US dollar decline, or collapse?

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Originally Posted by britmaveric

Unfortunately most of the world is in the sh*te just as bad or worse than the yanks. ;)

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In the shit yes. As bad as the Yanks No. That is, except for the Poms.
Somewhere down the line there has got to be a readjustment in the trading wealth of various countries based on production of tradable goods and services rather than the trade in paper money that the current world economy is based on. The emerging trading nations will eventually take a bigger share of the worlds trading wealth. There is no way simply printing more paper money to cover spiraling debt can sustain a viable world economy. For a short time maybe -- Yes. Long term, well you tell me the answer? The value of the $US on the world market is way out of sync with the tradable value of goods and services by USA.

The US standard of living is reliant on debt to other countries rather than production as it was at the beginning. Quite an anomaly that would not exist except that the $US is the worlds default trading currency, and as the largest economy in the world offers some degree of stability for investors in troubled financial times. But an anomaly that can not go on forever. The experiment of the $US as the worlds default exchange medium of the past 38 years was good for a while, but now has got the whole world into a whole lot of trouble. Time to move on to something better and more sustainable. Obviously, the eventual transition will favour one that values actual production of tradable goods and services above mere production of more paper money. But who knows how long that will take, or what kind of a world financial collapse that will take to force a change ?

Basically, the current world financial system based on the $US is unsustainable, but how to get out of it without causing financial chaos on the world market is something of a quandary for everyone concerned. The only certain thing is that everyone (including USA ) realizes its time for change. Only problem is that no one is really sure how to do it without suffering some big financial losses.

The only thing for sure is that the longer the world puts off a transition to a more viable trading system, --- the bigger the loss (adjustment) in countries wealth who have put their faith in $USs. Its not something anyone wants to do, but its something everyone knows they will have to do eventually. Perhaps something magical will happen and the financial system of the world will once again defy logic as it has for the past 38 years?

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Originally Posted by Panda

In the shit yes. As bad as the Yanks No. That is, except for the Poms.

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Yanks are in trouble as the size of the debt is so high but as a percent of GDP they rank 15th. Ireland is no 1. All the rest with the exception of Hong Kong are European countries.

The World's Biggest Debtor Nations - Slideshows - CNBC.com

Japan, China, Korea and Singapore are the big creditors.

Something is wrong with those figures Norton, the foreign debt's owed to Denmark is not calculated into the cnbc stats and as such do not represent the true situation, the regulated debt in 2008 was 11% of bnp in Denmark.

I am almost sure the same would be the case for Norway who is the northern Kuwait and have enormous oil revenue I would be surprised if the regulated debt would not show Norway coming out on top.

And since we in Denmark have no state-debt- ie. that the State/citizens do not owe itself any money I would say the situation is vastly different from the situation in the US.

With out knowing to much about economy I still find it funny why cnbc or whoever is behind it would present national debt this way? since it is misleading as to the real situation.

^not really misleading - most Europe is in debt up to their arse - least the leading countries in the Euro are and UK. (japan and most of asia w/exception of China) Australia/NZ are ok.

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Originally Posted by larvidchr

Something is wrong with those figures Norton

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They just show the gross external debt , and do not consider external assets.
They are indeed quite misleading, expecially for small nations like Denmark and Ireland.

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Originally Posted by wefearourdespot

They just show the gross external debt , and do not consider external assets.

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Believe this is correct. No intent to mislead. Frankly just did a search for national debt and this was one of many.

Having looked at a few others it seems accurate numbers are difficult to ascertain. One of the problem areas is how countries compute GDP. In many GDP appears to be overstated.

If someone else can find accurate link/s which account for assets vs debt would appreciate a posted link.

I know You did not intend to mislead Norton:), I looked at Denmarks economy Debt on wikipedia and the numbers, foreign assets versus foreign debt end 2008, from the Danish Government statistical office came up, as did the internal Goverment debt/assets for 2008 that showed the government having more money coming in from tax revenue and other, than the Government spend in 2008, around 60 milliard Dkr (not exactly the same situ. as the US). That is however not expected to be the case for 2009 where aid packets and tax cuts will give red numbers in about the same size, but that is after all small fry, and not to serious.

I still believe (without being sure) that the numbers stated on the website you have does not give a correct picture of the Countrys economic situation, in fact I could have a sneaking suspicion that those numbers are set up like this to make Americans feel a little better, while wool is being pulled over their eyes.

As stated the correct Danish debt 2008, taking in to account all Government assets (Debt owed to Denmark), and all foreign debt Denmark owe, at the end of 2008 was 11% of bnp which is a far cry from the number shown on the cnbc site, you can not calculate your correct economic situation without including what you have coming to you.

I might be all wrong ^, I am absolutely no wizard at this, but I do think I read the numbers correct from the Danish statistical office.

Where is our other resident TD experts in economics when we need them Milk, Sabang, Spin, Panda, Butterfly so we could get some second opinions to this one from you Norton ?? How do Country's debt get calculated correctly? What is the US situation, assets versus debt? how big is the US national Government debt? as in how much does the US spend versus tax revenue :)

Oh yes, and the Danish Government issued broad Tax cuts as part of the cure against the present crisis, a slightly different approach than the US model where Tax will rise, + the fact that Denmark do not have bonds issued in Dkr that in effect would render the country bankrupt if the bondholders wanted to cash in the bonds also puts the Country in a little bit safer position .

I don't think the US situation is at all comparable to many of the European economies, even Germany whose situation is pretty bad, but they are alone the worlds biggest exporter, bigger than China bigger than US, they have a much better chance to turn this situation around by producing/exporting their way out of this crisis, as soon as the consumers start buying the high quality German products again, than the US have.

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Originally Posted by larvidchr

the fact that Denmark do not have bonds issued in Dkr

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Not alltogether true. The bigger part of our state debts is actually in DKr and in Bonds (statsobligationer)Danmarks statsgæld buldrer i vejret - Samfund & økonomi

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Originally Posted by helge

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Originally Posted by larvidchr

the fact that Denmark do not have bonds issued in Dkr

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Not alltogether true. The bigger part of our state debts is actually in DKr and in Bonds (statsobligationer)Danmarks statsgæld buldrer i vejret - Samfund & økonomi

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Thanks for the very good link Helge :)

But you have to quote the whole sentence, I'm perfectly aware of our (Statsobligationer) they are the big part of the debts but is very far away from making us bankrupt if the bondholders wanted their money back.

I wrote-

"the fact that Denmark do not have bonds issued in Dkr that in effect would render the country bankrupt if the bondholders wanted to cash in the bonds"

But apart from that the link just more or less confirms the 2008 figures and the projection for 2009.

Gross debt-446,2 milliard Dkr Bonds.+ 154,5 milliard foreign debt : 600,8 milliard Dkr.
That figure then corrected with the Governments own holdings in the National Bank and their own owned Bonds in pension funds aso. leaves a net debt of 256,8 Milliard Dkr. up from 194,7 at the end of 2008.

So with the 2009 aid packets the net debts is 16% BNP up from the 11% of BNP in 2008 which still is international seen very low, Great Britain is expecting more than 100%.

Puhaa this still is complicated stuff for my slow brain though :confused:

^ You are right. Missed that.

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Originally Posted by Norton

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Originally Posted by wefearourdespot

They just show the gross external debt , and do not consider external assets.

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Believe this is correct. No intent to mislead. Frankly just did a search for national debt and this was one of many.

Having looked at a few others it seems accurate numbers are difficult to ascertain. One of the problem areas is how countries compute GDP. In many GDP appears to be overstated.

If someone else can find accurate link/s which account for assets vs debt would appreciate a posted link.

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You have to browse Central Banks websites, usually inside the "Financial Stability Report" they show a table with external net position.

Why the fuck it's not possible to upload files in this site ? Anyway just for example go to Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey , click on the third highligth Balance of Payments Statistics and International Investment Position and follow instructions

..this is the link, pag 26 of PDF file http://www.nationalbanken.dk/DNUK/Pu...istics_ENG.pdf
assets and liabilities are practically even. Assuming assets are fairly valued, Denmark is debt free.

...this is the link File:NettoauslandsvermögenUSen.PNG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia the bastards were already 2.5 trillions in the red in 2007 , cannot dare to imagine how much in the red they are now :tieme:

^
Thank you for your take on this and the links Wfod :)

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Originally Posted by wefearourdespot

Assuming assets are fairly valued, Denmark is debt free.

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Here in lies the big question all countries are facing in the current economic decline and unstable environment. Value of assets is nearly impossible. For countries who hold large assets in USD, should the USD decrease significantly so will their assets.

Kitco is displaying a new gold index, explained here: Kitco - Gold Index

Some of you may find it interesting.

Here's a quick video. Info here is alreaday posted, but Keiser comments on the US war industry, its influence on the White House.

He's calling the USD Petro-dollar to shift within by about 2018.

YouTube - Max Keiser: Dollar to be buried way before 2018

Maybe next century, but wont be using petrol by then. :)

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Originally Posted by robuzo

Kitco is displaying a new gold index, explained here: Kitco - Gold Index

Some of you may find it interesting.

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Good site. Puts the gold price in a more realistic perspective.
Thanks.

Russia may be moving away from using the dollar now.

The recent story about the gulf and Arab states may have been a rumour. It may be true.

But Russia may be moving away now.

Iran, Russia, and also Latin American countries are trying to use a new form of currency called the "sucre."

This source is new, so I'll check it more often, to see if they are legit. Any comments welcome.

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Talking of Dumping Dollar for International Trade After the Independent reported that Middle Eastern oil producers, plus China, Japan and France have all agreed to start trading oil using a basket of currencies – instead of the dollar – starting in 9 years, spokesmen for those governments denied it.

The Independent’s reporter explained why the governments were denying the rumor.

But now the governments themselves are starting to admit that they are switching out of the dollar.

For example, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia is ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings. As Russia’s newspaper RIA Novosti writes:

Russia is ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.

The premier, currently on a visit to Beijing, said a final decision on the issue can only be made after a thorough expert analysis.

“Yesterday, energy companies, in particular Gazprom, raised the question of using the national currency. We are ready to examine the possibility of selling energy resources for rubles, but our Chinese partners need rubles for that. We are also ready to sell for yuans,” Putin said.

And Iran’s Press TV reports that Iran wants to completely drop the dollar from its foreign exchange:

Since October 2007, Iran has received 85 percent of its oil revenues in currencies other than the US dollar and Tehran is determined to find a substitute for the US dollar for the rest of its 15 percent of oil revenues, the report added.

This story is confirmed by the Tehran Times, which notes:

As I have repeatedly noted, many countries have been moving out of the dollar for years. The process is simply accelerating.

In line with this plan, Iran has informed Japan that it should use the yen instead of dollars to pay for the oil it buys from the Islamic Republic.

In addition, Iran has decided to open a bourse for oil and gas transactions in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, especially the euro.

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Russia and Iran Now OFFICIALLY Talking of Dumping Dollar for International Trade - BlackListed News

OPEC is starting to publicly consider moving away from the USD.

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Originally Posted by mad_dog

OPEC is starting to publicly consider moving away from the USD.

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First, glad to see u back on the board, Mad_Dog.

Been missing you. How are things?

As for OPEC, yes there was this report. Some call it rumor. Latin America is also talking about using their own, future local trading currency, and Russia and China are discussing ways to use Yuan or Rubles for gas trading.

Gold is up...oil inching up as some think (erroneously IMO) that there is a "recovery" soon with an economic report due out in a couple of days.

Hey Guys, I'm not a person with interest in money matters, that's why I have an financial advisor but I would like to put in my 2 cents worth into this conversation just to give you the perspective from an average American working man. I keep up with the exchange rate between the USD and the THB just because I have a TW and family. My wife sends some $ back to her mother and I have a new Toyota there that we're making payments on. Anyway, the USD keeps going down, Dollars keep going out of the country, the government keeps financing enormous sums for conflicts all over the globe and what's left keeps getting given away to either welfare reciepients or welfare nations (and many not welfare nations) all over the globe.
I feel that the only thing that keeps any strength in the USD is the world knowing that I and 200 million other working Americans will get up tomorrow morning and go to work thereby earning (unlike the administration that just prints) more dollars that can be taken every two weeks to some store to purchase Mexican or South American fruits and vegatables, middle east oil or cheap Chinese products.
If the dollar declines enough I won't be able to afford foreign fruits, vegatables, oil or cheezy Chinese toys for my kids. Stores will be forced to sell only american products as that is all I will be able to afford to buy and my government will have to stop giving away so much money to the other nations of the world. then the dollar will probably stabilize where it wil remain and I will be living in a thatched hut somewhere in the eastern US that will most likely resemble Sakhon Nowhere.

Oh yeah, and I will be hungry because I work for the government and they won't be able to afford to pay me a retirement and my financial advisor is probably Nicholas Cage's old business manager. (couldn't help myself from attempting to put a joke at the end)