Thread: Political crisis in Thailand : You go your way, I’ll go mine

Political crisis in Thailand

You go your way, I’ll go mine
Jan 25th 2014

Thailand’s very unity is now under threat



STOUT and loquacious, Khamsi Audomsi runs a roasted-banana stall in the covered market of San Kamphaeng, a small town just outside Chiang Mai, the main city of northern Thailand. In front of where she fries up, a greasy wall is festooned with posters and calendars devoted solely to the Shinawatra clan: Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister deposed in a coup in 2006 and now in self-imposed exile, and Yingluck Shinawatra, the current prime minister, who takes orders from her older brother in Dubai.

Thanks to Mr Thaksin’s policies, Ms Khamsi says, her family’s prospects were transformed. A student-loan scheme allowed both her son and daughter to go to university, a family first. Now their relatively well-paid jobs help to pay for her health care. And for this, Ms Khamsi repays Mr Thaksin and his sister with her undying loyalty. She was a founder of the “red shirts”, Mr Thaksin’s grassroots political movement.



It is the sort of story you hear time and again in northern and north-eastern Thailand: how Mr Thaksin’s social policies, dismissed as mere populism by his opponents, helped people to escape poverty. Chiang Mai and the 16 provinces around it are almost solid red-shirt territory; the 20 provinces of Thailand’s poor north-east, a region known as Isan, are even redder (see map). The flames of devotion burn brightest in San Kamphaeng, for this is where the Shinawatras come from and where they return to be buried.

Ms Khamsi and her fellow red shirts are looking forward to the general election on February 2nd. (Ms Yingluck called it in an attempt to break the political deadlock that has gripped the capital, Bangkok, since November.) They can renew their vows and demonstrate once again the strength of the red shirts and the supporters of the ruling Pheu Thai party. Parties run by Mr Thaksin have won every election since 2001, precisely by dominating the rural north and north-east.

For that very reason the anti-Thaksin forces are boycotting the election altogether. Led by a former MP, Suthep Thaugsuban, they have staged mass protests in Bangkok in hopes of ousting Ms Yingluck. Mr Suthep and the Democrat Party, the main opposition, argue that Mr Thaksin’s money has poisoned the electoral process and say they will only participate after the system has been cleaned up. Their disruptive tactics may yet cause the election to be postponed or even cancelled.

Mr Suthep launched his crusade three months ago, at the time of the government’s cack-handed attempt to force through a bill granting Mr Thaksin amnesty for convictions for corruption and abuse of power. In reality, Mr Suthep’s protests are just the latest round in an increasingly bitter struggle for the political soul of the country, between the northern red shirts and an ultraroyalist establishment that controls much of the capital and the southern provinces. The struggle is turning ugly again, and risks splitting the country in two. At least nine have died as men of violence creep on to the stage with sniper rifles and bombs. Each side blames the other for these shadowy provocateurs. On January 21st Ms Yingluck declared a state of emergency in Bangkok and its surrounding districts.

Although the red shirts will dutifully vote on February 2nd, they are mostly focused on how they might protect their government, and Ms Yingluck, from the coup that they are all expecting. A coup might be a military one, under the pretext of stopping violence escalating in Bangkok. Or it might be a judicial one, with the courts barring Pheu Thai politicians from taking office because of alleged offences against the constitution. Both have happened before, and the red shirts see both the army and the courts as tools of the Bangkok political establishment.

If Ms Yingluck, who was elected in a landslide in 2011, is forced out of Bangkok, she will be welcomed in Chiang Mai, where she will be encouraged to keep on governing as the legitimate rival to whoever takes over in the capital. That might trigger the split between north and south.

Indeed, many red shirts say Bangkok is already lost. Mr Suthep has nearly free rein there, closing down most government offices. The police have charged him with insurrection and seizing state property, but no attempt has been made to arrest him. The imposition of a state of emergency for 60 days may not make much difference.

Thus most red shirts in the north and north-east now contemplate—indeed they seem to be preparing for—a political separation from Bangkok and the south. Some can barely wait. In Chiang Mai a former classmate of Mr Thaksin’s says that in the event of a coup “the prime minister can come here and we will look after her. If…we have to fight, we will. We want our separate state and the majority of red shirts would welcome the division.” Be afraid for Thailand as the political system breaks down.

economist.com

a very poor article that explains nothing. 30 second news filler, and from the economist too.

Khamsi Audomsi runs a roasted-banana stall in the covered market of San Kamphaeng,
San Kamphaeng, for this is where the Shinawatras come from and where they return to be buried.
We want our separate state and the majority of red shirts would welcome the division.

let them eat bananas.

probably should of read more than 30 seconds worth Tax ......................

Originally Posted by economist.com

If Ms Yingluck, who was elected in a landslide in 2011, is forced out of Bangkok, she will be welcomed in Chiang Mai, where she will be encouraged to keep on governing as the legitimate rival to whoever takes over in the capital. That might trigger the split between north and south.

Indeed, many red shirts say Bangkok is already lost. Mr Suthep has nearly free rein there, closing down most government offices. The police have charged him with insurrection and seizing state property, but no attempt has been made to arrest him. The imposition of a state of emergency for 60 days may not make much difference.

Thus most red shirts in the north and north-east now contemplate—indeed they seem to be preparing for—a political separation from Bangkok and the south. Some can barely wait. In Chiang Mai a former classmate of Mr Thaksin’s says that in the event of a coup “the prime minister can come here and we will look after her. If…we have to fight, we will. We want our separate state and the majority of red shirts would welcome the division.”

Be afraid for Thailand as the political system breaks down.

the shinawatras would rather destroy the country with their selfish pride, before handing over the reigns to someone else in the pt party who is less divisive.

i wonder why that is?

thaksin and yingluck seem to be much like ferdinand and imelda.
they built up the philipines whilst systematically robbing it.

from where I sit Suthep is the one destroying the country .

Reports suggest that the armed forces are split as to what action to take. Again it would be catastrophic for the nation if individual leaders who commanded the loyalty of their solders picked sides.

Originally Posted by taxexile

a very poor article that explains nothing.

Of course not taxi (i mean, it's only The Economist innit- wonder what good old tony canteloupe has got to say). Problem is, this was part of the muttering I was hearing in the village recently. The way things are looking, I fear there is a chance the Thai government will disencamp to CM, and the rebellious southern provinces enjoy their very own suthocracy.

They couldn't just decamp the government. The could decamp the Cabinet but moving the whole governance structure would take years of careful planning.

Originally Posted by Sailing into trouble

Reports suggest that the armed forces are split as to what action to take. Again it would be catastrophic for the nation if individual leaders who commanded the loyalty of their solders picked sides.

I believe the military is split. They would not be if clear direction was communicated by the Commander in Chief. Pending a firm direction the military is sitting on the fence trying to remain "neutral" even though both sides would love them to jump to their side.

One side is 87% of the Thai population though- and they back elections, as mandated in Thailand's Constitution. It sure doesn't look good for Thailand, if the 13% are allowed to have their way.

^^

That is the crux of the matter , Suthep may have won today BUT Thailand has lost .

Reports from the village say that it is a very dark day for Thailand and the like of which have not been seen recently .

Originally Posted by Norton

The military knows, no matter who ends up forming the government the military will get budgets they propose.

Not guaranteed should the country split ...................

Originally Posted by Mid

Suthep may have won today BUT Thailand has lost

What has Suthep won other than disrupting a legitimate election?
This is but the first skirmish in a desperate conflict sure to be lost by Suthep's PDRC.

Originally Posted by Mid

the like of which have not been seen recently

Put in perspective, if 2006 is recent, the coup and what followed were far darker.

Originally Posted by Norton

Not guaranteed should the country split

Ain't going to happen Mid.

I'm interrupting to bring you breaking news.

Core protest leader shot dead

Published: 26 Jan 2014 at 15:14

Core protest leader shot dead | Bangkok Post: breakingnews

Originally Posted by misskit

I'm interrupting to bring you breaking news.

thanxs

Originally Posted by Norton

What has Suthep won other than disrupting a legitimate election?

exactly that which was todays objective .

forrests and trees mate .

Originally Posted by Norton

This is but the first skirmish in a desperate conflict sure to be lost by Suthep's PDRC.

Thailand is the loser

Originally Posted by Norton

Put in perspective, if 2006 is recent, the coup and what followed were far darker.

not from the persepctive I'm refering , maybe from yours and mine BUT ........

Originally Posted by Mid

be a large mistake to expect the reds to lay down

Originally Posted by misskit

Core protest leader shot dead

Not rolling over and predictable. Won't be the last.

Same guy?-

Is Greenpeace taking legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra

Posted on November 25, 2011 by gjbkk
It was reported in the Bangkok Post this morning that Suthin Tharathin supposedly representing Greenpeace in Thailand has filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, asking them to take legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra and the head of the Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) for failing to properly resolve the flood crisis.
Is Greenpeace taking legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra | gjbkk blog

If so, he's a veteran anti-Yingluck campaigner- which suggests a likely targeted hit. People seemingly only lightly injured around him too- pro's at work?
'dis no good.

Originally Posted by sabang

Same guy?-

Is Greenpeace taking legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra

Posted on November 25, 2011 by gjbkk
It was reported in the Bangkok Post this morning that Suthin Tharathin supposedly representing Greenpeace in Thailand has filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, asking them to take legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra and the head of the Flood Relief Operations Command (Froc) for failing to properly resolve the flood crisis.
Is Greenpeace taking legal action against Yingluck Shinawatra | gjbkk blog

If so, he's a veteran anti-Yingluck campaigner- which suggests a likely targeted hit. People seemingly only lightly injured around him too- pro's at work?
'dis no good.

Yes, same guy. He lied about being a Greenpeace representative, they'd never heard of him.

^
Interesting

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Bangkok Post : PM, Froc face more flood complaints

PM, Froc face more flood complaints

• Published: 25/11/2011 at 02:47 PM
• Online news:

The Greenpeace has filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission, asking it to take legal action against the prime minister and head of the Flood Operations Command (Froc) for failing to resolve flood crisis, reports said.

The complaint, submit by representative of Greenpeace Suthin Tharathin, accused Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Froc head Pol Gen Pracha Promnok of negligence and malfeasance in handling the wide spread flooding, causing severe damage to people, farmlands and manufacturers, the reports said.

An NACC commissioner said the NACC had accepted the petition for further action.

Earlier today, a political activist Suriyasai Katasila had asked NACC to investigate the government for alleged mismanagement of the flood crisis causing hardship, property damage and hundreds of deaths.

Bangkok Post : Clarification: Greenpeace not involved

• Published: 25/11/2011 at 08:07 PM
• Online news:

An incorrect report in Breaking News on Friday indicated that the Greenpeace group had filed a complaint with anti-corruption authorities over mismanagement.

This report was incorrect and the story has been withdrawn from the website. The Greenpeace group has not been involved in the flood management crisis.

We regret this error in our fast-breaking news section.

.....

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Norton

Not guaranteed should the country split

Ain't going to happen Mid.

More than likely not.
Those that even suggest such extremities towards the immediate future might reexamine the reality.