The COVID-2019 Thread

[OhOh]

Puts the little shits who were spitting at police to shame.

Another assisting their fellow citizens.

[tomcat]

...a long read, but worth the effort:

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

• Story by Ed Yong (The Atlantic)
• 12:53 PM ET

• Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable. In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his TED Talk. In 2018, I wrote a story for The Atlantic arguing that America was not ready for the pandemic that would eventually come. In October, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security war-gamed what might happen if a new coronavirus swept the globe. And then one did. Hypotheticals became reality. “What if?” became “Now what?”

So, now what? In the late hours of last Wednesday, which now feels like the distant past, I was talking about the pandemic with a pregnant friend who was days away from her due date. We realized that her child might be one of the first of a new cohort who are born into a society profoundly altered by COVID-19. We decided to call them Generation C.

As we’ll see, Gen C’s lives will be shaped by the choices made in the coming weeks, and by the losses we suffer as a result. But first, a brief reckoning. On the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest. Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed.

“No matter what, a virus [like SARS-CoV-2] was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems,” says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine. More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.


As my colleagues Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer have reported, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed and distributed a faulty test in February. Independent labs created alternatives, but were mired in bureaucracy from the FDA. In a crucial month when the American caseload shot into the tens of thousands, only hundreds of people were tested. That a biomedical powerhouse like the U.S. should so thoroughly fail to create a very simple diagnostic test was, quite literally, unimaginable. “I’m not aware of any simulations that I or others have run where we [considered] a failure of testing,” says Alexandra Phelan of Georgetown University, who works on legal and policy issues related to infectious diseases.

• The testing fiasco was the original sin of America’s pandemic failure, the single flaw that undermined every other countermeasure. If the country could have accurately tracked the spread of the virus, hospitals could have executed their pandemic plans, girding themselves by allocating treatment rooms, ordering extra supplies, tagging in personnel, or assigning specific facilities to deal with COVID-19 cases. None of that happened. Instead, a health-care system that already runs close to full capacity, and that was already challenged by a severe flu season, was suddenly faced with a virus that had been left to spread, untracked, through communities around the country. Overstretched hospitals became overwhelmed. Basic protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves, began to run out. Beds will soon follow, as will the ventilators that provide oxygen to patients whose lungs are besieged by the virus.

With little room to surge during a crisis, America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency. That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states. Cooperation has given way to competition; some worried hospitals have bought out large quantities of supplies, in the way that panicked consumers have bought out toilet paper.

Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018. On January 28, Luciana Borio, who was part of that team, urged the government to “act now to prevent an American epidemic,” and specifically to work with the private sector to develop fast, easy diagnostic tests. But with the office shuttered, those warnings were published in The Wall Street Journal, rather than spoken into the president’s ear. Instead of springing into action, America sat idle.

Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. “Much worse,” said Ron Klain, who coordinated the U.S. response to the West African Ebola outbreak in 2014. “Beyond any expectations we had,” said Lauren Sauer, who works on disaster preparedness at Johns Hopkins Medicine. “As an American, I’m horrified,” said Seth Berkley, who heads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.”

I. The Next Months

Having fallen behind, it will be difficult—but not impossible—for the United States to catch up. To an extent, the near-term future is set because COVID-19 is a slow and long illness. People who were infected several days ago will only start showing symptoms now, even if they isolated themselves in the meantime. Some of those people will enter intensive-care units in early April. As of last weekend, the nation had 17,000 confirmed cases, but the actual number was probably somewhere between 60,000 and 245,000. Numbers are now starting to rise exponentially: As of Wednesday morning, the official case count was 54,000, and the actual case count is unknown. Health-care workers are already seeing worrying signs: dwindling equipment, growing numbers of patients, and doctors and nurses who are themselves becoming infected.


...article continues here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...us-end/608719/

[cyrille]

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

Being 'home' to the world's most powerful moron will surely be a major factor.

COVID-19 is a slow and long illness. People who were infected several days ago will only start showing symptoms now, even if they isolated themselves in the meantime.

Showing symptoms 'only' 'after several days' hardly makes COVID-19 'a slow and long illnesss'.

[nidhogg]

America has massive resources that it could bring to bear on this - but with a moron in the White House, it is not going to happen in an effective way. I think America will pay a huge price for electing Trump.

[tomcat]

America has massive resources that it could bring to bear on this - but with a moron in the White House, it is not going to happen in an effective way. I think America will pay a huge price for electing Trump.

...price already paid...balloon payment coming up. Evangelicals may begin to wonder where Jesus is now that they need him...

[lom]

Evangelicals may begin to wonder where Jesus is now that they need him

He'll arrive emerged from his tomb on Easter Sunday, just in time to see Trump reopen U.S

[Latindancer]

Less than a month after taking steps to permanently ban the trade and consumption of live wild animals for food, the Chinese government has recommended using Tan Re Qing, an injection containing bear bile, to treat severe and critical COVID-19 cases.

China promotes bear bile as coronavirus treatment, alarming wildlife advocates

[Stumpy]

I got a bit of a laugh when they announced a week or so back, if you are a US citizen you better hurry back before you can't. I thought to myself. Why in the hell would I want to hurry back to sit in isolation and listen to that monkey in office babble every day about how "His administration" has it all under control.

I wonder how all the Trump voters feel now about MAGA....

Maybe its time to fire up the reruns of "The Apprentice"

[tomcat]

I wonder how all the Trump voters feel now about MAGA....

...just take a look at Fox "News"...that's where their opinions come from...

[harrybarracuda]

Less than a month after taking steps to permanently ban the trade and consumption of live wild animals for food, the Chinese government has recommended using Tan Re Qing, an injection containing bear bile, to treat severe and critical COVID-19 cases.

China promotes bear bile as coronavirus treatment, alarming wildlife advocates

Fucking morons aren't they.

[Stumpy]

...just take a look at Fox "News"...that's where their opinions come from...

I stopped following US news years ago. Was mind numbing and a waste of time to read. I only need to look out my window for a weather update and then go about my day, the rest is noise

I do have friends however that enjoy sending me clips from various media sources. I find it more like stand up comedy versus actual news.

[aging one]

I wonder how all the Trump voters feel now about MAGA....

Maybe its time to fire up the reruns of "The Apprentice"

Sadly he now has his highest approval ratings in the last year. Its a sad state of affairs in the old US of A.

[PAG]

Just back from Phuket Immigration, having done my Marriage Extension. Very large numbers of tourists looking to extend their visas, with Immigration having erected marquees and provided chairs in the grounds of the building. Looked like an horrendous process, and not many smiling faces for sure.

[Stumpy]

Sadly he now has his highest approval ratings in the last year. Its a sad state of affairs in the old US of A.

OUCH. To bad the Virus doesn't single out stupid people...

I call my parents every few days to check on them and man they start off on a Trump rants. I have to reel them in.

[Seekingasylum]

OUCH. To bad the Virus doesn't single out stupid people...

I call my parents every few days to check on them and man they start off on a Trump rants. I have to reel them in.

Indeed, stupidity is the driver in most Trump related matters, as indeed it is The Stupid in the UK who are responsible for the Brexit madness and a government led by a Clown.

But the increase in Trump's popularity over the COVID disaster owes more to a rather more repellent feature of the human condition, the one that rates self interest over the common good.

Trump knows as well as the next expert that out of the millions who may conrtact the disease, the vast majority will have no more than a dose of the 'flu and any deaths will be among the old and the vulnerable. In the scheme of things their deaths are a small price to pay for preserving the middle class dream that America means good business returns and it is of course th middle classses who stand to lose the most if the economy is paralysed in an attempt to save the lives of the vulnerable.

Crude, cruel, callous and truly selfish but that is the Republican demographic and Trump for you.

That's why his approval ratings are up, he's gonna keep them rich(er), let the tiny minority die.

[tomcat]

Crude, cruel, callous

...always avoid alliteration...

[harrybarracuda]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand reported 111 new coronavirus infections, taking its tally to 1,045, the government said on Twitter on Thursday.
A state of emergency took effect. Authorities in Thailand, which has suffered four deaths in the pandemic, set up checkpoints on major roads linking provinces so as to increase screening in a bid to limit spread of the virus.
Entry by non-resident foreigners has also been banned.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-thailand-cases/thailand-reports-111-new-coronavirus-infections-for-total-of-1045-idUSKBN21D0EF

[Seekingasylum]

...always avoid alliteration...

Why? It's a fine literary technique and one deployed to great effect not least as a vehicle for rhythmic euphony as so vividly illustrated by, say, Gerard Manley Hopkins.

[HermantheGerman]

Sadly he now has his highest approval ratings in the last year. Its a sad state of affairs in the old US of A.

A President (and many of its citizens) which is in constant denial of science is a doomed country.

[harrybarracuda]

An interesting picture.

[HermantheGerman]

Puts the little shits who were spitting at police to shame.

CORONAVIRUS: Thousands volunteer to help NHS with vulnerable

Some 250,000 people have signed up in a single day to volunteer with the NHS after a recruitment drive to help the vulnerable amid the coronavirus crisis.


The helpers are needed for delivering food and medicines, driving patients to appointments and phoning the isolated.


The scheme is one of a number aimed at relieving pressure on the NHS.


About 11,000 former medics have also agreed to return to the health service and more than 24,000 final year student nurses and medics will join them.


Stephen Powis, NHS England medical director, said there had been "outbreaks of altruism" and he was "bowled over" by the medics returning to the front line and the response from volunteers.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52029877

The phrase of J.F.K.:

“....ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country ."

is going to make the difference.


Our politicians, WHO, EU, U.N. etc. have failed us dearly !

It's up to us to make the difference.

[tomcat]

...imo, no loss to the nation here...dump the masks and celebrate with your buddies at the nearest upmarket bar...

In coronavirus pandemic, Trump allies say they're ready to die for the economy

Christopher WilsonSenior Writer
Yahoo NewsMarch 25, 2020, 10:54 PM GMT+7

Conservatives weigh coronavirus deaths versus the economy



Conservative supporters of President Trump are increasingly volunteering to risk death — and implicitly the deaths of elderly and at-risk Americans — from the coronavirus if it will help the economy.

The push for Americans to get back to work in the face of an unprecedented economic downturn began last week but accelerated on Sunday evening, after the president began pushing the message that “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.” On Tuesday, Trump said he “would love to have the country opened up by Easter,” which falls on April 12. Public health experts say it is impossible to predict now when it will be safe to end social distancing measures but are virtually unanimous in believing they will be needed beyond then.

On Monday evening, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick explained how the trade-off between saving lives and spurring the economy worked in his mind.

“I just think there are lots of grandparents out there in this country like me … that what we all care about and what we all love more than anything are those children,” said Patrick, who turns 70 next week, on Tucker Carlson’s primetime Fox News show. “My message is that: Let’s get back to work. Let’s get back to living. Let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves, but don’t sacrifice the country. Don’t do that. Don’t ruin this great American dream.”

He then said he would be willing to risk his life to keep the economy going.
“No one reached out to me and said, ‘As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” said Patrick. “And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in.”

Fox News commentator Brit Hume supported Patrick on Carlson’s show the following night.
“The utter collapse of the country’s economy — which many think will happen if this goes on much longer — is an intolerable result,” the 76-year-old Hume said. “[Patrick] is saying, for his own part, that he would be willing to take a risk of getting the disease if that’s what it took to allow the economy to move forward. He said that because he is late in life, that he would be perhaps more willing than he might have been at a younger age, which seems to me to be an entirely reasonable viewpoint.”

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Brit Hume and Glenn Beck. (Loren Elliott/Getty Images, Fox News, Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)On the Tuesday airing of his program on BlazeTV, right-wing commentator Glenn Beck said that at 56 he is in the “danger zone” for the virus and would also make the sacrifice.
“I would rather have my children stay home and all of us who are over 50 go in and keep this economy going and working,” Beck said. “Even if we all get sick, I would rather die than kill the country. Because it’s not the economy that’s dying, it’s the country.”

A corollary argument is that the loss of jobs and incomes from prolonged social isolation would eventually lead to more deaths — from poverty and psychological distress — than might result from COVID-19.
In the video, Beck is alone in a room, socially distant from anyone who could give him the virus and not apparently facing the same risks as people without TV shows, such as health care professionals and grocery store workers.

Sacrificing the elderly for the good of the economy runs counter to Beck’s position a decade ago, when he rose to prominence during President Barack Obama’s tenure by railing against so-called death panels that he said would be created under the Affordable Care Act to ration health care. “We care about the elderly,” said Beck in 2009, adding, “We value life in this country, and when you start devaluing life, then you’re in trouble.”

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo took issue with the ethical choices implied by Trump’s priorities, saying, “My mother is not expendable and your mother is not expendable and our brothers and sisters are not expendable, and we’re not going to accept a premise that human life is disposable, and we’re not going to put a dollar figure on human life.”

The policy dilemma replicates on a national scale a well-known exercise in ethics known as the “trolley problem,” which asks whether it is justified to kill another person to avoid a larger number of deaths. It posits a situation in which a runaway vehicle is heading toward a large number of people — unless someone throws a switch that will divert it onto a different track, where only one person would be endangered.

This one's a real head-scratcher.


As a matter of public health, experts point out that social distancing rules are in place to protect the entire population, not just the elderly. People 60 and older are at increased risk of mortality from the coronavirus, but so are younger people with other health problems, and people as young as teenagers have contracted the illness.

In economic terms, analyses such as those by Beck and Hume don’t take into account the second-order economic effects of a pandemic that if unchecked could be fatal to as many as 2 million Americans, both directly and indirectly, by overwhelming the hospital system. Whether that would ultimately be better or worse for business than the short-term partial lockdown the economy is now in is, of course, unknowable.

It is also not a binary choice between a massive economic downturn and mass death. The U.S. could follow the lead of other nations, guaranteeing wages during the period of social isolation while strengthening social programs to help working-class Americans get by. Such a program would likely be anathema to economic conservatives, however.
_____

[Norton]

The US Senate has passed a $2 trillion (£1.7tn) coronavirus disaster aid bill that is the largest economic stimulus in US history.


The vote was delayed by a last-minute row between Republican and Democratic senators over unemployment benefits.


The plan includes direct payments of $1,200 to most American adults and aid to help small businesses pay workers.


US coronavirus deaths are around the 1,000 mark and there have been nearly 70,000 confirmed infections.

More.

Coronavirus: US Senate passes $2tn disaster aid bill - BBC News

A drop in the bucket. Just a down payment.

[Klondyke]

Merkel is healthy and in constant contact with cabinet: spokesman


FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a media statement on the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, March 22, 2020. Michel Kappeler/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo


BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel is well, in close contact with her cabinet and holding international talks from home, where she is self-quarantining after coming into contact with an infected doctor, a government spokesman said on Wednesday.

“The chancellor is well,” Steffen Seibert told a news conference. “She is doing her work, as I said previously, from home, she is in constant close contact with all members of the cabinet and her staff and she is also conducting international discussions from home.”

He reiterated that Merkel would undergo a series of tests, adding: “If there are developments we will tell you.”

Merkel’s initial test for coronavirus came back negative, her spokesman said on Monday.

Merkel is healthy and in constant contact with cabinet: spokesman - Reuters

[OhOh]

World can take a leaf out of China's crisis book

"I request you to remain wherever you are …," Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said while announcing a nationwide 21-day lockdown in a televised address on Tuesday night.

The same day, the United Kingdom announced London's exhibition center is to be turned into an emergency coronavirus hospital, making many equate it with the temporary hospitals China built in Wuhan, Hubei province.

Whether they admit it or not, one country after another is taking a leaf out of China's book in its fight against the novel coronavirus.

Certain Western media outlets and politicians had earlier criticized China for locking down cities, calling the measures "undemocratic" or a "violation of rights". It must be amply clear now that a lockdown during an epidemic is never a "violation of rights". It is better to save lives than waste time debating what suits Western "democracy".

There is no need to compare one system with another. During an epidemic, a good government should be protecting its people instead of wasting time blaming others or propagating its own ideological bias. Only a pragmatic, cooperative approach can help us defeat this common threat.

Hubei province, excluding Wuhan, has already announced an end to its lockdown. The epidemic is coming to an end in China but its spread in other parts of the world is accelerating. China is willing to lend a helping hand and share its experience in fighting the epidemic. It is hoped the epidemic can be controlled the world over soon.

World can take a leaf out of China's crisis book - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn