Thread: Coup 2014 !!!! : Military 'takes control' in Thailand

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

Originally Posted by nidhogg

I think you really under estimate the staggering amount of corruption that was going on under the last government.

I've never looked into the rice scheme, just presumed it was an average idea, not well thought through and badly (and corruptly) administered at every level.

I certainly agree that the last government was corrupt, but no more than any of the dem governments, Banharn's governments have been, for example. Hence why the patronage system needs totally revising, and not in the way the army intend...

Sorry Boo, but you really should go an look up the rice scam, sorry, scheme.

The government was trying to get a loan of over 2 TRILLION baht, so they could cover it over. best estimates say the scheme has cost over 800 BILLION baht to the country.

On top of everything, they have probably done enough damage to the rice farming industry to cripple it for a few years. Firstly there is (supposedly, cause I recon it will have been mostly nicked*) a huge stockpile of rice which nobody wants because it is too expensive (thats what happens when you pay over the odds), and secondly a LOT of farmers live on the brink. They borrow money to buy the seed and fertilizer to plant. When the sell the crop, they pay off the loans and interest, and borrow more money to pay for the next crop. It all worked (handwavingly). Last cycle they borrowed to plant, sold to the government -and did not get the money. Interest kept piling on - some farmers killed themselves as a result of the debt.

The government f*cked their main supporters in furtherance to their gutting of the country. Go read up. It may offer you some insights into why the army took over.

Oh, and you might want to look up as to what happened to the huge budgets assigned for water management after the last big floods. Thats all gone as well.

You really do need to stop thinking that the last mob are as big a set of thieves as the last losts. Its like comparing a kid swiping a penny candy to armed bank robbery.





*Ok, never mind the off the top skimming on the big budgets, here is how the next level skimming goes. Farmer sells crop to gov at 15K per tonne (which of course he does not get). Best grade rice. Storehouse says after two weeks that it is "spolied", sells to a middle man for 2K a tonne. Middle man sells it on market at 7K a tonne, undercutting everyone. Thats a 5K per tonne profit right there.

Everyboady makes. Except of course the farmer and the country.

The rice scheme does sound like a disaster.

That is no reason for a coup, however, that is a reason for an election. &, if need be, for prosecutions.

Originally Posted by baldrick

I think the majority will be heading home to plant rice - only the under employed will have the time to parade for the media and the attention will soon dwindle which will dissuade the attention seekers - no body will be looking at their facebook page or twitter feed

There are many types of protesters against this coup. The lot in Bkk today are not rice farmers... The academics arrested in CM are not rice farmers. The journalists called in for detention/questioning are not rice farmers.

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

for an election.

it was interesting to see the graphic before which showed the constituencies which were not PT or dem

hopefully some will seize the opportunity

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

The academics arrested in CM are not rice farmers. The journalists called in for detention/questioning are not rice farmers.

they hardly made up the majority though

Originally Posted by nidhogg

Originally Posted by thegent

I should imagine Prayuth will rapidly understand the nature of his self imposed task when he is told that his command to pay the farmers what they are owed is not possible. The wheels of that scam well and truly fell off when the markets declined to buy into the debt. The losses are immense and without state borrowings to fund them there is nothing in the current budget to pay the farmers.

Think I read elsewhere that the funds have already been arranged.

OK , had a shufti, found this, you can probably google the source:

The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) is preparing a Bt55-billion budget from its reserves and the Farmers Assistance Fund to pay farmers owed under the rice-pledging scheme, starting tomorrow.


Yingluck was politically and legally stalled on trying to borrow the funds from Thai banks. Dictator has less problems.

I know of no government department funded bank in a capitalist society in the entire world which holds ' reserves ' to the extent of that amount. It will have to borrowed against the markets at whatever rate they can get. The sum mentioned is probably not even half the losses incurred. Either way, it'll be funded by the tax payer which will translate to more debt. There are no winners except those who benefited from the scam.

The return to world prices, as mooted, is inevitable but the debt burden of subsistence farmers can only grow.

Supply and demand in the market has to be controlled but not through intervention by stockpiling when demand is weaker. That model is inefficient and distorts prices. The current mechanism adopted by developed societies wishing to bring stability to the supply is subsidy not to grow when forecasted demand is weaker. That is difficult when the supply is so fragmented as it is with Thailand with its thousands of rice farmers. In their case they need middlemen to manage the market supply and it's organization. Essentially, it is inevitable the sharecroppers and small holdings will be absorbed into large agri/industrial combines who will dispense with middlemen and the industry can progress from its current feudal base. The trajectory is inevitable and as banks begin to foreclose on debts the process will accelerate. Thailand is no more immune from the shift to urbanization than any other country was in the industrial revolution.

It's the future.

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

The majority

was lusting after the high prices promised for any old rice - of which they rarely recieved more that 11k per tonne

and now they are struggling to pay the bills because of economic guru takky's stupidity

they may yet see things in a different light

Originally Posted by thegent

Either way, it'll be funded by the tax payer

which was what fueled the numbers for sutep the scumbag

Originally Posted by baldrick

which was what fueled the numbers for sutep the scumbag

Are you sure? It's hard to say, but they mostly looked like Southerners who were part of his patronage network. But, like a lot of these protests, the people are mixed and come for different reasons.

I wonder if suthep is still in detention or has been let out? AO seems to think he's still in detention, maybe so. & abhisit, why was he detained in the first place, what part has he in negotiations? He does seem to be liked my prayuth...

Originally Posted by Davis Knowlton

This is a Thai internal event...it's not the first time, nor do I believe it will be the last.

As a foreigner, you have no voice. Let the Thai sort it out. You may not agree with the result, but it's their country, not yours.

Exactly what I have been saying all along .

Farang should simply stay well away from it. None of their business.

So many speculate but that's easy to do. Be much more interesting if the shit hits the fan and then they can post about something that has actually happened.

No, too easy that innit.

Welcome back to the thread, tewwy - you don't see any irony in your comments at all, do you?

Originally Posted by terry57

None of their business.

it is up to you if you wish to abide by the archaic boundries defined by the warlords of the past

but the internet is now here and long may it continue - it is not an easily controlled propaganda channel -

fiefdoms are a thing of the past

Originally Posted by hillbilly

As the head of the family how should I reply when my wife or 50/50 daughter asks me what do I think? They want to know why I sit by and do nothing.

A tad emotional input there HB.

What do they expect you to Do ?? You can do nothing as its not your problem is it.

You may live here but you will always be " The Farang "

Guess it's all in the armies hands right now, if they do the right thing, play fair, they may pull it off.
Not liking what I see here, village is a ghost town, women and kids only, border troops have pulled out, nearest police {2 man post} on the main road, deserted.
Went to town, Buntharik, yesterday, not one uniform, green or brown to be seen, normal road blocks, police and border troops, gone.
Am a farang, kept in the dark, but know this was commie country, still shooting in the 80s, weapons stashed in the mountains, Thai and Lao side.
Army is afraid to go after the illegal loggers, never mind guerrillas, things could get hairy.
Last coup, army was told keep out and they did, no trouble, this time who knows, fingers crossed, problems stay in that other place, BKK, another country, this is Issan/Lao. Maybe Thailand, but no one likes the south. Jim

Originally Posted by cyrille

Originally Posted by hillbilly

50/50 daughter

This further complicates the 'it's their country, leave them to it' principle, of course.

Things aren't as clear cut as that for people who, along with a Thai parent, are raising kids in Thailand.

The bottom line is that you know where you stand regards your rights in Thailand as a foreigner.

Whether you have ten kids or none you have very few rights, nothing has changed and most probably never will.

You entered Thailand, married and raised kids knowing this so accept it.

No good bitching about that fact now.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

village is a ghost town

they have likely pissed off to BKK to grab the free 250 baht to go home

Originally Posted by terry57

Originally Posted by hillbilly

As the head of the family how should I reply when my wife or 50/50 daughter asks me what do I think? They want to know why I sit by and do nothing.

A tad emotional input there HB.

What do they expect you to Do ?? You can do nothing as its not your problem is it.

You may live here but you will always be " The Farang "

I'm a farang and it's my home and it is my problem.
Things go bad, will send the wife and kids back to OZ, but I'll be staying, my home my farm, my kids future. Jim

Originally Posted by Yasojack

That is very true, We know nothing.

Yet a few posters think they know it all.

Its like the farang who joined in the protests , should of been deported.

Originally Posted by Albert Shagnastier

Wrong every time about what?

Is this just me clashing with your ideologies whatever they may be,or do you have some facts to back-up your bullshit?

I rest my case regards the fanatical element in the room.

Rub them up the wrong way regards their ideologies and they burst into tears.

Originally Posted by baldrick

Originally Posted by jamescollister

village is a ghost town

they have likely pissed off to BKK to grab the free 250 baht to go home

More likely gone illegal logging, no soldiers, no police or road blocks, open season at 10,000 a day. Jim

With all due respect to you Jim, it's your family's farm and not yours. Farming is not an occupation currently permitted to farang. As long as you can qualify for residence according to whatever tariff they choose to impose then you may stay. Given Thaksin's potent manipulation of nationalism and his dislike for the farang which led to a radical hike in that tariff I am fairly certain the precedent has not been lost on his successors when they next look to raise revenues. Captive market, you see and we all know how the Thai like to milk them.

I am under no illusions about governments and their attitudes to migration. Look at Britain and their disgraceful taxation on foreign spouses etc.

The trick is to ensure a plan B at all times.

Originally Posted by terry57

Originally Posted by Yasojack

That is very true, We know nothing.

Yet a few posters think they know it all.

Its like the farang who joined in the protests , should of been deported.

Oh you mean that superrich Indian guy who joined Suthep and the yellowshirts. Yingluck wanted to deport him but the yellow slime wouldn't let her government.

I know plenty of people, Thai people, that are relieved that at last something has been done. These are nearly all people that have been seriously affected by the ongoing by the ongoing protests.

Business has been fucking atrocious for many. My wife and I are hanging on by a thread and close to calling it a day where our business is concerned. We are friendly with most of our competitors and they too are struggling, with at least one having to close altogether. None are doing well, most are on the brink and none can continue indefinitely.

Our suppliers are also struggling and some have let staff go. We use free-lance technicians and usually we would have to book in a job days in advance as technicians will already have other jobs. They are now calling us to see if we have work for them.

What many people don't know is that the PDRC were directly forcing some companies to close by sending people to their offices. These were, of course, mainly Shinwatra companies. Sure, the Shinawatras are arse-holes and I have no sympathy for them but the staff were mostly just ordinary folk with families to feed and bills to pay. The closure of these companies also affected the customers and business associates of these companies. What were the police doing about this? Yep, you guessed it, they were doing absolutely fuckall.

I imagine that a fair few farmers will also be grateful to the military, assuming they will be paid as promised.

How much longer would this continue? How many more final 'victory days' would Suthep announce before actually calling it a day. How many more business would go to the wall before something is done? For how much longer would many of the farmers remain practically destitute because their government had not paid them THEIR money as promised.

It's very easy for the keyboard warriors to say "Coups are bad, Mmmmkay" but that is a very narrow minded and somewhat ignorant view. Of course coups are never a good option but to many it is the ONLY option. What else are we supposed to do, wait for the democratic process to work it out? Yeah, because that was really working wasn't it?

Either way, what's done is done. We just need to hope they are genuine and do not turn out to be despots.

Why didn't the military step in and support Yingluck before? Why? Because the yellows are the violent scum of Thailand, not the reds. The military is yellow. Now the arseholes want to say its the reds who are violent. BS. They yellows always were. The military is okay with crushing the poor but not the BKKers. I'll are with you about the peace but the military should be jailing yellows and Yingluck should be free. It's not so simple as you say that people who are against the coups don't get it. Enjoy the 'peace'. I hope it lasts but don't complain if it doesn't. Thais shouldn't die in the streets for your happiness.And they shouldn't lose their freedom and rights for your happiness either.