    No coronavirus vaccine has ever been produced


    Doubts about the possibility of a viable vaccine


    Whitty told the committee the evidence from other forms of coronavirus was that "immunity [to the virus] wanes relatively quickly."


    He said that the world needs "to be careful that we don't assume that we are going to have a vaccine for this disease as we have had for, let's say measles, which once you have it you're protected for life."


    "We cannot guarantee success," he added.


    "Vaccines are looked for, for every infectious disease, they are not found for all of them."


    The World Health Organisation on Saturday also threw doubt on the possibility that immunity to the virus could be induced.


    In a statement about plans by some governments to introduce so-called "immunity passports," for those previously infected with the virus the organisation said in a statement that: "there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."


    Other scientists have also raised the possibility that a working vaccine may never emerge to deal with COVID-19.


    In an interview with The Observer David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College, London said the world had to realise that a vaccine may not be possible.


    "You don't necessarily develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against every virus," he told the paper.


    "Some viruses are very, very difficult when it comes to vaccine development - so for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to find ways to go about our lives with this virus as a constant threat."


    Even if a fully effective vaccine proves impossible, Whitty believes that a partially effective vaccine would still be worth pursuing.


    "You can have vaccines that are not capable of providing [high levels of] immunity, but they provide enough protection that people don't get severe disease.


    "So we might get a vaccine that is rather less effective but is sufficiently effective, that if we vaccinated everyone at a high level of dying from this... we might well be able to massively reduce fatalities even if there was still natural infections."
    Scientists fear the hunt for a coronavirus vaccine will fail and we will all have to live with the '''constant threat''' of COVID-19
    If we stop testing right now wed have very few cases, if any. Donald J Trump.

  15. #5115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    The numbers are going up ever so slightly but for all intents and purposes it's been stomped out here.
    just like covids 1 to 18 were.
    god, are you joking? Covid 1-to-18? are you that far disconnected from the real world?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Bored shiteless here, so let's open the weary legs and see where that takes us...
    Is 200k attributed deaths such a bad thing? Sure it's a lot of people - almost an entire day's worth of increased global population - but we're well over that already with the benefit of accurate and comprehensive data, while at a certain point the numbers cease to matter and people get on with life as best they can.
    Ist not the total numbers that matter it’s the speed of people dying. Did you forget the pictures in New York with cooling containers for the dead bodies? Did you already forget the mass graves? Did you forget the reports of people complaining what to do with the dead bodies?

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Just mho, it's not so much the numbers that scare us so many months in, as our ignorance of what this thing is, how it works, how contagious is it, how long it incubates, and a dozen other questions that no expert can more than guess at. That's what's scary, not knowing what it is that could suddenly take off with the potential to strike not hundreds of thousands but hundreds of millions.
    The only thing that scares me is how ill prepared we all were after **soooo many warnings. The experts have figured out a lot already and I’am confident that they will find something soon. But maybe you are confusing this virus with a virus in your software.

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    So our leaders pay experts to console us that best of the best are working on a magic potion. Never mind that this is unrealistic, because most people are too stupid to compute that best case scenario has it months if not years away, by which time at current rates and a possible second wave, added to the real threat - current levels of ignorance - that 200k dead could be something from the good old days we should be celebrating. And then another bunch of experts work in tandem to offer an alternate form of salvation, that the virus might burn itself out; sure it might, and it might not.
    Why pay? They been there, **warned us, and they are even having fun trying to find a cure. It’s their job it’s a challenge. The only experts I’am afraid of are the religious nutters and Trumpanzees. Yesterday they had a 2 min. report (german news 8 PM best time) about churches trying to re-open. Don’t we have other problems? Do I need know about idiots who are supposedly suffering from not getting their weekly doses of bullshit? Scary!

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    I think our resident Belgian got it right, you can't rationalise with Nature so best is coexist, accept the occasional batch of random losses, and try to minimise them preferably without destroying the economy because with that goes everything else, including more lives than you thought to save, through lost livelihoods and the will to live.
    Sorry, but Belgium is a shithole!!!They can't even coexist with themselves. A country that holds the world record of not being able to form a government is not a good example. I believe less then 50% of them are working right now and they found a great excuse to stay home. Their beer and chocolate also sucks big time. [/QUOTE]

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    On other fronts, Ebola is alive and well, though not in London or Paris so that's ok, while the HIV death toll has topped 32m, and that's the official number so it's probably safe to add a few on account of image in countries that have no right to such vanity; and that's after decades, being no closer to a vaccine than we were twenty years ago.
    Sorry but I can’t be arsed to be worrying about every disease there is in this world. I only know 1 person who has aids. And she’s been living with it for over 30 years (and Freddy M. is sadly looking down). And as far as I know there have been reports about people being cured. So, there is progress! It’s the Trumpanzees and religious groups who are not investing in science, imagine all that money being wasted for an afterlife that doesn’t exist. Ohh, and before I forget, yes there is Ebola and AIDS medicine being used right now for what? BINGO! You got it covid-19. If it makes you feel any better my friend, here’s a statement from a doctor in Italy ”Corona is the Ebola for the rich”.


    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Permanent social and workplace changes are certain, so let's remove some of the pain by starting now rather than later, revise attitudes and gradually ease restrictions toward reopening, preserve sensible spacing/sanitation, save what's left of a crippled world economy, and take it from there.
    In practice already or in the making.
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Or continue on the same course that first complacent and then panicked leaders chose, hoping to reduce virus deaths but destroying more lives than the virus does, and creating a string of dead economies.
    As mother nature says: “The more the merrier” and I don’t think she gives a shit from what they die of. And speaking of mother nature, we had no rain here in April and not much since the beginning of the year. The drought/climate change is going to make covid-19 look like a mere cold. **But don’t say we didn’t warn you.

  17. #5117
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    Remember they still haven't developed a vaccine for aids. If this was a deadly as aids we'd REALLY be in trouble.
    AIDS isn't that deadly any more as there are many treatments for HIV that stop it progressing.

    Like I said earlier , if SARS-COV2 mated with Ebola, and its bastard love child had the same mortality rate and could lurk around hidden for a couple of weeks, then we'd get rid of all those dumb fucking trumpanzees in a few weeks, and intelligent people would not quibble about social distancing or lockdowns.
    Last edited by harrybarracuda; 26-04-2020 at 06:48 PM.

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    And I could stop vomiting ...


    The COVID-2019 Thread-trump-leunig-jpg

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    Australia Announces the COVIDSafe Contact-Tracing App

    The COVID-2019 Thread-covidsafe-jpg

    Australia on Sunday launched COVIDSafe, a contact-tracing mobile app part of the country's work to slow the spread of COVID-19.

    The app could help the Australian government find and contain outbreaks quickly so it could ease restrictions while still keeping Australians safe.

    The app will quickly alert people who may be at risk of having contact with the COVID-19 (coronavirus). It will allow health officials to tell you if you have come into close contact with someone who is diagnosed with the virus. If you become infected with coronavirus, the app will also assist health officials to notify people you have been in close contact with so they can self-quarantine and get tested.


    The app operates on a person’s phone as they go about their day. It securely logs the encrypted reference codes of devices of other people who are using the app who have been in close proximity to you. To be effective, users should have the app running in the background of their phone whenever they are coming into contact with people.


    The user registers to use the app by entering a name, phone number and postcode, and selecting their age range. On the basis of this information, an encrypted reference code is generated for the app on that phone. That code is changed every 2 hours to make it even more secure.


    The app uses Bluetooth to look for other devices that have the app installed. It takes a note when that occurs, securely logging the other users’ encrypted reference code. The date and time, distance and duration of the contact are generated on the user’s phone and also recorded.

    The location is not recorded.


    This information is encrypted and stored on the phone.


    The app uses a rolling 21 day window to allow for the maximum 14 day incubation period, and the time taken to confirm a positive test result. The rolling 21 day window allows the app to continuously note only those user contacts that occur during the coronavirus incubation window. Contacts that occurred outside of the 21 day window are automatically deleted from the user’s phone.

    The close contact information can only be accessed by relevant health officials if there has been a positive case to help alert those who may need to be tested.

    The Australian government says that the app will never track your location.

    Downloading the app is voluntary. You can delete the app from your phone at any time. At the end of the Australian pandemic, users will be prompted to delete the app from their phone. This will delete all app information on a person’s phone. The information contained on the highly secure information storage system will also be destroyed at the end of the pandemic, according to the Australian authorities.


    “We need the COVIDSafe app as part of the plan to save lives and save livelihoods,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said in the statement. “The more people who download this important public health app, the safer they and their family will be, the safer their community will be and the sooner we can safely lift restrictions and get back to business and do the things we love.”


    “Unless and until a person is diagnosed with Covid-19, no contact information collected in the app is disclosed or able to be accessed,” Minister for Government Services Stuart Robert said in the statement.“Once the person agrees and uploads the data, only the relevant state or territory public health officials will have access to information.”

    The COVID-2019 Thread-covidsafe-jpg

  20. #5120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    The numbers are going up ever so slightly but for all intents and purposes it's been stomped out here.
    just like covids 1 to 18 were.
    Sigh. Again, the "19" represents the year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    The COVID-2019 Thread-94128038_868401270327984_8194494367486967808_n-jpg
    If this was true, Trump could be on to something when he recommended ingesting disinfectants.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    god, are you joking? Covid 1-to-18? are you that far disconnected from the real world?
    Me? You obviously haven't been paying attention.
    Kellyanne Conway made it clear.

  23. #5123
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido offers a grim lesson in the next phase of the battle against COVID-19. It acted quickly and contained an early outbreak of the coronavirus with a 3-week lockdown. But, when the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave of infections hit even harder. Twenty-six days later, the island was forced back into lockdown.

    A doctor who helped coordinate the government response says he wishes they’d done things differently. “Now I regret it, we should not have lifted the first state of emergency,” Dr. Kiyoshi Nagase, chairman of the Hokkaido Medical Association, tells TIME.

    Hokkaido’s story is a sobering reality check for leaders across the world as they consider easing coronavirus lockdowns: Experts say restrictions were lifted too quickly and too soon because of pressure from local businesses, coupled with a false sense of security in its declining infection rate.

    “Hokkaido shows, for example, that what’s happening in the U.S. with individual governors opening up is very dangerous; of course you can’t close interstate traffic but you need to put controls in place,” says Kazuto Suzuki, Vice Dean of International Politics at Hokkaido University. “That’s what we now know: Even if you control the first wave, you can’t relax.”
    Hokkaido Forced to Reinstate Lockdown After Coronavirus Returned | Time

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    Isolating the Sick at Home, Italy Stores Up Family Tragedies


    “Stay home” measures have helped Italy control the coronavirus, but home is also a dangerous place that may be propping up the infection curve the lockdown was meant to suppress.

    When her middle-aged son got sick, Ruffina Pompei did what she had done for decades, bringing vegetable soup and freshly squeezed orange juice to his room. She slept in an armchair outside his room and changed his clothes. She told her husband, 89, to steer clear.But the coronavirus tore through the apartment.
    Her son died in a hospital in the region of Abruzzo on March 29. Her husband died the next day in the same hospital. Ms. Pompei, 82, was also diagnosed with the virus.

    “I could not leave him alone,” she said of her son.

    Before everyone else in the West, Italians received and largely obeyed an order to stay at home. “I’m staying home” became a hashtag, then the name of a national ordinance and then a motto hung from balconies and windows. But while staying home has worked, reducing the rate of infections, bringing down the daily toll of the dead and creating breathing room for hospitals, home has become a dangerous place for many Italians.

    Italian households represent “the biggest reservoir of infections,” said Massimo Galli, the director of the infectious diseases department at Luigi Sacco University Hospital in Milan. He called the cases “the possible restarting point of the epidemic in case of a reopening.”

    The family acts as a multiplier, said Andrea Crisanti, the top scientific consultant on the virus in the Veneto region. “This is a ticking time bomb,” he said.

    The predicament of home infections is emerging not just in Italy but in hot spots across the globe, in Queens and the Paris suburbs, as well as the working-class neighborhoods of Rome and Milan. It is also a problem that local officials and epidemiologists say is getting too little attention, particularly as the government has announced tentative steps toward reopening in early May."

    The problem is one the Chinese government bludgeoned quickly. It ordered the roundup of all residents in Wuhan infected with the coronavirus, warehousing them in quarantine camps, sometimes with little care. While that approach may have helped contain the virus, ripping people apart from their homes is anathema to Western democracies, especially Italy, where tight-knit families are the rule.


    Italy, like other Western democracies, has wrestled with the difficulty of balancing the containment of the virus with the economic, social and political costs of removing people without symptoms from their own homes. The government has not made isolating patients outside their homes a priority.
    Federico Ricci-Tersenghi, a scientist at the University of Rome La Sapienza who specializes in theoretical , said that stemming the contagion required facilities like in China dedicated to isolating positive cases.modeling

    “Staying home is not the solution, not for the economy or for the epidemic,” he said. “To reopen without having this in place is very risky. It’s probable that the epidemic will start up again.”

    When a delegation of Chinese doctors came to Italy in March, they emphasized the importance of prefabricated structures with a high number of beds to isolate all the positive cases.

    “They explained that it was essential to separate positive cases from the family,” recalled Giampietro Rupolo, the president of the Red Cross in Padua, who was among those who greeted them. “Otherwise it was harder to contain.”


    But Italian officials have clearly determined that housing the infected in dedicated facilities is not feasible.

    Giovanni Rezza, director of infectious diseases at the national health institute, said that the government did not think that a centralized effort was “feasible, possible, appreciated.”

    More at:

    Isolating the Sick at Home, Italy Stores Up Family Tragedies - The New York Times
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  25. #5125
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    ^ and this is it in a nutshell, all the talk is just that until a viable vaccine is administered - there is no real way you can peel back the lockdown without a consequential increase in cases. End of.

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