Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Yes but examination of ice bores allows them to get hard historical data going back thousands of years, so they know what the CO2 levels have been over that period, and can tie it to historical events such as volcanoes.

Not quite sure what your point about mining is though. How is that relevant, other than as another example of profit going before people?

The mining point demonstrates that, for generations, humanity has taken natural resources for granted, and damn the consequences of such exploitation.
Now all and sundry are on the backs of the Chinese et al, for irresponsible coal mining. Hypocritical set of standards applied by the west. The USA reducing mountains to sea level in order to exploit coal. No standards at all.
The least the climate change lobby could do is to apply standards consistently.

Originally Posted by Switch

The mining point demonstrates that, for generations, humanity has taken natural resources for granted, and damn the consequences of such exploitation.
Now all and sundry are on the backs of the Chinese et al, for irresponsible coal mining. Hypocritical set of standards applied by the west. The USA reducing mountains to sea level in order to exploit coal. No standards at all.
The least the climate change lobby could do is to apply standards consistently.

The climate change lobby do apply standards consistently.

However governments are not so reliable.

I remain comfortably perched on the fence.

Climate aberration over a twenty five year period statistically speaking means pretty much didly squat.

Originally Posted by russellsimpson

I remain comfortably perched on the fence.

Climate aberration over a twenty five year period statistically speaking means pretty much didly squat.

Your post exemplifies the need for much greater knowledge and understanding of the subject.
How can someone living in Canada be unaware of the climate, and lacking any kind education in such matters.

Ignorance is not an acceptable excuse, and neither is spending all your waking hours masturbating.

Originally Posted by russellsimpson

I remain comfortably perched on the fence.

Climate aberration over a twenty five year period statistically speaking means pretty much didly squat.

Being on the fence is still a win for the efforts of those paid to deliberately muddy the waters.

Originally Posted by russellsimpson

I remain comfortably perched on the fence.

Climate aberration over a twenty five year period statistically speaking means pretty much didly squat.

In the 2017 issue of NOAA’s Arctic Report Card, scientists report on a body of paleoclimate research that shows that the extent and rate of sea ice decline in the Arctic is unprecedented over at least the past 1,500 years.



This time series shows the Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers over the past roughly 1,500 years. Scientists use climate proxies like sediment/ice cores, tree rings, and fossilized shells of ocean creatures to extend the sea ice extent records back in time. These records show that while there have been several periods over the past 1,450 years when sea ice extents expanded and contracted, the decrease during the modern era is unrivaled. And just as importantly, it is beyond the range of natural variability, implying a human component to the drastic decrease observed in the records.
The minimum sea ice extent, which occurs each summer, is influenced by the atmospheric circulation, air temperature, and variations in the amount of warm water that flows into the Arctic. Since 1900, waters that enter the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait have increased by 2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit). Meanwhile, proxy records show that the current warming trend in surface air temperatures has not been observed in the Arctic over at least the last 2,000 years.
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has a history much longer than the last 2,000 years. It likely first formed about 47 million years ago. However, perennial—year round—sea ice at the North Pole first occurred 14-18 million years ago. A number of paleoclimate studies have shown that perennial sea ice has existed in the central Arctic for much of the last 350,000 years, with significant regional variability. This variability highlights the importance of expanding the number of paleoclimate reconstructions to better predict which regions are most susceptible to further sea ice loss.
Throughout geologic times, the amount of sea ice increased and decreased along with changes in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the ice-age climate cycles. In fact, there were intermittent periods of ice-free conditions in the past 350,000 years up until the “modern” era of sea ice conditions began about 5,000 years ago.
These ice-free periods usually coincided with times when solar energy reaching the Arctic was at its largest due to small variations in the shape of Earth’s orbit and its axis of rotation. However, since the latter half of the Holocene epoch (about 5,000 years ago), some amount of year-round Arctic sea ice cover has been present. But as we move through the rest of the century, some climate model projections suggest that ice-free Arctic summers will return, possibly as early as 2030, but very likely before 2100.
The Arctic plays a vital role in our planet’s climate and can serve as a canary in a coalmine for ongoing impacts from human-caused climate change. Understanding how the Arctic is going to change in the future, including changes in sea ice and impacts on Arctic ecosystems, requires a continued effort to develop additional reconstructions like the one above to help scientists better grasp what makes the Arctic Ocean tick.

https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ast-1500-years

Copernicus - November 2017

November 2017 extended the spell of exceptional global warmth that has now lasted since mid-2015. It was:

· 0.45°C warmer than the average November from 1981-2010;
· the third warmest November on record;
· 0.16°C cooler than the warmest November, which occurred in 2016.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/resour...ature-analysis

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JMA – November 2017

The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in November 2017 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.30°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.64°C above the 20th century average), and was the 3rd warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.72°C per century.

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)
1st. 2015 (+0.54°C), 2nd. 2013 (+0.31°C), 3rd. 2017 (+0.30°C), 4th. 2016 (+0.28°C), 5th. 2001 (+0.26°C): Global Average Surface Temperature Anomalies

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NASA – November 2017 2^nd warmest November recorded: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

NASA 2017
· December (2016), January, February – 2^nd warmest recorded
· March, April, May – 2^nd warmest recorded
· June, July, August – 2^nd warmest recorded
· September, October, November – 3^rd warmest recorded

but warmest non-El Niño year recorded: https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/s...10220413292544

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NOAA – November 2017 was the 5^th warmest November recorded: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201711

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Arctic permafrost thawing faster than ever, US climate study finds

Permafrost in the Arctic is thawing faster than ever, according to a new US government report that also found Arctic seawater is warming and sea ice is melting at the fastest pace in 1,500 years.

The annual report released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed slightly less warming in many measurements than a record hot 2016. But scientists remain concerned because the far northern region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe and has reached a level of warming that’s unprecedented in modern times.

“2017 continued to show us we are on this deepening trend where the Arctic is a very different place than it was even a decade ago,” said Jeremy Mathis, head of NOAA’s Arctic research program and co-author of the 93-page report.

“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic; it affects the rest of the planet,” said acting NOAA chief Timothy Gallaudet. “The Arctic has huge influence on the world at large.”

New research looking into the Arctic’s past using ice cores, fossils, corals and shells as stand-ins for temperature measurements show that Arctic ocean temperatures are rising and sea ice levels are falling at rates not seen in the 1,500 years. And those dramatic changes coincide with the large increase in carbon dioxide levels in the air, the report said.: https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-change-report

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Analysis: Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans

the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report.

Carbon Brief’s analysis finds that:

· Since 1850, almost all the long-term warming can be explained by greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities.
· If greenhouse gas emissions alone were warming the planet, we would expect to see about a third more warming than has actually occurred. They are offset by cooling from human-produced atmospheric aerosols.
· Aerosols are projected to decline significantly by 2100, bringing total warming from all factors closer to warming from greenhouse gases alone.
· Natural variability in the Earth’s climate is unlikely to play a major role in long-term warming.

In its 2013 fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated in its summary for policymakers that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature” from 1951 to 2010 was caused by human activity. By “extremely likely”, it meant that there was between a 95% and 100% probability that more than half of modern warming was due to humans.

This somewhat convoluted statement has been often misinterpreted as implying that the human responsibility for modern warming lies somewhere between 50% and 100%. In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years.

Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that between 93% to 123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities.

These conclusions have led to some confusion as to how more than 100% of observed warming could be attributable to human activity. A human contribution of greater than 100% is possible because natural climate change associated with volcanoes and solar activity would most likely have resulted in a slight cooling over the past 50 years, offsetting some of the warming associated with human activities.: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...ampaign=buffer

It’s closer to 110%: IPCC attribution statements

Global warming having a disastrous affect on the Sahara, covered in snow for only the third time in 40 years.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Venezuela used to have five glaciers. Today, only one remains. The last glacier in Venezuela, the Humboldt glacier, is about to disappear.

So typical of your CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS.

So when, Landreth of the hillary hardon, did the other 4 melt away as the world warms up?

Gonna be interesting when Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, BP, and Royal Dutch Shell all say "Ok, go spin. We're exporting all oil and gas now and not selling you muppets a drop".

Originally Posted by pseudolus

So typical of your CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS.

So when, Landreth of the hillary hardon, did the other 4 melt away as the world warms up?

Between 2003 and 2017. The disappearance of the Venezuelan glaciers is well documented.

Originally Posted by DrB0b

Between 2003 and 2017. The disappearance of the Venezuelan glaciers is well documented.

During the Merida glaciation in the Pleistocene epoch, the glaciated area had a maximum extent of 600 km2 and covered mountains with a height of at least 3,000 m. At the end of the glaciation, the area covered by the glaciers progressively shrank, and before the start of the Little Ice Age they had possibly all disappeared.[citation needed]

It is estimated that in 1910 the area covered by glaciers was around 10 km2, divided in two large areas, one embracing Picos Bolívar, Espejo and Concha and the other embracing Picos Humboldt and Bonpland. Possibly a small glaciated area covered the northwest side of Pico El Toro.[5]


Aerial pictures taken in 1952 show the glaciated area had already shrunk to 0.9 km2 for the Picos Bolívar, Espejo and Concha and to 2.0 km2 for the Picos Humboldt and Bonpland.


In 2003 almost all the glaciers of the area had disappeared, with the exception of a two small glaciated areas (7.48 Ha on Pico Bolívar and 35.81 Ha on Pico Humboldt). It is forecast that at the current rate Venezuela will lose by 2020 all its glaciers, making it the first Andean country without any glaciated area.

LOL. yeah alright. Best stretch the hockey stick graph a bit further then Eh?

Whatever.

2017 one of hottest in decades

China experienced its third-highest average temperatures in more than six decades last year as greenhouse gas emissions in the country kept increasing, according to the China Meteorological Administration.


The average temperature through 2017 was about 10.4 C, more than 0.8 C above the yearly average and the third highest since 1951, according to China Climate Bulletin, which was published by the administration on Monday.


Monitoring stations across the country observed 12.1 days with temperatures above 35 C, 4.4 days more than average and 1.4 days more than 2016, said the bulletin.


It also said 437 monitoring stations, or 71 percent of the total, across the country observed extreme hot weather, up by 37 percent from 2016.


Song Lianchun, chief of the National Climate Center, said China is sensitive to global warming and it's a scientific conclusion that the increasing average temperature in the country is a result of the greenhouse effect.


China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, which was released by the administration on the same day, shows that the annual average carbon dioxide concentrations at the three regional stations increased to 413.7 parts per million in Heilongjiang province, 417.7 ppm in Beijing and 410.3 ppm in Zhejiang province.


The global average stood at 403.3 ppm in 2016.


Satellite monitoring shows that global average carbon dioxide concentrations in 2016 increased by 3.2 ppm year-on-year from 2015, while in China it was up by 3.7 ppm.


"Greenhouse gas concentrations in different regions in the country are related to the levels of economic development," Fang Shuangxi, an official with the administration, said at a news conference on Monday.


"Though carbon dioxide concentrations in the three regional stations in China were higher than the global average, the growth rate of the concentrations in these regions have been declining," he added.


He said the slowing growth rate shows the achievement China has made in controlling greenhouse gas emissions, though it still needs data from the National Development and Reform Commission to confirm the conclusion.

2017 one of hottest in decades - Chinadaily.com.cn

Yeah but the eruption in PNG will do a little to aid the cooling.

Originally Posted by pseudolus

LOL. yeah alright. Best stretch the hockey stick graph a bit further then Eh?

There you go spewing debunked right wing tin foil conspiracy theories. You really are a right wing shill. We all can see it so you may as well just admit it.

LOL Oh snubbings, quite the reverse. You are on Big Oils side. After all, your spiritual leader Maurice Strong was Rockefeller's man. It's about Control, not oil or climate change you silly billy.

Originally Posted by pseudolus

It's about Control, not oil or climate change you silly billy.

What a crock of shit.

2017: warmest year on record without El Niño

Provisional figures for global average near-surface temperatures confirm that last year, 2017, was the warmest year on record without the influence of warming from El Niño.

When viewed alongside 2015 and 2016 – both of which were dominated by a significant El Niño – last year was the second or third warmest year for annual global temperatures since 1850.

Scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit produce the HadCRUT4 dataset, which is used to estimate global temperature.

The HadCRUT4 global temperature series shows that 2017 was 0.99±0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, taken as the average over the period 1850-1900, and 0.38±0.1 °C above the 1981-2010 average. 2017 is nominally the third warmest year in the HadCRUT4 series. Figures from other global centres place 2017 as second or third warmest.: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/re...e-announcement - https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/statu...17409848967169