Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

Originally Posted by S Landreth

and AU have plenty to answer for

yes - though if our current push to produce steel with our iron ore using renewable electrolysis to produce hydrogen continues , then we will producing steel without using coking coal - and our quality will be much better than china's

and some breakthroughs with the electrolysis units reported today

Australian researchers claim ‘giant leap’ in technology to produce affordable renewable hydrogen

Australian researchers claim to have made a “giant leap” in lifting the efficiency of electrolysers, bringing forward the time when green hydrogen will be competitive with fossil fuels as an energy source.

Hysata, a company using technology developed at the University of Wollongong, said its patented capillary-fed electrolysis cells achieve 95% efficiency, meaning little wastage, beating by about one-quarter the levels of current technology.

The achievement, published in the peer-reviewed Nature Communication journal today, could see the Morrison government’s so-called hydrogen stretch goal of $2 a kilogram to make the fuel competitive reached as soon as 2025, the Hysata chief executive, Paul Barrett, said.

“We’ve gone from 75% [efficiency] to 95% – it’s really a giant leap for the electrolysis industry,” Barrett said.

Renewable energy from sources such as wind and solar is making big inroads into the power sector, supplying more than a third of eastern Australia’s electricity in the final three months of 2021. However, decarbonising industry and some transport, such as trucking, is likely to be tougher unless fuels such as hydrogen become much cheaper.

Gerry Swiegers, Hysata’s chief technology officer and a UoW professor, said electrolysis – which uses electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen – had been around for two centuries with mostly only incremental improvements in processing.

The central challenge was to reduce the electrical resistance within the electrolysis cell. Much like a smart phone battery warming as it charges, resistance wasted energy in a regular cell as well as often requiring additional energy for cooling.

“What we did differently was just to start completely over and to think about it from a very high level,” Swiegers said. “Everyone else was looking at improving materials or an existing design.”

Australian researchers claim ‘giant leap’ in technology to produce affordable renewable hydrogen | Energy | The Guardian

Meanwhile there are big fucking holes and we are probably already past several tipping points.

Giant sinkholes in Arctic seafloor observed for the first time - CNN

• NOAA – February 2022 was the 7^th warmest February recorded.

NOAA – January – February 2022 was the 6^th warmest start recorded

National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

• It’s 70 degrees warmer than normal in eastern Antarctica. Scientists are flabbergasted.

The coldest location on the planet has experienced an episode of warm weather this week unlike any ever observed, with temperatures over the eastern Antarctic ice sheet soaring 50 to 90 degrees above normal. The warmth has smashed records and shocked scientists.

“This event is completely unprecedented and upended our expectations about the Antarctic climate system,” said Jonathan Wille, a researcher studying polar meteorology at Université Grenoble Alpes in France, in an email.

“Antarctic climatology has been rewritten,” tweeted Stefano Di Battista, a researcher who has published studies on Antarctic temperatures. He added that such temperature anomalies would have been considered “impossible” and “unthinkable” before they actually occurred.

Parts of eastern Antarctica have seen temperatures hover 70 degrees (40 Celsius) above normal for three days and counting, Wille said. Helikened the event to the June 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, which scientists concluded would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change.

What is considered “warm” over the frozen, barren confines of eastern Antarctica is, of course, relative. Instead of temperatures being minus-50 (minus-45 Celsius) or minus-60 (minus-51 Celsius), they’ve been closer to 0 (minus-18 Celsius) or 10 (minus-12 Celsius) degrees — but that’s a massive heat wave by Antarctic standards.

The average high temperature in Vostok — at the center of the eastern ice sheet — is around minus-63 (minus-53 Celsius) in March. But on Friday, the temperature leaped to 0 degrees (minus-17.7 Celsius), the warmest it’s been there during March since record keeping began 65 years ago. It broke the previous monthly record by a staggering 27 degrees (15 Celsius).

“In about 65 record years in Vostok, between March and October, values ​​above -30°C were never observed,” wrote Di Battista in an email.

Vostok, a Russian meteorological observatory, is about 808 miles southeast of the South Pole and sits 11,444 feet above sea level. It’s famous for holding the lowest temperature ever observed on Earth: minus-128.6 degrees (minus-89.2 Celsius), set on July 21, 1983.

Temperatures running at least 50 degrees (32 Celsius) above normal have expanded over vast portions of eastern Antarctica from the Adélie Coast through much of the eastern ice sheet’s interior. Some computer model simulations and observations suggest temperatures may have even climbed up to 90 degrees (50 Celsius) above normal in a few areas.

Eastern Antarctica’s Concordia research station, operated by France and Italy and about 350 miles from Vostok, climbed to 10 degrees (minus-12.2 Celsius), its highest temperature on record for any month of the year. Average high temperatures in March are around minus-56 (minus-48.7 Celsius).

At a nearby weather station, the temperature reached 13.6 degrees (minus-10.2 Celsius) about 67 degrees (37 Celsius) above average, according to University of Wisconsin Antarctic researchers Linda Keller and Matt Lazzara.

Keller and Lazzara said in an email that such a high temperature is particularly noteworthy since March marks the beginning of autumn in Antarctica, rather than January, when there is more sunlight. At this time of year, Antarctica is losing about 25 minutes of sunlight each day.

Wille said the warm conditions over Antarctica were spurred by an extreme atmospheric river, or a narrow corridor of water vapor in the sky, on its east coast. According to computer models, the atmospheric river made landfall on Tuesday between the Dumont d’Urville and Casey Stations and dropped an intense amount of rainfall, potentially causing a significant melt event in the area.

The moisture from the storm diffused and spread over the interior of the continent. However, a strong blocking high pressure system or “heat dome,” moved in over east Antarctica, preventing the moisture from escaping. The heat dome was exceptionally intense, five standard deviations above normal.

The excessive moisture from the atmospheric river was able to retain large amounts of heat, while the liquid-rich clouds radiated the heat down to the surface — known as downward longwave radiation.

Wille explained warm air is often transported over the Antarctic interior this way but not to this extent or intensity. “[T]his is not something we’ve seen before,” he said. “This moisture is the reason why the temperatures have gotten just so high.”

Models show the atmospheric river will exit the continent around Saturday, but the moisture will take longer to dissipate. Abnormally high temperatures in the region could last through the weekend.

Wille said it’s difficult to attribute this one event to climate change at the moment, but he does think rising temperatures helped prime conditions for such an event. Climate change is “loading the dice” for more situations like this, he said.

The historically high temperatures in Antarctica follow a pulse of exceptional warmth on the planet’s opposite end. On Wednesday, temperatures near the North Pole catapulted 50 degrees above normal, close to the melting point.

Temperatures in eastern Antarctica are 70 degrees warmer than usual | TheHill - https://twitter.com/extremetemps/sta...57662944645120 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...limate-change/

Extra.

• The Floods

Berkeley Earth – February 2022 was the 8^th warmest February recorded.

Rest of 2022

The ongoing La Niña event makes it likely that 2022 will be cooler than recent record warm years; however, 2022 is nearly certain to remain within the top ten warmest years overall.

The statistical approach that we use, looking at conditions in January and prior months, believes that 2022 is most likely to be the 4th or 5th warmest year in the instrumental record, with about a 60% chance of one of these outcomes.

• Prof. Katharine Hayhoe - If we measure the start of spring by the earth's orbital position, it arrives on the same day every year. But if we measure it by when trees and plants are blooming, it's now starting 6 to 18 days earlier than it has in the past across much of the U.S. https://twitter.com/KHayhoe/status/1506340253799534599

Spring is arriving earlier across the US, and that's not always good news

Across much of the United States, a warming climate has advanced the arrival of spring. This year is no exception. In parts of the Southeast, spring has arrived weeks earlier than normal and may turn out to be the warmest spring on record.

Apple blossoms in March and an earlier start to picnic season may seem harmless and even welcome. But the early arrival of springtime warmth has many downsides for the natural world and for humans.

Rising temperatures in the springtime signal plants and animals to come alive. Across the United States and worldwide, climate change is steadily disrupting the arrival and interactions of leaf buds, cherry blossoms, insects and more.

• Satellite data shows entire Conger ice shelf has collapsed in Antarctica

An ice shelf about the size of Rome has completely collapsed in East Antarctica within days of record high temperatures, according to satellite data.

The Conger ice shelf, which had an approximate surface area of 1,200 sq km, collapsed around 15 March, scientists said on Friday.

Satellite data shows the Conger ice shelf has broken off iceberg C-38 and collapsed in Antartica. Photograph: USNIC

East Antarctica saw unusually high temperatures last week, with Concordia station hitting a record temperature of -11.8C on 18 March, more than 40C warmer than seasonal norms. The record temperatures were the result of an atmospheric river that trapped heat over the continent.

Ice shelves are extensions of ice sheets that float over the ocean, playing an important role in restraining inland ice. Without them, inland ice flows faster into the ocean, resulting in sea level rise.

Dr Catherine Colello Walker, an earth and planetary scientist at Nasa and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said though the Conger ice shelf was relatively small, “it is one of the most significant collapse events anywhere in Antarctica since the early 2000s when the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated”.

• SEC proposes first climate disclosure rules for public companies

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted 3-1 Monday to propose regulations that, for the first time, require companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions as well as their exposure to climate change risks.

Why it matters: The rule is meant to give companies more certainty about how they need to incorporate climate change into their financial reporting, but it contains gaps that may allow big emitters to obscure their complete carbon footprint.

The big picture: In proposing climate risk disclosure rules, the SEC is effectively trying to set a floor for companies to meet or exceed when reporting how prepared they are for the consequences of a warming world.

Details: The proposed rule would require companies to include certain climate change information on their financial reports, such as their Form 10-K.

The information to be disclosed would include how climate-related risks could affect the company's business, strategy and projections.

The company's greenhouse gas emissions would need to be audited by an outside party. The rule gives firms wiggle room over emissions embedded within its value chain, such as those caused when customers use its products, which are known as "Scope 3" emissions.

Yes, but: Companies would have a delayed start for disclosing Scope 3 emissions, and such disclosures would only apply to firms that consider Scope 3 emissions to be "material" or that have set Scope 3 emissions reduction targets.

This could allow companies to avoid disclosing Scope 3 emissions, which in many cases are the largest share of their climate footprint.

Also, on a call with reporters Monday morning, SEC staff members declined to discuss how the new rules would be enforced.

Between the lines: In crafting the new rule, the SEC has had to grapple with the near certainty that it will be challenged in court, which could result in a more cautious approach.

What they're saying: "I believe the SEC has a role to play when there's this level of demand for consistent, comparable information that may affect financial performance," SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said.

The other side: Hester Peirce, the SEC's lone sitting GOP member, said the plan is outside the commission's lane and expertise.

"This proposal steps outside our statutory limits by using the disclosure framework to achieve objectives that are not ours to pursue and by pursuing those objectives by means of disclosure mandates that may not comport with First Amendment limitations on compelled speech," she said in her statement. SEC proposes first mandatory climate risk disclosure rules

Just for fun.

• Putin's climate envoy resigns over Ukraine invasion and leaves Russia

Anatoly Chubais, Vladimir Putin's appointed climate envoy, resigned from his position and left the country, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday.

Why it matters: Chubais, who became a prominent economic reformer after the fall of the Soviet Union, resigned and fled in protest over Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, becoming the most senior Russian official to do so, Bloomberg first reported.: https://www.axios.com/putin-climate-...816e8e508.html

• investment opportunity or a warning where not to invest

This Is the Safest Place to Live as the Climate Changes

Thoughts

• Zeke Hausfather - Had a good time chatting about the Antarctic heat wave on NPR's

@livingonearth yesterday: https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1507859147806883841

Record Heat Wave in Antarctica
https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?...12&segmentID=4

I am not looking forward to the new Seattle normal of forest fire smoke and horrible abnormal high temperatures this summer.

Copernicus – March 2022 was the 5^th warmest March recorded

Globally, March 2022 was:

0.39°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for March
the fifth warmest March on record
close to 0.2°C cooler than the warmest March, which was in 2016

Copernicus

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• UN climate panel calls for historic shift to renewables

A major new report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls for an urgent shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy technologies in order to rein in global warming.

Why it matters: The IPCC's assessment reports set the terms of the climate debate with world leaders, CEOs and activists. A 2018 report galvanized a global youth protest movement.

The report, the third and final chapter in a broader assessment of climate science, focuses on what can be done to limit climate change.

• It concludes that the chances of meeting the most aggressive Paris Agreement temperature target — 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels — is slipping out of reach.
• The report includes a lengthy section on the role for carbon removal technologies, saying they are "unavoidable" in order to achieve net zero emissions.
• However, the authors place greater emphasis on the need to reduce emissions as much as possible in industry, transportation, land use and other sectors.
• The report reserves carbon removal for sectors such as certain industrial processes that are especially difficult to move away from fossil fuels.

By the numbers: The report calls for global greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2025, and effectively rules out the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees without at least temporarily shooting past that temperature target.

• The IPCC has shown that potentially catastrophic impacts of global warming, such as the loss of warm water coral reefs, are far more likely to occur if warming exceeds the 1.5-degree guard rail.

The big picture: The report highlights that, during the last decade, average annual greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history.

• The report finds that if global carbon dioxide emissions continue at current rates, the remaining "carbon budget" for keeping warming to the Paris Agreement's target "will be exhausted before 2030."
• Without the enactment of more stringent emissions reduction policies, the world is headed for median global warming of 3.2°C (5.76°F) by 2100, the report states.
• This much warming would have severe consequences for people and ecosystems, potentially destabilizing large parts of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and even rendering parts of the globe unlivable for parts of each year due to extreme heat.

To lower emissions, the IPCC points to the increasing affordability of renewable energy technologies, noting the decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar, wind and batteries since 2010.

• And in a departure from the last IPCC assessment report in 2014, it paints a darker future for the future use of fossil fuels.
• The report finds far greater investments are needed to scale up renewable energy technologies, with current investments falling short by three to six times compared to what is needed to limit warming to below 2°C by 2100.
• The report also finds that lifestyle changes, if paired with sweeping policy changes in transport, buildings and other sectors, could result in significant emissions reductions by 2050. However, individual lifestyle changes alone are insufficient to curtail climate change.

The intrigue: According to the IPCC, limiting warming to 2°C or below, as called for under the Paris Agreement, will effectively render fossil fuel assets, such as untapped reserves and power plants already in use, unusable. These facilities would then be known as "stranded assets."

• The report warns that coal — the most carbon intensive energy source — is the most vulnerable to becoming stranded assets during the coming decade, with oil and gas infrastructure increasingly rendered unusable toward midcentury.
• About 30% of oil, 50% of gas, and 80% of coal reserves would be unusable if warming is to be limited to the Paris Agreement's 2°C target, the report states.

What they're saying: The report underscores the urgency of cutting emissions at a time when boosting fossil fuel production is on the agenda, due to Russia's war in Ukraine.

• "Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in a statement. "But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels."

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• The world is 'perilously close' to irreversible climate change. 5 tipping points keep scientists up at night

Five years ago, the United Nations' panel on climate change was charged with drafting a series of reports detailing its science, the effects on the planet and how humanity might save itself.

The last of those reports arrived this week, and the news is dire. The world's scientists say the crisis is upon us, and unless we act now, multiple crucial planetary systems are on the cusp of permanent damage.

"We can't kick this can down the road any longer," said Andrea Dutton, a geoscientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Since the 1880s, the Earth's temperature has risen more than 2 degrees, according to NASA. That may not sound like a lot, but it's enough to disrupt natural systems that support all living things—including humans.

In a damning speech Monday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the world is "perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible" consequences.

Here are five tipping points scientists say could start to teeter in our children's lifetime:

Amazon rainforest becomes a savanna

Coral reefs die

Ice sheets melting

Atlantic circulation stops

The 'snow forest' disappears
https://phys.org/news/2022-04-world-...cientists.html

Originally Posted by bsnub

I am not looking forward to the new Seattle normal of forest fire smoke and horrible abnormal high temperatures this summer.

On the plus side, it seems Reg Dingle is basking on his sun lounger near Merry Hill, whilst those of us in Northern Thailand cower indoors.

• NOAA – March 2022 was the 5^th warmest March recorded

January – Match 2022 was the 5^th warmest yearly start recorded

National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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Study shows it's still feasible to hold global warming to 2degC

After years of bleak projections, countries now have better than even odds of limiting global warming to at or below the Paris Agreement's 2°C temperature target, a new study finds.

Yes, but: This requires all national emissions reduction pledges to be fully met, which countries are not currently on course to do.

• In addition, the study, led by Malte Meinshausen at the University of Melbourne, finds there is only a faint chance, between 6% to 10%, of meeting the agreement's more aggressive 1.5°C target.
• The only way to do so would be for countries to commit to far more stringent emissions cuts prior to 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.

Why it matters: Published in the journal Nature, this is the first peer-reviewed study to show such high odds of holding the global temperature increase to 2°C based on world leaders' existing pledges.

Threat level: Warming beyond 1.5 degrees risks calamitous consequences, including the death of warm water coral reefs and irreversible melting of large portions of polar ice sheets.

• Such warming is especially dangerous for developing nations and low-lying island countries.
• With just 1.1°C of warming so far compared to preindustrial levels, we're already seeing unprecedented heat waves, wildfires, intensifying tropical cyclones and melting glaciers and ice caps.

Driving the news: The study looks at the evolution in country emissions pledges, technically known as "Nationally Determined Contributions" (NDCs), between the Paris summit in 2015 and the summit in Glasgow late last year, and where they would take Earth's climate if they are fulfilled.

• According to the research, by November 2021, 154 countries had submitted either new or updated NDCs. Seventy-six of these had long-term targets such as net zero commitments.
• By studying over 1,400 emissions scenarios from commitments made up to and during the Glasgow summit, the researchers find that if all pledges are met on time, peak warming could be limited to just below 2°C.
• "This is big news because it's the first time that governments have come forward with specific targets that can hold global warming to below the symbolic two degrees level," study co-author Christophe McGlade of the International Energy Agency in Paris told reporters.

But, but, but... Policies are still needed to implement those pledges, and so far they're in short supply.

• In fact, the global energy crunch due to the war in Ukraine may be pushing energy policies in the direction of more fossil fuel extraction for some countries, including the U.S.

Be smart: Near-term cuts would fall far short of where they need to go to stay within the 1.5-degree guard rail.

• Instead of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, as required to be on a 1.5-degree pathway, existing NDCs would actually increase emissions by between 6% to 13% during this period, the study finds.
• The results, the researchers state, "provide a sobering assessment of how far current pledges are from limiting warming to 1.5°C," the study states.

Context: In an accompanying commentary, Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe, and climate scientist Frances Moore of U.C. Davis find that near-term commitments are especially important for the 1.5-degree target.

• "Long-term targets should be treated with skepticism if they are not supported by short-term commitments to put countries on a pathway to meet those targets in the next decade," they wrote.

What they're saying: Meinshausen told reporters on a conference call that the study offers a warning about the 1.5-degree target.

• "Our study clearly shows that increased action this decade is necessary for us to have a chance of not shooting past 1.5 degrees by a wide margin," he said.

Zeke Hausfather - https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1514269806194659328

Berkeley Earth..........

March 2022 was the 5th warmest March since records began in 1850.

Warm conditions occurred over much of Asia, the Arctic, and Antarctica.

Unusually cool conditions were present in the Middle East and the equatorial Pacific.

La Niña conditions are present and are likely to keep 2022 cooler than recent record years.

2022 is nearly certain to be one of the top ten warmest years, but unlikely to be a new warmest year (only a ~6% chance of a new record).

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Dr. Robert Rohde - Since the late 19th century, the Earth has warmed about 1.3 °C (2.3 °F), almost half of which has occurred since 1990.

This warming is strongly correlated with the rise in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1516732801164488706

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Michael Mann discusses the deadly South African floods, the role that climate crisis is playing with these extreme events, and what we need to do about it, with BBC World News

NASA – March 2022 was the 5^th warmest March recorded.

NASA

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Victorious Macron vows to unite France after fending off Le Pen threat

Macron had leaned to the left in the final days to try to court Mélenchon voters, promising to speed up measures against climate breakdown and expand environmental policy. His first task is to appoint a new prime minister, who he promised would be specifically devoted to addressing the climate crisis.

Reminder........... The best thing you can do to stop climate change is to vote

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Climate change fueled extreme rainfall during the 2020 hurricane season

Human-induced climate change fueled one of the most active North Atlantic hurricane seasons on record in 2020, according to a study published in the journal Nature.

The study analyzed the 2020 season and the impact of human activity on climate change. It found that hourly hurricane rainfall totals were up to 10% higher when compared to hurricanes that took place in the pre-industrial era in 1850, according to a news release from Stony Brook University.

"The impacts of climate change are actually already here," said Stony Brook's Kevin Reed, who led the study. "They're actually changing not only our day-to-day weather, but they're changing the extreme weather events."

There were a record-breaking 30 named storms during the 2020 hurricane season. Twelve of them made landfall in the continental U.S.

These powerful storms are damaging and the economic costs are staggering.

Hurricanes are fueled in part by moisture linked to warm ocean temperatures. Over the last century, higher amounts of greenhouse gases due to human emissions have raised both land and ocean temperatures.

Reed, associate professor and associate dean of research at Stony Brook's School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, says the findings show that human-induced climate change is leading to "more and quicker rainfall," which can hurt coastal communities.

"Hurricanes are devastating events," Reed said. "And storms that produce more frequent hourly rain are even more dangerous in producing damage flooding, storm surge, and destruction in its path."

The research was based on a "hindcast attribution" methodology, which is similar to a weather forecast but details events in the past rather than the future.

The publication of the study follows the release of a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — a United Nations body — that found that nations are not doing enough to rein in global warming.

Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and one of the hurricane study's co-authors, said the increases in hurricane rainfall driven by global warming is not shocking.

"What is surprising is that the amount of this human caused increase is so much larger than what is expected from increases in humidity alone," Wehner said in the release from Stony Brook. "This means that hurricane winds are becoming stronger as well."

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Twitter toughening policy on climate disinformation in ads

Twitter will not allow "misleading advertisements" that "contradict the scientific consensus on climate change," the social media platform said in a statement Friday, marking Earth Day.

Why it matters: Inaccurate or misleading information on global warming has been common on social media sites.

• But major platforms including Facebook, Google and YouTube have unveiled new efforts in recent years to attempt to deter circulation and steer users to accurate information.

Worth noting: The European Union announced Saturday that member countries have agreed to a new policy requiring Big Tech do more to address harmful content including disinformation and hate speech.
Driving the news: "We believe that climate denialism shouldn’t be monetized on Twitter, and that misrepresentative ads shouldn’t detract from important conversations about the climate crisis," Twitter sustainability executives Seán Boyle and Casey Junod said in a post.

• They said the approach would be "informed" by authoritative sources including reports by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Yes, but: The policy announced on Earth Day is not wholly new. "Before today, advertisements denying climate change would have been rejected or halted per our Inappropriate Content policy," Twitter spokesperson Elizabeth Busby told Axios via email on Friday.

• "The introduction of this formalized policy is to reinforce our commitment towards sustainability, drawing on IPCC assessment reports and input from global environmental experts," Busby said.
• Asked if there's anything that would now be rejected that would have not been previously covered, Busby replied: "The formalized policy is a continuation of our earlier approach."

What we don't know: The company did not say specifically how it would make decisions about what's prohibited, but the post says the new effort will be in line with Twitter existing policy on "inappropriate content."

• "In the coming months, we’ll have more to share on our work to add reliable, authoritative context to the climate conversations happening on Twitter," the company's Earth Day blog post states.
• Also it's not clear how Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk may change Twitter's content moderation if his takeover bid succeeds.

What they're saying: The group Friends of the Earth, which tracks tech giants' climate policies, called it an "important move to demonetize climate disinformation."

• "Companies like Meta must now take stronger action and stop being the last bastions of climate denial," the group said in a statement, referring to Facebook's parent company.

• Copernicus – April 2022 was the 6^th warmest April recorded.

Globally, April 2022 was:

0.28°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for April
the sixth warmest April on record, though only marginally colder than April 2018
more than 0.2°C cooler than the warmest Aprils, which were in 2016 and 2020
marginally warmer than April 2010, the warmest April prior to April 2016.

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• Last year's Northwest heat wave was one of globe’s worst

The heat wave that enveloped the Pacific Northwest and a swath of western Canada last summer, killing hundreds, was one of the most extreme such events on record for anywhere on Earth, a new study shows.

Driving the news: The study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, ranks the severity of extreme heat events by looking at the difference between the peak air temperatures and that region's typical temperature variability.

The team of United Kingdom-based researchers found only five other heat waves around the world since 1960 were more extreme than the Pacific Northwest event of 2021.

Why it matters: The research answers the question of how rare this event was from a global standpoint, and in the process, demonstrates the malicious influence of gradually increasing average temperatures.

It shines a light on the boiling a frog in gradually warming water myth (except with climate change, we would be the frog).

Previous studies of the Pacific Northwest heat wave have shown that it would have been virtually impossible to occur without human-caused global warming.

What they did: Researchers used two data sets of past global weather conditions as well as simulations of the future climate under varying rates of greenhouse gas emissions to show how heat waves are changing.

They calculated 10-year running means for given locations, enabling them to determine how unusual a temperature reading may have been compared to that average (expressed in terms of standard deviations).

What they found: Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and severe due to the climate change-related increase in average temperatures.

Another key conclusion is that regions that have avoided an extreme heat wave in recent decades may not be so lucky as climate change continues, and may see particularly acute impacts since they are not prepared for them.

Only five events ranked higher on the study authors' list of severe heat waves, including a 1998 heat wave in Southeast Asia and a 1985 event in southern Brazil.

Yes, but: The study was motivated in part by concerns raised last summer that as global warming continues, extreme temperature events are outracing the average and becoming even more extreme.

The findings instead show that heat extremes are increasing in tandem with average temperatures.

"The heat extremes will not be more intense, compared to the climatology of that decade — the climatology will get hotter so the extremes will do too," Vikki Thompson, study lead author and a researcher at the University of Bristol, told Axios via email.

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• Climate change could spark next pandemic, study finds

As the global climate continues to warm, wild animals may be forced to relocate to areas with large human populations — increasing the likelihood of a “viral jump” that could cause the next pandemic, a new study has found.

Different mammals will encounter one another for the first time during these journeys — called “geographic range shifts” — and in doing so, they will also share thousands of viruses, according to the study, published on Thursday in Nature.

Such shifts will also pave the way for pathogens like Ebola or coronaviruses to thrive in new areas and in new types of animals, making them harder track as they traverse “stepping stone” species toward their human destinations, the authors warned.

This phenomenon will essentially normalize the risks that people today associate with wildlife trade, according to lead author Colin Carlson, an assistant research professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center.

“We worry about markets because bringing unhealthy animals together in unnatural combinations creates opportunities for this stepwise process of emergence — like how SARS jumped from bats to civets, then civets to people,” Carlson said in a statement.

“But markets aren’t special anymore,” he continued. “In a changing climate, that kind of process will be the reality in nature just about everywhere.”

To draw their conclusions, the scientists conducted a comprehensive assessment of how climate change will transform the “global mammalian virome” — or the collection of viruses found in mammalian bodies.

They simulated potential hotspots by using geographic models of the mammal virus network and range shift projections for more than 3,000 mammal species, under various climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070.

A chief concern the scientists identified was the possibility that animal habitats will shift disproportionately to the same places that humans inhabit, amplifying the risk of viral spillover.

That process, they warned, is already underway in today’s environment, at 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. And efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not be able to thwart these events from unfolding, according to the authors.

Even if the world succeeds in keeping warming this century under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — the internationally recognized upper limit for global warming — doing so “will not reduce future viral sharing,” the scientists noted.

Rising temperatures will have particularly worrisome effects on bats, as these winged mammals can both travel long distances and are responsible for the majority of novel viral sharing, according to the study.

The scientists projected that the greatest impacts of such viral emergence will occur in Southeast Asia, which they described as “a global hotspot of bat diversity.”

As viruses begin to jump between host species at unprecedented rates, the authors warned that the effects on both conservation and human health could be astounding.

“This mechanism adds yet another layer to how climate change will threaten human and animal health,” co-lead author Gregory Albery, a postdoctoral fellow in Georgetown University’s Department of Biology, said in a statement.

“It’s unclear exactly how these new viruses might affect the species involved, but it’s likely that many of them will translate to new conservation risks and fuel the emergence of novel outbreaks in humans,” Albery added.

While the authors concluded that climate change is poised to become “the biggest upstream risk factor for disease emergence” — surpassing deforestation, wildlife trade and industrial agriculture — they also pointed to a possible solution to this new predicament.

That solution, they contended, involves pairing wildlife disease surveillance with real-time studies of environmental change.

If a Brazilian free-tailed bat finds its way to Appalachia, for example, researchers should be looking into what viruses came along for the ride, Carlson explained.

“Trying to spot these host jumps in real-time is the only way we’ll be able to prevent this process from leading to more spillovers and more pandemics,” he said.

“We’re closer to predicting and preventing the next pandemic than ever,” Carlson added. “This is a big step towards prediction — now we have to start working on the harder half of the problem.”

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• Tropical forest loss in 2021 emitted as much CO2 as India

The loss of humid tropical rainforests continued at a blistering pace in 2021, contributing 2.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, which is equivalent to the annual fossil fuel co2 emissions of India – the world's fourth largest emitter, an authoritative new report finds.

Why it matters: The report, put together by Global Forest Watch and the University of Maryland, shows the stark challenge of reining in forest loss.

Forests are a key repository of carbon, which, if released into the atmosphere, will accelerate human-caused global warming. Protecting forests, particularly those that are rich in stored carbon such as tropical forests, is a key component of plans to curb global warming.

Driving the news: At the Glasgow Climate Summit, 141 countries committed to "halt and reverse forest loss by 2030."

The annual forest loss report is based on satellite monitoring and on-the-ground observations, and reveals how each country’s domestic policies are either limiting the clearing of trees for agricultural use and road building, or encouraging it.

The report finds that the tropics alone lost 27.5 million acres of tree cover during 2021, with 9.3 million acres of that taking place in humid tropical primary forests.

This is equivalent to the total acreage of Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey.

How it works: Tropical primary forests are areas of natural, mature, humid tropical forest cover that have not been cleared and regrown in recent history. They tend to be cradles of biodiversity.

Tree cover loss refers to the removal of tree cover due to either human or natural causes, including wildfires. If trees are not given the chance to grow back, then these losses will have contributed to deforestation.

The intrigue: Most of the 2021 forest loss had already happened before world leaders made their Glasgow commitment, said Frances Seymour, a senior fellow with the World Resources Institute, a nonprofit environmental group that helps run Global Forest Watch, during a media conference call.

She said the new data should serve as a baseline for leaders' actions to come, but their steps will have to be "dramatic" if they are to be effective.

Forest loss hotspots in the Amazon rainforest in Brazil.

By the numbers: The top 10 list of countries for tropical primary forest loss last year was topped once again by Brazil, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia, Indonesia, Peru, Colombia, Cameroon, Laos, Malaysia and Cambodia, respectively.

Indonesia saw a 25% drop in primary forest loss compared to 2020, which was the fifth-straight year in which its forest loss rate declined. The report credits policy measures, such as efforts to reduce illegal palm oil plantations, for this decline.

Brazil accounted for 40% of tropical primary forest loss, continuing trends seen under President Jair Bolsonaro. The report shows a 25% uptick in primary forest loss in the western states of the Amazon basin, which it traced to cattle ranching and road-building.

Bolivia's primary forest loss hit its highest rate on record last year, with 0.7 million acres lost.

What they’re saying: Seymour said not enough is being done to support and reward countries for conserving their forests.

Between the lines: Demonstrating the urgency of preserving the Amazon, recent studies have shown portions of the vast rainforest may be close to a tipping point of transitioning into a drier savannah, with worldwide consequences.

High forest loss rates are not limited to the tropics, however. Northern boreal forests had their highest rate of tree cover loss on record in 2021, with 16.1 million acres lost, mainly due to wildfires.

Russia saw its worst wildfire season on record, with vast clouds of smoke traveling from Siberia to the Western U.S.

Threat level: In Russia, for example, hotter temperatures are drying forests out and enabling fires to start earlier and burn later into the summer, while expanding the areas that see these blazes.

"Climate change itself is making it harder to maintain the forest that we still have," Seymour said.

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Shocking, just shocking ……….

• Climate sceptic thinktank received funding from fossil fuel interests

An influential thinktank that has led the backlash against the government’s net zero policy has received funding from groups with oil and gas interests, according to tax documents seen by the Guardian and OpenDemocracy.

Though the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has always said it is independent of the fossil fuel industry, the revelations about its funding will raise questions over its campaigning.

The thinktank has always refused to disclose its donors, but tax documents filed with US authorities reveal that one of its donors has $30m (£24m) of shares in 22 companies working in coal, oil and gas.

Over four years the GWPF’s US arm, the American Friends of the GWPF, received more than $1m from US donors. The vast majority of this, $864,884, was channelled to the UK group, with some being held back for expenses. Of the £1.45m the GWPF has received in charitable donations since 2017, about 45% has come from the US.

It received $210,525 in 2018 and 2020 from the Sarah Scaife Foundation – set up by the billionaire libertarian heir to an oil and banking dynasty. The US-based foundation has $30m-worth of shares in 22 energy companies including $9m in Exxon and $5.7m in Chevron, according to its financial filings.

Between 2016 and 2020, the American Friends of the GWPF received $620,259 from the Donors Trust, which is funded by the Koch brothers, who inherited their father’s oil empire and have spent hundreds of millions of dollars funding the climate denial movement.

“It is disturbing that the Global Warming Policy Foundation is acting as a channel through which American ideological groups are trying to interfere in British democracy,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the LSE Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

The GWPF was set up by Lord Lawson, a former Conservative chancellor, in 2009, to challenge the “costs and implications” of measures to tackle climate change. Since then, it has gained prominence in UK politics, counting Conservative MPs and peers as supporters and trustees.

Craig Mackinlay, who runs the Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG), a committee of about 20 parliamentarians, has supported the GWPF in its campaigning and two advisers to the GWPF were recently hired by Mackinlay’s parliamentary office as researchers. The NZSG says it does not question climate science, but exists to question the costs of reaching net zero.

Steve Baker, the Wycombe MP who has led much of the criticism towards the government’s net zero policies, is a trustee of the GWPF and vocally supports the group, recently sharing a report by the thinktank that denied the climate emergency exists. He is a prominent member of the NZSG, and has recently campaigned for fracking, inviting the shale gas industry to speak to MPs and members of the rightwing press in parliament.

After campaigning from the NZSG, the government recently declared that fracking companies would be allowed to continue their research in the UK. Shale gas wells that were supposed to be filled in with concrete this summer have been given a new lease of life, after campaigning from Baker, Mackinlay and others associated with the NZSG. There are fears that the UK’s net zero ambitions could be watered down with further campaigning from MPs on the right of the party.

The Guardian has asked Baker and Mackinlay whether they would reconsider their connections to the GWPF in light of the news about the thinktank’s funding. Mackinlay said: “Do look at my staff declarations of interests as properly recorded in the parliamentary register; all totally transparent and for the world to see. Make of it whatever you wish.”

Baker said the allegations “appear to be ridiculous”, adding: “It is an extraordinary fact that the same newspapers and commentators who would usually be the first to protest any kind of poverty are wasting the public’s time with these attempts to distract from the real issues at hand. It would be better if the political world focused their attention on how our current energy strategy has driven up energy prices and contributed to the terrible cost-of-living crisis that so many are experiencing.”

The funding has caused fears that the culture wars over climate denial in the US could be being imported to UK politics, and funded by billionaires with links to “big oil”.

Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, said: “US rightwing groups with links to big oil are desperate to stop action against the climate crisis. Now they are trying to extend their reach into UK political debate.

“Opposing action on the climate emergency will drive up bills for consumers because green power is now cheaper, cleaner, and quicker than fossil fuels.”

Already the rumblings of a culture war have begun, with the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage calling for a referendum on net zero, and Baker, a vital figure in the Brexit campaign, declaring he wanted to “do for net zero what [he] did for Brexit”.

A spokesperson for the GWPF said: “We do not accept donations from anyone with an interest in an energy company. We turn down many offers of funding from people with vested interests. I am not sure this is true of any group on the other side of the debate.

“Donor’s Trust is a middleman, matching donors to those seeking funding. Disbursements are not made from a homogenous pool of money – recipients of funds know the identity of the original donors. We are therefore able to vet them in line with our funding policy.

“I suggest you also consider what constitutes an ‘interest’. Money that is inherited does not create an ‘interest’, let alone a vested one. The wealth that ultimately created the Scaife Foundation was created at the end of the 19th century and the start of the 20th. It would be ludicrous to suggest that three generations on, it represents an oil company interest.”

• NASA – April 2022 was the 7^th warmest April recorded

NASA GISS

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• Deadliest weather disaster so far in 2022: flooding in South Africa

The deadliest weather disaster so far in 2022 occurred on April 7-13, when catastrophic flooding hit the KwaZulu-Natal region of South Africa after a stalled low-pressure system dumped torrential rains. More than 300 mm (12 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours near the coastal city of Durban on April 11-12. The disaster killed at least 435, and caused more than $1.5 billion in damage. Heavy rains are more likely in South Africa when, as currently, a La Niña event is present.

The second deadliest weather disaster so far this year was the flooding in Brazil on February 15, which triggered a landslide that killed 232 people in the Petropolis area.

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• South Africa’s April floods made twice as likely by climate crisis, scientists say

The massive and deadly floods that struck South Africa in April were made twice as likely and more intense by global heating, scientists have calculated. The research demonstrates that the climate emergency is resulting in devastation.

Catastrophic floods and landslides hit the South African provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape on 11 April following exceptionally heavy rainfall.

The South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa called the floods a “catastrophe of enormous proportions” and “the biggest tragedy we have ever seen”, later declaring a national state of disaster. At least 453 people were killed and the port of Durban, the largest in Africa, was closed, causing global disruption in the supply of food and minerals.

Other recent studies found that the heatwave in the Pacific Northwest region of North America in 2021 would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change, and that global heating exacerbated the extreme floods in Europe in July 2021 and the storms in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique in January.

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“If we do not reduce emissions and keep global temperatures below 1.5C, many extreme weather events will become increasingly destructive,” said Dr Izidine Pinto, at the University of Cape Town and part of the team that conducted the analysis. “We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a new reality where floods and heatwaves are more intense and damaging.”

Dr Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London and also part of the team, said: “Most people who died in the floods lived in informal settlements, so again we are seeing how climate change disproportionately impacts the most vulnerable people. However, the flooding of the port of Durban is also a reminder that there are no borders for climate impacts. What happens in one place can have substantial consequences elsewhere.”

A brutal heatwave is being endured in India and Pakistan and is certain to have been made worse by global heating. “There is no doubt that climate change is a huge game changer when it comes to extreme heat,” said Otto. “Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change.”

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• Great Barrier Reef - Reef health

Aerial surveys of the 2022 findings

The Great Barrier Reef’s waters warmed early in December 2021, exceeding historical summer maximums that typically occur in the hottest summer months. Ocean temperatures continued to accumulate heat throughout the summer until early April 2022, with three distinct heat waves increasing thermal stress throughout the Central and Northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR).

This prolonged heat exposure led to a mass bleaching of coral across the Great Barrier Reef; the fourth to occur in seven years. Unusually, this was the first mass bleaching event to occur under La Niña conditions.

Increased reports of coral bleaching prompted Reef-wide aerial surveys in the second half of March 2022 to assess the extent of coral bleaching. Aerial surveys were conducted by trained observers from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

• A total of 719 reefs were surveyed from the air between the Torres Strait and the Capricorn Bunker Group in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.
• Of these, 654 reefs (91 per cent) exhibited some bleaching. Coral bleaching observed from the air was largely consistent with the spatial distribution of heat stress accumulation, with a greater proportion of coral cover bleached on reefs that were exposed to the highest accumulated heat stress this summer.
• The 2022 Aerial Survey Map illustrates the variation in bleaching observed across the Reef in the latter half of March.

1 Week Left!

https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/s...90735806787584

• JMA - The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in April 2022 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.21°C above the 1991-2020 average (+0.78°C above the 20th century average), and was the 6th warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.76°C per century.

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2016 (+0.46°C), 2nd. 2020 (+0.36°C), 3rd. 2019 (+0.34°C), 4th. 2017 (+0.26°C), 5th. 2010 (+0.24°C)

Tokyo Climate Center

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• Shell consultant quits, says company causes ‘extreme harm’ to planet

A Shell consultant resigned Monday with a searing email accusing the oil giant of “failing on a massive planetary scale” to limit climate risks.

Caroline Dennett, who has been a U.K.-based safety consultant for Shell for 11 years, said she could no longer work for the company given its plans to expand fossil fuel extraction.

In an email sent to the executive committee and more than 1,000 employees, she wrote that as “continued oil & gas extraction is causing extreme harm” to the planet, Shell was “failing on a massive planetary scale” to deliver on its pledge to cause “no harm” with its operations.

“Shell is operating beyond the design limits of our planetary systems. Shell is not implementing steps to mitigate the known risks. Shell is not putting environmental safety before production,” Dennett wrote in her email, seen by POLITICO.

She cited the International Energy Agency’s findings that no new gas or oil fields should be developed to reach net-zero emissions by the middle of the century and stay within relatively safe levels of global warming.

Shell last year put forward a net-zero strategy but still plans to explore new fossil fuel projects until 2025, and recently started campaigning for the U.K. government to let the company develop a new North Sea gas field.

“It pains me to end this working relationship which I have greatly valued, but I can no longer work for a company that ignores all the alarms and dismisses the risks of climate change and ecological collapse,” Dennett wrote.

She called on the company’s management “to look in the mirror and ask themselves if they really believe their vision for more oil & gas extraction secures a safe future for humanity” and asked employees who can do so to “please walk away and towards a more sustainable career.”

Asked for comment, a Shell spokesperson said that the company was "determined to deliver on our global strategy to be a net-zero company by 2050" and that it had "every intention of hitting" its targets.

They added: "We're already investing billions of dollars in low-carbon energy, although the world will still need oil and gas for decades to come in sectors that can't be easily decarbonized."

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• Massachusetts high court allows AG’s Exxon lawsuit to proceed

Massachusetts’s highest court on Tuesday declined to strike down Attorney General Maura Healey’s (D) lawsuit accusing ExxonMobil of knowingly misleading shareholders and the public about the relationship between its products and climate change.

The energy giant had argued the lawsuit ran afoul of Massachusetts’s anti-strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPP) law. However, the panel ruled the state law did not apply to civil actions by the attorney general’s office.

“Construing the anti-SLAPP statute to apply to the Attorney General would place significant roadblocks to the enforcement of the Commonwealth’s laws,” the ruling says.

Such an interpretation would have “a substantial effect on the investigation and enforcement of illegal activity, which is a critical function of the government,” Justice Scott Kafker wrote.

SLAPP statutes are generally intended to protect people and entities from nuisance lawsuits from private citizens, rather than government agencies, he added.

“Once again, Exxon’s attacks on my office and our case have been rejected by the courts. Today’s ruling is a resounding victory in our work to stop Exxon from lying to investors and consumers in our state. Exxon’s repeated attempts to stonewall our lawsuit have been baseless, and this effort was no different,” Healey said in a statement. “We look forward to proceeding with our case and having our day in court to show how Exxon is breaking the law and to put an end to the deception once and for all.”

An Exxon spokesperson told The Hill the company is “reviewing the decision and evaluating next steps.”

Healey’s office brought the lawsuit in 2019, claiming Exxon misled consumers about the extent to which its products reduce greenhouse gases and produce renewable energy, a practice known as “greenwashing.”

A number of states and environmental organizations have brought similar lawsuits against fossil fuel companies, and federal courts have issued similar rulings in California, Colorado and Maryland.

Congressional Democrats have also set their sights on Exxon and other oil companies over allegations they misled the public, with regard to both the environmental friendliness of their products and the link between fossil fuels and climate change. In a 2021 hearing of the House Oversight Committee, executives from Exxon and other oil companies denied under oath that they knowingly spread misinformation about the relationship.

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• Climate change increased odds and severity of India, Pakistan heat

Study: Climate change made India, Pakistan heat wave 30 times more likely

Human-caused climate change has ratcheted up the odds and severity of the record-shattering heat wave that has gripped India and Pakistan since March, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The climate attribution study is the first to specifically examine the factors behind the 2022 heat wave. The new work also indicates that heat waves worsened by global warming are affecting human health, food security and economic output.

• A separate study that was published earlier this month examined the odds that a heat wave would break a record set in 2010.

Driving the news: Since March, India and Pakistan have seen extraordinarily high temperatures and below average rainfall. The dry conditions have only raised temperatures further, hampering economic activity by cutting down on outdoor work. The heat wave has killed at least 90 people, the study states.

• March was the hottest month in India since records began there 122 years ago, the study notes, and Pakistan set the highest worldwide positive temperature anomaly during for the month. The heat continued during April and into May. On April 29, the study finds, 70% of India was enveloped by the heat wave.
• Temperatures in the hottest locations have routinely reached or exceeded 120°F.

The big picture: While extreme heat is common in India and Pakistan prior to the onset of the summer monsoon, the hot weather this year has been unusually pronounced, as well as longer-lasting than usual. It also hit earlier in the year than is typically seen.

• The heat has dented wheat crop yields at a time when global supplies are strained due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting India to cut off exports to the global market.
• It also produced a damaging glacial lake outburst flood in northern Pakistan.
• "Climate change is fueling impacts that ripple across to other parts of the world, not just the face where the heatwave is occurring," said study coauthor Roop Singh from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center.

Zoom in: The study was conducted by more than two-dozen scientists around the world who are affiliated with the World Weather Attribution project, which uses peer reviewed methods to conduct rapid analyses of how climate change has influenced an extreme weather event.

• They examined the average of daily maximum high temperatures during the March through April 2022 period.
• The researchers concluded that the heat wave has been about a 1-in-100-year event in this region, although they caution this is likely an underestimate due to a relatively short period of data in some areas.
• The study found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made this event both about 1°C hotter and more likely to occur, with the probability of such an event increasing by a factor of 30.

Threat level: If global average temperatures reach 2°C above preindustrial levels, such a heat wave would become an additional 2% to 20% more likely, and up to 1.5°C hotter than the 2022 event, the study found. This mean such heat waves could have a typical return period of once every five years in such a warming scenario.

• This is a noteworthy finding since currently, the world is on course for about 3°C of warming by the end of the century.

Yes, but: The researchers note that measures can be taken to help protect vulnerable populations from such events, such as heat wave early warning systems and bolstering public services such as cooling centers.

What they're saying: "[In] a world without climate change, this event was highly, highly unlikely," said Arpita Mondal, a study co-author from the Indian Institute of Technology Mumbai, on a conference call with reporters.

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• German judges visit Peru glacial lake in unprecedented climate crisis lawsuit

In a global first for climate breakdown litigation, judges from Germany have visited Peru to determine the level of damage caused by Europe’s largest emitter in a case that could set a precedent for legal claims over human-caused global heating.

Judges and court-appointed experts visited a glacial lake in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range this week to determine whether Germany’s largest electricity provider, RWE, is partially liable for the rise in greenhouse gases that could trigger a devastating flood.

Framed by majestic ice-capped peaks, Lake Palcacocha has swollen in volume by 34 times in the last five decades. A peer-reviewed study links accelerated glacial melt caused by global heating to the substantial risk of an outburst flood which could trigger a deadly landslide inundating the city of Huaraz below.

In 2017, judges in Hamm, Germany, made legal history by accepting a case brought by farmer and mountain guide Saúl Luciano Lliuya against RWE, asking for €17,000 (£14,490) for the costs of preventing damage from a potentially devastating outburst flood from the lake.

“As a mountain guide I have been able to understand from the summit how glacial melt is happening right in front of our eyes,” Lliuya, 41, said, near the Palcaraju glacier, a sheer wall of ice and snow which looms over the lake.

Lliuya’s house in Huaraz’s hardscrabble Nueva Florida neighbourhood lies in the flood path where about 50,000 people would be under threat. The local authorities have established an early warning system that would set off sirens in case the lake breaches its banks.

“It is a possibility that a large chunk of rock with ice on it falls into the lake then we are talking about the possibility of millions of cubic metres [of water overflowing],” said Dr Martin Mergili, an expert in geomorphology at Austria’s Graz University.

Mergili said while the Palcacocha Lake was a high-risk example it was far from the only one in the Andes mountain chain, which holds nearly all the world’s tropical glaciers, most of which are in Peru.

“In the last 10 years we have had various glacial lake outburst floods which were triggered by instabilities of glacier-sized walls,” he added.

The German court has already agreed that RWE would be liable for the damages if it can be proved that the glacier poses a flood risk and that climate breakdown had caused it to melt.

“To my knowledge, this is the absolute first case globally where judges travel from one country, where the jurisdiction is, to the country where the damage is, where it is actually climate change-related,” said Roda Verheyen, an environmental lawyer who represents Lliuya.

“This is not the first claim that has used climate science, there are many others,” said Petra Minnerop, associate professor of International Law at Durham University. “However, this would be one of the first cases that could make use of attribution studies.”

Attribution studies seek to test whether – and by how much – climate breakdown may be responsible for extreme weather events; such as extreme flooding, droughts, excessive heat or hurricanes.

The case could have implications for fossil fuel companies. RWE is being sued for having contributed to 0.47% of historical global emissions. Firms like BP and Shell could also face similar cases in the future.

“This is the only case in the entire world to this day that looks at the responsibility of private emitters of greenhouse gases to take responsibility for the impacts of climate change in a different country,” said Verheyen. “And for some reason – which I cannot explain – it remains the only one.” https://www.theguardian.com/environm...crisis-lawsuit

Copernicus - May 2022 tied with May 2018 and 2021 to be the 5^th warmest May recorded.

Globally, May 2022 was:

0.26°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for February
the fifth warmest May on record, jointly with 2018 and 2021
0.2°C cooler than the warmest May, which was in 2020
cooler than the Mays of 2016, 2017 and 2019.

Copernicus

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A reminder to get out and VOTE!

Trump-era rollbacks left US behind peers in climate change fight

The U.S. plummeted in international rankings of action on climate change, due predominantly to rollbacks under the Trump administration, according to a report issued Wednesday from Yale and Columbia University researchers.

For the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), researchers traced countries’ progress toward net-zero emissions, a goal nearly every nation has established. From 2010 to 2019, the U.S. ranked 20th out of 22 western democracies and 43rd overall on its trajectory toward net-zero, according to the EPI.

“This relatively low ranking reflects the rollback of environmental protections during the Trump Administration,” the report states. “In particular, its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and weakened methane emissions rules meant the United States lost precious time to mitigate climate change while many of its peers in the developed world enacted policies to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.”

Britain and Denmark are the only countries on track to achieve net-zero by 2050, according to the report. Meanwhile, Namibia and Botswana would achieve the goal based on current progress but are not considered on track because projected growth in their economies is predicted to knock them off course, according to the EPI.

However, the report also found that countries high on the ranking have managed to “decouple” their emissions from economic expansion rather than having to make a choice between increased emissions or economic contraction.

The previous EPI included data through 2017, making this the first edition to incorporate data from the Trump presidency. It does not include any data from the Biden administration, and does not reflect many of Biden’s attempts to reverse Trump-era rollbacks, such as rejoining the Paris climate agreement and a temporary pause on fossil fuel leasing on public lands.

The report determined that without stronger mitigation policies, 24 countries will comprise 8 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, and four countries — the U.S., China, India and Russia — will represent more than 50 percent.

Echoing other research, the EPI also found that emissions have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels after dropping in the early months of the pandemic.

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Yes, the drought really is that bad

Across the West, state leaders are bracing against the long-term impacts of aridification. In late April, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown added four additional counties to the ‘drought emergency’ tally — now, half the state is in a state of emergency. Further south, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which gets water to millions of city dwellers, restricted outdoor water use for the first time ever. In Colorado, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated the entire state a “primary natural disaster area” due to the threat of drought — also considered an ‘unprecedented’ move. The Southwest, as a whole, has been hit hard with dry conditions: Utah and New Mexico both issued separate emergency declarations, one for water scarcity and the other for wildfire.

The political designations unlock resources and expand powers for states and counties to navigate the extreme water scarcity, making available, among other things, relief aid for the agriculture industry. Westerners will undoubtedly need it this summer, and — as the drought likely continues — future summers.

Shrinking snowpacks, parched topsoil and depleted reservoirs are symptoms of the West’s worst set of dry years since 800 A.D. There is also a significant likelihood the megadrought continues. A study published in Nature Climate Change in February predicted a 94% chance the drought stretches through 2023; the chances of it persisting through 2030 are 75%, when factoring in continued impacts of a warming climate.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of the West is in “moderate” to “severe drought.” Certain regions, like eastern and southwestern Oregon, California’s Central Valley, southern Nevada and eastern New Mexico are in “extreme” to “exceptional” drought.

Here are a few numbers and notable coverage to understand how the drought is impacting the West:

THE SOUTHWEST

• Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the nation's largest reservoirs, are at record lows — 24% full and 31% full, respectively. Powell’s stored supplies have dropped to just about 5 million acre-feet, triggering emergency releases to stymie dropping levels. The lake has a capacity of 26 million acre-feet.
• Cities, from San Diego to Las Vegas, are adapting with programs like “cash-for-grass” and water recycling, according to reporting from Yale Environment 360.
• 98% of the Southwest is in drought this week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
• According to NASA Earth Observatory, researchers are seeing widespread and severe low-snow and low-runoff conditions across the region. Their modeling indicates snowpack has peaked roughly a month earlier than normal in the Upper Colorado Basin.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

• According to Oregon’s Fifth Climate Assessment, the state’s annual average temperature has warmed by about 2.2˚F per century since 1895. More than a third of the state, on average, has been in drought since the year 2000.
• 58% of Idaho is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions. The state’s water resource department issued an emergency drought declaration in 34 out of its 44 counties in April.
• Glaciers in Washington’s Olympic National Park could be gone by 2070, with permanent impacts on an important source of summer water, according to a new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.

CALIFORNIA

• Urban water use in the state rose by nearly 19% in March. 6 million people in Southern California will face outdoor water restrictions for the first time ever this summer, as Metropolitan Water District of Southern California orders outdoor watering once a week in a few densely populated cities.
• Water sold for $2,000 per acre foot for the first time ever.
• In 2021 alone, the ongoing drought cost thousands of jobs and over $1 billion in the San Joaquin Valley; hundreds of wells have gone dry and more are expected to dry up this year.
• California’s largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, are at ‘critically’ low levels.

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Just for fun.

The best thing any one person can do to stop climate change is to vote against climate deniers.

Climate Denier Clobbered in California Primary

California Governor Primary Election Results: Newsom, Dahle advance

Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom will face Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle in November, NBC News projects.

Under California’s system, the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to a general election. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...vernor-results

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Climate contrarians Michael Shellenberger and Bjorn Lomborg both got airtime on Fox shows this week to attack Joe Biden’s recent climate plan and promote their new books, which similarly downplay the seriousness of the climate crisis. This claim is wrong, of course, and plays right into the hands of the right-wing media which is all too eager to use their message to delay necessary climate action.

On July 14, Environmental Progress founder Shellenberger appeared on Fox News’ Tucker Carlson Tonight to discuss Biden’s new climate plan. With his recent book Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All in the background behind him, Shellenberger falsely accused renewable energy of being costly and inefficient, lamented why natural gas and nuclear power weren’t taken seriously by the Biden campaign, and accused “United Nations officials and some scientists” of wanting to “control energy and food production around the world.” https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-new...s-climate-plan

https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/sta...23981633830912

NOAA – May 2022 was the 9^th warmest May recorded.

January – May 2022 was the 6^th warmest January – May recorded.

National Centers for Environmental Information

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• New data reveals extraordinary global heating in the Arctic

New data has revealed extraordinary rates of global heating in the Arctic, up to seven times faster than the global average.

The heating is occurring in the North Barents Sea, a region where fast rising temperatures are suspected to trigger increases in extreme weather in North America, Europe and Asia. The researchers said the heating in this region was an “early warning” of what could happen across the rest of the Arctic.

The new figures show annual average temperatures in the area are rising across the year by up to 2.7C a decade, with particularly high rises in the months of autumn of up to 4C a decade. This makes the North Barents Sea and its islands the fastest warming place known on Earth.

Recent years have seen temperatures far above average recorded in the Arctic, with seasoned observers describing the situation as “crazy”, “weird”, and “simply shocking”. Some climate scientists have warned the unprecedented events could signal faster and more abrupt climate breakdown.

It was already known that the climate crisis was driving heating across the Arctic three times faster than the global average, but the new research shows the situation is even more extreme in places.

Sea ice is good at reflecting sunlight but is melting away. This allows the darker ocean below to absorb more energy. Losing sea ice also means it no longer restricts the ability of warmer sea waters to heat up the Arctic air. The more ice is lost, the more heat accumulates, forming a feedback loop.

“We expected to see strong warming, but not on the scale we found,” said Ketil Isaksen, senior researched at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and who led the work. “We were all surprised. From what we know from all other observation points on the globe, these are the highest warming rates we have observed so far.”

“The broader message is that the feedback of melting sea ice is even higher than previously shown,” he said. “This is an early warning for what’s happening in the rest of the Arctic if this melting continues, and what is most likely to happen in the next decades.” The world’s scientists said in April that immediate and deep cuts to carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases are needed to tackle the climate emergency.

“This study shows that even the best possible models have been underestimating the rate of warming in the Barents Sea,” said Dr Ruth Mottram, climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute, and not part of the team. “We seem to be seeing it shifting to a new regime, as it becomes less like the Arctic and more like the North Atlantic. It’s really on the edge right now and it seems unlikely that sea ice will persist in this region for much longer.”

The research, published in the journal Scientific Reports, is based on data from automatic weather stations on the islands of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Until now, this had not been through the standard quality control process and made public.

The result was a high-quality set of surface air temperature measurements from 1981 to 2020. The researchers concluded: “The regional warming rate for the Northern Barents Sea region is exceptional and corresponds to 2 to 2.5 times the Arctic warming averages and 5 to 7 times the global warming averages.”

There was a very strong correlation over time between air temperature, sea ice loss and ocean temperature. Isaksen said the rapid temperature rise would have a very big impact on ecosystems: “For instance, here in Oslo, we have a temperature rise of 0.4C a decade and people really feel the disappearing snow conditions during winter. But what’s happening in the far north is off the scale.”

Isaksen said the new information on heating rates in the area would help research by other scientists on how changes in the Arctic affect extreme weather in populous areas at lower latitudes. There is evidence that the rapid heating changes the jet stream winds that encircle the pole and influence extreme weather.

“Sea ice loss and warming in the Barents Sea in particular have been isolated in previous work as being especially relevant to changes in winter-time atmospheric circulation that are tied to extreme winter weather events,” said Prof Michael Mann, from Pennsylvania State University, US. “If this mechanism is valid, and there’s some debate over that, then this is yet another way climate change could be increasing certain types of extreme weather events [and which] isn’t well captured by current models.”

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• La Nina headed for rare "triple dip" return

An ongoing La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean is at near record intensity for this time of year and could extend its streak into a rare third fall and winter season, according to forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Why it matters: La Niña, which is characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has repercussions for the Atlantic hurricane season.

• Such events tend to weaken upper-level winds over the Atlantic Ocean, creating more favorable conditions for tropical storms and hurricanes to form and strengthen.
• For this reason, most forecasting groups in the public and private sectors are predicting an above-average hurricane season.

The big picture: The current La Niña began back in the late summer and early fall of 2020, and it has reached an intensity that ranks it "among the strongest springtime La Niñas in the historical record dating back to 1950," according to NOAA's Michelle L'Heureux, who specializes in El Niño and La Niña.

• The latest forecasts call for La Niña to potentially wane this summer and then rebound in the fall and early winter. This would be known as a "triple-dip La Niña," since it would be the third straight La Niña fall/winter season.
• "Most models hint at a La Niña rebound during the fall/winter," L'Heureux said.

Of note: With each week that La Niña remains, the less likely it becomes that 2022 will set a new global temperature record. The cooler ocean waters in the Pacific tend to keep somewhat of a lid on global average temperatures.

• However, the world's oceans overall are continuing to take up extra heat from an atmosphere altered by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring that more heat will be released into the atmosphere as soon as this La Niña ends.
• Typically, El Niño events, which feature warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, provide an extra boost to global average temperatures and lead to record warmest years.
• May was the ninth-warmest such month on record globally, NOAA found. It would likely have been even warmer without La Niña's influence.
• The agency predicts 2022 is "almost certain" to wind up among the top 10 warmest years. However, it's currently running in sixth place.

Yes, but: La Niña has still other consequences and is likely exacerbating the drought in the Southwest.

• A triple-dip La Niña outlook is a warning sign that the drought may be extended yet again.

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Extreme weather event……….

• Europe wilts under early heat wave from Med to North Sea

A blanket of hot air stretching from the Mediterranean to the North Sea is bringing much of Western Europe its first heat wave of the summer, with temperatures Friday exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) from London to Paris.

Meteorologists say the unusually early heat wave is a sign of what's to come as global warming continues, moving up in the calendar the temperatures that Europe would previously have seen only in July and August.

"In some parts of Spain and France, temperatures are more than 10 degrees higher — that's huge — than the average for this time of year," Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, said.

In France, some 18 million people woke to heat wave alerts affecting about a third of the country Friday. Forest fire warnings were issued from the Pyrenees in the south to the Paris region.

Tourists dunked their feet in fountains near the Eiffel Tower or sought relief in the Mediterranean.

France has introduced numerous measures to cope with extreme summer temperatures following a deadly heat wave in 2003 that killed about 15,000 people.

On Friday, schoolchildren were allowed to skip classes in the 12 western and southwestern French regions that were under the highest alert. The government stepped up efforts to ensure nursing home residents and other vulnerable populations could stay hydrated.

Temperatures in France have mounted all week and passed 39 C (102.2 F) in the southwest Friday. Nighttime temperatures are also unusually high, and the heat is stretching to normally cooler regions in Brittany and Normandy on the Atlantic Coast.

Matthieu Sorel, a climatologist at national weather service Meteo France, told public broadcaster France-Info that temperatures are expected to break several records. He called the exceptionally early long stretch of hot weather a "marker of climate change."

Britain recorded its hottest day of the year so far, with the temperature reaching 32.4C Celsius (90 Fahrenheit) at Heathrow Airport near London just after midday.

The heatwave prompted organizers of the Royal Ascot horse racing event to relax their famously strict dress code, with men allowed remove their jackets and ties once the traditional carriage procession by members of the royal family had ended.

In the Dutch capital, Amsterdam, people boarded trains to the nearest North Sea beach early Friday afternoon while others took to boats and stand-up paddle boards on one of the city's historic ring of canals.

In Germany, where firefighters were tackling several wildfires including one south of the capital Berlin, the national weather service predicted that the big sweat would continue over the weekend, as the heat moves into central and Eastern Europe. It follows an unusually dry spring in Western Europe, with authorities ordering water to be rationed in northern Italy and parts of France and Germany.

Experts say climate change is already affecting rainfall patterns and evaporation rates across the region, with knock-on effects for agriculture, industry and wildlife.

"Heat waves are starting earlier," said Nullis, from the U.N. weather agency. "They're becoming more frequent and more severe because of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which are at record level. What we're witnessing today is, unfortunately, a foretaste of the future."

She noted that extreme temperatures hit other parts of the globe in recent weeks. Nearly a third of Americans were under some form of heat advisory this week. During months of scorching temperatures, India and Pakistan saw the mercury scrape past 50 C (122 F) in some places.

The current heat wave in Europe started almost a week ago in Spain, where temperatures reached 43 C (109.4F). Spanish authorities hope the weather will begin to cool again Sunday.

The intense temperatures and a lack of rain has helped fuel wildfires across Spain, taxing firefighting capacity.

The heat made itself felt also at a meeting in Madrid, where experts and policymakers gathered to discuss ways to tackle drought and the increasing spread of deserts across the globe. https://www.npr.org/2022/06/18/11060...d-to-north-sea

Little different.......BBQ is a summertime tradition: https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/st...98369562247171

NASA – May 2022 was the 5^th warmest May recorded, tied with 2018. Spring (MAM) 2022 was the 5^th warmest Spring recorded.

Data.GISS

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• Heat waves shattered records on 2 continents before summer began

Two extraordinary heat waves sent temperatures soaring into uncharted territory in Europe and the U.S. prior to the summer solstice, setting new benchmarks for the month of June in several European countries.

Why it matters: The early season extreme heat is a development meteorologists are calling "unsettling" and "unprecedented." These events are a clear warning sign of global warming's growing influence on day-to-day weather.

• Heat waves are deceptively deadly, with heat illnesses striking the most vulnerable among us, from the homeless to the elderly, along with poorer residents who cannot afford air conditioning.
• Such events are particularly dangerous when they occur in late spring or early in the summer, before people are accustomed to the high temperatures.

The big picture: The jet stream, which is a fast-flowing river of air flowing from east to west at high altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, connects the two continental heat waves via a pattern of atmospheric waves. During the past week, the jet stream across Europe and North America have both been dominated by strong ridges of high pressure, also known as heat domes.

• In Europe, the heat wave began weeks ago as hot air built up over north Africa. This air mass eventually made its way northward into Spain. Aided by a highly amplified jet stream setup, the heat then surged into France and on to Central Europe.
• A persistent area of low pressure centered west of Portugal helped draw the hot air northward through its counterclockwise airflow.
• Across the U.S., the jet stream has been contorted aloft like a snake, with the heat dome currently centered in the middle of the country. Temperatures across the Midwest are forecast to reach the triple-digits Tuesday.

Zoom in: Human-caused global warming is altering the background conditions in which extreme heat events occur, and some studies suggest it is also affecting the jet stream itself.

• A warming planet is causing heat waves to become more intense, as well as more frequent and longer lasting.
• Numerous studies have attributed particular extreme heat events to global climate change, including in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.

By the numbers: The heat in Europe and the U.S. has not been your typical summertime hot weather, in fact, the temperatures would be unusual for midsummer, let alone mid-June. National June heat records were set in Switzerland, Poland and the Czech Republic over the weekend.

• >200: Total number of monthly records set or tied in France, along with more than a dozen all-time heat records, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.
• 102.6°F (39.2°C): High temperature in Cottbus, Germany, on Sunday, which was the hottest day ever recorded in that location dating back to 1888.
• 102.2°F (39.0°C): High temperature Sunday in Husinec, Czech Republic, which is now the hottest June temperature on record for the country.
• 110.3°F (43.5°C): High temperature June 18 in San Sebastián, Spain, which was the hottest day ever recorded in that location.
• 109.2°F (42.9°C): High temperature on June 18 at Biarritz, France, for its hottest day on record. This crushed the previous record, from August 2003, by 4°F.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea. (European Union, Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service)

The heat wave has helped elevate water temperatures in the Mediterranean to 9°F above average, depriving coastal areas of southern Europe of heat relief and potentially harming marine life.

Meanwhile... In the U.S., the record temperatures have not been quite as sizzling as they have been in Europe, but the heat has been relentless.

• 101°F: High temperature Monday in Minneapolis, breaking a daily record.
• 2,074: Number of warm temperature records set or tied, including daily highs and lows, in the Lower 48 states during the seven-day period ending on June 17, compared to just 444 cold records during the same period, according to NOAA.
• 22: Number of all-time warm temperature records set or tied during the seven-day period ending on June 17, compared to zero all-time cool temperature records during the same period.

What's next: While Europe catches a break from the heat, the Midwest and South will see temperatures climb to dangerously hot levels this week, before the extreme heat slides westward along the Gulf Coast to Texas. The National Weather Service describes Tuesday's conditions as "stifling heat and humidity" with temperatures 15-25°F above average in some areas.

• With drought in command of Texas and most of the West, it's likely that more record-breaking extreme heat events are in store for the actual summer season.

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• Andrew Dessler - Water availability in the SW (USA) will never return to where it was in the mid-twentieth century because much of the reduction in runoff is due to enhanced evaporation from warmer temperatures. And warmer temps are here to stay (and in fact getting worse). https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/st...11128215535617

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/

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Gavin Schmidt - I’m not an expert in geopolitics, but actions like this, plus the moral morass that buying Russian fossil fuels at this moment entails, seem to make it imperative that Europe wean itself from Russian supply ASAP.: https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/s...72374208954368

Alexander Gabuev - New shots in Russia's energy war with the West have just been fired. @Gazprom has announced cuts of gas flows to Europe through Nord Stream pipeline by 40%, and it blames @Siemens & EU sanctions. Colleagues at @CarnegieRussia saw it coming, and it might get even worse.: https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/statu...92161537888256

JMA - May 2022 was the 8th warmest recorded and Spring (MAM) 2022 was the 5th warmest recorded.

Japan Meteorological Agency

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• Zack Labe - Global climate variability and climate change since the 'pre-industrial era' - running means are computed through May 2022. Notably, the 12-month running mean is going up again. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1542588329777963008

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• Methane emissions are increasing, watchdog finds

Despite global pledge, methane emissions are increasing

Methane emissions are sharply increasing despite a global consensus to crack down on the powerful global warming gas, according to new data from the French methane tracking firm Kayrros.

The new report, based on satellite data, examines some of the biggest energy-producing regions in the world, including the U.S., Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Iran and Turkmenistan.

Why it matters: Methane acts on much shorter timescales than carbon dioxide, and emissions cuts could reduce near-term warming. Its major sources include oil and gas drilling and infrastructure, landfills and agriculture.

A coalition of more than 100 nations is taking part in the voluntary Global Methane Pledge, which looks to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030.

Zoom in: The report released Monday found that major oil, gas and coal-producing basins, including the Permian in the U.S., have seen increases in methane emissions so far this year that exceed an uptick in energy production.

The report found there was a 33% increase in methane emissions from the Permian Basin between the first quarter of 2022 and the previous quarter.

Much of the increase comes from small, privately-owned operators, the report states. These firms tend not to publicly report their methane emissions and have not committed to reducing them, it notes.

What they're saying: “This is an alarm call for the fossil fuel industry," said Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros, in a statement.

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• Extreme weather events can have chain reactions, studies show

Two new studies shed light on the increasing risks the world faces from global warming and how such dangers can escalate in a cascading fashion.

Why it matters: One study published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters warns that certain extremes, such as drought, can exacerbate other climate hazards like heat waves.

Driving the news: When climate change-related extremes interact, they can create cascading and unprecedented outcomes, per the new research.

The Southwest is currently enduring a prolonged, human-induced megadrought, and these conditions are raising the odds for a hotter, drier summer with high wildfire risks.

The big picture: The study shows that extreme drought in the Southwest during June of 2021 led to record heat throughout the region, and exacerbated the dry conditions.

Its authors say similar interactions between drought and heat likely enabled wildfires in New Mexico to grow to record sizes in the past few months.

"The outcome is more than the sum of its parts," study co-author Benjamin Zaitchik, a Johns Hopkins University researcher, said via an email exchange.

"We're seeing a climate change signal of earlier springs, faster drying, and early summer warmth feed back on itself, leading to larger impacts than we would predict taking each hazard on its own."

Context: The threat of compound, unprecedented events, is one reason scientists have been studying differences in risks associated with different levels of global warming.

The world is already about 1.2°C (2.2°F) warmer than preindustrial levels, and is on course for around 3°C (5.4°F) of warming through 2100, barring more stringent emissions cuts.

The second study, published today in the journal Climatic Change, uses projections from 21 computer models.

The researchers determined how much society's climate risk exposure, from effects such as water scarcity to heat stress, would differ by holding warming to 1.5°C, compared to more severe levels.

What they found: The study found that by limiting global warming to the most stringent Paris target, societal risks could be reduced by 85% compared to those associated with about 3.6°C (6.48°F) of warming.

Risks to people would be slashed by 10% to 44% globally if warming is limited to 1.5°C when compared to 2°C, it found.

What they're saying: Rachel Warren, the study's lead author and a researcher at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said via an email exchange that it is not too late to prevent the most dangerous climate change outcomes.

"It is not the time to despair, it’s the time to participate in an exciting decade of transformation," Warren said.

The study on ties between the Southwestern megadrought and extreme heat found that unusually dry conditions boosted regional temperatures in June 2021 by up to 4°F. The greatest difference occurred in forested landscapes, rather than the open desert.

Zoom in: Compound events, in which one extreme feeds into another, are recipes for record-shattering outcomes.

State of play: According to co-author Benjamin Zaitchik of Johns Hopkins University, the drought-heat nexus was on display again this spring when New Mexico's largest fire on record forced thousands to evacuate.

"Cascading dry-hot extremes could be particularly pronounced in ecologically sensitive and fire-prone forests," Zaitchik said via email.

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Extreme weather events.

• Heat waves topple monthly, all-time records from Japan to Italy

Monthly and all-time records have been shattered in at least a half-dozen countries, from Europe to Asia, during the past week. None of these events have been typical for June, either.

Driving the news: Japan, Italy, Norway, Iran and Finland are a few of the latest nations to see heat records fall like dominoes in an extraordinary month.

Why it matters: Studies show that as the climate warms, the frequency of heat waves dramatically increases, as do the severity and longevity of such events.

• Research into the contributors to individual heat waves, such as last year's deadly June Pacific Northwest event, has determined that some would have been "virtually impossible" without added amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• Extreme heat is deadly, ranking as the top weather-related killer in the U.S. in a typical year. It can also stress power grids, especially in countries suffering drought as well as struggling with a global energy crunch in the wake of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

State of play: Rome tied its all-time hottest temperature record and set a June milestone on Tuesday, with a reading of 105.4°F. Florence and Naples also set monthly records this week, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.

• Italy is also enduring a severe drought, prompting water conservation measures in some areas. As in the U.S. Southwest, the drought may be allowing temperatures to spike even higher than they typically would.

The big picture: The Northern Hemisphere is seeing record heat in multiple places simultaneously during an atypical month for it. Most all-time heat records date to July or August.

• With a heat dome in place over parts of Europe and low pressure to the west, ultra-hot air from Africa has been pulled north-northeast, all the way to the Arctic.
• Tromsø, Norway, which is above the Arctic Circle, hit 86°F on June 28. This was a monthly record and came within a half-degree of an all-time record for that location.
• Mehamn, Norway, also in the Arctic at the far northern tip of the country, reached 87.4°F on Wednesday, obliterating the previous June record of 77.7°F.

Zoom in: Japan is in the grips of one of its worst heat waves on record, period, let alone in June. The heat is noteworthy both for its intensity and persistence.

• According to NHK meteorologist Sayaka Mori, 16% of the country had its hottest June day on record Thursday, and 15% on Wednesday. Japan saw its first-ever readings of 104°F (40°C) in June, Mori tweeted.
• At least 550 June record highs have been set in six days. Tokyo set a record for the most consecutive days at or above 95°F, Mori said via Twitter, with five such days, and the country could set its hottest temperature on record today or tomorrow.
• The Washington Post reports that at least 5,000 people have been hospitalized due to the hot weather, and millions are being told to conserve power due to the heat-related surge in demand.

• "Tokyo's metropolitan government staff have been advised to work in the dark," per the Post. "In supermarkets freezers across the country, lights were switched off, and at homeware stores electrical appliances were unplugged."

The bottom line: Heat waves are a typical summer hazard, but climate change is making them, along with other extreme weather events, more dangerous, capricious and fearsome.

• And July starts tomorrow.

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/30/hea...-japan-records

Copernicus – June 2022 was the 3^rd warmest June recorded

Globally, June 2022 was:

• 0.31°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for June
• the third warmest June on record
• more than 0.05°C cooler than the warmest Junes, which were in 2019 and 2020

Copernicus

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Extreme weather news……..

• Spain and Portugal suffering driest climate for 1,200 years, research shows

Spain and Portugal are suffering their driest climate for at least 1,200 years, according to research, with severe implications for both food production and tourism.

Most rain on the Iberian peninsula falls in winter as wet, low-pressure systems blow in from the Atlantic. But a high-pressure system off the coast, called the Azores high, can block the wet weather fronts.

The researchers found that winters featuring “extremely large” Azores highs have increased dramatically from one winter in 10 before 1850 to one in four since 1980. These extremes also push the wet weather northwards, making downpours in the northern UK and Scandinavia more likely.

The scientists said the more frequent large Azores highs could only have been caused by the climate crisis, caused by humanity’s carbon emissions.

“The number of extremely large Azores highs in the last 100 years is really unprecedented when you look at the previous 1,000 years,” said Dr Caroline Ummenhofer, at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the US, and part of the research team.

“That has big implications because an extremely large Azores high means relatively dry conditions for the Iberian peninsula and the Mediterranean,” she said. “We could also conclusively link this increase to anthropogenic emissions.”

The Iberian peninsula has been hit by increasing heatwaves and droughts in recent years and this year May was the hottest on record in Spain. Forest fires that killed dozens of people in the region in 2017 followed a heatwave made 10 times more likely by the climate crisis, while the Tagus River, the longest in the region, is at risk of drying up completely, according to environmentalists.

The new research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, analysed weather data stretching back to 1850 and computer models replicating the climate back to AD850. It found that, before 1850 and the start of significant human greenhouse gas emissions, extremely large Azores highs occurred once every 10 years on average.

From 1850 to 1980, the frequency was once every seven years, but after 1980 this rose to every four years. Data showed that extremely large Azores highs slash average monthly rainfall in winter by about a third. Further data from chemical analysis of stalagmites in caves in Portugal show that low rainfall correlates closely with large Azores highs.

The computer simulations of the climate of the past millennium cover a period up to 2005. But other studies covering later years are consistent with new findings and the Azores high is expected to continue to expand, further increasing drought on the Iberian peninsula, until global carbon emissions are cut to net zero.

“[Our findings] have big implications for the water resources that are available for agriculture and other water intensive industries or for tourism,” said Ummenhofer. “It doesn’t bode well.” Spain was the second most popular country for overseas tourists in 2019, hosting 84 million visitors.

Spain also is the world’s biggest producer of olives and a major source of grapes, oranges, tomatoes and other produce. But rainfall has been declining by 5-10mm a year since 1950, with a further 10-20% drop in winter rains anticipated by the end of the century.

Other research has projected a 30% decline in olive production in southern Spain production by 2100 and a fall in grape-growing regions across the Iberian peninsula of 25% to 99% by 2050 due to severe water shortages. Research in 2021 also linked the Azores high to the summer monsoon in India.

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• Big Shock in Big Bend - The Rio Grande Dries Up

Visitors to the Big Bend country in May noticed a conspicuous absence: the Rio Grande, whose great arching pathway gives this region its name.

Where cool water used to flow, a dry, cracking riverbed now snakes through some of Texas’ most iconic landscapes.

Near Santa Elena Canyon, a river gage measured 0 cubic feet per second for the first time on record on April 28, and it stayed that way for most of the next month.

It’s a grim warning sign for the lower reaches of the Rio Grande, which provide water to millions of acres of crops and to many people in Texas and Mexico. The river has dried up in other spots off and on for decades now, battered by drought and overuse, but never in these places. No one alive has seen the river as it looks today.

“The scope of this is significantly more widespread than I have ever seen,” said Raymond Skiles, a retired park ranger who spent 31 years at Big Bend National Park and grew up in the region.

Today, more than 100 miles of Rio Grande riverbed are dry or hold stagnant water. At Santa Elena Canyon, one of the park’s most popular sights, visitors have gawked at the striking absence of water.

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• Heat domes spike in Europe as climate change helps shift weather patterns

A major new study explains why Western Europe has suffered through a series of extreme heat waves that are outpacing even the planet's overall warming trend.

Driving the news: The study points to stubborn changes in atmospheric circulation for much of the blame.

Why it matters: Heat waves are deadly. Increases in their frequency and intensity — already taking place due to global warming — raise these risks.

• But Western Europe has seen a sharp spike in heat waves during the past 42 years, with such events increasing three to four times faster than other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
• Last week, areas from Italy to Norway saw monthly and all-time record high temperatures, which contributed to a deadly glacial avalanche in the Dolomite Mountains.

Zoom in: The new study, published in Nature Communications, finds that the upward trends in Western European heat waves are tied to the flow of air in the jet stream in and around the region.

• Specifically, the researchers found that a particular weather pattern, featuring two branches of fast-moving corridors of air across Eurasia, is most closely associated with Western European heat waves.
• These weather patterns favor weaker upper-level winds over Western Europe, and encourage long-lasting, blocking high-pressure areas, also known as heat domes.
• Increasingly persistent double jet stream patterns and their associated heat domes can explain "almost all of the accelerated trend" in heat waves across Western Europe, the study states.

The big picture: Importantly, the study ties the persistence of particular jet stream patterns and related heat domes to the rapidly warming land temperatures in the Arctic, and the growing contrast between land and ocean temperatures there.

• Such thermal gradients can influence weather patterns.
• The research also fits with prior studies of how simultaneous extreme heat events can develop in different parts of the world as climate change worsens.

Yes, but: The study cautions that there are still uncertainties regarding what is causing the increase in the occurrence and persistence of these particular weather patterns, noting that climate models may not be simulating them accurately.

What they're saying: "Climate models tend to underestimate extreme weather risks," said study co-author Kai Kornhuber of Columbia University, in a statement. "Projections of extreme heat under continued greenhouse gas emissions might be too conservative."

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• Climate change: Extreme weather events slam globe from Italy to Australia

A deadly glacial avalanche in Italy, the fourth major flood in Sydney since March, record Alaskan wildfires and another U.S. heat wave — extreme weather events tied to human-caused global warming are slamming disparate parts of the planet. The results, so far, have been deadly and increasingly costly.

Driving the news: Beginning with Europe, on July 3, a heat wave helped trigger the sudden detachment of a massive chunk of the Marmolada glacier in the Italian Alps. The resulting ice avalanche traveled downhill at speeds of up to 200 mph, according to experts.

• The ice avalanche killed at least 7, with several people still missing.
• The day before the disaster, a record high of 50°F was reportedly set at the 11,000-foot summit, accompanied by rapid snowmelt.
• This occurred amid widespread glacial melt worldwide due to climate change.
• The heat wave that preceded this unusual event set monthly and all-time temperature records in Italy along with several other European countries.

In Alaska, 17,774 lightning strikes were detected across the state from July 2 to 4, the highest ever total recorded in a 48-hour period since such monitoring began there in 2013.

• These strikes touched off more wildfires in a season already on track to be one of the state's worst, with 2.3 million acres burned to date amid unusually hot, dry conditions.

• One wildfire is burning close enough to Clear Space Force Station to prompt state officials to place the base in "set" mode, ready to evacuate if necessary. The station is home to a sophisticated ballistic missile detection radar.
• According to Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, wildfires burned the second-largest acreage on record during the month of June, with 1.84 million acres burned.
• One unusual aspect of the fires has been their prevalence in southwestern parts of the state, and the size of the blazes in tundra ecosystems.
• The wildfires have covered much of the state in hazardous smoke, with air quality in Fairbanks and smaller communities reaching levels more commonly seen in India and China.

Context: Alaska has been unusually warm and dry in recent months, and there is a heat wave affecting northwestern Canada, helping to jump-start the wildfire season there too.

• Climate studies show that Alaska, which is the fastest-warming state in the U.S., is likely to see larger, more frequent and intense wildfires as a result of human-caused global warming.
• The trend toward more lightning barrages like the one observed this weekend is also tied to climate shifts, as hotter air masses are more unstable, allowing thunderstorms to form.

In Australia, about 50,000 Sydney residents were under evacuation orders from major flooding.

• Some locations saw up to 31.5 inches of rain during the weekend, with 8 inches in 24 hours in parts of Sydney, per Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
• Studies show global warming is intensifying extreme precipitation events worldwide and causing them to be more frequent. This is occurring since warmer air can hold more moisture, which can lead to heavier downpours, and even heavier snows, when storms tap into these plumes of water vapor.

What's next: A dangerous heat wave is building across the Central U.S., with heat warnings up for 75 million from Texas to Iowa for widespread highs in the 100s through at least Wednesday. Nashville, Tennessee, Kansas City, Missouri, and Chicago are all in the path of this heat wave.

Yes, but: This isn't the end of the heat. An expansive area of high pressure, also referred to as a powerful heat dome, is likely to develop and become entrenched over parts of the Plains and the West during the second half of the week, with highs in the 90s and 100s stretching from Phoenix to Montana.

• Texas, parts of which have set all-time heat records so far this summer amid drought conditions, is likely to set still more record highs well into the triple-digits, according to National Weather Service forecasts.

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/05/cli...stralia-alaska

NOAA – June 2022 was the 6^th warmest June recorded and January – June 2022 was the 6^th warmest January – June recorded.

National Centers for Environmental Information

____________

Prof Richard Betts - "It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s

...with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver of these changes"

- IPCC

https://twitter.com/richardabetts/st...83393357504513

Met Office - Increased frequency, duration, & intensity of extreme heat events over recent decades can be attributed to human activity.

Following the extension of our extreme heat warning, @markpmcc explains the link between the heat this weekend & #climatechange in our latest news release.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status...64455849574402

___________

Extreme weather.

Europe faces deadly, record-breaking heat wave

Highlights

By the numbers: Areas of southern, central and eastern England will see temperatures rise past 95 degrees Fahrenheit, with some parts possibly exceeding 104 degrees, according to a statement from the U.K. Met Office.

The city of Lousã, Portugal, reached an all-time record on Wednesday, spiking to 115.34 degrees, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.

Santarem, Portugal, on Wednesday recorded 115.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Portuguese cities of Torres Vedras, Lisboa Tapada da Ajuda and Rio Maior established new July records, climbing to 109.9 degrees, 106.5 degrees, and 108.5 degrees, respectively.

Two cities in Spain broke all-time records on Wednesday, with the city of Soria reaching 101.7 Fahrenheit and Zamora coming in at 106 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Herrera.

The same day, Almonte, Spain, hit 114.1 degrees Fahrenheit while the city of Olivenza recorded 113.7 degrees Fahrenheit and Badajoz peaked at 113.4 Fahrenheit.

Ourense, Spain, reached a new all-time record on Tuesday at 109.9 degrees Fahrenheit, as did the airport in León, Spain, which climbed to 98.1 degrees, per Météo-France.

Seville, Spain, has recorded temperatures of at least 105 degrees seven days in a row, and reached 111 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday, the Post reported.

Worth noting: Studies show that as the climate warms, the frequency of heat waves dramatically increase — as does the severity and longevity of such events, per Axios'

Studies show that heat waves in Europe and elsewhere are becoming more frequent, severe and long-lasting due to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.

____________

Just for fun.

Originally Posted by David48atTD

Australia could adopt and obtain 2050 targets tomorrow and it would do diddly squat for influencing/reducing Climate Change.

Nope

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/d...R6_WGI_SPM.pdf

An interesting article that discusses other influences on earths' climate for those bored with endless graphs of atmospheric CO2. It does not negate the importance of CO2 but shows there are other factors beyond our control.

Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Before the page flips........

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

An interesting article that discusses other influences on earths' climate for those bored with endless graphs of atmospheric CO2. It does not negate the importance of CO2 but shows there are other factors beyond our control.

Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Nope.

Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can't Explain Earth's Current Warming

So how do we know Milankovitch cycles aren’t to blame?

First, Milankovitch cycles operate on long time scales, ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. In contrast, Earth’s current warming has taken place over time scales of decades to centuries. Over the last 150 years, Milankovitch cycles have not changed the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth very much. In fact, NASA satellite observations show that over the last 40 years, solar radiation has actually decreased somewhat.

During past glacial cycles, the concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere fluctuated from about 180 parts per million (ppm) to 280 ppm as part of Milankovitch cycle-driven changes to Earth’s climate. These fluctuations provided an important feedback to the total change in Earth’s climate that took place during those cycles.

Today, however, it’s the direct input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that’s responsible for changing Earth’s atmospheric composition over the last century, rather than climate feedbacks from the ocean or land caused by Milankovitch cycles.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Age, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere has increased 47 percent, from about 280 ppm to 412 ppm. In just the past 20 years alone, carbon dioxide is up 11 percent.

Since 1750, the warming driven by greenhouse gases coming from the human burning of fossil fuels is over 50 times greater than the slight extra warming coming from the Sun itself over that same time interval. If Earth’s current warming was due to the Sun, scientists say we should expect temperatures in both the lower atmosphere (troposphere) and the next layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere, to warm. Instead, observations from balloons and satellites show Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere have warmed but the stratosphere has cooled.

Finally, Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). If there were no human influences on climate, scientists say Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milankovitch cycles predict our planet should be cooling, not warming, continuing a long-term cooling trend that began 6,000 years ago.