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  1. #3176
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world
    People know all to well how China deals with its new power - to the detriment of many

  2. #3177
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    SWIFT has two data centres in Europe and one in the US. Given that data centres are usually at the hub of network traffic, I'll let you do the maths.
    Wondering if Denmark is the best location for your new data centre? Just ask Apple, Facebook and Google.

    Yeah, Baby

  3. #3178
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Yesterday The Times, today The Telegraph.

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world

    October 23, 20205 min read

    Ray Dalio of Bridgewater:
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The case for investing in China remains intact

    Published 20 October 2020

    Tom Stevenson Investment Director

    "
    Important information: The value of investments and the income from them, can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

    This article first appeared in the Telegraph

    The pandemic was made in China, but its impact has been significantly greater in Europe and the Americas, both north and south. Despite accounting for nearly 60% of the global population, Asia has had less than 15% of Covid-related deaths this year. Europe, with less than 10% of the world’s people, accounts for nearly a third of all deaths. Same story in north America.


    Today’s third quarter GDP figures from China will show how this materially better pandemic performance is showing up in the economic data. First in, first out and a much steeper recovery path too. Credit Suisse thinks that by the end of next year China’s economic output will be 11% above its pre-virus level while the US, Europe and Japan will still be catching up. While services have been disrupted more than manufacturing during the West’s extended lockdowns, China’s non-manufacturing new orders are at an eight-year high.


    China’s recovery is impressive. GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 when we were still kidding ourselves that this was an ‘over there’ sort of problem. It then rebounded by 3.2% in the second quarter and will probably match today’s third quarter growth in the last three months of the year, with a rise of at least 5%. At the start of next year, when the year-on-year comparison will be most favourable, activity could surge by as much as 15%.

    China is the only region where supply and demand have both recovered. It has achieved this with a much smaller fiscal stimulus package than has been employed, to less effect, in the West. By increasing its share of exports, it has managed to grow while still increasing its current account surplus. And it has, so far, avoided the second waves that are currently engulfing Europe. A string of vaccines is in development.

    All of this has not gone unnoticed by the stock market. Last week, the total value of Chinese shares climbed above $10trn, a record high and more than during the previous peak in 2015, which prompted a global stock market collapse after Beijing clamped down on over-enthusiastic Chinese day traders.

    The main Chinese index, the CSI 300, which tracks shares in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, has risen by nearly a fifth this year. That’s twice as much as Wall Street. Heavy inflows from foreign investors have pushed the value of the renminbi sharply higher, a trend that has been exacerbated by weakness in the US dollar.


    Although the overall valuation of the Chinese market does not look excessive, there are pockets of real over-exuberance. Just as the Nasdaq index has diverged from the rest of the US market, technology, consumer and healthcare growth stocks have parted company from stodgier petrochemical and financial shares which are bringing the averages lower. An index of these super-charged growth shares has risen by 76% so far this year while value shares have basically moved sideways over the same period.


    The long-term case for investing in China remains intact. In fact, you could argue that the shift in the world’s economic centre of gravity from West to East is just another structural theme that has been accelerated by the pandemic. Coronavirus has caused some fundamental changes in the way that businesses and whole industries now operate. In particular, global supply chains are being replaced by a more regional approach and this has reduced Asia’s dependence on the health of Europe and America. Today around 60% of all trade in Asia happens within the region.


    The big growth in our dependence on technology and the increasing digitisation of the economy also plays to China’s strengths quite as much as it favours the FAANGs in California. China has a strong digital infrastructure and the region as a whole is at the forefront of new technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence. Big business opportunities like autonomous driving are as likely to take off in Asia, with its technological edge and more modern infrastructure, as they are in Europe or the US.


    If this sounds too good to be true, then it’s worth thinking what could derail China’s post-pandemic leadership. One concern is the dependence of the Chinese economy on a property sector that remains a key growth driver despite President Xi’s reminder three years ago that ‘homes are for living in, not speculating on’. Beijing may want to rein in China’s property developers, but it is reluctant to undermine a sector which underpins everything from industrial demand to the finances of local governments.


    Investors in China also need to keep an eye on the forthcoming US Presidential election. The pandemic has overshadowed the trade tensions that dominated macro-economic debate a year ago but the stand-off between Washington and Beijing has been parked to one side, not resolved. A Joe Biden Presidency would probably be less combative and good for Chinese equities in the short-term, but there is bi-partisan support for taming the beast from the east. Trade remains a key risk.

    Finally, the Chinese consumer may be gaining in confidence after seven months of year-on-year falls in retail spending, but August’s 0.5% improvement was tepid. Spending by tourists during the recent Golden Week holiday was 30% lower than last year, for example.

    So, there are good reasons for China’s strong stock market performance this year but also a few reasons to tread carefully. A well-balanced portfolio is likely to have a decent exposure to China. It represents the future and, as they say, you should skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. But there is a good case for hedging your bets too. One way to play the China growth story, without paying the punchy valuations attached to the likes of Tencent and Alibaba today might be the big Western commodity companies. Miners are out of favour, but if anyone does well out of China’s recovery, they will.


    Important information
    : Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Overseas investments will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities and is included for the purposes of illustration only. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to an authorised financial adviser.


    https://cat.fidelity.co.uk/markets-i...emains-intact/
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  4. #3179
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Does it publish those facts?
    Yes on its website.

    Visa, for example, is similarly funded by its members based on transactions fees. It has two data centers in the US, one in Europe and one in Asia.

    Why do you think that is?

  5. #3180
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Why do you think that is?
    Western US-led monopolkapitalism and anti-Chinese hegemonic racism

  6. #3181
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Western US-led monopolkapitalism and anti-Chinese hegemonic racism
    I think even HooHoo can actually work out the real reason.

  7. #3182
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post

    The case for investing in China remains intact
    I'm more interested that the chinkies stop blocking the Wuhan Virus investigation than whether or not it's worth investing there.

    Especially as this one has had a significant effect on investors everywhere.

  8. #3183
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    ^It's not nice from them not disclosing all the details of the 2019 Military World Games in October 2019...

  9. #3184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    It's not nice
    for someone your age to be so utterly devoid of reason, but there you have it.

    I wonder how successful China is in this given the constant breaking of agreements for political advantage

  10. #3185
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    stop blocking the Wuhan Virus investigation
    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    the constant breaking of agreements for political advantage
    Last edited by OhOh; 27-10-2020 at 07:09 PM.

  11. #3186
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    Except it's not, OhOh . . . but then you think China is a 'Third World' country . . . fair enough.

    QED, eh.

  12. #3187
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    The US economy is the biggest monetary distortion in history. And this is the kinds of results it gets

    'Em. Does this look like the strongest economy in the world ?

    You can see that the US's death/despair index is at the same levels of Germany in 1990. The Germany that was half communist a year before

  13. #3188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    'Em. Does this look like the strongest economy in the world ?
    Erm, are you too stupid to know when th thread was started and what constitutes 'strongest'?

  14. #3189
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Erm, are you too stupid to know when th thread was started and what constitutes 'strongest'?

    The thread is a total US economy puff piece from post #1. And Deeks and another seppo, reaffirmed as much 2 pages ago.

  15. #3190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Deeks and another seppo, reaffirmed as much
    . . . but, but . . . they'll leave you just like Pseudo did. After you 'went to bat' for him/them.



    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    The thread is a total US economy puff piece from post #1.
    Umm, ok. If I find two posts, aside from deeks and 'another seppo', that are critical will you piss off, seeing as you're just talking shit again?

  16. #3191
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    Well there's the irony. Post- Covid, I think there are few mildly informed people who would argue that the USA is the world's strongest economy now. Enter the dreaded C word.

  17. #3192
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Enter the dreaded C word.
    Cvnt?

  18. #3193
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    That is merely your Opinion.

  19. #3194
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    Ah do declare, I know not what you're intimatin'

  20. #3195
    In Uranus
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    U.S. economy snaps contraction streak with 2.6 percent growth last quarter

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a better-than-expected 2.6% annual rate from July through September, snapping two straight quarters of economic contraction and overcoming punishingly high inflation and interest rates.

    Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department showed that the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of economic output — grew in the third quarter after having shrunk in the first half of 2022. Stronger exports and steady consumer spending, backed by a healthy job market, helped restore growth to the world’s biggest economy.

    Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, expanded at a 1.4% annual pace, down from a 2% rate from April through June. Last quarter’s growth also got a boost from exports, which shot up at an annual pace of 14.4%.

    Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation.

    The outlook for the overall economy has darkened. The Fed has raised interest rates five times this year and is set to do so again next week and in December. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the Fed’s hikes will bring “pain” in the form of higher unemployment and possibly a recession.

    The government’s latest GDP report comes as Americans, worried about inflation and the risk of recession, have begun to vote in midterm elections that will determine whether President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party retains control of Congress. Inflation has become a signature issue for Republican attacks on the Democrats’ stewardship of the economy.

    With inflation still near a 40-year high, steady price spikes have been pressuring households across the country. At the same time, rising interest rates have derailed the housing market and are likely to inflict broader damage over time. The outlook for the world economy, too, grows bleaker the longer that Russia’s war against Ukraine drags on.

    Last quarter’s U.S. economic growth reversed annual declines of 1.6% from January through March and 0.6% from April through June. Consecutive quarters of declining economic output are one informal definition of a recession. But most economists have said they believe the economy skirted a recession, noting the still-resilient job market and steady spending by consumers. Most of them have expressed concern, though, that a recession is likely next year as the Fed steadily tightens credit.

    Preston Caldwell, head of U.S. economics for the financial services firm Morningstar, noted that the economy’s contraction in the first half of the year was caused largely by factors that don’t reflect its underlying health and so “very likely did not constitute a genuine economic slowdown.” He pointed, for example, to a drop in business inventories, a cyclical event that tends to reverse itself over time.

    Higher borrowing costs have weakened the home market, in particular. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, just 3.09% a year ago, is approaching 7%. Sales of existing homes have fallen for eight straight months. Construction of new homes is down nearly 8% from a year ago.

    Still, the economy retains pockets of strength. One is the vitally important job market. Employers have added an average of 420,000 jobs a month this year, putting 2022 on track to be the second-best year for job creation (behind 2021) in Labor Department records going back to 1940. The unemployment rate was 3.5% last month, matching a half-century low.

    Hiring has been decelerating, though. In September, the economy added 263,000 jobs — solid but the lowest total since April 2021.

    International events are causing further concerns. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and raised prices of energy and food, creating a crisis for poor countries. The International Monetary Fund, citing the war, this month downgraded its outlook for the world economy in 2023.

    U.S. economy snaps contraction streak with 2.6 percent growth last quarter | PBS NewsHour

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