The assumption in that analysis is that the red shirts are a force in itself to be reckoned with and comprises a section of society which is both coherent and has an agenda. All fine and dandy if it were true, but it is nothing of the sort. Thaksin created it, funded it and nurtured it but just as his last gambit has come to naught so will the so-called red shirt movement.
Nomura seem to be no better than the Siam Crystal Ball Club.