1. #3926
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    What's happened so far today?


    As cases of Covid-19 across the globe surpass 1.1 million and deaths go above 62,000, here is today's key news:


    The UK has reported another 708 deaths - including a five-year-old child. Hospital admissions have gone up in the Midlands and elsewhere and the head of NHS England said there was a long road ahead and appealed to everyone to remain at home wherever possible


    A record number of virus deaths has also been recorded in the state of New York, which has seen another 630 deaths reported in the past 24 hours


    But there are signs of hope in Spain, as the number of reported fatalities dips below 900 for the first time in three days


    There's positive news in Italy too, where there has been a drop in the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care


    Meanwhile in China, where the outbreak began, a day of remembrance has been held to honour those who died

  2. #3927
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    I wonder who thought of this one?

    A new study has shown that an anti-parasitic drug already available around the world can kill the virus within 48 hours. Scientists found that a single dose of the drug, Ivermectin, could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture. The next steps are to determine the correct human dosage -- ensuring the doses shown to effectively treat the virus in vitro are safe for humans.
    Possible coronavirus drug identified: Ivermectin stops SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture -- ScienceDaily

  3. #3928
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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  4. #3929
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    Change course or a quarter of a million people will die in a "catastrophic epidemic" of coronavirus - warnings do not come much starker than that.

    The message came from researchers modelling how the disease will spread, how the NHS would be overwhelmed and how many would die.

    The situation has shifted dramatically and as a result we are now facing the most profound changes to our daily lives in peacetime.

    This realisation has happened only in the past few days.

    However, it is long after other scientists and the World Health Organization had warned of the risks of not going all-out to stop the virus.

    The crucial piece of evidence came from the scientists at Imperial College London who first realised the scale of the problem in China and whose advice is heavily influential in government.

    They said coronavirus was the most serious public health threat seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 flu pandemic - known as the Spanish flu.

    They assessed three strategies:

    Suppression - break chains of transmission, effectively trying to stop the epidemic in its tracks, and bring cases down as low as possible, as China has done
    Mitigation - accept you cannot stop the coronavirus so slow its spread and prevent a massive peak in cases that would overwhelm the NHS while trying to protect those most at risk of severe disease, which appeared to be the UK strategy last week
    Do nothing - and let the virus rip through the population

  5. #3930
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    In PI: 3,094 cases, 144 deaths (4.65%), 57 recovered

    Govt mulls 15 day quarantine extension. Lockdown was supposed to end after Easter

    Government mulls 15-day quarantine extension | Philstar.com

    Chinese-Filipino business group backs selective quarantine
    Chinese-Filipino business group backs selective quarantine | Inquirer News


    Some of the Filipinos positive in UK/ Ireland are health workers

    10 Filipinos positive for COVID-19 in UK, 7 in Ireland — envoy | Global News


    +++++

    In my work chat group, I heard that covid-19 patients at the Philippine General Hospital (largest public hospital in Manila) - when asked, most patients had no travel history abroad and most likely caught the virus while shopping in supermarkets or wet markets. So yeah, if you can, then buy what you need and minimize going out for shopping.

  6. #3931
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  7. #3932
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Hey, Troy - here's a statement for you to have a scream/complain at: if Covid-19 rates of death increase inline with the predicted (by me... ) Covid-19 global infection total then half a million people could die from Covid-19 infections caught in the next 30 days alone. Although, due to treatment/time of having the virus to recover/death, the number will be delayed by, what, 4-6 weeks?

    The point being, at this stage, as 'Arry pointed out a page or so ago, the numbers for April then May are gonna be horrific and stay horrific for the next 3 months or so before levelling off/decreasing.
    In Europe, I think Italy, Spain and Germany have reached their peaks and numbers will be under control by the end of April. The UK is still on the rise and the USA is going to be hit much worse than it was with the swine flu outbreak.

    One of the biggest problems seems to be people with the virus that don't show symptoms, or only very mild ones. That and the lack of testing means that the figures are heavily biased towards a much more deadly virus. The reports from Italy suggest the number of people infected could in the region of 100 times more than than stated.

    That doesn't mean I think all will be over by the end of April. Some of the restrictions could be lifted by mid May but people are going to be very wary about travelling for the rest of the year.

    I am still aiming for a return to Germany sometime in June but expect to have restrictions in place until Christmas.

    The idea that democracies fall apart in times of stress is just plain stupid and Jaberring Jabir should read up on his history.

  8. #3933
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    ^^ it's probably deliberate in many cases, but in China and Italy it was also, at least in part, down to the fact hospitals were overwhelmed and didn't have the time or available facilities to test all the cases.

    Regarding UK, I was chatting with my parents on Skype last night, and they'd mentioned that some news programs are reporting cases being logged as pneumonia; I didn't go into the specifics.

    The rate below, 50%+ of folks entering UK intensive care with Covid-19 is a bad sign.
    You've clearly done your research and thanks for sharing throughout.

    Not saying they don't as they almost certainly do, but what could be the logic behind deliberately skewing figures by certifying virus deaths as pneumonia or something else? While there's no accounting for 3W thinking, now that the virus is being taken seriously in the west it seems counter intuitive to artificially reduce the official death toll. In fact some might argue the more the merrier if it helps scare the shite out of people toward following best advice.

    Could be as you say convenience, with time and resources better devoted to the living, but one danger is that nobody could know what % of virus deaths are misdiagnosed, though it should be suspicious when a pandemic suddenly produces a surge in 'unrelated' deaths, while there's no going back on false certifications since the evidence is burned or buried.

    And thoughts to our invisible army coping with the carnage, a pathologist mate in North London says it's two 16-hour shifts in 3 days with standing room only in his lab.

  9. #3934
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    The idea that democracies fall apart in times of stress is just plain stupid and Jaberring Jabir should read up on his history.
    No, poor thing, democracies do not fall apart in times of stress, though they do cause some people to panic and exaggerate, quite a bit. If that rings no bells, try reading what was actually posted, and compare that against what you imagined to have read.

  10. #3935
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Not saying they don't as they almost certainly do, but what could be the logic behind deliberately skewing figures by certifying virus deaths as pneumonia or something else? While there's no accounting for 3W thinking, now that the virus is being taken seriously in the west it seems counter intuitive to artificially reduce the official death toll.
    Dead is dead and there's no reason to waste a limited resource, as the test kit is, to see if they were infected by covid-19.
    Patients already diagnose covid-19 positive will show up in the statistics if they die, the others wont.

  11. #3936
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    No, poor thing, democracies do not fall apart in times of stress, though they do cause some people to panic and exaggerate, quite a bit. If that rings no bells, try reading what was actually posted, and compare that against what you imagined to have read.
    Just an observation, that democracies working great in peacetime buckle easily when things go wrong, while harsher regimes can more effectively cope through difficult conditions.
    That is just plain bollox you jabbering fool so don't fooking patronise...and read your history

  12. #3937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    but expect to have restrictions in place until Christmas.
    My son, in the UK, suggested the same last week. He didn't elaborate on why. He and his wife are struggling keeping their, 2 and 5 year old, kids amused.

  13. #3938
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    There seems to be a pattern in the stats where reported cases on Sunday are lower than the previous day.

    I can only assume that this is because people involved in the reporting have a day off.

    Yesterday's 101,566 is today 84,811.

    If the pattern is repeated there will be a jump in today's numbers come midnight.

  14. #3939
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    The figures are to be taken with a great deal of reservation.

    Beside the intentional corrections there are many pluses by other deaths not really caused by Covid-19 (the usual death cases every usual year - are all closely investigated exactly what was that?) - and there are many minuses of deaths by old lone people in our modern society who do not have any contact with anybody, especially now, when nobody looks much around...

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    Long story, short, this is what the global "corona curve" looked as of March 24.

    The COVID-2019 Thread-virus-curve_6-jpg


    Fast forward to today when we we again have some good and bad news, oh and a graphic update of where on the curve the world is:

    The COVID-2019 Thread-jpm-2-jpg


    This Is Where The World Is On The "Corona Curve" At This Moment | Zero Hedge

    Note it indicates INFECTION/POPULATION. As we are all aware of; there are many ways to slice a loaf of bread.

    All opinions on accuracy post to this address:

    Contact Us | JPMorgan Chase Institute

    IMHO.

    JPM are one of the most wealthy banks in the world and have been for decades. They achieve this through their global "contacts", their global team of analysts, their global team of communicators, their global team of experienced decision makers and their focused management.
    Last edited by OhOh; 05-04-2020 at 12:37 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  16. #3941
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    the other shoes is yet to drop - too much hopium

  17. #3942
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Bit of a fucking cheek after baldy orange cunto has the US running around waving cheque books to steal other countries medical supply orders.

    US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that he has requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to supply Hydroxychloroquine tablets that can be used to treat Covid-19 patients.
    “After call today with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is giving serious consideration to releasing the hold it put on a US order for hydroxychloroquine,” Trump announced at the White House Coronavirus task force briefing that he requested PM Narendra Modi for more Hydroxychloroquine tablets.

    Covid-19 update: Requested PM Modi to release US order of hydroxychloroquine stockpile, says Trump - india news - Hindustan Times

  18. #3943
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Thick as fucking shit, and that Imran Khan is a useless tosser.

    Pakistani authorities are searching for tens of thousands of worshippers who attended an Islamic gathering in Lahore last month just as the novel coronavirus was taking root in the impoverished nation, officials said

    Authorities want to test or quarantine those who congregated at the Tablighi Jamaat – an Islamic missionary movement – from March 10 to March 12 amid fears they are now spreading Covid-19 across Pakistan and overseas.

    Organisers say about 100,000 people went to the meeting, which took place despite government requests to cancel it in light of the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

    Speaking on condition of anonymity, an official at Lahore’s district commissioner’s office said the gathering’s location outside the eastern city has now been sealed off.
    Fears of massive Pakistan coronavirus outbreak after 100,000 attended Lahore religious gathering | South China Morning Post



  19. #3944
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    Over 8000 deaths in the U.S. now. (That we know of).

  20. #3945
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    A handy check if you are in Singapore

    https://www.sgcovidcheck.com/

  21. #3946
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    the other shoes is yet to drop - too much hopium
    As the article writer states in their conclusion:

    "Translation: finally some good news as the bank concludes it might be reasonable to "gradually map out the potential global curve peak within two months."

    The risk is that any indication of a slowdown in new cases will also lead to an early relaxation of stricter social distancing practices, as this could drive an infection curve rebound, something which is already happening in Japan, where today there were a record 118 new cases .

    And since China has been rushing to reopen its economy to avoid an all out economic depression and did away with "social distancing" long ago, one can be certain that China's real numbers are exponentially higher than the political propaganda that Beijing is reporting to the outside world".
    Last edited by OhOh; 05-04-2020 at 01:40 PM.

  22. #3947
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    the other shoes is yet to drop - too much hopium
    It is strange that despite all the evidence pointing in the same direction, and all the experts saying pretty much the same thing for the last month or so, folks still seem to not grasp the seriousness of the situation. But, one month from now, if the pattern of 10 times increase in a month continues (which looks very likely) then the penny should finally drop with most folks. 1 million doesn't seem to have impressed folks, perhaps 10 million will...

    I'm pretty worried about a second wave coming to Korea. I also have zero belief in a chart that shows China having the problem under control. With Africa, India, South America, etc, yet to really take off like the US/Europe is doing (and the US will have 1 million+++ in a month), I see something approaching x10 increases month on month for the next 3 months. Perhaps 3-6 months thereafter for it to level out and drop if no vaccine is found. I don't see any signs of Europe peaking now, maybe in a month or two?

    You simply cannot look at Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong as a model for Europe, US, India, Africa, etc - they are two completely separate models with the latter just out of control. China pretends to be in the first model, but I just find that impossible to believe (I hope it's true though).
    How do I post these pictures???

  23. #3948
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post

    Not saying they don't as they almost certainly do, but what could be the logic behind deliberately skewing figures by certifying virus deaths as pneumonia or something else?
    I'm not sure it's deliberate. For decades, pneumonia has been put down as the cause of death in the UK in many cases which just aren't so. For example, my grandfather died of complications due to endless alcohol consumption and was in and out of hospital for months, he actually lived a lot longer than expected, it was a race to see what part of his body would shut down first... right at the end he got pneumonia and died, so that's what was written on the death certificate. So, I wouldn't say it's deliberately attempting to trick people or manipulate numbers, just conventional practice. Two other relatives who died basically of complications due to old age and smoking disease, they also, after months in hospital, got pneumonia and died a couple of days later - a last stage symptom, yet pneumonia was put down as the cause of death for both - conventional practice...

    I mean if you wanna be really literal the cause of death is pneumonia... It's just something that comes in at the very end when other diseases/causes have effectively killed the body allowing pneumonia to put the final dagger in.
    Last edited by Bettyboo; 05-04-2020 at 01:45 PM.

  24. #3949
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    I also have zero belief in a chart that shows China having the problem under control. With Africa, India, South America, etc,
    As I suggested JPM has been delivering a solid track record of results historically. A 100% win, I suspect not.

    It's, "To soon to tell"
    Last edited by OhOh; 05-04-2020 at 01:55 PM.

  25. #3950
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    I hope China has it under control, obviously. It's just such a big place with sooooo many huge cities and people packed very tightly together, and the Chinese New Year clearly had it spread everywhere...

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