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  1. #3176
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world
    People know all to well how China deals with its new power - to the detriment of many

  2. #3177
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    SWIFT has two data centres in Europe and one in the US. Given that data centres are usually at the hub of network traffic, I'll let you do the maths.
    Wondering if Denmark is the best location for your new data centre? Just ask Apple, Facebook and Google.

    Yeah, Baby

  3. #3178
    Thailand Expat
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    Yesterday The Times, today The Telegraph.

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world

    October 23, 20205 min read

    Ray Dalio of Bridgewater:
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The case for investing in China remains intact

    Published 20 October 2020

    Tom Stevenson Investment Director

    "
    Important information: The value of investments and the income from them, can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

    This article first appeared in the Telegraph

    The pandemic was made in China, but its impact has been significantly greater in Europe and the Americas, both north and south. Despite accounting for nearly 60% of the global population, Asia has had less than 15% of Covid-related deaths this year. Europe, with less than 10% of the world’s people, accounts for nearly a third of all deaths. Same story in north America.


    Today’s third quarter GDP figures from China will show how this materially better pandemic performance is showing up in the economic data. First in, first out and a much steeper recovery path too. Credit Suisse thinks that by the end of next year China’s economic output will be 11% above its pre-virus level while the US, Europe and Japan will still be catching up. While services have been disrupted more than manufacturing during the West’s extended lockdowns, China’s non-manufacturing new orders are at an eight-year high.


    China’s recovery is impressive. GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 when we were still kidding ourselves that this was an ‘over there’ sort of problem. It then rebounded by 3.2% in the second quarter and will probably match today’s third quarter growth in the last three months of the year, with a rise of at least 5%. At the start of next year, when the year-on-year comparison will be most favourable, activity could surge by as much as 15%.

    China is the only region where supply and demand have both recovered. It has achieved this with a much smaller fiscal stimulus package than has been employed, to less effect, in the West. By increasing its share of exports, it has managed to grow while still increasing its current account surplus. And it has, so far, avoided the second waves that are currently engulfing Europe. A string of vaccines is in development.

    All of this has not gone unnoticed by the stock market. Last week, the total value of Chinese shares climbed above $10trn, a record high and more than during the previous peak in 2015, which prompted a global stock market collapse after Beijing clamped down on over-enthusiastic Chinese day traders.

    The main Chinese index, the CSI 300, which tracks shares in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, has risen by nearly a fifth this year. That’s twice as much as Wall Street. Heavy inflows from foreign investors have pushed the value of the renminbi sharply higher, a trend that has been exacerbated by weakness in the US dollar.


    Although the overall valuation of the Chinese market does not look excessive, there are pockets of real over-exuberance. Just as the Nasdaq index has diverged from the rest of the US market, technology, consumer and healthcare growth stocks have parted company from stodgier petrochemical and financial shares which are bringing the averages lower. An index of these super-charged growth shares has risen by 76% so far this year while value shares have basically moved sideways over the same period.


    The long-term case for investing in China remains intact. In fact, you could argue that the shift in the world’s economic centre of gravity from West to East is just another structural theme that has been accelerated by the pandemic. Coronavirus has caused some fundamental changes in the way that businesses and whole industries now operate. In particular, global supply chains are being replaced by a more regional approach and this has reduced Asia’s dependence on the health of Europe and America. Today around 60% of all trade in Asia happens within the region.


    The big growth in our dependence on technology and the increasing digitisation of the economy also plays to China’s strengths quite as much as it favours the FAANGs in California. China has a strong digital infrastructure and the region as a whole is at the forefront of new technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence. Big business opportunities like autonomous driving are as likely to take off in Asia, with its technological edge and more modern infrastructure, as they are in Europe or the US.


    If this sounds too good to be true, then it’s worth thinking what could derail China’s post-pandemic leadership. One concern is the dependence of the Chinese economy on a property sector that remains a key growth driver despite President Xi’s reminder three years ago that ‘homes are for living in, not speculating on’. Beijing may want to rein in China’s property developers, but it is reluctant to undermine a sector which underpins everything from industrial demand to the finances of local governments.


    Investors in China also need to keep an eye on the forthcoming US Presidential election. The pandemic has overshadowed the trade tensions that dominated macro-economic debate a year ago but the stand-off between Washington and Beijing has been parked to one side, not resolved. A Joe Biden Presidency would probably be less combative and good for Chinese equities in the short-term, but there is bi-partisan support for taming the beast from the east. Trade remains a key risk.

    Finally, the Chinese consumer may be gaining in confidence after seven months of year-on-year falls in retail spending, but August’s 0.5% improvement was tepid. Spending by tourists during the recent Golden Week holiday was 30% lower than last year, for example.

    So, there are good reasons for China’s strong stock market performance this year but also a few reasons to tread carefully. A well-balanced portfolio is likely to have a decent exposure to China. It represents the future and, as they say, you should skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. But there is a good case for hedging your bets too. One way to play the China growth story, without paying the punchy valuations attached to the likes of Tencent and Alibaba today might be the big Western commodity companies. Miners are out of favour, but if anyone does well out of China’s recovery, they will.


    Important information
    : Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Overseas investments will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities and is included for the purposes of illustration only. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to an authorised financial adviser.


    https://cat.fidelity.co.uk/markets-i...emains-intact/
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  4. #3179
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Does it publish those facts?
    Yes on its website.

    Visa, for example, is similarly funded by its members based on transactions fees. It has two data centers in the US, one in Europe and one in Asia.

    Why do you think that is?

  5. #3180
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Why do you think that is?
    Western US-led monopolkapitalism and anti-Chinese hegemonic racism

  6. #3181
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Western US-led monopolkapitalism and anti-Chinese hegemonic racism
    I think even HooHoo can actually work out the real reason.

  7. #3182
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post

    The case for investing in China remains intact
    I'm more interested that the chinkies stop blocking the Wuhan Virus investigation than whether or not it's worth investing there.

    Especially as this one has had a significant effect on investors everywhere.

  8. #3183
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    ^It's not nice from them not disclosing all the details of the 2019 Military World Games in October 2019...

  9. #3184
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    It's not nice
    for someone your age to be so utterly devoid of reason, but there you have it.

    I wonder how successful China is in this given the constant breaking of agreements for political advantage

  10. #3185
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    stop blocking the Wuhan Virus investigation
    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    the constant breaking of agreements for political advantage
    Last edited by OhOh; 27-10-2020 at 07:09 PM.

  11. #3186
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Except it's not, OhOh . . . but then you think China is a 'Third World' country . . . fair enough.

    QED, eh.

  12. #3187
    Lone Monarchist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    The US economy is the biggest monetary distortion in history. And this is the kinds of results it gets

    'Em. Does this look like the strongest economy in the world ?

    You can see that the US's death/despair index is at the same levels of Germany in 1990. The Germany that was half communist a year before

  13. #3188
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    'Em. Does this look like the strongest economy in the world ?
    Erm, are you too stupid to know when th thread was started and what constitutes 'strongest'?

  14. #3189
    Lone Monarchist
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Erm, are you too stupid to know when th thread was started and what constitutes 'strongest'?

    The thread is a total US economy puff piece from post #1. And Deeks and another seppo, reaffirmed as much 2 pages ago.

  15. #3190
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Deeks and another seppo, reaffirmed as much
    . . . but, but . . . they'll leave you just like Pseudo did. After you 'went to bat' for him/them.



    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    The thread is a total US economy puff piece from post #1.
    Umm, ok. If I find two posts, aside from deeks and 'another seppo', that are critical will you piss off, seeing as you're just talking shit again?

  16. #3191
    Chinese spy
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    Well there's the irony. Post- Covid, I think there are few mildly informed people who would argue that the USA is the world's strongest economy now. Enter the dreaded C word.

  17. #3192
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Enter the dreaded C word.
    Cvnt?

  18. #3193
    Chinese spy
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    That is merely your Opinion.

  19. #3194
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    Ah do declare, I know not what you're intimatin'

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