UTCC: Bombs' impact 'short term' | Bangkok Post: news

UTCC: Bombs' impact 'short term'


The bomb explosions in the Sukhumvit area on Tuesday will have only a short term impact on the tourism sector, no more than two months, according to the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Centre director Thanavath Phonvichai said on Thursday its pollsters had sought opinions from business operators, but did not provide details on how many were questioned and when.

Based on the survey, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand might well drop by about five to ten per cent, or 100,000 to 200,000 people, which would mean an estimated revenue loss of five to ten billion baht. This would trim gross domestic product growth by between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent, Mr Thanavath said.

He said the survey showed that the service industry would likely be directly hit by by the bomb explosions, but it it expected to recover quickly.

A total of 51.1 per cent of the respondents said the hotel business would be the hardest hit, followed by resort operators (20 per cent), and then restaurants, food shops and entertainment businesses.


Economic and Business Forecasting Centre chief Thanavath Phonvichai

Asked what sectors would suffer most from the explosions, 49.8 per cent of the surveyed business operators pointed to tourism, 15.6 per cent said foreign investment in Thailand, and 13.4 per cent said investment in the Thai stock market.

Asked what risk factors could derail the country’s economy and their own businesses, the respondents said political conflict, natural disasters and investor confidence.

The director maintained his centre's GDP growth projection for this year at between 4.5 per cent and 5.0 per cent.

On the government's flood prevention measures, Mr Thanavath said investors remained concerned but had no plans to relocate their production bases to other countries at this stage.

He said most investors were aware of the government's plan to tackle potential flooding in the country this year but only half of them believed that the government would manage the problem better than last year.

The academic said the government's plan was not clear and concrete and the information given to investors was just a big picture of the situation when in fact it should give more details to restore their confidence.

However, he said, Prime Minster Yingluck Shinawatra's visit to some of the flood-hit provinces showed the government's sincerity in tackling flood issues.

He said most investors agreed with the government's move to plant more trees and other plants to absorb rainfall, but believed that the implementation would be difficult in reality. Some also feared that this year's flood could be even worse than last year, he added.