NOAA – December 2022 was the 8th warmest December recorded.
NOAA – 2022 was the 6th warmest year recorded
NOAA
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Northern and central Greenland were warmer in the early 21st century compared to any period in at least the past 1,000 years, a new study found.
Why it matters: The new research offers the first conclusive evidence of human-induced long-term warming and increased meltwater runoff in the northern and central parts of Greenland, typically the coldest parts of the ice sheet.
- How much and how fast the ice sheet melts will help determine the fate of coastal residents worldwide, given its contribution to sea level rise.
The big picture: The study, published in the journal Nature, finds that the warming during 2000-2011 exceeded the peak from swings in temperatures during pre-industrial times “with virtual certainty," and is about 1.5°C warmer than it was during the twentieth century.
- The likelihood that such temperatures would occur during the period from 1000-1800 is “close to zero,” the paper states.
- The researchers worked to overcome a large amount of natural climate variability in the region by obtaining as many high quality ice core and other climate records as possible.
Threat level: “Global warming is now detectable in one of the most remote regions of the world,” the study states.
- The reconstructed history of meltwater flowing off the ice sheet shows a spike during the 2000-2011 period that is unprecedented for the past millennium, a trend it predicts will continue, though with less certainty than the temperature conclusions.
What they’re saying: “I hope this is a reminder for everyone that we should be worried, very worried about the Greenland ice sheet melting away,” Eric Rignot of UC Irvine and a senior researcher at NASA, who was not involved in the study, told Axios via email.
- Ian Joughin, a climate scientist at the University of Washington, who also not involved in the new work, said the study offers valuable new data. “Greenland is warming with a clear linear trend, which likely will steepen with time,” he said.
Yes, but: Joughin cautioned that natural variability in the region means future decades could see lower amounts of warming and melting, at least temporarily.
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- Insurance-covered losses from natural catastrophes worldwide totaled $120B in 2022
Natural disasters resulted in about $120 billion in insurance-covered losses around the world last year, according to a new report released on Tuesday.
The heavy losses in 2022 — driven by Hurricane Ian in the U.S. and several devastating floods in Asia and Australia — follow a “recent run of years with high losses,” the world’s largest reinsurer, Munich Re, said in Tuesday’s report.
“Climate change is taking an increasing toll,” Thomas Blunck, a member of Munich Re’s Board of Management, warned in a press release. “The natural disaster figures for 2022 are dominated by events that, according to the latest research findings, are more intense or are occurring more frequently.”
Hurricane Ian, which pummeled Florida in late September, was the costliest disaster of the year by far, resulting in about $100 billion in overall losses and $60 billion in insured losses.
Flooding in Pakistan was the second costliest natural catastrophe overall of 2022, with losses of about $15 billion. However, almost nothing was insured in the devastating floods that claimed more than 1,700 lives.
Australia’s floods were the second costliest disaster for insurers last year, with about $4.7 billion in insured losses between the flooding in February and March, as well as October.
The U.S. alone was hit by 18 separate weather- and climate-related disasters that cost more than $1 billion in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Tuesday.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...n-2022-report/
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- Compound extreme heat and drought will hit 90% of world population – Oxford study
More than 90% of the world’s population is projected to face increased risks from the compound impacts of extreme heat and drought, potentially widening social inequalities as well as undermining the natural world’s ability to reduce CO2 emissions in the atmosphere - according to a study from Oxford’s School of Geography
Warming is projected to intensify these hazards ten-fold globally under the highest emission pathway, says the report, published in Nature Sustainability.
In the wake of record temperatures in 2022, from London to Shanghai, continuing rising temperatures are projected around the world. When assessed together, the linked threats of heat and drought represent a significantly higher risk to society and ecosystems than when either threat is considered independently, according to the paper by Dr Jiabo Yin, a visiting researcher from Wuhan University and Oxford Professor Louise Slater.
These joint threats may have severe socio-economic and ecological impacts which could aggravate socio inequalities, as they are projected to have more severe impacts on poorer people and rural areas.
According to the research, ‘The frequency of extreme compounding hazards is projected to intensify tenfold globally due to the combined effects of warming and decreases in terrestrial water storage, under the highest emission scenario. Over 90% of the world population and GDP is projected to be exposed to increasing compounding risks in the future climate, even under the lowest emission scenario.’
Dr Yin says, ‘By using simulations from a large model…and a new machine-learning generated carbon budget dataset, we quantify the response of ecosystem productivity to heat and water stressors at the global scale.’
He maintains this shows the devastating impact of the compound threat on the natural world – and international economies. He says, limited water availability will hit the ability of ‘carbon sinks’ – natural biodiverse regions – to take in carbon emissions and emit oxygen.
Professor Slater says, ‘Understanding compounding hazards in a warming Earth is essential for the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular SDG13 that aims to combat climate change and its impacts. By combining atmospheric dynamics and hydrology, we explore the role of water and energy budgets in causing these extremes.’
limited water availability will hit the ability of ‘carbon sinks’ – natural biodiverse regions – to take in carbon emissions and emit oxygen
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2023-01-06-compound-extreme-heat-and-drought-will-hit-90-world-population-oxford-study# - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-01024-1
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Extra.
- Exxon's climate research accurately projected global warming, study finds
ExxonMobil's own climate science research, which began in the 1970s, accurately predicted the pace and severity of global warming, a new study finds.
Why it matters: The study is the first to examine the performance of Exxon's internal climate modeling as well as its scientists' collaborations with outside researchers. It provides a quantitative assessment of how much the company's executives may have known about the risks of burning oil and gas and when.
- The study provides more evidence that Exxon's communication to investors and the public through the 21st century, which has played down the threats posed by climate change and cast computer models as uncertain, did not match what executives were told internally.
- The research, dismissed by Exxon, may play a role in ongoing legal action against the company for allegedly misleading investors and the public about the dangers of global warming.
The big picture: Exxon scientists have been at the forefront of climate change research using computer models, the study published in the journal Science shows. According to the study, between 63% and 83% of the climate projections reported by Exxon scientists were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming.
- The Exxon scientists' projections showed the world would warm at a rate of about 0.20°C per decade, which was in line with independent academic and government studies in the 1970s through the early 2000s.
- According to the study, Exxon's research also led to an accurate estimate of how much carbon dioxide could be emitted before the world would warm by more than 2°C.
- This implied that some of the company's oil and gas holdings could become stranded assets, but such risks were not communicated to the company's investors or the public, the study notes.
Of note: The study assessed the skill scores of projections from Exxon's in-house climate modeling were more accurate than what then-NASA scientist James Hansen famously provided to Congress in his 1988 testimony warning human-caused global warming had started.
How they did it: The study examined 32 internal documents containing scientific research produced by in-house Exxon scientists between 1977 and 2002, and 72 peer-reviewed studies authored or co-authored by company scientists between 1982 and 2014.
- The internal documents had previously been analyzed for their text as part of a series of investigative journalism projects that have come to be known as #ExxonKnew, but the recent work breaks new ground by assessing the accuracy of modeling projections shown in these papers.
- To analyze Exxon scientists' predictions, the researchers took every global warming projection they could find, extracted and digitized the graphs, and quantitatively tested the predictions using established methods.
The intrigue: The new study involves researchers Naomi Oreskes and Geoffrey Supran, who have published multiple studies that qualitatively examined what Exxon knew internally and told the public about climate change.
- Both researchers have been vocal critics of Exxon's criticism of climate science as uncertain and unreliable, having extensively researched the company's public-facing advertisements and statements on the issue.
- Another coauthor is Stefan Rahmstorf, a well-known climate scientist and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
What they're saying: "Our findings demonstrate that ExxonMobil didn't just know 'something' about global warming decades ago — they knew as much as academic and government scientists knew," the study states.
- "We now have airtight, unimpeachable evidence that ExxonMobil accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists," said lead author Geoffrey Supran of the University of Miami, via email.
- "In essence, Exxon didn’t just know, they knew precisely," said Supran, who is starting the Climate Accountability Lab at the University of Miami, which "Will investigate climate disinformation & propaganda by fossil fuel interests," he stated via Twitter.
The other side: Exxon dismissed the study's findings while touting its climate research in a statement to Axios.
- "This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how 'Exxon Knew' are wrong in their conclusions," said Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler.
- "Some have sought to misrepresent facts and ExxonMobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign," he said.
- "ExxonMobil’s understanding of climate science has developed along with that of the broader scientific community," he said.
https://www.axios.com/2023/01/12/exx...global-warming