The strongest economy in the world

**OhOh** · 28-08-2016, 02:18 PM

One assumes that the new healthcare pricing rates, which one allegedly can accept or refuse and stay with ones previous doctor, will increase Ameristans GDP even more next year.

**birding** · 20-09-2016, 08:10 PM

I suppose its debatable how a countries economy is measured one way could be how much debt the country is in possibly qualified by what sort of debt that is.
That would be the way a persons economy would be measured, if your debt was greater than your income (ability to pay it off) then the debt will continue to grow.

So what is the US debt as a percentage of GDP at present 104.5% of GDP to make things worse most of that debt is external that is it is owed to other countries.

There are 10 countries with higher debt to GDP Japan being top of the list with 229.2% but that debt is said to be mainly internal, that is owed to the people of the country which is said to be easier to handle.

Interestingly Russia which we have recently been told is coming close to running out of money : Russia is seriously running out of cash - Sep. 16, 2016. Has a debt to GDP ratio of 17.7% and China the so called number 2 world economy 49.9%.

Country List Government Debt to GDP

**OhOh** · 27-10-2016, 12:57 PM

China's Sept. industrial profit growth decelerates to 7.7 pct - People's Daily Online

On the face of it the worlds largest economy is crashing.

Reports of a 50% drop in GP are the headlines. It appears the August yoy industrial profits went to 7.7% as opposed to the August figure of 19.5%.

However the drop returns to near the average of 8.4 for the first 9 months of this year.

These are of course Chinas official figures so we don't need to worry.

"BEIJING, Oct. 27 -- China's industrial profits rose 7.7 percent year on year to 577.13 billion yuan (85.25 billion U.S. dollars) in September, official data showed Thursday. The growth rate was slower than the 19.5-percent increase registered in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS attributed the deceleration to slowing profit growth of electronics, steel and power sectors as well as the weakening effect of a low base.

"The September deceleration shows that industrial profits return to stable growth," said NBS statistician He Ping.
In the first nine months of the year, industrial profits expanded 8.4 percent year on year, same as the January-August period. The bureau's calculations include companies with annual revenues exceeding 20 million yuan."

**OhOh** · 27-10-2016, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by birding

Interestingly Russia which we have recently been told is coming close to running out of money : Russia is seriously running out of cash - Sep. 16, 2016. Has a debt to GDP ratio of 17.7% and China the so called number 2 world economy 49.9%

Ameristan is OK, at 104%, owed to the global market.
Japan is OK, at 229%, as it's generally owed to it's own citizens.

but

Russia is in trouble, at 17.7% owed to the global market.
China is in trouble, at 49.9, as i's debt generally owed to it's own citizens.

Care to give guidance on your reasoning?

**birding** · 19-12-2016, 06:38 PM

Sorry for the late reply been on the road for the last month.

Not my reasoning at all, the article was about the collapse of China and Russia so I did some reading to attempt to see why and what you have quoted is the result.

Looks more like the US economy is on the brink of collapse and this is predicted by those who have been right before :

Man who predicted Trump victory makes next shocking prediction?. - MoneyWise 411

This one ultimately tries to sell you something but.......

https://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/urg...edium=exchange

I take an interest in this because what happens to the so called biggest economy in the world impacts in every part of the world including you and me as was shown in 2008.

Should the US economy collapse what will they have left ? Well the strongest military in the world and their nukes and of course it will be someone else's fault (as we see with Trump being elected) so would they attack that someone else as a last desperate measure to prove their strength ?

**birding** · 22-12-2016, 08:27 PM

A cross over between 2 topics is apparent here :

https://teakdoor.com/speakers-corner/...ivilian-4.html

But they both point in the same direction, to the financial collapse of the USA.

**OhOh** · 23-12-2016, 08:53 AM

We can only "hope" the new POTUSE will deliver a "change" in direction. Unfortunately as the current one promised the same and delivered the opposite I may die of old age before it occurs.

**baldrick** · 23-12-2016, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by birding

But they both point in the same direction, to the financial collapse of the USA

I think it is more than just the seppo economy - but it will not happen next week

they may be able to kick the can up the road for a while longer - but things need to swing back toward equilibrium , and for sure it will be the less fortunate that are in for the most pain

Bond markets: After 30-year bull run, global bonds routed on Trump worries

An almost 9 per cent surge on Wall Street in the wake of the US election and a $US3 trillion flow of funds into global stocks has put a glow on the face of most Australians, hopeful they'll see a significant jump in the value of their superannuation balances for the December half-year.

But there has been an equally painful flipside that could take the shine off those returns.

After a 30-year bull run, there has been a rout on global bond markets since Donald Trump was declared President elect, with close to $US3 trillion flowing out of bonds across the globe.

As an investment vehicle, government bonds usually slip below the radar despite their size and influence on everything from interest rates to shares and property.

Think of the world's stock markets and add 20 per cent — that's the $US82 trillion bond market.

"It's much more dynamic and it's much more fascinating," superannuation ratings group Rainmaker chief researcher Alex Dunnin said.

For almost three decades, interest rates have been falling, driven lower by declining fuel prices, lower inflation as a result of cheaper Chinese manufactured goods and increased global competition.

That has seen bond prices on a seemingly relentless march north that only accelerated after the Global Financial Crisis when central banks flooded the world with cheap cash via the financial alchemy known as Quantitative Easing.

Governments, including the US, UK, European Union and Japan, issued vast amounts of new government bonds and then ordered their central banks to snap them up on the secondary market.

Major investors jumped aboard the trade, accumulating vast war-chests of government bonds, driving prices higher and yields, or interest rates, lower.

"Serious investors trade bonds like we trade shares, so they're actively in their moving those things every day," Mr Dunnin said.

Donald Trump's win, however, and his promise to spend big on infrastructure, has changed perceptions. Now there is a concern that inflation once again may grab hold as the US economy strengthens, prompting investors to dump government bonds.

"There's this sense that the population has spoken and that there's a need to switch away from monetary policy to fiscal policy," UBS Australia's head of fixed income Anne Anderson said.

Higher inflation means higher interest rates, and that means lower bond prices. Savvy investors began abandoning bonds in the election aftermath which quickly snowballed.

Super funds caught holding global bonds will have to account for those losses in the December quarter. Some of Australia's best performing funds in recent years have been heavily exposed to global bonds although many would have reduced their holdings as the rout gathered pace in November.

"They're not going to be smashed but they are going to be re-strategising and fast," Mr Dunnin said.

Longer term, the impact of rising interest rates is likely to have greater ramifications for super funds on their property and infrastructure investments.

"If interest rates go up, normally the value of those assets would decline and they tend to be more long term investments, so less liquid," Ms Anderson said.

Whether rates keep rising depends on whether Donald Trump backs his words with actions.

Bond markets: After 30-year bull run, global bonds routed on Trump worries - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

**birding** · 23-12-2016, 04:51 PM

Yes Europe is not looking to bright either.

Italy’s Banks Are in a Slow-Motion Crisis. And Europe May Pay.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/bu...-pay.html?_r=0

EU on brink of 'terrifying crisis' Five of Europe's big banks are in danger, warns expert

EU on brink of 'terrifying crisis' 5 of Europe's big banks in grave danger, warns expert | City & Business | Finance | Daily Express

The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro

The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down ? and the Euro

**OhOh** · 26-12-2016, 03:05 PM

An aid to the outgoing president has admitted only 6% of new jobs created in the last 8 years were full time, employed, with benefits.

"Krueger, who until 2013 was also the top White House economist serving as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, was "surprised" by the finding. Quoted by quartz, he said “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment"

Top Ex-White House Economist Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time | Zero Hedge

**Cold Pizza** · 28-12-2016, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

An aid to the outgoing president has admitted only 6% of new jobs created in the last 8 years were full time, employed, with benefits.

"Krueger, who until 2013 was also the top White House economist serving as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, was "surprised" by the finding. Quoted by quartz, he said “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment"

Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time | Zero Hedge[/url]

Yet the Mainstream Media, Obama, and the Clinton Campaign created and perpetuated the narrative that the US economy had recovered and things were going well.

Things are NOT going well.

**OhOh** · 29-12-2016, 03:32 PM

Originally Posted by Cold Pizza

Things are NOT going well.

Mr Trump will ensure all jobs are returned to Ameristan until the last taxpayers dollar and foreign treasury note is ripped from his cold dead hand.

**Cold Pizza** · 29-12-2016, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by Cold Pizza

Things are NOT going well.

Mr Trump will ensure all jobs are returned to Ameristan until the last taxpayers dollar and foreign treasury note is ripped from his cold dead hand.

I assume you're joking and I'm glad you keep this thread alive, OhOh.

This thread can still have value if posters like Sabang, you, and some enlightened others keep it going.

As for "returning" jobs to America, a small minutia may return, but that political rhetoric will not be realized.

As we know it's a global labor and production market. Labor and productions costs will be located at or near the cheapest location.

The Fed will raise interest rates a whopping .25, but rates are still basically, zero.

I'm going to start reading James Rickards latest book in about an hour, called "The Road to Ruin."

**david44** · 29-12-2016, 04:08 PM

Good stuff Pizzaman

While for desperate no welfare Thai any job selling garlands at smokey traffic lights, pushing 20 ladders around all day etc show folks will work if incentive.

However the quality of zero hour or very low paid casual work in a country with a medical mafia means the future for non unionised US labour is bleak.

Trump will push for workfare, blacks will riot and be imprisoned shot in larger numbers, token high profile deporations of Brown people wil be shown.

However you'll not likley see a white gardener in LA or maid in New York soon

**Cold Pizza** · 30-12-2016, 07:06 AM

Originally Posted by david44

Good stuff Pizzaman

Cheers, david.

I have over 1,500 deliveries under my belt.

I hope you continue to contribute in this thread.

While for desperate no welfare Thai any job selling garlands at smokey traffic lights, pushing 20 ladders around all day etc show folks will work if incentive.

However the quality of zero hour or very low paid casual work in a country with a medical mafia means the future for non unionised US labour is bleak.

Trump will push for workfare, blacks will riot and be imprisoned shot in larger numbers, token high profile deporations of Brown people wil be shown.

However you'll not likley see a white gardener in LA or maid in New York soon

Unions are endangered. Not many left. Deportations have been going on for decades, but not nearly enough. And they will just return. At about 45,000 illegals per month coming now.

In my hometown there are "white" garners and maids that are US citizens - and they are competing against illegals, which is ridiculous.

**OhOh** · 31-12-2016, 12:21 PM

Mr Trump is yet to be inaugurated. I have read of one company who intended to move production to Mexico. Mr.Trump had a few words, lo and behold, tax advantages or honeymoons suddenly made the move nonsense.

**Cold Pizza** · 08-01-2017, 08:35 PM

I'll put this here:

Manhattan culinary staple China Fun shutters, blaming government over-regulation
BY LARRY MCSHANE
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Saturday, January 7, 2017

Albert Wu, the son of China Fun’s owners, said the small business was impossible to maintain under a mountain of bureaucratic regulations. (HOWARD SIMMONS/NEW YORK DAILY NEWS)

For 25 years, China Fun was renowned for its peerless soup dumplings and piquant General Tso’s chicken.

What left a bad taste in the mouths of its owners and loyal patrons was the restaurant’s sudden Jan. 3 closing, blamed by management on suffocating government demands.

“The climate for small businesses like ours in New York have become such that it’s difficult to justify taking risks and running — nevermind starting — a legitimate mom-and-pop business,” read a letter posted by the owners in the restaurant’s front door.

“The state and municipal governments, with their punishing rules and regulations, seems to believe that we should be their cash machine to pay for all that ails us in society.”

“So sad to learn @ChinaFunNYC closed,” tweeted fitness blogger Amanda Lauren. “I grew up on the UES and it was my fav Chinese restaurant. Pouring out a green tea for you, China Fun.”

Albert Wu, whose parents Dorothea and Felix owned the eatery, said the endless paperwork and constant regulation that forced the shutdown accumulated over the years.

“When we started out in 1991, the lunch special was $4 a plate,” he recalled. “Now it’s $10, $12. The cost of doing business is just too onerous.”

e
Wu cited one regulation where the restaurant was required to provide an on-site break room for workers despite its limited space. And he blamed the amount of paperwork now required — an increasingly difficult task for a non-chain businesses.

“In a one-restaurant operation like ours, you’re spending more time on paperwork than you are trying to run your business,” he griped.

Increases in the minimum wage, health insurance and insurance added to a list of 10 issues provided by Wu. “And I haven’t even gone into the Health Department rules and regulations,” he added.

The de Blasio administration noted the city provides free help to small businesses. The “Small Business First” initiative helps owners save time and money while reducing the amount of paperwork.

Even the owner of Katz’s Deli is sad to see Carnegie Deli close
Free compliance advisors are available for on-sight consultation aimed at helping small businesses comply with regulations.

“The NYC Department of Small Business Services makes it easier for businesses to start, operate, and grow, including by helping businesses navigate important City regulations,” said spokesman Nick Benson.

But Adele Malpass, Manhattan Republican Party chairwoman, said the issues cited by the Wu family are common complaints.

“For smaller businesses like China Fun, each little thing that occurs makes it harder,” said Malpass. “Each regulation, each tax — you put it all together and it’s just a hostile business environment.”

NYC culinary staple China Fun shutters, blaming over-regulation - NY Daily News

**OhOh** · 11-01-2017, 09:06 AM

^ Meanwhile down at the quayside rooms re cheap and ladies are languishing until the sailors get leave. Qingdao is booming.

China meets 2016 economic targets - Global Times

"Xu estimated that China's GDP would expand by 6.7 percent in 2016, within the range of 6.5 percent to 7 percent set by the central government. Exact figures are to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) later.

The size of China's economy is expected to surpass 70 trillion yuan ($10 trillion) in 2016, increasing by about 5 trillion yuan over the previous year, equivalent to the total economy in 1994.

By contrast, in 2016, the US economy is forecast to expand by 1.6 percent and growth in Japan, the world's No.3 economy, is expected to stand at 0.5 percent, according to the IMF's world economy outlook released in October.

Xu's comments came after China released its 2016 full-year producer price index, a main gauge of inflation at the wholesale level, which contracted 1.4 percent year-on-year, narrowing from 2015's dip of minus 5.2 percent."

Don't forget, it could all be fake news though.

**birding** · 11-01-2017, 01:16 PM

I see the December and 2016 US employment stats are out :

Total non farm payroll employment rose by 156,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance.

More at : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Comment :

I read somewhere that Ms Yellen stated that it only needs 100,000 new jobs a month to keep up with those entering the workforce and replace those who have left the workforce in any one month.

Yellen?s new normal of less than 100,000 new jobs a month - NetRight Daily

If this is true then the true increase in employment is only 56,000 for the 100.000 is needed to maintain the status quo.

The vast majority of these 'new' jobs are in health, social services and food and drink with only 17,000 in actual manufacturing.

Unemployment which only includes those who have actively searched for work in the last month is said to be about the same but whet is telling is the youth, under 20 ( what they call teenage) unemployment stands at 14.7% which means that almost 15% of young people looking for work cant find it, not a good sign for the future as many of those young people will have student debt.

Is this really a sign of a good growth economy ?

**OhOh** · 13-01-2017, 11:21 AM

It does help creating free interns and low wages, when they find a job.

**OhOh** · 31-03-2017, 09:20 AM

An indicator of one exceptional country's current status maybe:

**Cold Pizza** · 31-03-2017, 11:49 PM

07-06-2006, 09:13 PM #17 (permalink)
barbaro
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Presidents do not have much control over the U.S. macroeconomy

H. Bush and Clinton did not follow the coat-tails of Reagan nore any other President before them.

The economy in the 1990s adapted and changed significantly from that of the 1980s.

Congress, also only has an affect on certain industries of the U.S. Macro-economy.

Consumer spending is 2/3 of the economy in the U.S.

So toss the politics and focus on interest rates, CPI (which measures inflation) and the per capita debt ratios, and PPI (production price index).

Inverted J-curve? Probably doesn't forecast much, but it shows how things could look someday.
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Old 08-06-2006, 10:10 AM #18 (permalink)
Storekeeper
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Storekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand Expat
I just love your cut and paste post style. I'm sure you fool alot of people.

**DrB0b** · 01-04-2017, 01:56 AM

When you said

Originally Posted by Cold Pizza

Storekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand Expat

did you really mean

Originally Posted by Cold Pizza

Storekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand ExpatStorekeeper Thailand Expat

? It's not clear from your post.

**birding** · 08-04-2017, 01:35 AM

The crash is getting closer.

The troubles at the American mall are coming to a boil

**Cold Pizza** · 08-04-2017, 03:18 AM

Originally Posted by birding

The crash is getting closer.

The troubles at the American mall are coming to a boil

American malls have been weakening for years and are an endangered species.

As the article notes, consumers have moved to online purchasing more and more and to niche markets.

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