Why Obama will Win

**sabang** · 29-07-2008, 11:16 AM

Thanks Norton.

I quite like this chart showing a timeline of Polling data, so I'll duly copy it here-

[Edit- no I won't, it comes out indecipherable]

In the Link above there is a Table, showin a timeline of Polling data. The closer you get to the top (i.e most recent) in the Polls the more Polls Obama leads in. It is very apparent, unless you are colourblind.

**Norton** · 29-07-2008, 11:26 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

I quite like this chart showing a timeline of Polling data, so I'll duly copy it here

I've tried this before. Some how the forest is obscured by the trees when it is copied into TD.

**sabang** · 29-07-2008, 11:29 AM

^^ Nope brit, it shows that unless something changes between now and Polling day, Obama is the likely winner.

**britmaveric** · 29-07-2008, 11:30 AM

Unlikely this year - perhaps Osama should try again in 2012?

**Mr Earl** · 29-07-2008, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

^^ Nope brit, it shows that unless something changes between now and Polling day, Obama is the likely winner.

Kerry was the favorite too until the evil

stole the election from him.
If you don't believe it just ask Al Gore! He'll set you straight!

Barrack Hussein Obama is toast he just don't know it yet.

**Mr Earl** · 29-07-2008, 11:52 AM

"Barrack Hussein Obama" just don't got da same ring as "William Jefferson Clinton"

Note how on the official Obama website never mentions his middle name.

And I'm afraid poor ol Barrack aint got da help of a Ross Perot like slick Willie did against George Herbert Walker Bush.

**sabang** · 29-07-2008, 11:55 AM

You'll all be eating your words soon enough.

**AntRobertson** · 29-07-2008, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by sabang

You'll all be eating your words soon enough.

Can't quite share your optimism.

I think that in the final analysis the US simply isn't ready for a black president with a Muslimish name.

**Texpat** · 29-07-2008, 01:22 PM

Sidney might be worse than Hussein.

McCain wasn't born in the US anyway, what right does he have thinking he might be president?

**Bugs** · 29-07-2008, 07:02 PM

Well the polls have been pretty much all over the place in regard to how big of a lead Obama has, and a few polls here and there that have a tie of a McCain lead. I don't put too much weight in any of the polls at this stage as there is still plenty of time for something big to happen in world events, or for one of the two to royally screw the pooch and hand over the crown to the other.

They each still have to pick a vp which could help to move things closer or push one out in front.

Dukakis lead Bush by like 17 points at this stage back in the day and Bush still ended up winning. - Too much time between now and the election.

**attaboy** · 30-07-2008, 12:54 AM

Originally Posted by Texpat

the media ... flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.

I'm also quite dubious of the media. They survive on conflict.
If the race was a run-away, they'd have little to report; they'd lose ratings and might have to resort to working for a living.

The same holds true with all these TV reality shows. Each one has an element of conflict. Even if it's something as innocuous as Martha Stewart putting together a floral arrangement, they introduce a time element, so it's a race against the clock. It's a manufactured clash of forces.

The predictable, tired old contest -- good versus evil. If it's a blowout, nobody's interested in watching (or voting).

I also suspect Obama's lead is far greater than the media report it to be.

The media wants the millions in advertizing revenues. They turn on Obama when they want him to cut loose with some new ads.

Mo money Mo money

**attaboy** · 30-07-2008, 12:57 AM

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

"Barrack Hussein Obama" just don't got da same ring as "William Jefferson Clinton"

Note how on the official Obama website never mentions his middle name.

And I'm afraid poor ol Barrack aint got da help of a Ross Perot like slick Willie did against George Herbert Walker Bush.

Sung to the tune of Gonna Fly Now from "Rocky"

Barak's middle name is Hussein,

It's Hussein.

Barak's middle name is Hussein,

It's Hussein.

(chorus)

It's Hussein!

It's Hussein!

It's Hussein!

It's Hussein!

**Texpat** · 30-07-2008, 01:01 AM

^^ Exactly, the media want both campaigns to spend every cent they have -- an illusion that it's close, no matter the reality. And as a bonus, the electorate will stay tuned because really, who wants to vote for a loser? Furthermore, they've sucked in people like AR and SB who can't even vote but will stay tuned because it's good entertainment (I mean news) (I mean entertainment)...

Everyone's a pundit, everyone's an expert. Take it down to the wire -- the seventh game.

Suck everyone in like it's a battle of wills.

The US should hold the national election the day after all competing candidates surrender.

Everything else is * SHOWTIME *

**sabang** · 01-08-2008, 06:33 AM

This is quite interesting- the two latest Polls are looking much better for McCain.

Strange things these Polls- is the voting public really that fickle, or when it comes down to it are Polls more inaccurate than they like to say?

Anyway, Gallup (pretty serious polling org) has Obama and McCain at a statistical dead heat-
"Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll -- the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday -- shows the race at almost a dead heat. Obama had a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%.
A week ago, in the midst of his much-heralded overseas trip, Obama began a spurt in the tracking polls -- on Sunday, he reached his peak with a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%. But since then, his edge has steadily declined."
Gallup poll update: Barack Obama and John McCain essentially dead even | Top of the Ticket | Los Angeles Times

And this University Poll has McCain gaining in three 'battleground' states.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 7 percentage points in Pennsylvania, down from 12 points in June. His lead in Ohio and Florida is down to 2 points, which is within the margin of error. Last month, he led in Ohio by 6 points and Florida by 4 points.
McCain gains ground in three battleground states | csmonitor.com

No doubt their will be innumerable Polls to follow, but this certainly deflates the momentum that the Obama campaign seemed to be gaining.

**britmaveric** · 01-08-2008, 10:33 AM

Polls are meaningless whoever you support, its all worthless so I would bin it.

**Bugs** · 01-08-2008, 02:42 PM

Originally Posted by sabang

No doubt their will be innumerable Polls to follow, but this certainly deflates the momentum that the Obama campaign seemed to be gaining.

I'll probably vote for McCain so generally this is good news to me. However, if I hope his campaign does not view these gains as in any way related to what seems to have been an increase in negative campaigning, and thus increase the use of such tactics.

**Jet Gorgon** · 03-08-2008, 11:54 PM

This Jay Leno clip is a pretty good summation of America's view of BO. Click on the phone-in 7/30. The GW chat is also amusing.
NBC.com < The Tonight Show with Jay Leno

**sabang** · 04-08-2008, 08:09 AM

Watching from a distance, it has been quite amusing how the negative Obama stereotypes have evolved and changed since it first became clear that his was a serious campaign. I'm sure it caught most of us by surprise- certainly myself.

It began as-

"Obama is a closet Moslem, educated in a Madrassa." A Mole, with a secret agenda to bring down the USA from within. I suppose the clumsiness and sheer ridiculousness of these allegations soon left them discredited- although, amaxingly, apparently 15% of the US population still think BO is muslim.

Then-

In reality Obama is a practising Christian- ooh look, the Pastor of his congregation is (was, he's now retired) a bit of a firebrand, loudmouthed radical. He's also responsible for many good works, and the strong growth of a very succesful Congregation, but thats besides the point. Lo and behold- BO is now a latter day Black Panther!

And if he ever attended a cocktail party or fund raiser where Farrakhan, or that white radical who bombed some place but is now a University professor, was present- see, thats Proof!

Then-

Unfortunately Obama, a rather dapper, articulate and accomplished individual does not really fit the stereotype of a Black Panther- it is an absurd analogy. But hey- what about Michelle! She's brasher, more Black, more prone to 'Hey Bro' type gestures like air punches, or high fives. Even her dress sense is attacked to fit the stereotype- Obama is now the Weak man under the influence of his evil Wife, and the insidiousness of pillow talk from First Ladies is brought to the fore. By comparison, Cindy is presented as the all American cookies and cream Gal, content to stay in the Kitchen while the Men get on with business.

Then-

Obama attends a fund raiser at the Getty mansion in SF, surrounded by monied people of privilege. It is also noted that he eats healthy, and works out. Presto- He's an intellectual, effete, privileged Liberal- out of touch with the common people. In short, an Elitist and a Snob!

Quite a journey- from Moslem radical Mole to effete latte' sipping Liberal, all within about three months!

**Mr Earl** · 04-08-2008, 08:26 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

Quite a journey- from Moslem radical Mole to effete latte' sipping Liberal, all within about three months!

I think you missed the part where he became the "Messiah" and the "Savior" of the free world, leader of the minions of Europe and universally adored.
Even aliens from other planets are taking note and pledging adulation.

**sabang** · 04-08-2008, 08:53 AM

^ Shite, yes good point Earl. I did miss out the 'new Messiah' phase- the Sunshine boy Celebrity, object of adulation from the starstruck Masses- but in reality an empty suit, the Paris Hilton of the political fashion set.

That stereotype, along with the effete Latte' Liberal are currently in Vogue. I wonder what it might be next- surely we are running short of stereotypes now? But hey, never underestimate the Rove acolytes that are now running McCains campaign- I wonder if BO ever did Drugs?

**sabang** · 04-08-2008, 09:03 AM

Incidentally, seeing as Obama has been compared to paris, look at this-

Same silly smile

. Is there something we are not being told?

**Jet Gorgon** · 04-08-2008, 09:10 AM

^ He said he inhaled. And snorted.

**anae03** · 07-08-2008, 09:16 PM

I mean, I don't know who is going to win, but I don't remember a campaign with people getting so involved like this one.

**chinthee** · 07-08-2008, 09:24 PM

^That's a good point. So many people want a change from what we have now, and I think it's the most critical point in American political history for this.

I'm just surprised Obama isn't leading by more points, and if recent history repeats itself, McCain will be the next President as the Democrats self-destruct yet again.

**britmaveric** · 07-08-2008, 09:29 PM

^ Have to admit love to see the democrats melt down again - its good for a laff and this one will make them jump off a building.

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