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  1. #51
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    Not all revolutions are revolutions of the masses. Currently Thailand is experiencing revolution from an influential urban minority, the self styled old establishment. They rather don't like change, and any heretical suggestion that the sun does not revolve around Bangkok.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Not all revolutions are revolutions of the masses. .
    A considerable number are not

    The Khmer Rouge was originated by a bunch of Cambodian intellectuals studying in Paris. The least intellectual of them, Pol Pot, was an electrical engineer who failed his exams and had to go home. As a child he used to hang out at the Royal palace in Phnom Penh.

    Lenin, Ho Chi Minh - all cut their teeth in the west. Stroppy middle class boys organise revolutions, not proletarians.

  3. #53
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    I wonder would China have another Tiananmen Square...

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ghost Of The Moog
    Stroppy middle class boys organise revolutions
    Very true. No shortage of them in Thailand either.

  5. #55
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    God, just how tedious is the inclination of the farang observer to interpret Thai politics through the prism of their own half baked understanding of history.

    Thai society, as it is and not how some dopey westerner might see it, simply cannot precipitate either a revolution or, indeed, any material change to the bogus democratic system that prevails now.

    Current social stratification is balanced with each section deriving a benefit from the status quo. There is no populist doctrine to inspire an aspiration likely to be met through radical change, there is no significant majority that either manifests a need that can only be satisfied by violent populist action or which is capable of unifying under a coherent and organised banner and, perhaps most importantly, there is no stomach or demand for change that would challenge the notion the current hierarchy is inherently necessary.

    Sprinkle a dash of feckless indolence and a liberal dose of Buddhist mumbo jumbo into the mix and hey presto, welcome to the absurdity that is Thailand.

    Frankly, Switzerland has more chance of fomenting an organised rebellion than the Thai.

    Why you think too mut, na?

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Ghost Of The Moog View Post
    And now we have the rather preposterous spectacle of white expats, who don't even have the right to vote (and don't seem to see that flagrant omission as a problem), apparently sulking because a court judgment has gone against their chosen 'team'.
    Personally it makes no difference to me who governs this country, but what I would like to see is a legal system that works.

    What events of recent months has done for me is to ensure I NEVER buy property here.

    Christ, you spend $ 200,000 on a condo because the law says you own it and some unelected crook seizes control of the legal system and changes the law to suit his own agenda.
    I see fish. They are everywhere. They don't know they are fish.

  7. #57
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    There may not be any real revolution but there certainly is a very good chance of real political violence not the bullshit we've seen lately. Over the past four months how many explosives and shootings have failed to do damage. Of course, they were mostly done to encourage fear but even then what a waste of explosives for the menial effects they got. I would guess in the future it could get dangerous for those involved in politics like it gets in most third world nations. So far Thailand's hitmen can't hit anything and have very limp-wristed grenade-throwing skills. To say that change isn't coming is ridiculous, we are already in a new place. Where is goes from here is still up in the air. As the deaths increase, the desire for revenge should increase as well. And today's Thais are the ignorant farmers of the past who were happy just to sit on their land. They're better educated and feel they do have a stake in what happens and on top of that they feel the stress that comes with this modern world. They are in debt and need more and more money to live even if they are up in the middle of Esarn.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sabang
    Huge majority support. Even Bangkok, if all it's residents were actually allowed to vote there, is red. The average political affiliation of the thai citizen now is 'anything but Democrat'. really, they might as well disband.
    here is an idea, why aren't the Reds running their own independent political campaign during the election ? why do they have to attach themselves to PT ? doesn't make any sense, unless they are pawns of someone special
    Good that you figured it out.

  9. #59
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    Would it be correct to say that the reds can control much of the North of the country, but they have no chance in an armed struggle to take BK.

    Since the finances and Banks are based in BK, how would any Northern Rebelion be able to maintain any sort of order and allow people to exist in an sort of normalcy?

    Unless all the rallies and rhetoric are only that, I wonder how many are willing to sacrifice their prosperity, freedom and lives for the cause of democracy? My concern would be for a slow bleeding to ensue, much like Northern Ireland. Decades of violence with no clear winner and many many losers.

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    if they come with knifes at a gun fight, I don't think they will stand a chance
    Exactly why "civil war" is not in the cards. The 250,000 strong Army owns all the significant fire power. Contrary to published mission of Army, they are in fact in the business of maintaining internal security. There simply is not another organization or group of "revolutionaries" who can muster the fire power to pull off a successful revolution. Have no illusion about the where loyalties within the Army lay. There are four Army regions. The commanders of each are chosen primarily based on their unwavering loyalty to the CinC of the Army who in turn is appointed based on his loyalty to the Head and Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Armed Forces. If some sort of revolutionary uprising comes from within the Army will be by a poorly equipped low ranking officer and dealt with strong force. Been a couple of these before with predictable result. All the revolutionary's killed.

    Well what about the Police? No secret the Police and Army have mutual distrust so maybe the Police will rebel. Police forces in Thailand are intentionally deprived of fire power to preclude a rebellion. Police officers are not issued weapons. They must purchase their own from what can be bought on the open market. All small arms. Small arms pitted against Army tanks, attack helicopters, APCs manned by trained personnel. A blood bath and quick end to the revolution.

    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    don't expect a "people uprising", the circumstances for it are not there
    Agree. In spite of the revolutionary rhetoric of a few "reds" no way they can muster the numbers needed to have a grassroots uprising. The fervor and passion of your average "up country" citizen is not there. Even if there was, where will the arms come from? Would have to be supplied by a nation who have an interest in the overthrow of the Thai status quo. I can't think of any nation who has the desire and the capability to do so.

    There will be sporadic acts of insurrection in a few isolated areas. The Army will deal with these brutally. Lot's of blood shed resulting in further damage to the economy and reputation of Thailand. None of which is considered by the powers behind the two camps involved. In pursuit of power and money both sides seem willing to destroy the nation.

    An act of sheer folly if there ever was one!
    Last edited by Norton; 22-03-2014 at 08:41 AM.

  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailing into trouble View Post
    Would it be correct to say that the reds can control much of the North of the country, but they have no chance in an armed struggle to take BK.

    Since the finances and Banks are based in BK, how would any Northern Rebelion be able to maintain any sort of order and allow people to exist in an sort of normalcy?

    Unless all the rallies and rhetoric are only that, I wonder how many are willing to sacrifice their prosperity, freedom and lives for the cause of democracy? My concern would be for a slow bleeding to ensue, much like Northern Ireland. Decades of violence with no clear winner and many many losers.
    They wouldn't need to take Bkk, which amounts to a total sum of nothing without the country.

    I wonder if Bkk could feed its people for an entire week, without the rurals.

  12. #62
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    Exactly why "civil war" is not in the cards. The 250,000 strong Army owns all the significant fire power. Contrary to published mission of Army, they are in fact in the business of maintaining internal security. There simply is not another organization or group of "revolutionaries" who can muster the fire power to pull off a successful revolution. Have no illusion about the where loyalties within the Army lay. There are four Army regions. The commanders of each are chosen primarily based on their unwavering loyalty to the CinC of the Army who in turn is appointed based on his loyalty to the Head and Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Armed Forces. If some sort of revolutionary uprising comes from within the Army will be by a poorly equipped low ranking officer and dealt with strong force. Been a couple of these before with predictable result. All the revolutionary's killed. Well what about the Police? No secret the Police and Army have mutual distrust so maybe the Police will rebel. Police forces in Thailand are intentionally deprived of fire power to preclude a rebellion. Police officers are not issued weapons. They must purchase their own from what can be bought on the open market. All small arms. Small arms pitted against Army tanks, attack helicopters, APCs manned by trained personnel. A blood bath and quick end to the revolution.
    The Thai army may be large but any revolutionary force is hardly going to be fighting rolling tank battles on the plains outside Ayutthaya and in an urban environment, almost everything will work against them - as the Americans seem to discover every few years, a gang of men armed with nothing more than determination, flip-flops and a couple of decades-old AK47s are quite capable of defeating the most technologically advanced army in the world. And I'm pretty confident that the vast majority of the Thai army, if it started sustaining anything approaching significant casualty levels, would fold in a civil war; press-ganged farmers are probably going to be unwilling to lay down their lives and/or shoot their neighbours in defence of the repressive, authoritarian regime which is waiting in the wings. That said, there'll be no balls-to-the-wall civil war but there's certainly potential for lower level conflict to get going and then to drag on interminably and perhaps all that might take is for the hidden hands to make good on their desires.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Not all revolutions are revolutions of the masses. Currently Thailand is experiencing revolution from an influential urban minority, the self styled old establishment. They rather don't like change, and any heretical suggestion that the sun does not revolve around Bangkok.
    Hit the nail on the head Sabang.

  14. #64
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    You farangs better just realize there is no justice in Thailand and never will be. If you have a load of cash you will never do time. If it is accidentally shooting your secretary with a machine gun in a somtum restaurant, you can excuse yourself cause parliament is waiting for you to be there for the big vote. Or if daddy brews an energy drink that makes enough dosh to buy you out of anything. - even killing someone. If you are speeding and you rear end a van full of people on the elevated tollway, and you have enough money, you get punished by being sent abroad to attend college.

    It does not deserve a forum where high minded ideas of democracy and justice are discussed. It only deserves forums like bangkokroughguide.com and 3holersonsoicowboydiscusionboard.com. It ain't a real country fellas. Thailand is a real life Never Neverland good for cheap everything and that is it.

  15. #65
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    Thailand always was the wild west...and it seems it will remain so. It doesn't serve the interests of those who benifit from it being so to change the rules.

  16. #66
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    Strange that all the superior firepower of USofA in Vietnam did sweet fckall to determine the outcome of that "conflict"...

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by chitown View Post
    You farangs better just realize there is no justice in Thailand and never will be. If you have a load of cash you will never do time. If it is accidentally shooting your secretary with a machine gun in a somtum restaurant, you can excuse yourself cause parliament is waiting for you to be there for the big vote. Or if daddy brews an energy drink that makes enough dosh to buy you out of anything. - even killing someone. If you are speeding and you rear end a van full of people on the elevated tollway, and you have enough money, you get punished by being sent abroad to attend college.

    It does not deserve a forum where high minded ideas of democracy and justice are discussed. It only deserves forums like bangkokroughguide.com and 3holersonsoicowboydiscusionboard.com. It ain't a real country fellas. Thailand is a real life Never Neverland good for cheap everything and that is it.
    The never neverland surely exist behind a gated community and rose-tinted glasses. The perfect little world....

  18. #68
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    It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.

  19. #69
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    fools, that's exactly what they are

    a country of gullible fools, food for tyrants and ambitious billionaires who want to run a country like a business

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    fools, that's exactly what they are

    a country of gullible fools, food for tyrants and ambitious billionaires who want to run a country like a business
    Thank God I do not have to live in a country like that!

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by wasabi
    a country of gullible fools, food for tyrants and ambitious billionaires who want to run a country like a business
    home of the brave, land of the free.

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Not all revolutions are revolutions of the masses. Currently Thailand is experiencing revolution from an influential urban minority, the self styled old establishment. They rather don't like change, and any heretical suggestion that the sun does not revolve around Bangkok.
    I agree....Sabang makes a good point....The big recent change factor in Thai politics, is education, with an increasingly more educated society, and with a young population with Western aspirations. Regional Thai's have experienced an increasing standard of living, and with that greater expectations,(for mobile phones, appliances,cars,dining,employment etc) and they now understand they can vote for change and achieve it!
    The unfortunate thing, is that the money end of town is successfully derailing democracy, where it does not fit their plan to maintain control of particularly wages, and thereby maintain financial inequality, with the wealthy in total control.
    In many Western countries, similar financial disparity is present, where the rich are getting richer and the poor becoming worse off.... the thinking of the poor end of society, is controlled psychologically by the media. In these countries the media is owned and controlled by the wealthy, predominantly extremely wealthy Jews, who use their media, particularly television and print media, to convince the masses how good their bad government is, and to sensor opponents, and proponents of change! Australia is a particular case of this, where at the last federal election, many clear thinking people I discussed politics with, did not find either party acceptable, as both were controlled at the top financially, and financed by the wealthy for favor!......As in present Thailand, in Australia there is also growing discontent with the present political system, but no obvious alternative or easy path for changing to a different system, such as independent politicians and referendums on important matters. I am not in favor of socialism or communism, but there must be effective controls in society to control the financial slope!
    "Looking for a cold beer to put out the chilli!"

  23. #73
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    Taksin had big plans for Thailand before his departure including a massive oil deal with Cambodia, the canal across the Thailand eastern peninsula, casinos and other big money deals.

    Purely and simply he cannot walk away from those deals which of course will benefit Thais but also himself potentially making him the richest person on the planet.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    There will be sporadic acts of insurrection in a few isolated areas. The Army will deal with these brutally.
    Everything you wrote is right as far as I am concerned, especially this little extract above. Unfortunately, this is bound to happen though but because it will not be the army topping the muslims in the south, but good democratically motivated "buddhist" Thais, the rest of the world might indeed jump on this. I recall a press article a few months ago where a certain influential country advised the Thai Army that a coup would not be ignored, and they should stay out of it and let democracy run. Imagine what would happen when the "Thai Army killing their own people" headlines start flying around the world?


    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly
    fools, that's exactly what they are

    a country of gullible fools, food for tyrants and ambitious billionaires who want to run a country like a business
    For what ever reason, whether it be their education system, religion, matriarchal society, I firmly believe that the very simplistic Maslow's Hierarchy of needs sums up most of Thailand's population - a in the majority, not the elite or lucky few who are getting in debt so that they can pretend to be middle class. They are lodged rock solid to the "Biological and Physiological needs - air, food, drink, shelter, warmth, sex, sleep" level. Being kept there by the people you mention, BT, is part of the trick being used against these people. I don't think they are stupid, but they just don't instinctively question things, and this comes mostly from the education system perhaps.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrB0b View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Ghost Of The Moog
    a court judgment has gone against their chosen 'team'.
    That's such a simplistic understanding of what's actually happened that it's laughable.
    No,it's not.
    We don't have any rights here, no matter how much taxes we pay.

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