Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

NOAA – August 2022 was the 6^th warmest recorded

Summer (JJA) was the 5^th warmest Summer recorded

2022 year to date is the 6^th warmest recorded

National Centers for Environmental Information

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• Worse than 2003: Swiss glaciers are melting more than ever before

2022 was a disastrous year for Swiss glaciers: all ice melt records were smashed by the great dearth of snow in winter and continuous heatwaves in summer. More than 6 percent of the ice volume was lost, reports the Cryospheric Commission (CC) of the Swiss Academy of Sciences.

In the past year, more than 6 metres of ice have melted on the Konkordiaplatz in the heart of the Great Aletsch Glacier (Valais).

Melt rates have far exceeded the previous records from the hot summer of 2003: the glaciers have lost around 3 cubic kilometres of ice in 2022; more than 6 percent of the remaining volume. By way of comparison, up to now, years with an ice loss of 2 percent have been described as “extreme”. The loss was particularly dramatic for small glaciers. The Pizol Glacier in the canton of St. Gallen, Vadret dal Corvatsch in Grisons and the Schwarzbachfirn in Uri have practically disappeared – measurements were discontinued. But the trend also reveals how important glaciers are to the water and energy supply in hot, dry years. The ice melt in July and August alone would have provided enough water to fill all the reservoirs in the Swiss Alps from scratch.

In the Engadine and southern Valais, a 4- to 6-metre-thick layer of ice at 3000 metres above sea level vanished. In some cases, this was more than double the previous maximum. Significant losses were recorded even at the very highest measuring points (e.g., the Jungfraujoch). The average loss of ice depth across all regions is around 3 metres, sometimes reaching figures exceeding 4 metres (e.g., the Gries Glacier in Valais and Ghiacciaio de Basòdino in Ticino). Observations show that many glacier tongues are disintegrating and patches of rock are rising out of the thin ice in the middle of glaciers. These processes are further accelerating the decline.

Snow in 2021/22 almost exclusively in the early winter

There was prior warning of these events: the snow cover in the Alps was light to a degree rarely experienced in the past, particularly in the south of Switzerland. Added to this was the large volume of dust from the Sahara between March and May. The contaminated snow absorbed more solar energy and melted faster. As a result, the glaciers had already lost their protective coating of snow by the early summer. The continuous and sometimes tremendous heat between May and early September therefore decimated the glacial ice.

For most glaciers, snow cover arrived at the beginning of November in the winter of 2021/22, more or less in line with the norm. However, it vanished at all altitudes around one month earlier than usual. The series of snow measurements on the Weissfluhjoch (Grisons, 2540 m), which goes back more than 80 years, revealed the second earliest date ever for the snow melt (6 June). The hot, sunny, cloudless summer months beat the records. For example, the temperature remained above freezing point on 41 percent of all days between June and August at the Jungfraujoch MeteoSchweiz weather station (Valais (south side), 3571 m). The average is 25 percent. The summer was also extremely dry. Up to mid-September, only a few centimetres of new snow fell in the high mountains.

Last winter produced very little snow in general, particularly on the Swiss plateau and in Southern Switzerland. Basel and Lucerne recorded no snow at all. Snow was particularly scant on the southern slopes of the Alps, especially in Ticino and the Simplon area. In many areas, almost no snowfall occurred below the 1600 m level. At several measuring stations in Ticino, the average depth of snow recorded was the lowest since measurements began in 1959. Above 2000 m, the average depth of snow on the southern slopes of the Alps was only around half the usual level. On the northern slopes and in the Engadine, it was around 70 to 100 percent of the normal long-term figures (1991-2020).

Schweizer Gletscher | Gletschermessnetz Schweiz GLAMOS

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• Study: Methane emissions may be five times higher than previously thought

Global emissions of methane from existing gas infrastructure may be up to five times higher than had been believed, a new study has found.

Existing measures to burn off the powerful greenhouse gas — which is dozens of times more potent than carbon dioxide — allow far more to slip by than had been believed, according to the paper published on Thursday in Science.

A bipartisan bill put forth on Wednesday by Reps. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) and Sean Casten (D-Ill.) seeks to tackle the problem. The Methane Emissions Mitigation Research and Development Act “focuses our best and brightest at the Department of Energy on methane emissions, one of the most potent greenhouse gasses,” Meijer said in a statement.

“It also provides our local governments and private industries with the necessary tools to mitigate methane emissions and leaks,” he added.

Among these tools are the suite of leak detection and repair (LDAR) technologies, which include the satellite tools that the Science team used to quantify the imperfect nature of venting and flaring, common features of natural gas drilling.

At times or in areas where there isn’t sufficient pipeline or storage for the quantities of natural gas being produced — sometimes as a byproduct of more lucrative oil — drilling operators “flare,” or burn off, the methane.

It had long been believed that flaring converts all the methane into water vapor and relatively inert carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that, while it still heats the climate, is far less potent.

But this is an “overly optimistic view” of flaring, which leaves far more methane behind than had been believed, according to a companion essay in Science.

In fact, studies of three major natural gas basins — the Eagle Ford and Permian in Texas, and the Bakken of North Dakota — found that only 91 percent of the methane is consumed. That’s in part because flares are often malfunctioning or simply unlit — allowing raw methane to vent into the atmosphere.

If these flares operated properly at even 98 percent efficiency, they would cut emissions enough to be the equivalent of removing nearly 3 million cars from the road, the Science team found.

Enough gas was flared in 2021 to make up about two-thirds of current EU demand — but most oil and gas producers don’t directly check or report how efficiently that gas was burned off.

Complete combustion of natural gas at flare sites would also spare nearby communities from potentially toxic impacts. About half a million people live within three miles of flare sites in these three basins — which puts them at direct risk from the potentially toxic organic compounds released if those flares malfunction.

Such failures to properly combust waste gas could “expose front-line communities to a cocktail of co-pollutants that present risks of acute and/or chronic health impacts,” the team wrote in a statement.

These leaks are a major problem for both U.S. emission goals and for the attempt of gas producers to brand themselves as a low-carbon bridge fuel — or a feedstock for new-model fuels like blue hydrogen, a still largely frontier product fabricated from gas from which the carbon has been captured and stored.

The Science study builds on a 2021 paper in Environmental Research Letters that found that about 60 percent of total methane emissions from the Permian Basin — a region that produces about 18 percent of U.S. natural gas — came from 1,000 “super emitter” wells.

And the International Energy Agency in 2020 estimated global flaring efficiency at about 92 percent — approximately what the Science team just confirmed for the United States.

The solution, according to the Science team, is similar to the one Casten and Meijer are asking for: better technology. “Together, satellites, surface sensors, and models can provide more-accurate assessments of the role that improved flaring efficiency plays in overall O&G emissions and future mitigation efforts,” the researchers wrote in the companion essay.

But they cautioned that fixing the problem would require more than simply new technology, but would also require “further improvements in monitoring, regulations, and industry practices.”

The time for taking action on this is now, Casten wrote in a statement.

“2021 saw the highest annual growth rate for methane emissions to date,” he said. “This problem is not slowing down and will only increase without action.

Natural gas flaring destroys less methane tha | EurekAlert!

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• Fed announces pilot program on climate risk with six major banks

The Federal Reserve Board will enlist six major U.S. banks in a pilot climate risk analysis program, officials announced Thursday.

Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo will participate in the pilot as part of the Federal Reserve’s attempt to determine the financial risk associated with natural disasters and climate change. The exercise will have no consequences to capital, and while data from its findings will be published, none of the banks will be identified by name.

The analysis, set to begin in 2023, will be distinct from the “stress tests” the central bank uses to determine whether financial institutions have sufficient capital to loan during major recessions, according to the announcement.

“The climate scenario analysis exercise, on the other hand, is exploratory in nature and does not have capital consequences. By considering a range of possible future climate pathways and associated economic and financial developments, scenario analysis can assist firms and supervisors in understanding how climate-related financial risks may manifest and differ from historical experience,” the Fed board said in its announcement.

The announcement was expected, with Fed Vice Chairman of Supervision Michael Barr announcing the pilot exercise September 7.

“The Federal Reserve is working to understand how climate change may pose risks to individual banks and to the financial system,” Barr said in a speech at the Brookings Institution. “The Federal Reserve’s mandate in this area is important, but narrow, focused on our supervisory responsibilities and our role in promoting a safe and stable financial system.”

Although international financial institutions are in broad agreement on the need for such analysis, it has caught the ire of congressional Republicans, who have accused the Fed of exceeding its mandate.

Earlier this year, the Biden administration withdrew the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin as vice chairwoman for banking supervision at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after her views on climate policy led Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to decline to back her.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...x-major-banks/

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Extra.

New Chevron Ad

JMA – August 2022 was the 4^th warmest August recorded

Summer (JJA) 2022 was the 3^rd warmest summer recorded

Tokyo Climate Center Home Page

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Ed Hawkins - Three-quarters of the way through the year, and 2022 is on track to be the warmest year for Central England in records dating back to 1772.

Not guaranteed, but a high chance of being warmer than the current record year, 2014. https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/statu...41365093208068

Copernicus – September 2022 tied with 2016 to be the 4^th warmest September on record

Copernicus

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• Berkeley Earth – Summer (JJA) 2022 was the warmest summer recorded

Berkeley Earth

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• Colin McCarthy - The consequences of the worst heatwave ever recorded on Earth.

China just recorded its hottest summer on record, over 0.5°C (1°F) warmer than the previous hottest summer.

Such an enormous anomaly over a multi-month span in one of the largest countries on Earth is unprecedented. https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/st...67189965586432

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• Half of the world's coral reefs may face unsuitable conditions by 2035

There's more bad news for planet Earth if climate change continues unabated. New research published on October 11 in the open access journal PLOS Biology by researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, United States reveals that, under a worst-case scenario, half of coral reef ecosystems worldwide will permanently face unsuitable conditions in just a dozen years.

The ability of ecosystems to adapt to changes within their environment largely depends upon the type and impact of their specific environmental stressors. Coral reefs, in particular, are sensitive to these unsuitable environmental conditions. However, the timeline for environmental suitability has been up for debate.

Utilizing CMIP5, an experimental framework designed to compute global models designed to improve climate change knowledge, researchers looked at global projections of five environmental stressors from historic scenarios through to projections for the year 2100. These stressors included sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, tropical storm, land use and human population projections.

"While the negative impacts of climate change on coral reefs are well known, this research shows that they are actually worse than anticipated due to a broad combination of climate change-induced stressors," said lead author Renee Setter, a doctoral student at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. "It was also enlightening to find that coral would face multiple stressors—posing an even greater hurdle and challenge that would need to be overcome to increase the possibility of survival."

Setter and colleagues found that, under the business-as-usual scenario, 2050 is the median year where environmental conditions are projected to become unsuitable for the world's coral reefs when looking at a single stressor. When multiple stressors are considered, the date falls to 2035. Additionally by 2055, it is projected that the majority of the world's coral reefs (99%) would be facing unsuitable conditions based on at least one of the five stressors studied. By 2100, it is anticipated that 93% of global reefs would be under threat by two or more of the stressors identified by the researchers.

"We know that corals are vulnerable to increasing sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves due to climate change. But it is important to include the complete anthropogenic impact and numerous stressors that coral reefs are exposed to in order to get a better sense of the overall risks to these ecosystems," added co-author Erik Franklin, Associate Research Professor at University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. "This has great implications for our local Hawaiian reefs that are key to local biodiversity, culture, fisheries and tourism."

The research team is now preparing to enter the next phase of their work. They will take a closer look at how climate change is projected to affect individual coral species. By identifying which species are more likely to survive unsuitable conditions and which may be more vulnerable, the team hopes to better understand which species may be more at risk to future stressors.

Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world’s coral reefs | PLOS Biology

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• Larry Summers' trillion-dollar climate spending plan

Larry Summers — who spent the last year-and-a-half warning about easy money and inflation — is calling on the World Bank to loosen its lending limits to combat climate change and think in the "trillions not the billions."

The big picture: Summers wants the U.S. to increase its capital contribution to the bank by $5 billion. With a total of $30 billion in new capital from across the globe, along with a revamped financial model, Summers argues that the bank could lend some $100 billion per year, with much of it directed towards energy projects.

Why it matters: The World Bank is front and center in the debate on how far and how fast industrialized economies can push developing countries to transition to green energy.

Driving the news: The former Treasury secretary and top White House economist told Axios ahead of this week's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank that the bank should take "the immense opportunity to catalyze finance and greatly accelerate the green energy and green agricultural transition.”

• His comments follow an op-ed published Monday in Project Syndicate.

The intrigue: Summers, a candidate to lead the bank under President Obama, will be interviewed Tuesday at 1:30p ET as part of the annual meetings by embattled bank president David Malpass, whom former Vice President Al Gore last month labeled a "climate denier."

• Malpass’s term ends in April of 2024, meaning a decision about his replacement will likely be made in the summer of 2023.
• A holdover from the Trump administration, Malpass had appeared to question that burning fossil fuels was warming the planet. He later clarified his remarks in an interview with CNN and an internal bank email.
• White House officials condemned Malpass's comments, but removing him would be exceedingly difficult and could end the informal agreement giving the World Bank’s presidency to the Americans and the IMF to the Europeans.

Don't forget: Summers has vexed the White House for suggesting that Biden stoked inflation by spending too big in his first year as president.

• But now he’s on the side of bigger investments. He’s calling for more funding for the World Bank and wants it to use its leverage to finance trillions of dollars in new projects.

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also wants to work with shareholders to help the bank develop a new roadmap to include a greater emphasis on climate.

Zoom in: Summers' op-ed calls attention to what he sees as the bank’s underutilized lending capacity: “Given the magnitude of global challenges over the next decade, we should be thinking in the trillions not the billions for the Bank."

• He told Axios that the bank "shouldn’t focus on overly broad restrictions such as lending to natural gas power plants" and “they need to focus on what they can do, and to take the immense opportunity to catalyze finance and greatly accelerate the green energy and green agricultural transition.”

The bottom line: Now that President Biden has passed some $370 billion in new domestic climate spending, officials are shifting their focus to the international arena to reduce global carbon emissions.

• Summers wants bank reform to be a central part of that discussion.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/11/lar...-spending-plan
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• Dr. Robert Rohde - Minor update to the Paris Agreement map.

Recently the Holy See (i.e. Vatican City) became the 193rd country to ratify the Agreement.

Every eligible UN member state has signed the Agreement, and all but Eritrea, Iran, Libya, and Yemen have ratified it. https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1580490812487790592

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Extra

• Alaska snow crab harvest canceled for first time ever

Berkeley Earth – September 2022 was the 4^th warmest September recorded.

Looking ahead. 2022 will likely finish the year either the 4^th or 5^th warmest year recorded.

Berkeley Earth

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• What does Arctic climate change have to do with extreme weather in Europe?

Rapid Arctic warming

Scientists are showing that the Arctic has warmed between three to four times faster than the global average – the average temperature of the planet has risen by around 1.1°C since the industrial revolution. Rapid Arctic warming is causing dramatic changes to sensitive sea ice, weather patterns, and jet streams – narrow bands of fast-flowing air that encircle the world.

Over the past few decades, sea ice – a one to five metre thick layer of frozen sea water – has retreated or become thinner across large areas of the Arctic.

“Arctic sea ice decline over the past 40 years is one of the most obvious signs that the Earth’s climate is warming” says Professor Ed Hawkins, National Centre for Atmospheric Science climate scientist at the University of Reading.

Professor Ed Hawkins goes on to explain how climate change is warming the Arctic at a faster rate than the rest of the world: “When the ocean is covered by sea ice, the ice acts as a reflective blanket that cools the region. As sea ice melts – driven by warmer global temperatures – the less reflective ocean absorbs more solar radiation, and that ocean warming leads to more sea ice melt and so on.”

Ocean temperature and shifts in atmospheric patterns

Alongside rapid loss of sea ice, increasing atmospheric temperatures in the Arctic are leading to ocean temperature rise, and shifts in atmospheric circulation.

Atmospheric circulation patterns, like the jet streams in mid latitudes, are expected to weaken and shift as the Arctic warms. These fast-flowing bands of air draw their energy from the temperature contrast between moving from north to south. By reducing that contrast as the Arctic gets warmer, it is predicted that mid-latitude jet streams – like the North Atlantic jet stream – will move off their usual course and to the south.

“This will have an impact on the location and severity of weather in the mid latitudes, particularly in the UK and Northwest Europe, which are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic jet stream. The types of weather we expect to be affected are droughts, heatwaves, extreme winds, and storms that lead to flooding” says Dr Ben Harvey, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading.

Dr Harvey continues: “But the details of these impacts, driven by Arctic warming, remain uncertain for the time being. Due to the current ability of computer models to simulate climate change and atmospheric circulation processes, it is challenging to predict short and long term changes to the Arctic environment.”

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• Carbon emission increases down steeply in 2022

Carbon emissions rose at a significantly slower pace this year than the year before, due largely to increased deployment of renewable energy, according to an analysis by the International Energy Administration (IEA).

Emissions for 2022 are poised to increase about 300 million metric tons, compared to close to 2 billion metric tons last year, according to the IEA. The 2021 increase was largely driven by the rollback of COVID-19-related restrictions and the recovery of the economy. The lack of this sudden burst of activity in 2022 means emissions were always poised to grow by less in 2022, but without the increased use of renewables and electric vehicles, they would have jumped by closer to 1 billion metric tons, according to the IEA.

Solar and wind power drove the growth in renewables this year, comprising a record increase of about 700 terawatt-hours and preventing an increase of more than 600 million metric tons of carbon. Hydropower also increased this year, comprising about 20 percent of renewable growth despite an increase in drought conditions in several regions.

The trajectory of carbon emissions, the primary driver of climate change, had been slowly improving for years before the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021 return to activity.

Another major contributing factor is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and the resulting sanctions on Russian natural gas.

“The encouraging news is that solar and wind are filling much of the gap, with the uptick in coal appearing to be relatively small and temporary,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “This means that CO2 emissions are growing far less quickly this year than some people feared — and that policy actions by governments are driving real structural changes in the energy economy. Those changes are set to accelerate thanks to the major clean energy policy plans that have advanced around the world in recent months.”

However, the IEA also determined that emissions from coal use specifically are set to rise this year as natural gas prices drive some countries to fall back on coal power. Driven primarily by increases in Asia, global coal-driven emissions are set to increase 2 percent in 2022. Although European Union nations increased their coal use this year, the EU bloc’s total emissions are set to drop in 2022.

NOAA – September 2022 was the 5^th warmest September recorded

Year-to-date, Jan. – Sept. 2022 is the 6^th warmest Jan. – Sept. recorded

National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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• Fossil fuel addiction killing millions and worsening climate crisis

Fossil fuel "addiction" is rapidly worsening climate change as the related effects of extreme weather leave 98 million people facing severe food insecurity and heat-related deaths surge, a new report warns.

The big picture: The burning of fossil fuels including coal, oil and natural gas that cause toxic air pollution kills some 11,800 Americans and about 1.2 million people globally every year, according to the report, published in the medical journal The Lancet Tuesday ahead of next month's UN Cop27 climate summit in Egypt.

What they found: The annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report examined 103 countries and found that the global land area impacted by extreme drought — like the one gripping much of the U.S. West — had grown by 29% in the past 50 years.

• Heat-related deaths jumped 68% between 2017-2021, compared to 2000-2004, as exposure to days of very-high or extremely-high fire danger rose in 61% of countries from 2001–2004 to 2018–2021, the University College London-led study found.
• Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries and worsening the impact of the cost-of-living crisis.

Of note: Global warming is leading to the spread of infectious diseases, per the report — which involved 99 researchers from 51 institutions, including the World Health Organization and the World Meteorological Organization

• Malaria transmission rose 32.1% in highland areas of the Americas and 14.9% in Africa in 2012-2021, compared to the 1950s.

State of play: Jeni Miller, executive director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance, said in an emailed statement accompanying the report that "fossil fuel-driven climate change is reducing family incomes due to heat waves that impact worker productivity."

• It's also "aggravating food insecurity through diminished crop yields" and the "worst impacts of fossil fuel-driven climate change are being felt by developing countries — those least responsible for having caused it."

Meanwhile, the carbon intensity of the global energy system, the biggest single contributing sector to global greenhouse gas emissions, has dropped by less than 1% from 1992 levels, according to the report.

Zoom in: Researchers found 69 out of the 86 governments analyzed in the report subsidized fossil fuels at a collective cost of $400 billion in 2019

• Governments "have so far failed to provide the smaller sum of $100 billion per year to help support climate action in lower income countries," the study noted.

The bottom line: "The world is edging closer to multiple tipping points that, once crossed, will drive temperatures well above 2°C ... current global actions are insufficient," the researchers warn in a linked editorial published in The Lancet.

What they're saying: "The climate crisis is killing us," said United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres in a statement responding to the report, as he called for "common-sense investments in renewable energy."

Between the lines: The report's description of fossil fuel use as an addiction is accurate, said the University of Maryland's Sacoby Wilson and University of Calgary's Courtney Howard, who weren't involved in the report, per AP.

• Howard, a professor of medicine, noted the increase in heat deaths hadn't thwarted fossil fuel use and the "continuing in habitual behavior despite known harms" was the definition of addiction.
• Environmental health professor Wilson told AP the report underscores that people "are dying now" from climate change's effects. "Droughts, desertification, not having food, flooding, tsunamis," Wilson said, citing the deadly floods that devastated Pakistan and Nigeria this year.

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• Carbon emissions to peak in 2025

For the first time, global demand for each of the fossil fuels shows a peak or plateau across all WEO scenarios, with Russian exports in particular falling significantly as the world energy order is reshaped

In the WEO’s Stated Policies Scenario, which is based on the latest policy settings worldwide, these new measures help propel global clean energy investment to more than USD 2 trillion a year by 2030, a rise of more than 50% from today. As markets rebalance in this scenario, the upside for coal from today’s crisis is temporary as renewables, supported by nuclear power, see sustained gains. As a result, a high point for global emissions is reached in 2025. At the same time, international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the rupture of Russia-Europe flows.

“Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Even with today’s policy settings, the energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system.”

For the first time ever, a WEO scenario based on today’s prevailing policy settings – in this case, the Stated Policies Scenario – has global demand for every fossil fuel exhibiting a peak or plateau. In this scenario, coal use falls back within the next few years, natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century. This means that total demand for fossil fuels declines steadily from the mid-2020s to 2050 by an annual average roughly equivalent to the lifetime output of a large oil field. The declines are much faster and more pronounced in the WEO’s more climate-focused scenarios.

Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position. All Russia’s trade ties with Europe based on fossil fuels had ultimately been undercut in previous WEO scenarios by Europe’s net zero ambitions, but Russia’s ability to deliver at relatively low cost meant that it lost ground only gradually. Now the rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible. Russian fossil fuel exports never return – in any of the scenarios in this year’s WEO – to the levels seen in 2021, with Russia’s reorientation to Asian markets particularly challenging in the case of natural gas. Russia’s share of internationally traded energy, which stood at close to 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in 2030 the Stated Policies Scenario, while the shares of both the United States and the Middle East rise.

https://www.iea.org/news/world-energ...-secure-future

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• Climate change-fueled heat waves have cost the world’s economy trillions

Heat waves driven by climate change have cost the global economy trillions of dollars since the early 1990s, a new study finds.

From 1992-2013, nations lost an estimated $16 trillion to the impacts of high temperatures on human health, productivity and agricultural output, according to the study, published in Science Advances on Friday.

And the world’s poorest and lowest carbon-emitting countries have suffered the most from the financial effects of severe heat, the authors observed.

“Accelerating adaptation measures within the hottest period of each year would deliver economic benefits now,” first author Christopher Callahan, a doctoral candidate in geography at Dartmouth College, said in a statement.

“The amount of money spent on adaptation measures should not be assessed just on the price tag of those measures, but relative to the cost of doing nothing,” Callahan continued, adding that there is “a substantial price tag to not doing anything.”

To draw their conclusions, Callahan and his colleagues said they combed through newly available, in-depth economic data for various regions around the world for the 1992-2013 period.

They then cross-checked that information with the average temperature for the hottest five-day period each year — a metric commonly used by scientists to gauge heat intensity.

The researchers calculated that during this time frame, heat waves statistically coincided with variations in economic growth and generated $16 trillion in economic losses.

“The true costs of climate change are far higher than we’ve calculated so far,” senior author Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth, said in a statement.

These findings are a testament to the need for policies and technologies that protect people during the hottest days of the year, the authors contended.

“No place is well adapted to our current climate,” Mankin said, noting that those with the lowest incomes are suffering the most.

“As climate change increases the magnitude of extreme heat, it’s a fair expectation that those costs will continue to accumulate,” he added.

While climate models have long included heat waves among other climate-induced weather extremes, the waves have what Callahan described as “a unique signature.”

Not only do they tend to occur on shorter timescales than droughts, but they are also expected to feature rapid temperature surges as human activity further influences climate change, according to the authors.

“Heat waves are one of the most direct and tangible effects of climate change that people feel, yet they have not been fully integrated into our assessments of what climate change has cost and will cost in the future,” Callahan said.

In the wealthiest regions of the world, the authors found that economic losses due to extreme heat average 1.5 percent of gross domestic product per capita.

But in low-income regions, those losses were about 6.7 percent of gross domestic product per capita.

“Almost no country on Earth has benefitted from the extreme heat that has occurred,” Mankin said.

Low-income countries are home to disproportionate numbers of outdoor workers, but these individuals are generating raw materials that are critical to global supply chains, according to Mankin.

“There is absolutely the potential for upward ripple effects,” he added.

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibri...illions-study/

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• Greenhouse gases in atmosphere hit new high

The concentration of planet-warming gases in the atmosphere once again reached new highs last year, according to a new report.

• The report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) found that planet-warming gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide were at 149 percent, 262 percent and 124 percent, respectively, of their pre-industrial levels.
• This is a measure of how much of the gases remain trapped in the atmosphere in total, and is not a measure of new greenhouse gas emissions that are added annually.

Because the most common greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, lasts in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, its concentrations are expected to continue to grow rather than diminish for a very long time.

This heats up the planet and exacerbates climate impacts such as heat waves, sea level rise and food insecurity.

And that’s not all: The report also found a relatively high increase in carbon dioxide concentrations, saying that the increase from 2020 to 2021 was larger than the average annual growth from the last decade.

Meanwhile, methane concentrations saw their largest increase on record. Methane has more than 25 times the power of carbon dioxide to warm the Earth but usually only lasts for about 12 years in the atmosphere.

The head of the WMO — which is part of the United Nations — said the finding underscores the importance of taking action on climate change.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...-high-in-2021/

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• The world faces a “rapidly closing window” to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, warns the latest “emissions gap” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

The report, which explores the impact of new pledges and the “gap” toward meeting the Paris targets, finds that while progress has been made in recent years to mitigate emissions and deploy more clean energy, it is insufficient to put the world on a path to limit warming to well-below 2C or to 1.5C this century.

Despite ambitious pledges, there has been “limited progress” in the year since COP26, it says.

In a stark warning, the new UNEP report says that incremental change is “no longer an option” and that avoiding dangerous levels of warming will require a “wide-ranging, large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation”.

The report finds that the world is likely heading for around 2.6C warming above pre-industrial levels under policies in place today, though uncertainties in the climate system mean that warming of up to 4C cannot be fully ruled out.

If countries meet their 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the terms of the Paris Agreement global temperatures would likely end up around 2.2C to 2.4C, while achieving ambitious net-zero pledges would limit warming to around 1.7C.

Over the past year, the number of countries with longer-term net-zero pledges has increased from 74 to 88 – and these now cover approximately 79% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

However, many countries have yet to pass substantive policies or update their 2030 NDCs to be consistent with their stated net-zero commitments. As the report notes, this discrepancy “does not provide confidence” that net-zero targets will be achieved.

There need to be “broad-based economy-wide transformations” to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit warming to well-below 2C or to 1.5C, the report warns. And when it comes to future climate change impacts, the report makes it clear that “every fraction of a degree matters”.

Much more in the article: https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-mee...-of-societies/

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Simon Evans -Perspective

38,976,609,270 tonnes of CO2 in 2021
8,172,617,750 tonnes coal
4,221,366,060 tonnes oil
2,737,006,522 gas
2,600,000,000 iron ore
26,000,000 copper
2,700,000 nickel
170,000 cobalt
100,000 lithium
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/statu...86350522560512

NASA – September 2022 was the 5^th warmest September recorded

The YTD average global temperature was the sixth warmest on record at 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average.

NASA

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• UNESCO says a third of World Heritage glaciers will vanish by 2050

A third of global glaciers located at World Heritage sites will disappear by 2050, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) warned on Thursday.

Among the glaciers to vanish will be those at Yellowstone National Park, Yosemite National Park and Mount Kilimanjaro, according to UNESCO.

While those glaciers will melt regardless of efforts to limit temperature increases, it is possible to save the remaining two thirds of glaciers at these 50 sites, the organization stressed in a new report.

But to do so, the authors cautioned, global heating must not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above pre-industrial levels.

“This report is a call to action,” Audrey Azoulay, UNESCO director-general, said in a statement.

“Only a rapid reduction in our CO2 emissions levels can save glaciers and the exceptional biodiversity that depends on them,” Azoulay added.

As delegates prepare to meet in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, next week for COP27, the U.N. climate change conference, Azoulay stressed that the summit will play “a crucial role to help find solutions to this issue.”

“UNESCO is determined to support states in pursuing this goal,” she said.

The 1.5-degree-Celsius warming threshold is the same bar that countries said they hoped to stay below at the U.N. climate summit in Paris — COP21 — in 2015. At the time, they pledged to adhere to a 2-degree-Celsius, or 3.6-degree Fahrenheit, warming limit.

Fifty UNESCO World Heritage sites are home to a total of 18,600 glaciers that cover an area of about 25,500 square miles, the authors found.

That’s equivalent to about 10 percent of the Earth’s total “glacierized” area, according to the report, which was compiled in collaboration with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.

These glaciers have been retreating at an accelerated rate since the turn of the century due to carbon dioxide emissions, which are warming temperatures, the authors explained.

In total, the glaciers are losing 58 billion tons of ice each year — equivalent to the combined annual water use of Spain and France — and are responsible for about 5 percent of global sea-level rise, according to UNESCO.

Half of humanity depends either directly or indirectly on glaciers as a source of water for domestic consumption, agriculture and power, the report stressed. Glaciers are also critical to a wide range of ecosystems and the biodiversity that populates them.

In addition to the vanishing glaciers at Yellowstone, Yosemite and Kilimanjaro national parks, among those ice masses due to disappear by 2050 are those at the Waterton Glacier International Peace Park on the U.S.-Canada border.

These North American glaciers have lost 26.5 percent of their volume in the past two decades, according to the report.

Others include those at Mount Kenya, those in the Three Parallel Rivers of China’s Yunnan Protected Areas and in Western Tien-Shan — on the Kazakh-Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. These glaciers have shrunken by 57.2 percent and 27 percent, respectively, since 2000, per the report.

In Europe, glaciers in danger of disappearing include those at Mont Perdu in the French-Spanish Pyrenees, as well as those in the Dolomites in Italy, according to the report.

Glaciers at Argentina’s Los Alerces National Park and those at Peru’s Huascaran National Park are under threat in Latin America, the authors found. These glaciers have lost 45.6 percent and 15 percent of their volume, respectively, since 2000, per the report.

Glaciers in Te Waipounamu, New Zealand, meanwhile, have lost almost 20 percent of their volume since 2000, UNESCO warned.

To help save the remaining glaciers at World Heritage sites, UNESCO is calling for the creating of an international fund for monitoring and preservation.

Such a fund, the report explained, would promote related research and implementing early warning and disaster risk reduction measures.

“When glaciers melt rapidly, millions of people face water scarcity and the increased risk of natural disasters such as flooding, and millions more may be displaced by the resulting rise in sea levels,” Bruno Oberle, director-general of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, said in a statement.

Curbing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in nature-based solutions “can help mitigate climate change and allow people to better adapt to its impacts,” Oberle added.

https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000383551

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Extreme weather

• DRIED UP: Threats to Colorado snowpack pose risks far downslope

The American West is experiencing its driest period in human history, a megadrought that threatens health, agriculture and entire ways of life. DRIED UP is examining the dire effects of the drought on the states most affected — as well as the solutions Americans are embracing.

BOULDER, COLO. — As unseasonable fall warmth bakes the Rocky Mountain hillsides, veteran snowmaker Tony Wrone has come to terms with the fact that these are no longer the winters of his youth.

“Last year, we had a real hard time because it was so warm in November,” Wrone, who began making snow in Keystone, Colo., in 1996, told The Hill.

“Back then, I think we opened one year there around Oct. 18 or something like that,” said Wrone, a snowmaking manager at the Aspen Snowmass resort. “Now, we seem to be struggling for temps in November.”

Wrone said he is concerned that these conditions may repeat themselves, particularly because meteorologists have once again predicted a hot, dry fall. And what will happen this winter is anyone’s guess.

As climate change shakes up weather systems worldwide, a region known for its snow has become increasingly uncertain just how much longer its mountainsides will be coated in white.

Like the rest of the Western U.S., the Rocky Mountains are at the mercy of an unforgiving drought, the region’s worst in more than 1,000 years. At the literal top of the water cycle, the lack of snow threatens both the livelihoods that depend on it and the water needs of those hundreds or even thousands of miles away.

Much much more in the article

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Just for fun.

• Thijs Niks - Amsterdam airport police running after hundreds of climate activists blocking private jets while on bicycles is objectively funny: https://twitter.com/thijsniks/status...87670356668417 - https://nos.nl/artikel/2451147-ruim-...ievoerders-weg

• The Onion - World Hunger Activists Throw Oil On Pelican To Protest Climate Activists Wasting Soup https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1586081634054545408

Copernicus – Globally, October 2022 was the 4^th warmest October reported and Europe recorded its warmest October ever.

Copernicus

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• World to blow past key climate red-line, study finds

World governments have failed to cut emissions sufficiently to avert serious climate disruptions, a new study has found.

Commitments from national governments have made it “inevitable” that average global temperatures will cross the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to a landmark paper by the Department of Energy (DOE) published on Thursday in Nature Climate Change.

These findings now shift the focus to trying to limit emissions with the goal of keeping warming as close to 1.5 degrees as possible — while trying to find ways to drag warming back down, the DOE and its research partners at the University of Maryland and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated.

“Let’s face it. We are going to breach the 1.5 degrees limit in the next couple of decades,” coauthor scientist Haewon McJeon of the DOE’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory said in a statement.

“That means we’ll go up to 1.6 or 1.7 degrees or above, and we’ll need to bring it back down to 1.5. But how fast we can bring it down is key,” McJeon added.

The study comes on the eve of President Biden’s visit Friday to the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Egypt, where he plans to tout U.S. progress on clean energy and climate goals, according to the White House. Still, the study found that government actions in the U.S. and other countries have not kept pace with the changing climate.

In climate circles, the concept of passing a key threshold is called “overshoot.” But while passing the global warming threshold is now likely unavoidable, differing degrees of overshoots — and speed of bringing temperatures back down — lead to dramatically different results, the researchers found.

If countries simply upheld their existing climate commitments — which would see the emissions of planet-heating gasses declining indefinitely at about 2 percent per year — carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will continue to increase throughout the end of the century, the researchers found.

That scenario leads to “irreversible and adverse consequences for human and natural systems,” lead author Gokul Iyer of the Joint Global Change Research Institute said in a statement.

Even that grim scenario is more optimistic than existing trends would suggest. And despite Democrats’ passage of a sweeping climate bill in late September, the Biden administration has approved new oil and gas wells “at a far faster pace” than the Trump administration did in an equivalent period, Politico reported earlier this month.

“We’re producing 12 million barrels of oil per day and by the end of this year we will be producing 1 million barrels a day more than the day in which I took office. In fact, we’re on track for record oil production in 2023,” Biden bragged in late October.

The burning of fossil fuels is almost universally agreed upon by scientists as the primary driver of climate change.

Over the past two decades, the fossil fuel industry has shifted from outright denial of this linkage to a posture analogous to that of tobacco companies, which blames the damage caused by climate change on society as a whole, according to a 2021 study in One Earth.

In the most ambitious scenarios that the DOE researchers explored, the delay gives way to rapid action. In these models, countries would have to make rapid cuts in their emissions of greenhouse gasses — largely released from the burning of fossil fuels — through 2030.

This path would bring a global net zero of carbon dioxide by 2057 — and with it a drastic slowdown of the processes that drive global heating, the researchers found.

That path would involve a rapid scaling up of emissions-reducing technologies — from electric vehicles to hydrogen and wind power and massive cuts in the use of carbon-based energy, according to the study. It would also require an enormous scaling up of technologies like carbon capture, to pull planet-heating carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, researchers found.

World governments pledged at the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to stay below 2 degrees Celsius of warming and to remain “as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.”

That 2-degree figure marks a red-line at which the worst climate impacts could be avoided, but at which severe disruptions begin to emerge — sowing discord, drought and disease far more dramatic than if warming is kept to 1.5 degrees.

Extreme heat waves would also affect more than twice as much of the world population in the 2-degree world than the 1.5-degree world, a U.S. government study found.

At 2 degrees, loss of biodiversity also doubles or triples over the levels expected at 1.5 degrees, as does the number of ecosystems transitioning from one form to another — as from forest to savannah or scrubland, according to the 2018 U.N. study

The higher threshold of warming also leads to markedly more severe declines in yields of key cereal grains and drops in the annual yields of fisheries.

One fact that helps explain that dramatic fall in available fish protein: at 1.5 degrees, coral reefs suffer severe declines, but at 2 degrees they all but disappear.

Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming | Nature Climate Change

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• Biden-Harris Administration Strengthens Proposal to Cut Methane Pollution to Protect Communities, Combat Climate Change, and Bolster American Innovation | US EPA

Stronger standards would reduce harmful emissions and energy waste from covered sources by 87 percent below 2005 levels while delivering economic benefits

Today at COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced it is strengthening its proposed standards to cut methane and other harmful air pollution. If finalized, these critical, commonsense standards will protect workers and communities, maintain and create high-quality, union-friendly jobs, and promote U.S. innovation and manufacturing of critical new technologies, all while delivering significant economic benefits through increased recovery of wasted gas.

The updates, which supplement proposed standards EPA released in November 2021, reflect input and feedback from a broad range of stakeholders and nearly half a million public comments. The updates would provide more comprehensive requirements to reduce climate and health-harming air pollution, including from hundreds of thousands of existing oil and gas sources nationwide. It would promote the use of innovative methane detection technologies and other cutting-edge solutions, many of which are being developed and deployed by small businesses providing good-paying jobs across the United States.

The new proposal also includes a ground-breaking “Super-Emitter Response Program” that would require operators to respond to credible third-party reports of high-volume methane leaks. The agency estimates that in 2030, the proposal would reduce methane from covered sources by 87 percent below 2005 levels.

“The United States is once again a global leader in confronting the climate crisis, and we must lead by example when it comes to tackling methane pollution – one of the biggest drivers of climate change. We’re listening to public feedback and strengthening our proposed oil and gas industry standards, which will enable innovative new technology to flourish while protecting people and the planet,” said EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan. “Our stronger standards will work hand in hand with the historic level of resources from the Inflation Reduction Act to protect our most vulnerable communities and to put us on a path to achieve President Biden’s ambitious climate goals.”

Oil and natural gas operations are the nation’s largest industrial source of methane. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that traps about 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide, on average, over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere and is responsible for approximately one third of the warming from greenhouse gases occurring today. Sharp cuts in methane emissions are among the most critical actions the U.S. can take in the short term to slow the rate of climate change. Oil and natural gas operations are also significant sources of other health-harming air pollutants, including smog-forming volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and toxic air pollutants such as benzene.

Key features of the supplemental proposal would:

• Ensure that all well sites are routinely monitored for leaks at less cost, and until they are closed properly;
• Provide industry flexibility to use innovative and cost-effective methane detection technologies, and a streamlined process for approving new detection methods as they become available;
• Leverage data from remote sensing technology to quickly identify and fix large methane leaks;
• Require that flares are properly operated to reduce emissions, and revise requirements for associated gas flaring;

• Establish emission standards for dry seal compressors, which are currently unregulated;
• Set a zero-emissions standard for pneumatic controllers and pneumatic pumps at affected facilities in all segments of the industry.
• Increase recovery of natural gas that otherwise would go to waste – enough gas from 2023 to 2035 to heat an estimated 3.5 million homes for the winter.

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• UN chief: It is either a "climate change solidarity pact" or a "suicide pact"

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for a "climate solidarity pact" between rich and poor nations to limit the severity of global warming in a COP27 speech.

Why it matters: Guterres places a high priority on tackling climate change, and the proposal emphasizes the rapidly closing window to limit the extent of warming.

Zoom in: Speaking to world leaders at the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, Guterres spoke in stark terms: "We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator," he said. "Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish."

• A solidarity pact would involve countries pushing to slash greenhouse gas emissions in such a way to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target, and wealthier nations providing financial and technical help to developing countries for them to transition to cleaner energy sources.
• Guterres also advocated for a coal phase-out in industrialized nations by 2030, and elsewhere by 2040.

Between the lines: To realize his vision would require cooperation between the world's two largest emitters, the United States and China. However, right now, these two countries are not speaking formally on climate or other issues due to tensions over Taiwan.

• "The two largest economies — the United States and China — have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this pact a reality," Guterres stated. "This is our only hope of meeting our climate goals."
• Guterres endorsed developing countries' push for a financial mechanism to be negotiated at COP27 that provides for climate damage payments for the developing nations that contributed the least to causing climate change, but that are seeing some of its worst impacts.

"Getting concrete results on loss and damage is a litmus test of the commitment of governments to the success of COP27," he stated.

• Climate damages, known as "loss and damage" in the UN climate talks, is on the official agenda for the first time at COP27, though with key caveats, such as a 2024 deadline for working out the details.
• Developing countries, such as flood-ravaged Pakistan, are seeking financing details far sooner, ideally at this COP.

The bottom line: "It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact — or a Collective Suicide Pact," Guterres said, given increasingly severe climate change impacts.

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/07/un-...olidarity-pact

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• Earth's "distress signal" for COP27

2022 global temperature anomalies

January to September 2022; Difference from the January to September 1981-2010 average

An array of climate statistics released over the weekend provide a sobering backdrop for global climate negotiations kicking off in Egypt.

Why it matters: The new data provide the most complete and up-to-date look at climate conditions through 2022, depicting a world of worsening impacts.

• As COP27 gets underway, our planet is sending a distress signal," said UN secretary-general António Guterres, in a video message Sunday.

Zoom in: The report, timed for the start of the COP27 negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, finds that the past 8 years have been the world's warmest on record.

• The provisional "State of the Global Climate" report notes that the pace of sea level rise is increasing, with 10% of the increase since 1993 occurring in just the past two and a half years.
• "Although we still measure this in terms of millimeters per year, it adds up to half to one meter per century and that is a long-term and major threat to many millions of coastal dwellers and low-lying states," said World Meteorological Organization head Petteri Taalas, in a statement.
• The dominant cause is now melting land-based ice from Greenland, Antarctica and mountain glaciers, studies show.

By the numbers: Glaciers in the Alps lost a record 3 to 4 meters of ice this summer as Europe saw a series of intense heat waves.

• For the first time on record, no snow lasted through the summer season in Switzerland, the report states.
• The Greenland ice sheet's string of years of losing more ice than it gained extended to 26 years.
• In addition, the first instance of rainfall during September was recorded at the top of the Greenland ice sheet, a possible sign of the melt season extending later in the year.

Between the lines: The report finds that the world is on track to see its fifth or sixth-warmest year on record this year, with global average temperatures currently running about 1.15°C (2.07°F) above the preindustrial average.

• The authors at the WMO, a UN agency, tie the lack of a record warmest year in 2022 to the third-straight year of cooling La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• The next El Niño year is likely to be the world's warmest, and some early projections show a possible El Niño developing in 2023.
• Ocean heat content reached record levels in 2021, with recent studies showing such trends continuing and increasingly resulting in extreme weather events over land.
• The report touches on a litany of climate change-related disasters this year, from flooding in Pakistan to drought and extreme heat in China.

What they're saying: Guterres on Monday called for a "climate solidarity pact" between rich and poor nations to limit the severity of global warming in a COP27 speech.

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/07/cop...nal-statistics

Chinese experts warned

Hoohoo no-one cares what chinky "experts" warned because they're

1. Not experts
2. Lying c u n t s.

Get over it.

NOAA – October 2022 was the 4^th warmest October recorded and January – October 2022 was the 6^th warmest January – October recorded

NOAA

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• Climate conference strikes tentative deal for ‘loss and damage’ fund

The COP27 United Nations climate conference has reached a tentative deal for a “loss and damage” fund for nations on the front lines of climate change after declining to take up the issue for years.

The draft agreement would not be official until a broader COP27 agreement is ratified by the more than 200 participating nations in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, but it marks a major reversal from years past, when the wealthy nations that would fund such an effort refused to consider the issue.

The draft text outlines a proposed fund that would be open to all developing nations “that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.” The document is light on details as to the financial model and logistics of the fund, but the tentative agreement marks a major breakthrough for developing nations that have struggled to make their voices heard on the world stage on climate issues.

Nations in the global south and those on low-lying islands have long called for the creation of such a fund, which would pay for irreversible damages caused by the effects of climate change with money from wealthier, developed nations.

Although the U.S. has long been at the forefront of opposition to the idea, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said earlier this year the U.S. was open to it. Late this week, European Union (EU) delegates issued a proposal that European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans described as the EU’s “final offer.” Timmermans said any agreement would depend on an updated definition of a “developing” country. China, currently the world’s largest single emitter, is considered a developing country under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Alpha Kaloga, a lead negotiator for Guinea at the summit, described the agreement on Twitter as a “unique moment” after “30 years of patience.”

As negotiations at the conference enter overtime, a number of other contentious issues are on the table as well, including an India-backed phasedown of unabated fossil fuel development that the EU has supported but nations such as Saudi Arabia are likely to oppose. The negotiations process encountered another hurdle late Friday when Kerry tested positive for COVID-19.

Draft https://unfccc.int/documents/624364


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U.N. Publishes Draft COP27 Climate Deal - https://unfccc.int/documents/624107

NASA – October 2022 was the 5^th warmest October recorded

NASA

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• COP27: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Sharm el-Sheikh

The COP27 summit in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh made history

The COP27 summit in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh made history when developing countries secured a new fund to support the victims of climate disasters.

Yet this was tempered by a wider agreement – the “Sharm el-Sheikh implementation plan” – that excluded any mention of winding down the use of fossil fuels. It also provided little indication that nations were serious about scaling up efforts to cut emissions.

Talks at the second most attended COP of all time went deep into extra time, as parties attempted to reach a deal that could secure consensus.

The Egyptian presidency had promised an “implementation COP” that would see the pledges of the past give way to balanced action on tackling climate change and preparing for its effects.

In reality, the results were a mixed bag, achieving more on the impacts of climate change than on its causes.

The decision to set up a new fund for “loss and damage” resulting from climate change marked the climax of a decades-long effort by small island states and other vulnerable nations.

But the EU and its allies voiced strong concerns about an outcome that did little to advance efforts to stay below 1.5C, beyond what had been agreed at COP26 in Glasgow last year.

All of this took place against a backdrop of overlapping global food, energy and debt crises, and an Egyptian government facing accusations of human-rights abuses.

Here, Carbon Brief provides in-depth analysis of all the key outcomes in Sharm el-Sheikh – both inside and outside the COP.

• Formal negotiations
  
  • Egyptian leadership
  • Sharm el-Sheikh implementation plan
  • Loss and damage
    
    • Additional loss-and-damage funding
    • Santiago Network
    
    
  • Mitigation work programme
  • Adaptation
  • Finance
  • Koronivia joint work on agriculture
  • Article 6
  • Global stocktake
  • Response measures
  • Other matters
  • Long-term global goal
  • Common metrics
  • Reporting rules
  • Action for climate empowerment
  • Gender and climate

• Around the COP
  
  • International pledges
    
    • Fossil fuels and renewable energy
    • Methane
    • Deforestation
    • Agriculture
    
    
  • Global leaders and country pledges
  • China at COP27
  • Protests, access and harassment
  • Greenwashing at COP27
  • Russia’s war
  
  
• Road to COP28

Why and how: China's dual carbon goals

chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2022-11-28 06:40

3 minute video with English subs:

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202211/28/WS6383e741a31057c47eba148a.html

Originally Posted by OhOh

Why and how: China's dual carbon goals

More chinkystan bullshit then.

China has announced a new plan to tackle methane leaks in oil and gas, agriculture and waste, although it omitted the coal mining sector, which emits an estimated 24mn t/yr, making it the single largest source of fossil fuel methane emissions globally.

China is the world’s fastest country in improving air quality: report


By Zhang Changyue Published: Nov 29, 2022 09:17 PM Updated: Nov 29, 2022 09:13 PM

"China has become the world's fastest country in improving air quality with a dramatic drop in the emissions intensity of major pollutants and carbon, said an environmental NGO report.

China's annual average PM2.5 concentration and sulfur dioxide concentration have fallen by about 56 and 78 percent from 2013 to 2021, respectively, making China the country that has improved its air quality with the fastest speed in the world, said Clean Air Asia (CCA), an international NGO that works for better air quality and healthier cities throughout Asia with its headquarters in Manila, the Philippines.

CCA released the report on China's past decade of cleaner air and climate change at the China Blue Sky Forum 2022 held on Tuesday via video link, assessing the air quality situation in 20 countries including the US, the UK and Germany, as well as 17 other countries in Asia, such as China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, India and Pakistan.

According to the report, air quality in megacities covered in the analysis has generally improved over the past decade, particularly in East Asia. From 2018 to 2021, eight of the nine cities that saw their three-year moving average of PM2.5 concentration drop by more than 10 percent were in East Asia and six of them were in China.

Experts said the benefits of air quality improvement exceed the costs involved. "The latest research showed that if the air quality was continuously improved on the basis of the 2020 level, the health benefits could account for about 1-4 percent of GDP, which is higher than the cost", said Zhang Shiqiu, professor of the College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering of Peking University, at the forum.

China revised and issued its Ambient Air Quality Standards in 2012 and it has made great efforts in the "golden decade" on air pollution prevention and control. China has become the world's fastest improving country in terms of air quality, and many of its emissions control standards are already at the world's advanced level, said the report.

China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment said in May that 218 of 339 cities at the prefecture level and above met air quality standards in 2021, up 3.5 percent compared with 2020. As China's current standard is based on the most lenient transition-phase target in new WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines, Zhang suggested further raising the PM2.5 concentration standard to better protect public health.

Besides air quality, the report compared China's emissions of major air pollutants and greenhouse gas, energy consumption and transportation industry indicators with other countries.

China's emission of SO2 and NOx per unit of GDP have respectively fallen by about 88 and 70 percent from 2011 to 2019, the sharpest decliness among all countries, while the emissions of SO2 and NOx per unit of GDP also showed drops of more than 40 percent in the US, the UK and Singapore, said the report.

When it comes to transportation, China has been the world's largest electric passenger car market since 2015, accounting for half of the global market. From 2011 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of China's electric passenger car sector reached 91.3 percent, higher than the global average, according to the report.

While China's carbon emissions intensity has dropped by 34.4 percent over the past decade, experts pointed out that it must work very hard to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality in a shorter time period than developed countries."

China is the world’s fastest country in improving air quality: report - Global Times

Originally Posted by OhOh

China has become the world's fastest country in improving air quality with a dramatic drop in the emissions intensity of major pollutants and carbon, said an environmental NGO report.

Gee, thanks Wuhan Flu!

JMA – October 2022 was the 3^rd warmest October recorded

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)
1st. 2015 (+0.38°C), 2nd. 2019 (+0.35°C), 3rd. 2022, 2021 (+0.30°C), 5th. 2018 (+0.24°C)

Tokyo Climate Center Home Page

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• Prof Richard Betts - Hugely important paper!

"Global greening" since the 1980s actually reversed around the year 2000

The trend turned to "browning" in 90% of vegetated area due to climates becoming too hot and dry in many places https://twitter.com/richardabetts/st...67710342430720

Earth’s Future

Key Points

• The widespread increase of vegetation greening trend since 1980s was reversed around the year 2000 over 90% of the global vegetated area
• The leveling off of global greenness arisen from recent exceeding optimal temperature and increasing water limitation for photosynthesis
• Our findings of the diversity of browning mechanisms are useful for projecting global future vegetation change and its climatic consequences

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• US rule would limit methane leaks from public lands drilling

The Interior Department on Monday proposed rules to limit methane leaks from oil and gas drilling on public lands, the latest action by the Biden administration to crack down on emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that contributes significantly to global warming.

The proposal by Interior’s Bureau of Land Management would tighten limits on gas flaring on federal land and require energy companies to better detect methane leaks that add to planet-warming greenhouse gas pollution.

The actions follow a more comprehensive methane-reduction plan announced by President Joe Biden earlier this month. The Nov. 11 proposal, announced as Biden attended a global climate conference in Egypt, targets the oil and gas industry for its role in global warming even as the president has pressed energy producers for more oil drilling to lower prices at the gasoline pump.

Oil and gas production is the nation’s largest industrial source of methane, the primary component of natural gas, and is a key target for the Biden administration as it seeks to combat climate change.

The proposal announced Monday would prevent billions of cubic feet of natural gas from being wasted through venting, flaring and leaks, boosting efficiency while at the same time reducing pollution, administration officials said.

“This proposed rule will bring our regulations in line with technological advances that industry has made in the decades since the BLM’s rules were first put in place, while providing a fair return to taxpayers,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement.

Venting and flaring activity from oil and gas production on public lands has significantly increased in recent decades. Between 2010 and 2020, total volumes of natural gas lost to venting and flaring on federal and tribal lands averaged about 86.8 billion cubic feet per year — enough to serve roughly 1.3 million homes, officials said. The figure represents a sharp increase from an annual average of 15 billion cubic feet lost to venting and flaring in the 1990s.

“No one likes to waste natural resources from our public lands,″ said BLM Director Tracy Stone-Manning. She called the draft rule a common-sense, environmentally responsible solution to address the damage that wasted natural gas causes. The rule “puts the American taxpayer first and ensures producers pay appropriate royalties,” she said.

Interior had previously announced a rule to restrict methane emissions under former President Barack Obama. The plan was challenged in court and later weakened under former President Donald Trump. Competing court rulings blocked enforcement of the Trump and Obama-era rules, leading the agency to revert to rules developed more than 40 years ago.

The Environmental Protection Agency rule announced in Egypt targets emissions from existing oil and gas wells nationwide, including smaller drilling sites that now will be required to find and plug methane leaks.

The rule comes as Biden has accused oil companies of “war profiteering” and raised the possibility of imposing a windfall tax on energy companies if they don’t boost domestic production.

Besides the EPA rule, a sprawling climate and health law approved by Congress in August would impose a fee on energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane emissions. The fee, set to rise to $1,500 per metric ton of methane, marks the first time the federal government has directly imposed a fee, or tax, on greenhouse gas emissions.

The law includes $1.5 billon in grants and other spending to improve monitoring and data collection of methane emissions, with the goal of finding and repairing natural gas leaks.

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• Zeke Hausfather - The first climate model that estimated how the world might warm in the future was published in 1970.

That model, as well as ones published in the 1970s, 80s, 90s, and 2000s, have done a remarkably good job predicting what actually occurred in the years after they were published https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1597660277188677632

Copernicus – November 2022 was the 9^th warmest November recorded

Copernicus

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• Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hit record high in 2022

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement have increased by 1.0% in 2022, new estimates suggest, hitting a new record high of 36.6bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2).

The estimates come from the 2022 Global Carbon Budget report by the Global Carbon Project. It finds that the increase in fossil emissions in 2022 has been primarily driven by a strong increase in oil emissions as global travel continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Coal and gas emissions grew more slowly, though both had record emissions in 2022.

Total global CO2 emissions – including land use and fossil CO2 – increased by approximately 0.8% in 2022, driven by a combination of steady land-use emissions between 2021 and 2022 and increasing fossil CO2 emissions. However, total CO2 emissions remain below their highs set in 2019 and have been relatively flat since 2015.

The 17th edition of the Global Carbon Budget, which is published today, also reveals:

• The remaining carbon budget keeping warming below 1.5C will be gone in nine years, if emissions remain at current levels.
• The increase in global fossil emissions in 2022 was driven by a small increase in US emissions and a larger increase in Indian and rest-of-the-world emissions. Chinese emissions saw a small decline, while EU emissions remained largely unchanged from 2021.
• Most of the increase in emissions was from oil. Coal saw a slight increase in emissions – somewhat smaller than might have been expected given the global energy crisis – while gas emissions remained flat and emissions from cement saw a slight decline
• Global CO2 concentrations set a new record of 417.2 parts per million (ppm), up 2.5ppm from 2021 levels. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now 51% above pre-industrial levels.
• The effects of climate change have reduced the CO2 uptake of the ocean sink by around 4% and the land sink by around 17%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clima...k-record-2022/
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• Annual Increase in Globally-Averaged Atmospheric Methane

The table and plot summarize annual increases in atmospheric CH₄ based on globally averaged marine surface data

Prof. Eliot Jacobson - Methane Update:

The August, 2022 methane number was just released, at 1908.62 ppb. This makes the 30th straight month that the annualized amount of new methane entering the atmosphere has increased (or methane sinks have decreased).

The orange line is the COP-26 Glasgow Pledge. https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/st...24531431718912

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/tr.../ch4_mm_gl.txt - https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/

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• Lijing Cheng - IAP upper 2000m updated to September, quite high in the past 3 month (http://ocean.iap.ac.cn)

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• Los Angeles City Council approves ban on oil and gas drilling within city limits

The Los Angeles City Council on Friday unanimously approved a ban on oil and gas drilling within the city limits, finalizing steps toward a ban that were first made at the beginning of the year.

Council members approved 12-0 a resolution enacting an immediate ban on all new oil and drilling. The city will also decommission existing oil wells and operations within 20 years, according to a fact sheet.

Before the vote, City Council President Paul Krekorian called the city’s forthcoming ban a “watershed moment” for climate action.

“Part of [the city’s] economic growth was because of the oil and gas industry at the beginning of the Twentieth Century,” Krekorian said. “But the result of that incredible growth contaminated countless parts of this city, countless neighborhoods.”

Oil drilling has helped the U.S. become energy independent but contributes to global warming and air pollution. Angelenos who live near oil production operations have raised various health concerns related to air pollution for years.

California has enacted laws to create buffers between schools, neighborhoods and oil wells, but Krekorian said Friday those were only a temporary solution.

“The time has come — and today is that time, today is that day — when we end oil and gas production,” he said.

Los Angeles has 26 oil and gas fields and more than 5,000 oil and gas wells, located in nearly all parts of the city.

https://thehill.com/homenews/3762406...n-city-limits/

NOAA – November 2022 was the 9^th warmest November recorded and January – November 2022 was the 6^th warmest January – November recorded.

NOAA

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• Human-caused climate change fuels warmer, wetter, stormier Arctic

A typhoon, smoke from wildfires and increasing rain are not what most imagine when thinking of the Arctic. Yet these are some of the climate-driven events included in NOAA’s 2022 Arctic Report Card, which provides a detailed picture of how warming is reshaping the once reliably frozen, snow-covered region which is heating up faster than any other part of the world.

This year’s Arctic Report Card also features the most comprehensive chapter in the annual report’s 17-year history about how these dramatic environmental changes are felt by Arctic Indigenous people, and how their communities are addressing the changes.

The 15th chapter of the report card, authored by a team that includes Native Alaskan scientists, describes how warming air temperatures, shrinking sea ice, shorter periods of snow cover, increased wildfire, rising levels of precipitation and changes in animal migration patterns and their abundance profoundly affect the safety, food security, health, economic wellbeing and cultural traditions of Indigenous people.

“With this important new chapter and other timely additions, the 2022 Arctic Report Card underscores the urgency to confront the climate crisis by reducing greenhouse gasses and taking steps to be more resilient,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “The report provides observations and analysis to help build a Climate-Ready Nation in a region on the front lines of climate change.”

Major findings in this year’s report include:

Arctic annual air temperatures from October 2021 to September 2022 were the sixth warmest dating back to 1900, continuing a decades-long trend in which Arctic air temperatures have warmed faster than the global average. The Arctic's seven warmest years since 1900 have been the last seven years.

Arctic sea ice extent (coverage) was higher than many recent years, but much lower than the long-term average. Multiyear ice extent, sea-ice thickness and volume rebounded after a near-record low in 2021, but was below conditions in the 1980s and 1990s, with older ice extremely rare. Open water developed near the North Pole for much of the summer, allowing polar-class tourist and research vessels easy access. The Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage were also largely open.

The 2021-2022 Arctic snow season saw a combination of above-average snow accumulation but early snowmelt, consistent with long-term trends of shortening snow seasons in several areas.

The August 2022 sea surface temperatures continued to show a warming trend that has been observed since 1982 for much of the ice-free Arctic Ocean. In the Barents and Laptev seas, August 2022 mean sea surface temperatures were 3.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2 to 3°C) warmer than 1991–2020 August mean values while unusually cool August sea surface temperatures of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) below the trend occurred in the Chukchi Sea, likely driven by late-summer sea ice in the region that was kept in place by the winds.

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• Study : Heart disease deaths linked to extreme temps

One in 100 heart disease deaths are tied to days with extremely hot or cold temperatures, according to a study published Monday.

The big picture: The research demonstrates the deadly intersection between weather extremes and cardiovascular disease on a multinational scale.

Details: Researchers looked at extreme temperature associations of more than 32 million cardiovascular deaths that occurred over 40 years for the study published in the American Heart Association's journal Circulation.

• They built a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death — encompassing all CVD causes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and arrhythmia — in 567 cities, 27 countries and across five continents between 1979 and 2019.
• Temperature thresholds for extreme hot and cold days varied in each city analyzed, but were defined by researchers as the top 1% or lowest 1% of the temperature at which the lowest death rate is achieved.

By the numbers: Roughly 11.3 additional deaths out of every 1,000 cardiovascular deaths analyzed were attributed to extreme temperature days, the study found.

• That breaks down as 2.2 additional deaths experienced by heart disease patients on extreme hot days, while 9.1 additional deaths were experienced on extreme cold days.
• This escalating risk applied to multiple common cardiovascular conditions, but was especially pronounced for people with heart failure.
• On extreme hot days, 2.6 additional deaths were experienced by heart failure patients, while 12.8 additional deaths were experienced by heart failure patients on extreme cold days — a respective 12% and 37% greater risk of death compared to moderate climate days.
• In cities like Baltimore, researchers categorized extreme hot and cold temperatures as exceeding 86°F and dropping below 20°F.

Of note: Haitham Khraishah, a co-author of the study and cardiovascular disease fellow at the University of Maryland School of Medicine and University of Maryland Medical Center, told Axios in an email that their work highlights the need for adaptation measures, particularly for "vulnerable individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular diseases."

• "Our study underscores the urgent need to develop measures that will help our society mitigate the impact of climate change on cardiovascular disease," said Khraishah.

The intrigue: Although study authors link the effects of climate change to the extreme temperatures influencing increased mortality rates, winters have warmed in 97% of 238 U.S. locations since 1970, shrinking cold snaps and increasing annual minimal temperatures, according to data by Climate Central.

• Research shows climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, such as heat waves.

Yes, but: Limitations of the new study include an under-representation of data from South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, which authors acknowledge could be downplaying the overall health impacts of extreme heat.

What they're saying: Sameed Khatana, cardiologist at the Philadelphia VA Medical Center and assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, told Axios in an email that the study expands on prior research.

• "Studies such as this one suggest that as climate change continues to lead to an increase in extreme weather events, the health effects from these events will continue to grow," Khatana, who is not affiliated with the study, said.

The bottom line: "Health care providers, public health leaders, and policy makers need to be aware of this, and efforts to mitigate this, as well as to tackle climate change more broadly, need to be made," Khatana said.

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• Global coal use hits all-time high

Global coal usage has reached an all-time high in 2022 amid the disruption of traditional trade flows, soaring costs and increased demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA said in a report that worldwide coal usage is set to surpass 8 billion metric tons for the first time this year following the chaos of a global energy crisis. A metric ton is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms.

The report states that fossil fuel prices, particularly for natural gas, have substantially increased throughout the year, causing “a wave” of consumers switching fuels from gas. This has caused an increase in demand for fuel sources with more competitive prices, including coal in certain regions of the world.

The amount of coal used in producing electricity is expected to increase by roughly 2 percent compared to last year, according to the agency.

But the IEA noted that higher coal prices, the deployment of renewable energy sources and weakening global economic growth are limiting the overall increase in the demand for coal.

China accounts for just more than half of all coal consumption, according to the report, but its “prolonged and stringent” COVID-19 policy — known as the country’s “zero COVID” effort — has hurt economic activity and undermined the demand for coal.

The report states that Europe has been one of the hardest-hit regions by the global energy crisis due to its reliance on Russia for natural gas. Europe has previously imported roughly 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, including through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, but Russia has cut off most of Europe’s access as part of its attempt to deter European support for Ukraine amid the Russian invasion that began in February.

Some European countries have responded by increasing their generation of coal, accelerating their deployment of renewable energy and sometimes extending the lifespans of their nuclear power plants, the report says.

Some coal plants that had been shut down or left in reserve have reentered the market. In most countries, these plants only offered a limited amount of coal power capacity, but in Germany the reversal was of a “significant scale,” the IEA noted, boosting coal power generation within the European Union.

The IEA expects that increased efforts to improve energy efficiency and expand renewable energy sources will cause the EU’s coal generation and demand to drop as soon as 2024, however.

The report states that global coal demand will likely plateau from 2022 through 2025, but much of that outlook could rely on China, where coal consumption grew sharply in 2021 but is expected to grow only modestly in the next few years because of an increase in renewable power generation.

Coal use is projected to continue to drop in the United States and fall substantially in the EU by 2025.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...e-high-report/

NASA – November 2022 was the 12^th warmest November recorded and December – November 2022 was the 5^th warmest December – November recorded

NASA

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• EU reaches deal on emissions trading, social climate fund

European Union governments and lawmakers reached a deal Sunday on key elements of the 27-nation bloc's green deal, reforming the EU's trading system for greenhouse gas emissions and creating a new hardship fund for those hardest-hit by measures to curb climate change.

The two sides agreed to push European industries and energy companies to cut their emissions by speeding up the phase-out of free pollution vouchers. Doing so makes each ton of carbon dioxide that's released into the atmosphere more expensive for polluters.

The EU's executive Commission said the measure would require European industries to reduce their emissions by 62% by 2030 from 2005 levels, compared to a target of 43% under the previous rules.

To ensure a level playing field, the EU will also introduce a tax on foreign companies that want to import products which don't meet climate-protection standards European companies have to comply with. The so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was agreed to last week.

Governments and the European Parliament also agreed to extend the bloc's emissions trading system to cover road transport and the heating of buildings from 2027. This is likely to raise the price of gasoline, natural gas and other fossil fuels for consumers, providing an incentive to switch to cleaner alternatives.

The deal includes an emergency clause allowing the introduction to be postponed by a year if energy costs are particularly high.

Against the backdrop of the current energy crisis that has stoked inflation in Europe and beyond, negotiators agreed to also create a social climate fund that will help vulnerable households and small businesses cope with higher costs for fuel arising from the new measures.

The fund comprising tens of billions of euros will be phased in from 2026 and filled with proceeds from the auction of emissions vouchers.

“We can now safely say that the EU has delivered on its promises with ambitious legislation and this puts us at the forefront of fighting climate change globally,” said Czech Environment Minister Marian Jurecka, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency.

The provisional agreement needs to be formally adopted by the EU Parliament and governments. It is part of the bloc's broader ‘ Fit for 55 ’ package intended to help the EU cut its emissions by 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels and achieve “net zero" by mid-century.

Separately Sunday, countries that are part of the North Seas Energy Cooperation were expected to sign an agreement with Britain on working together to expand the construction of offshore wind power and electricity interconnectors. The deal also envisages cooperation on the production of hydrogen with renewable energy.

The United Kingdom, which left the North Seas Energy Cooperation agreement when it quit the EU in 2020, already has the biggest installed capacity for offshore wind power in Europe. With further expansion planned, Britain could become a major exporter of wind power to continental Europe in future.

EU reaches deal on critical climate policy after marathon talks

Berkeley Earth – November 2022 was the 11^th warmest November recorded

2022 is predicted to be the 5^th warmest year recorded.

Berkeley Earth

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2022 year end numbers will be released within the first two weeks of 2023. A preview of one small area……

• 2022 provisionally warmest year on record for UK

2022 will be the warmest year on record for the UK, according to provisional Met Office figures.

All four seasons have fallen in the top ten in a series which began in 1884 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 2003.

As well as setting a new 139-year annual mean temperature record, 2022 will also be remembered for several other significant weather events.

• Exceptionally warm start to New Year
• Storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin occurring within a week in February
• Dry first half of year
• Record-breaking temperature at Coningsby in July
• Cold spell in early December

Temperature

Warmest year on record

2022 will see the highest annual average temperature across the UK, exceeding the previous record set in 2014 when the average was 9.88C. Since 1884, all the ten years recording the highest annual temperature have occurred from 2003. The final provisional figure for 2022 will be available at the conclusion of the year and will then be subject to further quality control and a verification process.

2022 will also be the warmest year on record in the 364-year Central England temperature series from 1659, the world’s longest instrumental record of temperature.

Dr Mark McCarthy is the head of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre. He said: “2022 is going to be the warmest year on record for the UK. While many will remember the summer’s extreme heat, what has been noteworthy this year has been the relatively consistent heat through the year, with every month except December being warmer than average.

“The warm year is in line with the genuine impacts we expect as a result of human-induced climate change. Although it doesn’t mean every year will be the warmest on record, climate change continues to increase the chances of increasingly warm years over the coming decades.”

High temperatures start the year

The year started with a mild theme with New Year’s Day the warmest on record according to maximum temperature. 16.3C was recorded at St James’s Park, London and that mild theme was replicated through much of 2022 with more warmer than average days and fewer cooler than average days.

Temperatures remained above average for every month of the year in 2022, except December which has been cooler than average so far. While many will remember the unprecedented heat of July, it is the persistence of warmer than average conditions that have resulted in 2022 breaking the annual temperature record.

Summer temperature

The fourth warmest summer in the series for the UK was underlined with temperatures in excess of 40C recorded in the UK for the first time. Coningsby, Lincolnshire, recorded the highest temperature, with 40.3C exceeding the previous UK record by 1.6C. The hot period in July saw the Met Office issue its first ever red warning for extreme heat with widespread impacts for the UK. Wales also recorded a new daily maximum temperature record of 37.1C, with Scotland seeing a new record of 34.8C.

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• Gavin Schmidt - Last day of the year so how did I do predicting this years temperature anomaly and what will 2023 show? https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/s...31320047665152

For pickel. My opinion……Science and continued awareness, rule.

• JMA – November 2022 was the 7^th warmest November recorded

Japan Meteorological Agency

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• Slashing greenhouse gas emissions key to saving Earth's glaciers, study finds

Earth's glaciers could be at least partially saved if greenhouse gas emissions and resulting global warming were limited to the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goals, a new study finds.

Why it matters: Glaciers are a vital source of freshwater for nearly 2 billion people, and their melt contributes to sea level rise.

Currently, the vast majority of the planet's glaciers are melting and shrinking in response to higher temperatures, greater rainfall and increased ocean temperatures that can eat away at the floating ice shelves of marine-terminating glaciers.
The new study gives a fresh look at the fate of every glacier on Earth in a warming world, providing new melt projections and regional details.

What they found: The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, takes a global view of the planet's land-based glaciers using computer modeling that incorporates many different scenarios of future emissions and temperature change.

The study found that even if temperature increases are limited to the most ambitious Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels, the world would still lose about half the world's glaciers — albeit mostly smaller ones — by 2100.

Globally, glaciers are projected to lose 26% of their mass by 2100, compared to 2015, if air temperatures reach 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, according to the study. Many climate scientists already think the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal is no longer achievable due to emissions trends and warming to date.

Global glaciers could lose about 41% of their mass, compared to 2015 levels, if warming was to reach 4°C (7.2°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100, the study found.

Such mass loss figures mean that between 49% and 83% of glaciers would disappear by the end of the century, depending on the amount of warming.

Several recent studies have shown that if countries meet their emissions reduction pledges made at COP26 and COP27, the world would warm between about 2°C and 3°C by 2100.

This would "cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100," the study states.

In other words, Glacier National Park would need a new name, coastal Alaska may lose the glaciers that attract tourists to cruises along the Inside Passage, and the Alps will see their remaining glaciers disappear, among other regions.

Yes, but: The study's results show that there is a linear relationship between ice mass loss and the increase in global temperatures.

"That means any reduction in temperature increase is going to considerably reduce the glacier mass loss, the number of glaciers lost, and the glaciers' contributions to sea level rise," lead author David Rounce of Carnegie Mellon University told Axios.

The intrigue: The sea level rise consequences of glacier loss are far smaller than that of Earth's land-based ice sheets but still consequential.

Global sea levels could rise between 90 and 154 millimeters, or 3.5 to 6 inches, due to glacier loss by 2100, depending on the amount of warming, the study warned.

Glaciers were responsible for contributing about 21% of global sea level rise from 2000 to 2019, the study said.

What they're saying: "It's useful they found the glacier loss scales in a simple manner with air temperature, leading to the obvious conclusion that limiting warming through carbon emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal has the effect of pressing on the brakes to slow the ice loss and its overall negative consequences," said Jason Box, a climate researcher with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland who was not involved in this study.

The bottom line: "Losing our glaciers will impact the management of freshwater resources and the local populations which depend on them. It will exacerbate soil erosion and landslides, and destroy our natural landscape," said Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California Irvine, via email.

"We keep repeating the same message about glacier loss," Rignot, who was not involved in the study, told Axios. "This is bad, bad news. And every 1/10th degree of warming makes it worse."

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• Climate impact labels could help promote sustainable food choices: study

Labels placed on fast food items highlighting their high climate impact may sway consumers to make more sustainable choices, new study results show.

Food accounts for around one-third of all human-made greenhouse gas emissions, while animal-based foods like red meat and dairy products make up a large proportion of these emissions.

Researchers carried out a randomized clinical trial with over 5,000 participants to determine whether calling attention to red meat’s climate impact could change consumer menu selections.

Individuals were shown a sample online fast food menu and asked to select an item for dinner.

A control group received a menu with a quick response code label on all items and no climate labels. Another group received a menu with green low-climate impact labels, positively framing options like fish, chicken, or vegetarian options. The third group received a menu with red high-climate labels on items containing red meat, negatively framing the options.

Results showed 23 percent more participants in the high climate label group ordered a sustainable, non-red meat option, and ten percent more in the low-climate group ordered a sustainable option, compared with controls.

“In the United States, meat consumption, red meat consumption in particular, consistently exceeds recommended levels based on national dietary guidelines,” researchers wrote in the study.

“Shifting current dietary patterns toward more sustainable diets with lower amounts of red meat consumed could reduce diet-related [greenhouse gas emissions] by up to 55 [percent].”

Excess red meat consumption can also be harmful to human health and has been linked with increased risks of diabetes and certain cancers. Fast food restaurants are a key source of red meat in many Americans’ diets, authors noted, adding more than one-third of U.S. individuals consume fast food on a given day.

“These results suggest that menu labeling, particularly labels warning that an item has high climate impact, can be an effective strategy for encouraging more sustainable food choices in a fast food setting,” said lead study author Julia Wolfson in a statement. Wolfson is an associate professor in the department of international health at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Participants were also asked to rate how healthy they perceived their order to be. No food items included in the study were considered healthy based on Nutrition Profile Index scores.

Regardless of the climate label, those who selected a non-beef option perceived their choice to be healthier than those who selected a red meat item, researchers found.

These results suggest climate labels may make a food item seem more healthy than it is.

“An undeserved health halo conferred to unhealthy menu items could encourage their overconsumption,” said Wolfson. “So we have to look for labeling strategies that create ‘win-wins’ for promoting both more sustainable and healthy choices.”

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• Zack Labe - The lack of #Antarctic sea ice going into the new year is clearly an outlier compared to any other year in our satellite record. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1609988749471121408

Copernicus – December 2022 was the 7^th warmest December recorded

And 2022 was the 5^th warmest year recorded

Copernicus

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• Ocean heat sets another record high

The ocean saw record high temperatures once again in 2022, according to new research published on Tuesday.

“The inexorable climb in ocean temperatures is the inevitable outcome of Earth’s energy imbalance, primarily associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases,” said the paper, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

Ocean temperatures, which are measured in zettajoules (ZJ), have typically increased by about 5.3 ZJ or 5.5 ZJ a year over the last six decades, according to NOAA and CAS, respectively. However, between 2021 and 2022, ocean temperatures increased by about 9.1 ZJ or 10.9 ZJ, according to the two data sets.

https://link.springer.com/content/pd...=inline%20link

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• Ozone on track to heal completely in our lifetime, UN environment agency declares on World Day.

The Earth’s ozone layer is slowly recovering, UN report finds

The Earth’s protective ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades, closing an ozone hole that was first noticed in the 1980s, a United Nations-backed panel of experts announced on Monday.

The findings of the scientific assessment, which is published every four years, follow the landmark Montreal Protocol in 1987, which banned the production and consumption of chemicals that eat away at the planet’s ozone layer.

The ozone layer in the upper atmosphere protects the Earth from the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, which is linked to skin cancer, eye cataracts, compromised immune systems and agricultural land damage.

Scientists said the recovery is gradual and will take many years. If current policies remain in place, the ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 levels — before the appearance of the ozone hole — by 2040, the report said, and will return to normal in the Arctic by 2045. Additionally, Antarctica could experience normal levels by 2066.

Scientists and environmental groups have long lauded the global ban of ozone-depleting chemicals as one of the most critical environmental achievements to date, and it could set a precedent for broader regulation of climate-warming emissions.

“Ozone action sets a precedent for climate action,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done — as a matter of urgency — to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase.”

Scientists said that global emissions of the banned chemical chlorofluorocarbon-11, or CFC-11, which was used as a refrigerant and in insulating foams, have declined since 2018 after increasing unexpectedly for several years. A large portion of the unexpected CFC-11 emissions originated from eastern China, the report said.

The report also found that the ozone-depleting chemical chlorine declined 11.5% in the stratosphere since it peaked in 1993, while bromine declined 14.5% since it peaked in 1999.

Scientists also warned that efforts to artificially cool the Earth by injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight could thin the ozone layer, and cautioned that further research into emerging technologies like geoengineering is necessary.

Researchers with the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Environment Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the European Commission contributed to the assessment.

_________

Looking ahead

• Global warming is about to accelerate

Believe it or not, average global surface temperatures have actually been relatively cool over the last three years — but that's about to change.

Why it matters: Temperatures are expected to jump this year — and 2024 could set a new global record.

The big picture: A rare "triple dip" La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean kept temperatures in check in 2022, with the year ranking fifth-warmest since instrument records began.

• La Niña events are characterized by cooler-than-average waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, and tend to put a lid on global temperatures.
• But 2022 still wound up as the fifth warmest year on record according to NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. And if the phenomena dissipates, as forecasts increasingly indicate, global temperatures would likely jump this year and even more so next year.
• If an El Niño event — characterized by milder than average ocean temperatures — sets in across the tropical Pacific, 2023 could even meet or come close to hitting a record high.

What they're saying: "I forecast about a 15% possibility of a new record in 2023. And if we are in an El Niño by the end of 2023, an almost certainty of a new record in 2024," Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told Axios via email.
Zoom in: According to NASA, the record-warmest year occurred in 2020 and 2016, the latter of which occurred when there was a major El Niño underway. This has led some climate change doubters to claim that global warming halted in 2016.

• However, surface temperatures are just one sign of global warming. Other climate indicators all showed signs of continued global warming during 2022. Ocean heat content hit a record high, a recent study found.
• Glaciers continued to shrink, sea levels kept rising, and extreme weather and climate events continued to batter countries around the world.
• Studies tied many of these deadly extreme events to human-caused climate change.

What's next: This year looks milder than the last few years have been. It has a decent chance of at least making it into the top five, if not the top three warmest years, depending on how a transition to an El Niño plays out.

• Then 2024 has a higher likelihood of setting a new record, scientists told Axios. This is in part because there is a lag in the atmosphere's response to El Niño.

Threat level: The U.K. Met Office is forecasting that global average temperatures in 2023 will be at least 1.2°C (2.16°F) above the pre-industrial average. Keep in mind that the Paris Agreement tries to limit warming to 1.5°C.

• If warming exceeds this goal, studies show, the odds of potentially devastating climate change consequences will increase, such as greater melting of the polar ice sheets and the loss of tropical coral reefs.
• Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, said 2023 looks warmer than the past few years, but pinpointing exactly how much is difficult at this point.
• "Given lags in the surface temperature response a transition to El Niño conditions in the latter half of 2023 would have more of an impact on 2024," he said via email.

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/14/glo...celerates-2023

^Konstantin Kisin the Russian-British comedian makes one good observation. That is, making scientific and technological breakthroughs will help with climate change.

Hopefully the young audience he’s trying to reach will disregard everything else he says as noise.