The COVID-2019 Thread

[HuangLao]

Smokers are protected, naturally.
Well known.

[Troy]

I guess a nicotine patch is less dangerous than Trump's idea of injecting disinfectant...

[harrybarracuda]

Oh! It's the old "nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR)" I had forgotten all about them. Don't be shy, do tell us more.

Well you see mate, your angiotensin converting enzymes 2 (or ACE2) hang around waiting for the virus to come along and grab hold because they are what is known in the trade as a principal receptor molecule, but if your nicotinic acetylcholine receptors are there, it sort of fucks it up a bit.

It's not your parts, it's your labour guv.

[harrybarracuda]

I guess a nicotine patch is less dangerous than Trump's idea of injecting disinfectant...

Ultimately, however, drinking large amounts of Clorox *will* stop the virus from killing you.

Maybe this is the baldy orange cunto logic at work.

[Headworx]

... faux intellectual themes that we attach to most everything.

We? Have you got a mouse in your pocket?

[harrybarracuda]

We? Have you got a mouse in your pocket?

It's the Royal "we".

[Cujo]

Smokers are protected, naturally.
Well known.

What do you mean?

[harrybarracuda]

What do you mean?

Well most of Northern Thailand are smokers for at least a quarter of the year, perhaps he means that.

[harrybarracuda]

This is quite pitiful.

COVID-19 Fact Checking Report - 2020

COVID-19 BotsWatch Dashboard -

[jabir]

I'm not sure all that moan was completely justified. Thailand has been in lockdown and not that many returned to the provinces. The numbers reported show the virus is being controlled and I have seen no reason to doubt it here. I have no idea about Bangkok where population density is much higher.

Has the government only postponed payments for the military gear or cancelled? Subs, tanks and planes aren't much use right now...they at least realise that.

One should wonder where Thai subs would be used, and against which potential enemy, or to bully neighbours by sinking the occasional Cambodian fishing vessel that strays into disputed waters.

Gulf of Thailand maximum depth is 85m, mean depth 58m; not quite a sub environment.

As I recall a couple of years back when said glorious leaders announced the intended purchase of 3 chinky subs for c$1bn, Germany offered 6 used but far superior subs for the same price; perhaps it was an honest offer without the statutory bunce, which cynics (not me) might believe made the decision easier.

[harrybarracuda]

Must make some good coin out of it too.

Over the past month, seemingly spontaneous protest sites have popped up throughout the country that advocate for an end to lockdowns various states have mandated in an attempt to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Now, security researchers have tied much of this seemingly grass-roots activity to a single person.

Aaron Dorr is a well-known activist and lobbyist who has long been known for his advocacy of firearms ownership. Over a five-hour span on April 8, he registered six domains—reopenohio.com, reopenpa.com, reopenmn.com, reopeniowa.com, reopenwyoming.com, and reopenmissouri.com—and nine days later purchased reopentxnow.com.

He and his brothers then used a variety of state-specific Facebook groups, which according the the Des Moines Register have a total of more than 200,000 followers, to drive massive amounts of traffic to the newly registered addresses. In turn, the domains redirected visitors to a host of state-specific gun advocacy sites, such as Iowa Gun Owners. Each gun ownership site used a different organization name and prominently displayed banners decrying the lockdowns in their respective states.

“The various groups seemed loosely affiliated and seem to be run by different people in each state, but tie back to a Mr. Aaron Dorr,” researchers with Internet analysis tool provider DomainTools wrote in an analysis published on Friday. “As we looked further we would find that this is more of a small group’s astroturfing effort.”


At least 13 of the firearms coalition sites are maintained with website tools provided by One Click Politics, which describes itself as a nonpartisan online advocacy site. The tools allow a single person to create and manage content, run email campaigns, and raise money on multiple sites. All of the sites also use the WordPress content management system that are set up in a similar manner and often carry almost identical language. Although the sites’ domain registrants were obscured through a proxy service, it appeared all of the sites were run by the same person or entity.

Then the DomainTools researchers found something else. The site at iowagunowners.org, a domain that was registered in 2007, listed a contact phone number that was included in an Iowa state lobbyist report completed by Dorr. The researchers also discovered that historical HTTPS certificates for all of the sites referenced Dorr’s personal site, as well as gun coalitions in other states.

Another similarity among the gun ownership sites: they all use a donate button provided by Anedot, a donation site for churches, charities and non-profit organizations. Almost all of the configurations for the buttons are identical.

“We can say that these initial domains and the campaign behind them are definitely a small group-run astroturfing effort and that the Dorrs plan to continue operating these nation-wide campaigns,” the DomainTools report said.

Friday's report came four days after KrebsOnSecurity also linked several of the sites to Dorr. Reporter Brian Krebs said that at least two of the gun ownership sites included the same Google Analytics tracker in their source code. The same tracker was present on reopentexasnow.com, reopenwi.com, reopeniowa.com and several anti-gun control sites registered to the Dorr brothers.

Dorr declined to answer questions for this post or to provide a statement. A text message he sent me contained a link the the previously mentioned Des Moines Register article. The article quotes Dorr saying: “This virus has claimed the lives of (0.002%) of the state’s population, while sending over 160,000 Iowans into horrific financial devastation. Our members asked for a vehicle with which to make their voices heard, and we are happy to give them that voice."

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/04/many-supposedly-grass-roots-reopen-sites-are-tied-to-one-pro-gun-lobbyist/

[Dragonfly]

well, all glorious leaders are starting to realize that lockdowns don't work, and they handed themselves a shit sandwich for years to come

Nature wins, all the time, but the arrogance of global leaders to think they could control it in some ways, or even slow it down in meaningful ways is completely futile

what have things changed in 2 months? nothing, hospitals will still be running low on patient capacity, so thinking we could recover decades of neglect in 2 months was just being delusional

at least now they can see that,

be ready for Wave 2, it's going to be fooking brutal

[Dragonfly]

I suspect they will stop publishing numbers when Wave 2 strikes as it would be pointless, and would just increase the stress levels of the population and could lead to full riots and cahos

[bowie]

Antibody testing

hmm… first California, now New York


redacted to reduce post size – interested, see link

Governor: Antibody survey shows wide exposure to virus in NY - AOL News

Governor: Antibody survey shows wide exposure to virus in NY
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Apr 23rd 2020 2:51PM

NEW YORK (AP) — More evidence is emerging that far more New Yorkers have had the coronavirus than the number confirmed by lab tests, officials said Thursday.

A state survey of about 3,000 people found that nearly 14% had antibodies, suggesting they had been exposed to the virus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at his daily news briefing.

In New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., 21% of the people tested had antibodies…

Earlier Thursday, New York City's health commissioner said many as 1 million people in New York City may have been exposed to the coronavirus.

At least 263,000 people statewide, including about 142,000 people in New York City, have tested positive for the coronavirus, but city Health Commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot called those numbers “the tip of the iceberg.”

[Dragonfly]

if NY is lucky, they would have at least at least 25% of their population infected with the current numbers

in Europe, it's estimated to be less than 5% of the population, which is really bad because the virus is not spreading fast enough as it should

they are already thinking of another wave of lockdowns for September,

[lom]

be ready for Wave 2, it's going to be fooking brutal

If you know your Papillion then you also know which wave is the strongest

[Troy]

if NY is lucky, they would have at least at least 25% of their population infected with the current numbers

in Europe, it's estimated to be less than 5% of the population, which is really bad because the virus is not spreading fast enough as it should

they are already thinking of another wave of lockdowns for September,

The Imperial College report suggests that suppression should be maintained until a vaccine is available and administered to ~80% of the population. That's a lockdown scenario of 12-18 months.

I doubt such a lengthy lockdown is possible for any nation. Instead, there needs to be controlled lifting and reapplication of restrictions, allowing the virus to infect a certain number. The current method is not sustainable for lengthy periods.

[bowie]

vaccine is available and administered to ~80% of the population

I saw an interview with the CEO of one of the vaccine manufacturers - he was pretty to the point concerning our hopeful expectations. His points, be they right or wrong but he's the boss, were: development, testing, verification/validation/approval, manufacturing, distribution, inoculation. In his opinion, he said we are at least 4-5 years out from seeing a vaccine having any impact on the number of infected.

Now, he didn't sound bleak, just matter-of-fact. Including the fact that all stops are out and there is no lack of resources working on this. We will be lucky if we see results earlier.

A side note to this is the medicos need to find a curative regime. Vaccines are preventative. If the medicos can find a treatment to interrupt the virus - two avenues, one is to interrupt the viruses ability to attach to a cell, the second is interrupting the viruses ability to crack or cut open the cell and get inside.

[Dragonfly]

The Imperial College report suggests that suppression should be maintained until a vaccine is available and administered to ~80% of the population. That's a lockdown scenario of 12-18 months.

I doubt such a lengthy lockdown is possible for any nation. Instead, there needs to be controlled lifting and reapplication of restrictions, allowing the virus to infect a certain number. The current method is not sustainable for lengthy periods.

12-18 months is for development and early testing, it's not even sure it will work, and it could have a lot of side effects on a large scale. And the production for the entire world population would take years.

We are fucked either way, it's best to enjoy the ride while we can. The lockdowns will be far worse at the end. Like I said, too little too late now.

[Forethat]

For what it's worth, may I point out that an estimated 32 million people have died from AIDS since the HIV virus began to spread 40 years ago. 40 years. And there's still no vaccine available. And it's not like the brainy people haven't tried.

And a vaccine is what people pin their hopes to?

Someone might get incredibly lucky, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're still washing our hands in 2025 (those of us still around).

[PlanK]

Yup.

And nearly twenty years on from SARS 1 there's still no vaccine.
Now we're on SARS 2.0 and they haven't even cured the first one yet.

[Troy]

^^ & ^ Good points. I am only stating the findings of the report, which the UK government appear to be using as a basis for decision making. Unheeded, the model predicted a very large death toll, limited restrictions would still overwhelm hospitals and suppression was the best option for limiting deaths. However, the report says that no economic impact has been taken into account.

The restrictions will have to be lifted at some point. When they are, infections will occur and the restrictions reapplied. This will continue until either 80% have been infected or a vaccine is produced. At the same time, medicine to help combat the disease is also be trialled.

I like the idea of providing everyone with an oximeter to catch the virus early. Cheap and reliable method ?

[bowie]

The restrictions will have to be lifted at some point.

Just saw an interview with the main guy in the small business association concerning the lifting of restrictions. Not a nice report but makes sense.

You, speaking to the government, told businesses they must shut down due to medical concerns. So they did - they did not have a choice. Now you are telling them you can open again. But, guess what - the business is dead, you killed it, the majority of small businesses are operating on a shoestring, most are very competitive and have very, very low profit margins by necessity. They cannot and could not afford to shut down for one or two months.

Most of the small businesses cannot reopen. There are past due on rent, on bills, on supplies. The financial burden placed on them is/was too much to overcome.

So, now we are faced with a large number of unemployed with no jobs to return to. 'tis a bleak picture he painted. And he was talking about small businesses. Even with the available financial aid for the medium, large businesses, hotels, airlines, tours, hospitality in general that are dependent on tourists spending disposable income - well, you can read the tea leaves.

Now, as far as the markets - well, the markets are on the path to recovery, up, up, up, but, that does not paint a picture of economic recovery. Rather, it depicts the transfer of investment money from bad investments (tourism, hospitality, oil, etc.) to good investments (food, on-line, entertainment, food delivery, etc.)

So, in a nutshell - society is restructuring. What we will wind up with can be foreseen, primarily through commonsense - there is no quick cure for Covid, the economic/financial damage will take decades to overcome, if it ever does.

Latest is Cuomo needs USD $500B for New York. If Uncle Sam gives it to him - how large can the US deficit grow?, If Uncle Sam does not give it to him, what's the impact on New Yorks creditors who will not get paid?

Oh, the far reaching implications of the domino effect. Had onto your hats, gonna be a long, hard and rocky ride...

[baldrick]

on rent

when your economy/culture is built on this and all it takes is an event that forces people only to purchase what they need to survive

[HuangLao]

Just saw an interview with the main guy in the small business association concerning the lifting of restrictions. Not a nice report but makes sense.

You, speaking to the government, told businesses they must shut down due to medical concerns. So they did - they did not have a choice. Now you are telling them you can open again. But, guess what - the business is dead, you killed it, the majority of small businesses are operating on a shoestring, most are very competitive and have very, very low profit margins by necessity. They cannot and could not afford to shut down for one or two months.

Most of the small businesses cannot reopen. There are past due on rent, on bills, on supplies. The financial burden placed on them is/was too much to overcome.

So, now we are faced with a large number of unemployed with no jobs to return to. 'tis a bleak picture he painted. And he was talking about small businesses. Even with the available financial aid for the medium, large businesses, hotels, airlines, tours, hospitality in general that are dependent on tourists spending disposable income - well, you can read the tea leaves.

Now, as far as the markets - well, the markets are on the path to recovery, up, up, up, but, that does not paint a picture of economic recovery. Rather, it depicts the transfer of investment money from bad investments (tourism, hospitality, oil, etc.) to good investments (food, on-line, entertainment, food delivery, etc.)

So, in a nutshell - society is restructuring. What we will wind up with can be foreseen, primarily through commonsense - there is no quick cure for Covid, the economic/financial damage will take decades to overcome, if it ever does.

Latest is Cuomo needs USD $500B for New York. If Uncle Sam gives it to him - how large can the US deficit grow?, If Uncle Sam does not give it to him, what's the impact on New Yorks creditors who will not get paid?

Oh, the far reaching implications of the domino effect. Had onto your hats, gonna be a long, hard and rocky ride...

It's a global effect.
No society is more or less important than others.


...and from the looks of it, you folks are going to suffer the most - simply by the manner in which you're handling/approaching this mess.
Topped off by the already fantasy existence.
Double whamy.