The 2024 US Presidential Election Discussion thread

[harrybarracuda]

I don't think most Americans actually understand what the bald orange c u n t is planning (well, what's being planned for him).

There’s a new political game in town and it’s called Gonzo Governance. There is nothing “conservative” or “traditional” or “constitutional” about this. We had best recognize it and call it for what it is—a fundamental change and destruction of entrenched American values and social institutions. Until we call it what it is, we won’t grasp the destructive power on our democratic institutions. Hunter Thompson’s quip in 1988, “Yesterday’s weirdness is tomorrow’s reason why,” is an appropriate description of the GOP’s Project 2025 and shorter 2024 Republican Party Platform. We should know this as Project Gonzo 2025. This program is based on the erroneous assumption fueled by the digital media and the politics of fear that our major social institutions are corrupt and have failed to live up to their promises, and that only Donald Trump can fix things. Gonzo is justified by a perceived crisis and a breakdown in institutional and conventional means of dealing with a problem or issue, whether in journalism, criminal justice sentencing, or social organization.

Project Gonzo 2025 - CounterPunch.org

[harrybarracuda]

Well there's proof that abortion is hurting his campaign.

This isn't going to help much.

After months of Donald Trump attempting to repaint himself as a moderate on abortion issues — despite the former president bragging that he killedRoe v. Wade — he has finally bent the knee to anti-abortion leaders. On Friday, Trump declared that he would vote against a ballot measure in Florida that would expand access to abortion.
The news arrived just a day after he told NBC News that the state’s current six-week ban is “too short” and that “there has to be more time.” He added at the time that he was “going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.”
However, his remarks on Thursday garnered severe backlash from his coveted voters and Christian conservatives who are key to his grip over the GOP. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser released a response and said that voting for the Florida measure “completely undermines” Trump’s previous opposition to abortions after five months of pregnancy.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...an-1235093131/

[harrybarracuda]

Bloody hell, not long now.

The candidates will debate in one week in what will be their first meeting ever. The nation’s premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

[harrybarracuda]

By my reckoning that's 8am Thailand, Wednesday morning.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The second general election debate of the 2024 campaign season is here, but it’s the first matchup for the current nominees.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are taking part in Tuesday night’s debate in Philadelphia. After a disastrous performance in the first general election debate of this cycle in June, President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid, upending the campaign in its closing months and kicking off the rapid-fire process that allowed Harris to rise as Democrats’ nominee in his place.

Here’s how to watch the debate:

What time is the debate?

The debate will start at 9 p.m. EDT Tuesday and is expected to last 90 minutes. It’s being moderated by “World News Tonight” anchor David Muir and “Prime” anchor Linsey Davis.

What channel is the debate on?

ABC News is carrying the debate live on its broadcast network as well as its streaming platform ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu. Several networks have also agreed to carry the event live.

[Norton]

By my reckoning that's 8am Thailand, Wednesday morning.

Your reckoning is correct.

[harrybarracuda]

Well there's a big fucking surprise.

Donald Trump won’t be sentenced for falsifying business records until after the 2024 presidential election. Judge Juan Merchan postponed Trump’s sentencing in the hush money case on Friday (September 6).
“The imposition of sentence will be adjourned to avoid any appearance—however unwarranted—that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching presidential election in which the defendant is a candidate,” the judge ruled. “The court is a fair, impartial and apolitical institution. Adjourning decision on the motion and sentencing … should dispel any suggestion that the court will have issued any decision or imposed sentence either to give an advantage to or to create a disadvantage for any political party and/or any candidate for any office.”
He added, “This is not a decision this court makes lightly, but it is the decision which in this court’s view best advances the interests of justice.”
Trump’s sentencing was pushed back to November 26, three weeks after the election. It was previously scheduled for September 18.

Donald Trump Catches Big Break In Hush Money Sentencing

[misskit]

So best case scenario is Trump loses and then gets locked up shortly after.

[Switch]

So best case scenario is Trump loses and then gets locked up shortly after.

I agree that Trump will lose the election, but he will probably end up with a fine, or an ankle bracelet. Imprisonment seems unlikely. He won’t like either, but that’s tough shit for him, the serial fraudster, liar and misogynist.

[harrybarracuda]

I agree that Trump will lose the election, but he will probably end up with a fine, or an ankle bracelet. Imprisonment seems unlikely. He won’t like either, but that’s tough shit for him, the serial fraudster, liar and misogynist.

If they hadn't taken so long bringing the case, he could have been sentenced by now. It's a farce, in fact all of the trials show how the legal system favours the wealthy.

[Switch]

If they hadn't taken so long bringing the case, he could have been sentenced by now. It's a farce, in fact all of the trials show how the legal system favours the wealthy.

The only benefit to delay will come if he loses the election. No more delays, and his civil criminal cases will carry no immunity from prosecution.
When he loses the election, he also loses any presidential rights to pardon himself and his wealthy supporters.

[david44]

So best case scenario is Trump loses and then gets locked up shortly after.

Agreed worst he wins pardons all and USA and whole world pays the price esp Ukraine .

If it were Venezula, Chad or Somalia the rest of the world could probably ignore but as the leading economy and military power it would be better to have someone respected and without a criminal record.

I fear another 4 years of Trump is not impossible will be bad for all Americans esp women, minorities and often the same people who are the poor, low paid, and of course the environment, the National Parks flora and fauna which seem to be a low priority for the rich convict.

To all the good Americans out there get your postal or embassy voting sorted to try prevent this disaster, Harris is not a foregone conclusion.

I hope RFK remaining on the ballot will detract some voters from Trump column in states where he is on the ballot.

The debate should be interesting

[Norton]

I agree that Trump will lose the election, but he will probably end up with a fine, or an ankle bracelet. Imprisonment seems unlikely. He won’t like either, but that’s tough shit for him, the serial fraudster, liar and misogynist.

He could win again. Back in Nov 2016 I predicted there was no way anyone would be stupid enough to vote for a snake oil salesman. How wrong I was!

Looks to be a repeat this year if Trump gets the electorial votes he did in 2016. Clinton won 2.9 mil more votes but lost the election. A very odd form of democracy in action.

[Switch]

He could win again. Back in Nov 2016 I predicted there was no way anyone would be stupid enough to vote for a snake oil salesman. How wrong I was!

Looks to be a repeat this year if Trump gets the electorial votes he did in 2016. Clinton won 2.9 mil more votes but lost the election. A very odd form of democracy in action.

I realise there is a lot of stupid, dumb votes out there for Trump. Harris will get the electoral college votes she needs to win the election, and probably the popular vote too.

Im sure the team will prepare Harris for anything Trump dreams up for the head to head debate, and she has form for public speaking. This debate will get her over the line.

Harris will have the question of Trump’s probity, in the minds of his dumb acolytes, casting counts over his suitability for high office. Many Trumpanzees won’t bother voting!

For the sake of the USA and the rest of the world, I hope that’s what happens.

[happynz]

Apologies for the long cut and paste, but I thought this was interesting.

Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman

Polling ‘Nostradamus’, said to have correctly forecast since 1984 all races except Gore’s loss, says Trump on track to lose

Allan Lichtman, the historian dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the White House in November’s poll.

Having previously warned the Democrats of the dangers of removing Joe Biden from the ticket, Lichtman nevertheless forecast that the vice-president, who became the party’s nominee after the president withdrew in July, would be elected in a video for the New York Times.

He said Harris was on course to beat Donald Trump even though the Democrats had effectively surrendered the valuable key of presidential incumbency, one of 13 he used to determine the likely outcome.

《snip》

Lichtman’s predictions are based on a set of true/false propositions, and take no account of polling trends.

《snip》

[Lichtman] found eight favoured Harris – who he said gained from the absence of a strong third party candidate following the demise of Robert F Kennedy Jr’s independent campaign, positive short- and long-term economic indicators, major legislative achievements enacted by the Biden administration, and absence of social unrest or scandal attached to the White House. She was also favoured in not having had to undergo a party nomination battle to succeed Biden, as other mooted candidates quickly lined up to endorse her before last month’s Democratic national convention.

Even if two still unanswered keys on foreign policy successes or failures fell in Trump’s favour, they would not be enough for him to win the election, according to the formula.

Lichtman accurately forecast Trump’s unheralded 2016 election triumph over Hillary Clinton at a time when most opinion polls indicated a contrary outcome. He also correctly forecast that Trump would be impeached during his presidency – which he was, twice.

A history professor at American University, he has been forecasting the results of US presidential elections since 1984 and claims to have accurately predicted all but one – George W Bush’s contested triumph over Al Gore in 2000, which was decided after the US supreme court ruled in Bush’s favour following weeks of legal wrangling over disputed ballots.

Lichtman claims even that blemish is unjustified, arguing that thousands of disallowed ballots had been cast by voters who had tried in good faith to back Gore, the then vice-president and Democratic candidate, but had inadvertently spoilt their ballot papers.

Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

[harrybarracuda]

Of course anything other than a thumping Harris win will mean baldy orange cunto stoking his supporters into a rage.

Add to that the Georgia shenanigans with the State Election Board, and he might get exactly the fucking chaos on which he thrives.

Lawsuit Challenges New Rules for Election Certification in Georgia | State Court Report

[Switch]

Trump will complain and pass the blame to anyone else, how ever much he loses by. That is his default attitude to everything.
JD Vance is a characterless, mumbling fool. A ideal foil for Trump to heap blame on. Trump will accuse the dems of cheating, and blame Vance, (selected by Trump), for Trumps failure.

After Trump loses, he can go to court for sentencing, without having to worry about the election he just lost.

[harrybarracuda]

Blah blah fucking blah

[Switch]

^A completely deluded fantasist. Clean up in aisle 1. This mess will take time to clean up, but in the end, Trump will lose and emigrate.

[david44]

Trump will lose and emigrate.

You may be righ t but I somehow doubt it.

Of course as an experienced philanderer, tv celeb,golf "champ" or was it chump, liar and convict in Thighland the skies the limit. Mulling sending our lad to sell smack to Okkers as the proven apprenticship for a cabinet post.

[Switch]

You may be righ t but I somehow doubt it.

Of course as an experienced philanderer, tv celeb,golf "champ" or was it chump, liar and convict in Thighland the skies the limit. Mulling sending our lad to sell smack to Okkers as the proven apprenticship for a cabinet post.

Much as I would like to agree with you, he will have to emigrate to avoid paying all his bills and avoiding legal proceedings against him with no immunity, as he will no longer be President.

A South American country with no extradition to USA. New passport and no one chasing him for war crimes.

I did listen to the excellent Bob Woodward video posted by Norton. Woodward seems to tactfully ignore the serious mental decline in Trump’s public appearances. Thank fookI don’t use Twitter or Truth Social.

Trump should be in a secure mental health unit.

[Troy]

What are you drinking Switch?

You are making even less sense than Biden was in that first debate.

[harrybarracuda]

I did listen to the excellent Bob Woodward video posted by Norton. Woodward seems to tactfully ignore the serious mental decline in Trump’s public appearances.

And that's a year ago.

[harrybarracuda]

What are you drinking Switch?

You are making even less sense than Biden was in that first debate.

That seemed quite clear.

Assuming he fails to win, if he wants to avoid possible jail time or paying the yuuuuuuge bills, he'll have to scarper to a non-extradition country.

And he's demented.

Personally I'd like to see him flee to Yemen.

[baldrick]

Blah blah fucking blah

if you read that you can tell it was not written by trump which in itself makes it fcukin hilarious

[david44]

non-extradition country.

It's slim list, of ex commie slums and African plunbing and pretty sure unless he's into nuns the Vatican will be out plus it has no airport and would be subject to arrest at Italian airports.

The only one of the list I'd think acceptable is N Cyprus

Montenegro gave toxin chittalotta a passport and looksMay well appeal to Ivaknka who speaks the lingo! Of course divorce /upgrade may be better bet.

Also Azerbaijan and Brunei if you can bear the muezzins.

Partially recognized or disputed territories also often do not engage in extradition due to the lack of clear diplomatic relations. Examples of such areas include:

• Somaliland
• Transnistria
• Northern Cyprus
• Western Sahara

The status of these territories complicates the establishment and enforcement of international treaties, including those for extradition.