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  1. #1
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    Basket Case Britain

    Head of State unelected by the people

    Half of the bicameral legislature unelected by the people

    Prime Minister unelected by the people

    Foreign Secretary unelected by the people

    When the usually patriotic Daily Torygraph agrees it is dire. those with the get up and go have got up and gone. dentists here Drs Australia USA Canada.

    Basket case Britain is back – and a recession is inevitable

    Basket case Britain is back – and a recession is inevitable

    Bank of England must keep raising rates to bring soaring prices under control
    4 min. read
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    Last week was the first time for quite a while that I have heard people using the expression “basket case Britain”. It was the latest inflation numbers that prompted this reaction.
    Inflation remained at 8.7pc, but more importantly, the core rate – which excludes food and energy prices – rose to 7.1pc, the highest for 31 years. Most strikingly, this happened at the same time that core inflation in both the US and the eurozone was easing back. So why is the UK doing so relatively badly?
    The inflation experiences of the eurozone and US have been different. The key influence on the surge of inflation in the European Union was its dependence on imported Russian gas. By contrast, the US has been energy self-sufficient and its energy prices have risen by much less.
    But in the US, aggregate demand has been stronger and the labour market tighter than in the EU. The US has also experienced more of a fall-off in the workforce than has been true in the EU.
    The UK has had the worst of both worlds – European energy price rises and American labour market tightness.
    This may describe and account for our relatively poor inflation performance but it does not explain it.


    One obvious factor which possibly could explain it, and which all the usual suspects will seize upon, is Brexit. Indeed, that leading usual suspect, the former Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, has done exactly that.
    Is there a reasonable case here? Brexit has made trade with the continent a little more expensive and cumbersome, thereby raising import costs a bit.
    And there have been few trade deals with the rest of the world to bring offsetting cost and price reductions. Moreover, Brexit has reduced easy access to a large pool of highly skilled and motivated labour from eastern Europe.
    Mind you, it is unclear why this should have been so important when overall immigration has actually increased. Meanwhile, Brexit has been a contributory factor to the weakness of business investment.
    Some commentators have drawn attention to the fall in the pound after the Brexit vote. This will undoubtedly have tended to raise UK costs and prices, but that big fall was now some seven years ago and since then the pound has been pretty steady.
    True, it had a major wobble during the Truss/Kwarteng episode last September and October, but that was very brief and the currency quickly recovered. Indeed, over 2023, the pound has been strengthening. Brexit cannot be anything other than a marginal influence.
    Another easy answer is “the Bank of England”. Were it not for Threadneedle Street’s lethargic approach to raising interest rates, the argument runs, we wouldn’t be where we are today.
    I have been forthright in my criticisms of the Bank and I do believe that if it had acted more vigorously then the inflation rate would currently be lower and we would now be set on a clear downward path. But there is more to it than that.


    There are those people who believe that if the Bank had not increased the money supply earlier through its policy of quantitative easing, or had sharply contained it sooner, then this would have given us a painless way of avoiding the inflationary spike and/or of subsequently bringing inflation down.
    I don’t agree. The Bank was unnecessarily heedless of the message that was coming from the money supply but the fact is that in so far as the money supply influences the inflation rate, it does so by affecting aggregate demand.
    The Bank allowed demand to be too strong given what had happened to supply. It now has to contain demand to bring inflation down.
    The money supply is part of that story but there is no separate money supply channel that offers an easy and painless way out.
    Anyway, simply blaming the Bank misses some key points. All major central banks have acted similarly. Indeed, the Bank of England was the first to raise interest rates.
    Moreover, the most salient factor is what has happened to pay inflation. This is currently running at 7.2pc, compared with 4.3pc in the US and 5.2pc in the eurozone. This is seldom commented on, but the UK hasn’t helped itself by announcing a large increase in the National Living Wage – 9.7pc this April, following a rise of 6.5pc in April 2022.
    The most important factor, however, is the UK’s poor supply performance. Alone among the major countries, GDP here has still not yet returned to its pre-pandemic peak.
    Most striking is the fall-off in Britain’s workforce. Covid had a good deal to do with this, but Covid was the quintessential global shock and all countries have suffered from its aftermath.


    It could be that the failings of our NHS have proved more damaging than is true in other countries, with long waiting lists, high levels of long-term sick and sub-par capabilities of addressing mental illness, which has been particularly damaging in the aftermath of the lockdowns.
    The global surge in inflation had its origins in a series of supply shocks. Because higher prices reduced people’s living standards, there was always going to be the danger of a wage-price spiral which monetary policy would have to resist and eventually stop.
    The UK inflation experience has been particularly bad because our supply situation was more damaged than other countries’ and given this, our central bank failed to act vigorously enough to stop the wage-price spiral becoming embedded.
    As headline inflation eases down over coming months, it should be easier to persuade workers to accept lower rates of increase of their pay. But this alone is unlikely to be enough. The balance of supply and demand in the labour market has got to be made looser.
    That means higher unemployment – and probably some sort of recession. It will be painful, but the Bank will have to carry on increasing interest rates to bring this about.

    Roger Bootle is senior independent adviser to Capital Economics
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    comes across as an angry Frank Spencer.
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmond View Post
    I have a genius level IQ

  2. #2
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    don't worry David Lammy is on the horizon, Symp will love a bit of him.

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Don't worry, Britain's female trump will be along to save the day.

    I see what you mean sybille.

    Suella Braverman's letter to Rishi Sunak in full after being sacked as home secretary | Politics News | Sky News

  4. #4
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    My my, such attention on a topic as important as 'The UK is so fucked that Sunak thinks Cameron and his suckling pig are part of the answer'.

    That pisshead stokey will be getting fixated on me too soon, before groping around incoherently for a prescient segment he's watched on 'GB News'.

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    Sunak is completely delusional.

    Now, read below, true blues obfuscating...

  7. #7
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    well, if tax dodging lefty hypocrites such as cyrille, who was born, educated and trained on the states coin in the uk before jumping ship to work tax free in some medieval islamic dictatorship and then retiring to spend his free time sneering at the uk from the sidelines blah blah blah.

    the long-term sick and sub-par capabilities of addressing mental illness,
    oh ffs, man up and cry me a river for the work shy whingeing fuckers who blow their money on scratch cards and beer before feeding their families.

    but as they say, one mans headache is another mans happiness.

    with pension increases, both government and private, of 10%, interest rates of over 6% on savings, a lucky win for me on the premium bonds and with my stocks paying out surprisingly good dividends, this year has been particularly rewarding for me. my britain is certainly not broken.
    Last edited by taxexile; 15-11-2023 at 09:43 PM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Sunak is completely delusional.

    Now, read below, true blues obfuscating...
    Does he tell lies and have a complete lack of moral fibre like you, and is he also shameless and ignorant?

    You really do have massive bollocks if you dare criticize anyone, when you have appalling standards of personal conduct yourself.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    You really do have massive bollocks if you dare criticize anyone, when you have appalling standards of personal conduct yourself.


    This should be interesting

  10. #10
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Over £140 Million spent on this utter fiasco in Rwanda.


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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    Head of State unelected by the people

    Half of the bicameral legislature unelected by the people

    Prime Minister unelected by the people

    Foreign Secretary unelected by the people
    Begs the question... whatya gotta do to get elected in Basket Case Britain?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    tax dodging lefty hypocrites
    Typing that while having the username "taxexile" is peak hypocrisy.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    whingeing fuckers who blow their money on scratch cards


    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    a lucky win for me on the premium bonds

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post


    This should be interesting
    It won’t. Despite being called a liar, and having plenty of opportunity to deny that,or acknowledge it in any way, he still refuses to prove his lie about me being forced to leave Thailand under a cloud.

    He is obviously superior to anyone else who might be called a liar, and they choose to disprove it, or even acknowledge it as a mistake!

    Dont hold your breath waiting for Cyrille to respond to me. He obviously considers that I am too far beneath him to even consider a response in his defence of such deplorable behaviour.

    My apologies to other posters who are bored with his intransigence. Anyone who is innocent of such deplorable conduct, would probably defend themselves. If they had a leg to stand on that is.

    Not Cyrille. He is obviously immune to such calls for a reply, when I repeatedly call him a liar, his lack response is deafening.
    Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned.

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    Need folks with brains like Donald Trump.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    Typing that while having the username "taxexile" is peak hypocrisy.
    and does having the conveniently misspelled username "pickel" mean you are an alcoholic

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by spliff View Post
    Need folks with brains like Donald Trump.
    brexit proved that over 50 % of them do

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    brexit proved that over 50 % of them do
    Some could argue that 17 out of 68 a million is but a quarter and some of thise may have changed ther opinion as it unravelled,but thse who abstaied cannot really grumble.

  19. #19
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    And. We're of . Guaranteed shitfight going to occur here. Pickel is in the lead so far. Having pointed out a bit of hypocrisy. Has it all gone quiet on the Gaza strip? S landreths posts are of no use? Poor old mendy with his informative work and soi dog threads is almost single handedly responsible for 99% of good threads lately. Pag needs a mention to for his wonderful kitchen skills . And can't resist the op,s witty banter which keeps me on my toes.
    But I'm.off topic so crack on tax dodgers ,whingers and spell checkers

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    and does having the conveniently misspelled username "pickel" mean you are an alcoholic
    Your username is misspelled too, drunkard.

    You're just like Trump in that you think dodging taxes makes you smart, but everyone else who does it is a greedy scrounger. Peak hypocrisy.

  21. #21
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  22. #22
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    Brilliant PAG

    Last man in Britain without a roller trolley, I'm sure SAMcam would like something to tug

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    Quote Originally Posted by taxexile View Post
    well, if tax dodging lefty hypocrites such as cyrille, who was born, educated and trained on the states coin in the uk before jumping ship to work tax free in some medieval islamic dictatorship and then retiring to spend his free time sneering at the uk from the sidelines blah blah blah.


    oh ffs, man up and cry me a river for the work shy whingeing fuckers who blow their money on scratch cards and beer before feeding their families.

    but as they say, one mans headache is another mans happiness.

    with pension increases, both government and private, of 10%, interest rates of over 6% on savings, a lucky win for me on the premium bonds and with my stocks paying out surprisingly good dividends, this year has been particularly rewarding for me. my britain is certainly not broken.
    And there speaks a retired UK dentist.

    A man who has for decades milked the NHS system dry, a parasite with a voracious appetite for public money siphoned away under pretext after pretext, until the system finally collapsed from the fraud perpetrated upon it. And when a new system was imposed on these avaricious bandits what did they do? When they saw the cow couldn’t be milked any more they simply gave up all NHS workentirely and focused on ripping off the private sector.

    Frankly, scratch a dentist over the age of 60 and you generally find a Mengele lurking within. The “I’m alright Jack, fuck you “ attitude is their ethic, and they have no scruples in kicking folk aside as they steal a ride ensuring their greedy arses make it to Easy St. Tax would have dressed as a woman to get on a Titanic lifeboat.

    His entire wealth has been founded on inflicting pain, misery and ultimately futility. No wonder they are such strange embittered soulless folk.

  24. #24
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Thanks.

    I couldn't be arsed.

    Showing up tories and the unthinking, grasping morons who vote for them as wanchors is not 'sneering at the UK'.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    Typing that while having the username "taxexile" is peak hypocrisy.
    I took notice of that as well. What a clown.


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