1. #3901
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Bowie, I don't agree with your testing logic for one simple reason: the virus is so contagious. In some places, such as Taiwan, and to some extent Korea, where every case is tracked and hotspots are closed down very quickly then there's some chance to control the virus - still yet to see if this will be effective over time. In most places, certainly Europe and the US, it was not initially contained, so social distancing measures work to slow the spread down, not to slow the end of day total spread rate. If a vaccine comes quickly then the social distancing will have slowed the rate down and it can then be effectively stopped, but the longer it takes to get a vaccine (and remember, experts are still saying 12-18 months), the more the virus will spread thoroughly through societies/countries. Look at the US in a week's time, a month's time, the numbers will already be far huger than you earlier stated - social distancing (which the US and Europe have failed at thusfar) only slow down the spread, they don't stop it.

    With the numbers in the US today, actual real figures today for the USoA, 1 person in every 1,300 has corvid-19; that's 5 times higher than your global statistic today, in the US - and the US is growing so fast; the US is probably, what, as a rough guess based on Italy, Germany, etc, 1/10th of what it'll be in a month?. It's not gonna get any better in South America or Africa or Indian sub-continent is it?

    If you tested everyone today and most were negative, that has no meaning when in 1 years time if you tested again most people on the planet might have had the virus - it just takes time to spread; lots of negative tests early in a virus lifetime isn't indicative of end of day figures.

    With such a virus, that spreads so quickly and easily, the only thing that can stop massive numbers, thousands of times higher than your prediction, is a vaccine. If it's developed almost immediately then your figures can be right, let's hope so.
    Those are some scary numbers and of course it's pure speculation, but using the same variables how would you (anyone) estimate those numbers to read if the gov were to address the situation as I believe they should, and bin the softly softly approach of recommendations in favour of emergency legislation on social distancing, self isolation and quarantine with motivational fines and draconian prison sentences?

    Could save thousands, and from the numbers you are talking possibly tens of thousands of lives.

    Reason I ask is that I had an interesting chat earlier with the type of nice guy that would ask for permission before breaking someone else's window to escape a fire; I'm no fan of Dutuerte in the PI, but he went a few steps further by threatening to shoot curfew offenders, which pisses off career protesters that never need to examine details; my position was that regardless of the outcome, when the dust settles he should be credited with the estimated number of infections/lives a successful curfew would have saved - since that is what he intends to achieve.

  2. #3902
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Well, that's a pretty blind observation isn't it....

    Jabbberrjabberjabberrjabbbering fool...
    Oh, poor dear, hope you get over it, because what you see as obvious (when it is pointed out) quite clearly many world leaders do not. Idiot!

  3. #3903
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    There’s still a shortage of tests so only the very sick and suspect get tested.
    Correct, the stats are massively skewed at present imo.

  4. #3904
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    ^ the stats are all over the shop that's true. But, in all directions for many reasons, for example many patients who die from Covid-19 are likely put down as pneumonia on the death certificate - we know this was happening in China, and there's reports of it in Italy and the UK too. On the flip side, it's likely that huge numbers of folks get sick from the virus, don't show severe symptoms and are never recorded as having teh virus - if tested later, they may well test as having had the virus (and as 'Arry knows, the antibodies might show the way...).

    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Those are some scary numbers and of course it's pure speculation, but using the same variables how would you (anyone) estimate those numbers to read if the gov were to address the situation as I believe they should, and bin the softly softly approach of recommendations in favour of emergency legislation on social distancing, self isolation and quarantine with motivational fines and draconian prison sentences?
    I don't know, but there seems two schemas playing out:

    1) Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, etc - it's controlled well early on then there's some chance of keeping numbers low until a vaccine comes out. Of course, I reckon Korea (and maybe other places) will have second waves when more schools, universities, airports open up; that second wave may be out of control. These places are monitoring mobile phones, have drones, use ID cards for tracking cases, etc, stuff that the likes of Britain and US populations may find very hard to accept.

    2) US/Europe - too little, too late, so all they can do is slow down the curve hoping a vaccine will come soon.

    In the first case, total numbers can be kept low even over time, possibly, because the hotspots are dealt with quickly and thoroughly; the number of hotspots are low. In the second case, over time, the numbers are still huge, and no severity of measures will stop the spread over time although it may slow it, because there are pockets of virus/hotspots spread everywhere and some will ignite from time to time, so the virus is always spreading.

    BTW, my Italian colleague told me that fines, armed policing and prison sentences are all being used in Italy with not as much affect as the government had hoped.
    Last edited by Bettyboo; 04-04-2020 at 08:15 PM.
    How do I post these pictures???

  5. #3905
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    for example many patients who die from Covid-19 are likely put down as pneumonia on the death certificate - we know this was happening in China, and there's reports of it in Italy and the UK too.
    I've seen no reports of that happening in the UK.

    But it's damned sure happening in Russia, and that's why their figures have been so low.

    And it's no doubt deliberate.

  6. #3906
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    BTW, my Italian colleague told me that fines, armed policing and prison sentences are all being used in Italy with not as much affect as the government had hoped.
    Its Italy, crime and corruption are national passtimes as are ways to avoid the authority's enforcement.

  7. #3907
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    ^^ it's probably deliberate in many cases, but in China and Italy it was also, at least in part, down to the fact hospitals were overwhelmed and didn't have the time or available facilities to test all the cases.

    Regarding UK, I was chatting with my parents on Skype last night, and they'd mentioned that some news programs are reporting cases being logged as pneumonia; I didn't go into the specifics.

    The rate below, 50%+ of folks entering UK intensive care with Covid-19 is a bad sign.

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails The COVID-2019 Thread-screenshot-2020-04-04-22-36-a  

  8. #3908
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatic View Post
    Missus came home after meeting up with some friends asking me if this was true? She said that all her friends, from different sources, have been told that America developed the virus and planted it in China. Are they right?
    Sounds like she needs the Coronablocker 3000....


    The COVID-2019 Thread-corona-virus-blocker-mask-shipped-wuhan

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    Still going up, they are suggesting Easter Sunday as a peak.

    The latest UK coronavirus figures have been released by the government.


    Officials says that as of 17:00 BST on Friday, 3 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 4,313 have died - an increase of 708 from the previous day.


    As of 09:00 BST on Saturday a total of 183,190 people have been tested of whom 41,903 have tested positive.

  10. #3910
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    There appear to be no rules.

    Turkey has been accused of seizing hundreds of ventilators and sanitary equipment destined for Spain amid the escalating coronavirus pandemic.

    Spanish officials said Ankara was holding the ventilators for “the treatment of their own patients”, despite local governments in Spain having already paid millions for them.

    In a press conference on Friday, Spain’s foreign affairs minister, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, appeared to admit defeat in her attempts to convince her Turkish counterpart to release the ventilators in the coming days.

    “Turkey has imposed restrictions on the export of medical devices, motivated by the need for medical supplies,” she said, according to Spanish national media.

    Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported the ventilators were manufactured in Turkey on behalf of a Spanish firm that bought the components from China.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-turkey-spain-ventilators-medical-equipment-seized-a9447216.html

  11. #3911
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    On the other hand, there could be some bargains on offer.

    Container ports across the world aside from China are set to face imminent congestion as a swathe of boxes sent for shipment from factories in Asia arrive at their import destinations.

    Shipping lines started calling at Chinese ports again three weeks ago as the infection rate in China declined and production resumed. Some but not all of the schedules blanked during February were reinstated as outputs started to rise again and a lot of boxes stranded during the initial lockdown finally sailed.

    However, over the past 10 days the Covid-19 impact has dramatically hit consumer demand in American and European markets and buyers started cancelling orders as non-essential retail outlets closed and commerce generally shut-down.


    “This leaves a fair tonnage of goods already on the water on their way to western markets, most bought FOB or FCA, which means the buyer will need to manage them once they arrive,” James Hookham, secretary general of the Global Shippers Forum, told Splash.


    The inbound unwanted containers are triggering forecasts of congestion in port stacking yards and sparking debate about demurrage charges and storage policies.


    “With inland transport services under pressure due to driver availability, the next two to four weeks will be a busy time for importers as they attempt to manage their inventory in-country,” Hookham said.

    European and American ports ready for box congestion - Splash 247

  12. #3912
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    I've seen no reports of that happening in the UK.

    But it's damned sure happening in Russia, and that's why their figures have been so low.

    And it's no doubt deliberate.
    Perhaps not. If someone is admitted to a hospital for pneumonia and there is no coronavirus test done because there is a shortage of tests, I don’t think a hospital would put the cause of death as COVID19. It would only be a guess and they would have to say pneumonia. There seems to be a severe shortage of tests in Russia like in the US.

  13. #3913
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    I’ll add to that. Recently, I became aware that hospitals put the cause of death as what one was diagnosed with when they are admitted. It doesn’t matter all the other complications that come up which contributed or caused the death.

  14. #3914
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    A quite granular map if you wish to look at your little piece of America.

    Covid-19 USA timeseries

  15. #3915
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Perhaps not. If someone is admitted to a hospital for pneumonia and there is no coronavirus test done because there is a shortage of tests, I don’t think a hospital would put the cause of death as COVID19. It would only be a guess and they would have to say pneumonia. There seems to be a severe shortage of tests in Russia like in the US.
    Or they are doing what China did - lying.

    Which is more believable of Putin?

    Here's the head of the Russian Doctors Union:

    Dr. Vasilieva, the detained doctors’ union head, said in a video late last month that authorities were lying about the true number of infections, accusing them of deliberately misclassifying people who had developed the disease as victims of ordinary pneumonia.

    Russian Doctor Detained After Challenging Virus Figures - The New York Times
    If anyone is going to lie to try and make himself look good it's Putin.

    I'm pretty sure the bald orange turd would be doing it if the US didn't have a free press.

  16. #3916
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    Container ports across the world aside from China are set to face imminent congestion as a swathe of boxes sent for shipment from factories in Asia arrive at their import destinations.Shipping lines started calling at Chinese ports again three weeks ago as the infection rate in China declined and production resumed. Some but not all of the schedules blanked during February were reinstated as outputs started to rise again and a lot of boxes stranded during the initial lockdown finally sailed.
    However, over the past 10 days the Covid-19 impact has dramatically hit consumer demand in American and European markets and buyers started cancelling orders as non-essential retail outlets closed and commerce generally shut-down.
    “This leaves a fair tonnage of goods already on the water on their way to western markets, most bought FOB or FCA, which means the buyer will need to manage them once they arrive,” James Hookham, secretary general of the Global Shippers Forum, told Splash.
    The inbound unwanted containers are triggering forecasts of congestion in port stacking yards and sparking debate about demurrage charges and storage policies.
    “With inland transport services under pressure due to driver availability, the next two to four weeks will be a busy time for importers as they attempt to manage their inventory in-country,” Hookham said.
    European and American ports ready for box congestion - Splash 247
    \
    I just got a stiffy.

  17. #3917
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    ^ Putin, Trump, the Russian maniac, Herr Generilissimo, the Flippo maniac - the list is pretty long to be fair, 'Arry.

  18. #3918
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragonfly View Post
    I came here full time for work (sans Work Permit, mind you didn't need one
    Good God! Are you a luk kreung coon?

  19. #3919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatic View Post
    Missus came home after meeting up with some friends asking me if this was true? She said that all her friends, from different sources, have been told that America developed the virus and planted it in China. Are they right?
    I do hope you gave her a good clip round the ears for being such a doltish chickenhead.

    Very disheartening when one's chattel spouts such utter gibberish, especially after they have been de-thaied and had their brains jump-started from its previous Isaan inertia.

    Never been one for domestic abuse but hearing such drivel demands exceptional measures. Tell her from me that she deserves a thrashing.

  20. #3920
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    ^ crickey, so your saggy is an ex Isaan bloke with airs and graces and wrinkly back view.

  21. #3921
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    Are you in therapy?

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    Which view of waves breaking on the shore does your blokes wrinkly back remind you of...hope its not somewhere on the Algarve, it'll put you off your vinegar stroke looking out to sea from the flat once you relocate.

  23. #3923
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    I just got a stiffy.
    Is it related to a post or did you just find some particularly arousing goat porn?

  24. #3924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    de-thaied and had their brains jump-started from its previous Isaan inertia.
    Dreaming again.

  25. #3925
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    Good grief...

    US demand for firearms surges amid pandemic



    Background checks for gun sales in the US reached an all-time monthly high of 3.7 million in March, as coronavirus fears led to long queues outside firearm stores across the country.


    The sales figures far surpass those recorded in March 2019, of 2.6 million, and are the highest since the FBI’s criminal background check system was launched in 1998.


    Weapons stores have been included as non-essential businesses and ordered to shut in some states, though this has resulted in legal challenges over whether this contravenes the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.


    The number of background checks does not mean that an equal number of guns were sold, as the overall figure does not include whether the person passed the background check successfully.


    But the record number does indicate that demand has increased dramatically, with some firearm stores across the US inundated with buyers and long lines, such as this queue in Long Island, New York.

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