Does this mean that an adjustment in world wealth is happening between countries that actually have an export surplus and countries that import more than they earn? How could it be!! ?:rolleyes:
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Does this mean that an adjustment in world wealth is happening between countries that actually have an export surplus and countries that import more than they earn? How could it be!! ?:rolleyes:
During the last hour of trading on Friday, Moodys investor service announced it was reviewing Citi's ratings and may downgrade. That propelled the stock to its lowest ever level, 3.50$ thats a 48% drop THIS WEEK. link
Now the next few days are critical for citi, S&P 500 closed just below key level at 850. If the expected Obama rally doesnt materialise when the market opens after the long weekend you can expect to see a huge sell off in the financials with citi leading the charge. Conservatorship anyone?
^Well, as I have said for a very long time on this thread, Citi is the key. It is unbailable. (I think I just made that word up by the way).
Their liabilities, especially in the derivitives market are truely unbelievable. It is like an onion, peeling each layer away creates more tears. I read a critique of their off balance sheet house of cards about six months ago (which regrettably I now cannot find) and it is terrifying stuff.
We are now entering the end game.
^Do you always bury you head in the sand when presented with unpalatable news Brit?
I recall our discussions on TV when you were adamant the USD was en route to 50THB when it stood at 44. You were still argueing that you were right when it dipped below 40 when I was banned from there. On here you maintained your stance that everything is, in fact, rosy in the US and elsewhere.
Yet, during all of this, you posted no evidence, no articles or data apart from one emoticon: ;)
The fact that you have now opted for the horse-beater is some measure of progress I suppose...
Just have a hunch that all will be ok, I'm an eternal optimist. One saving grace the whole world is in the same boat - so it sort of evens things out.
Looks like the mainstream media is catching up with me on this thread. In this article:
Comment is free: Will Hutton: Unless we are decisive Britain faces bankruptcy | Comment is free | The Observer
Will Hutton of The Guardian considers the likelihood and ramifications of the UK going bankrupt.
My only question is why does it take these 'learned' people so long to catch up...:rolleyes:
UK is in worse shape than the USA re its import/export imbalance and debt.
Like USA, the only thing keeping it afloat this far has been reinvestment back into its financial institutions and the rest of the worlds faith in its currencies strength.
And like USA, pretty much a house of cards financially. All you need is for the "faith" component to disappear and all you are left with is a lot of debt that cant be paid back. UK doesn't have the advantage of controlling the worlds monetary system via a currency hegemony, so the sad news is that following USA into the financial abyss wasn't such a good idea after all. The standard of living for UK citizens is going to have to drop considerably before the countries books get back in order.
ONLY TWELVE MORE BANK BAIL-OUTS TO GO, PROMISES DARLING
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gifCorden will host The Concert For The 7th Bail-Out
CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling has promised to limit the number of bank bail-outs to 10 or 12 at the most.
Announcing the second bail-out, Mr Darling said it would create the perfect conditions for the third, fourth and seventh bail-outs.
"The fifth will look very like the second and the fourth but with at least one extra zero. The sixth is very similar to the third but with a Wimbledon fortnight theme and the seventh - well that's just an absolute beauty."
Mr Darling revealed the seventh bail-out would be announced by Girls Aloud from the top of the London Eye and there would also be an eve of bail-out concert featuring Franz Ferdinand, Duffy and Gavin and Stacey actor James Corden.
As the British government became less credit-worthy than the fucked-up banks it's lending to, Mr Darling added: "If I can move some dates around we should be able to headline with Antony and the Johnsons."
The chancellor meanwhile rejected claims the government can only afford another eight bail-outs, insisting a round dozen was 'very achievable'.
He said: "What I can confirm is that if we get to 13 bail-outs we will all be living on makeshift coconut rafts while the Chinese and the Arabs wave back at us from the white cliffs of Dover.”
Tom Booker, chief economist at Donnelly-McPartlin, said: "I think it's important the government commits itself to at least 10 more bail-outs, although I do have one question - where the fuck is all the money coming from?"
ONLY TWELVE MORE BANK BAIL-OUTS TO GO, PROMISES DARLING - The Daily Mash
I think so, the UK is not in the same flexible position as the US is, and yet doesn't have the "cushion" of socialism to stop the financial damage from spreadingQuote:
Originally Posted by Panda
The US will probably recover from that mess with a big hangover early 2010, so 2009 should be pretty miserable for the rest of the world in terms of growth. The good news is deflation, and cheap "assets" and cheap "currencies" might relaunch the engine.
For me the biggest disaster isn't the subprime, it's all "virtual" panic and it was caused by FASB forcing financial institutions to mark to market in 2006, doing the same mistake as it was in early 80s during the S&L mess, opening the way for a credit crunch. History repeating itself again.
No, the biggest disaster for WS is the Madoff scandal, this is going to have some nasty effects for savings and investment portfolios in a massive way.
.
(Now 48.6 to the Baht)
Jim Rogers tells it as it is:
Bloomberg.com: WorldwideQuote:
“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.”
Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999. In January 2008, he advised investors to sell the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures, which tracks the greenback against six major trading partners, rose 6 percent last year.
Oh dear...
.
And don't forget, Roubini is one of the few economists I have any time for. His 12-steps to financial disaster published in 2006 have occurred to the letter...:
Roubini: Not even halfway there
Nouriel Roubini is just a day late to make the most depressing day of the year just that little bit more painful, but his latest missive is sure to continue the pain into Tuesday.
By his calculations we are not even halfway through the fallout from the financial crisis. In fact, we seem at least a couple of trillion away from it:
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.
“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of 3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”
Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…
“The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said. “In Europe, it’s the same thing.”
Continued here:
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Inflation’s upside surprise
Sorry, I googled unbailable and there are 74 million results:)Quote:
Originally Posted by bkkandrew
I've got one for you though "creditism" wieghs in with just 1,630 results, beat that if you can!
Dow Jones Financials Index reached new lows today, breaching levels from November than many believed were "the bottom". They were led there by aforementioned basket cases messers Citygroup and Bank of America. Citigroup are now just days away from being taken out back and shot....err sorry I mean "conservationismship":mid:
https://teakdoor.com/Gallery/albums/u...10821/fns1.JPG
at the end of the day, those banks will be saved, there is nothing wrong with nationalization of strategic assets, the only worry here is the "nationalization" is only temporary for US banks, while it should be permanent. The UK is on the right path, but a bit too late. It will get worse for the UKP before it recovers. My guess would be that it will fall below the EURO, but we can only dream of that happening :)
it's pretty obvious that the private sector has no clue when it comes to take risk and run a bank. Banks, like utilities, should be considered a public service and therefore heavily regulated. Without credit, there is no business, there is no economy, there is no growth. The biggest financial disasters are always coming from banks fucking up, it's always the same pattern.
Japan falling off a cliff (coming soon to LoS):
'Japan’s exports plunged by a record in December, signaling companies will be forced to shut factory lines and fire more workers, driving the economy deeper into recession.
Exports plummeted 35 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The December drop eclipsed a record 26.7 percent decline set the previous month. Economists predicted a 30.3 percent contraction.
Shipments to the U.S., China and Europe fell by the most ever, as the global recession dried up demand for Japanese cars and electronics. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Honda Motor Co. are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits and sales dwindle. '
<snip>
'The world’s second-largest economy may have shrunk as much as 12 percent on an annualized basis last quarter, Barclays Capital predicts, which would be the sharpest contraction since 1974. Factory output dropped 8.5 percent in November, the most in more than a half century, and machinery orders, an indicator of future capital spending, fell by the most ever.
From:
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Economists used to read the runes and describe a 3.5% fall in production/GDP/exports etc. as 'catastrophic' or 'collapsing'. What hyperbole can be used when the decimal point shifts to make it 35% I wonder?
in a very superficial way though, like saying tomorrow is another day, hardly making a case or articulating his thoughts beyond copying/pasting silly blogs or very opinionated stories.Quote:
Originally Posted by raycarey
He started attacking me as soon as I started to ask for evidence or an explanation, which would have been fine for a nice discussion, instead he was hiding behind his MO "I am right, you are wrong" lines.
Using sensationalist headlines to make predictions is not a recipe for successful forecasting. The problem is more complex than the current headlines tells you. In some ways, the news have "downplayed" some important parts of the issues while "sensationalized" other less important issues, which gives the wrong representation of the financial disaster we are facing. Poor bkka was being led and misguided by the sensationalist side of the disaster. That was basically my problem with him, no substance, only superficial and sensationalist hearsay.
^So utterly wrong on so many levels.
You are not fit to comment on the great man's words.
And, yet again, the words come true, this being the case with the unsummountable debt:
US red ink rising even higher, to $1.8TQuote:
WASHINGTON – With the economy performing worse than hoped, revised White House figures point to deepening budget deficits, with the government borrowing almost 50 cents for every dollar it spends this year.
The deficit for the current budget year will rise by $89 billion to above $1.8 trillion — about four times the record set just last year. The unprecedented red ink flows from the deep recession, the Wall St. bailout, the cost of President Barack Obama's economic stimulus bill, as well as a structural imbalance between what the government spends and what it takes in.
Hyper inflation is the only result of this mad attempt to avert default by the bankrupt banks. Are you ready?
A timely tv appearance now for Meredith Whitney who has never been wrong on any of her banking predictions since 2007.
the video is on this page
:rofl: megalomania wishes ? you are not fit to do anything bkkandrew, except drinking with English teachers at the OnNut Beer gardenQuote:
Originally Posted by passengers
Another silly prediction ? and based on what principles, fraud ? you have no understanding of basic economic principles, and you got it wrong 62.5% of the time, which is even worse than a dart throwing monkey. Fool :)Quote:
Originally Posted by passengers
I selected this thread, created by the great sage, BKKandrew, which has predicted every step of the financial collapse since the beginning of 2008, to announce the next stage of the economic cataclysm: Stage 9.
1. Global Housing Market Bubble Bursts
2. Global Bank Lending Implodes
3. Global Economy Begins to Contract
4. Global Banks begin to Fail
5. Global Unemployment Soars
6. Global Banks are Nationalised
7. Global Interest Rates are Lowered Dramatically to 0%
8. Global Quantitative Easing will be carried out on a Massive Scale
9. Global (Inflationary)Default on Debt
10. Global Hyperinflation
11. Global Dash For Assets
12. Global Monetary Collapse
13. Global Political Meltdown
The global bond market is now set for mass default. It will start in the US in the coming 2-4 weeks. Last weeks Bond Vigilantes kicked this process off. It was reported in the MSM here today:
Bond vigilantes set for rebellion against the West's wasteful ways - Telegraph
Interesting link.Quote:
Originally Posted by passengers
So how much interest can the US afford to pay in order to sell their debt?
^They haven't got the funds to meet current expenditure (50%) shortfall actually, so there isn't exactly any room for higher interest payments. But we knew that, didn't we...
^An expanded view on the foregoing:
From: Bizarre Conditions for a Bull MarketQuote:
On the numbers, the US government is the worst credit risk in the world. You determine a man’s creditworthiness by looking at his balance sheet. Add up his assets and subtract his liabilities. Do that to the federal government and you get a very big number with a minus sign in front of it. Even if they were to sell off the Capitol building and all the federal lands west of the Mississippi, the feds would still have a hole in their finances larger than any other in the entire world.
While the balance sheet looks awful, the cash flow is worse. In the current year, the feds will take in about $1.9 trillion in taxes and spend $3.6 trillion. In other words, the feds aren’t just living beyond their means…they’re not even on the same planet. Who in his right mind would lend to a spendthrift whose outgo exceeded his income by nearly 100%?
The only way any loan can reasonably be repaid is from income. Income must exceed expenses or there will never be money for debt repayment. Lending to a corporation or an individual, the lender expects the borrower to earn his way out of debt. Otherwise, it’s a fool’s game. The debtor is soon kiting checks and going deeper in the hole. He borrows from one lender in order to pay off the first lender… In effect, he operates a pyramid scheme – depending on fresh suckers to keep giving him new money – until the whole thing comes crashing down.
The federal government doesn’t even pretend that it is going to earn its way out of debt. It presumes that there’s an endless supply of money it can borrow…and new suckers born twice a minute who are willing to lend. But this is exactly where all Ponzi schemes crack up. The fed’s pyramid will fall in the same spot; where it runs out of new money.
And the Chinese laugh at Geithner:
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Geithner assures China investorsQuote:
In a speech at Beijing University at the start of his two-day visit, Mr Geithner reassured his Chinese hosts that they need not worry about the estimated $770bn (£475bn) they have invested in US treasuries, a class of US government debt.
"Chinese financial assets are very safe," he said, drawing laugher from the audience.
Laugh they might, but the joke is also on them.
^ Licking arse this time instead of trying to crack the whip.
"
He made only the briefest reference to a topic of sharp disagreement - China's currency. America says it is undervalued, making Chinese exports cheaper and costing US jobs.
But he did not push the point too hard, perhaps because, as he said, global problems would not be solved without the US and China working together. "
The laughing at Geithners feeble reassurances could be a very important signal, if this means that the Chinese intelligentsia have finally lost all confidence in the USD, China will be sure to make moves to minimise the damage and look elsewhere for the future.
Geithner looked very subdued and less than confident at that speech, it is clear he is on an "^arse licking"/rescue mission and the Chinese knows it. the thing is that they can much better withstand hard times and turn away from the big dependency on exports only to the US if they really have to, they do not have to consider hardship amongst the people it is a dictatorship, even to extremes where millions died of starvation it would have no impact on the Chinese leadership, the US/Europe do not have that "luxury" they have to consider the impact amongst their citizens, take care of the sick, the homeless, insurance, pension plans, unemployment numbers and with that ailing big company's aso. In a pinch the Chinese can disregard all this.
It is not an even playing field in this crisis, and for once it seems that it is the up and coming economies like India and China that are at an advantage, they can use their total negligence towards unemployment numbers, peoples living and working conditions, safety, and pollution, just like their so called "economic miracles" is based on same negligence.
Funnily enough it is ourselves that let them get away with it in our constant chase for the cheapest deals, buying their t-shirts etcetera from their shit hole sweatshop polluting factories. :(