Only 10 carmakers will survive global EV battle FT story

**david44** · 25-04-2023, 01:50 PM

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http://twitter.com/FT/status/1650685630903377921

The world’s automobile trade will shrink to solely 10 corporations over the approaching decade, a Chinese language rival to Elon Musk’s Tesla has stated, as intense competitors in China’s electrical car market spills on to the worldwide stage.
Brian Gu, vice-chair of Guangzhou-headquartered Xpeng, stated for Chinese language corporations to be among the many final carmakers standing, they would want to have annual gross sales of no less than 3mn automobiles, underpinned by world exports. The world’s largest carmaker Toyota bought 10.5mn automobiles in 2022, whereas Tesla bought 1.3mn.
The warning comes at a historic juncture for the worldwide automobile trade. China is on the cusp of overtaking Japan because the world’s largest exporter of automobiles by quantity after passing Germany final yr. On the identical time, slowing progress and an intense value warfare is pushing low-cost carmakers to the brink of collapse in China, the world’s largest automobile market.
“To be in that ‘3mn membership’ you can’t be a China-only participant, it’s important to be a worldwide participant. We expect in that state of affairs, possibly near half your quantity is coming from exterior of China,” Gu stated in an interview with the Monetary Instances.
“In 5 to 10 years, it’s going to be a way more concentrated market. I feel the [number] of gamers will in all probability be lowered to lower than 10 on the world stage,” stated Gu.
Xpeng, which was based in 2014 and raised $1.5bn in a 2020 preliminary public providing in New York, has been hit by intense competitors in China.
It ranked twelfth by gross sales amongst electric-vehicle makers in China through the first three months of the yr. The corporate, which bought greater than 120,000 automobiles in 2022, has been hit by an virtually 50 per cent decline in first-quarter gross sales this yr after Tesla minimize costs. In January, Xpeng was pressured to observe go well with, slashing the costs of three of its 4 fashions by as a lot as 13 per cent.
Gu, previously JPMorgan’s managing director and chair in Asia, struck a defensive tone over the gross sales stoop, blaming the timing of the corporate’s new mannequin launches. However he forecast that the market would stabilise within the second half of this yr.
“This yr, I feel we’re confronted with a really aggressive panorama,” he stated. “There’s clearly [price-cutting] stress . . . which not solely causes competitors but in addition creates hesitancy amongst customers.”
Gu acknowledged that deteriorating US-China relations sophisticated the corporate’s abroad growth plans.
Xpeng, which is backed by Alibaba and has invested closely in autonomous driving, is focusing on progress in Europe this yr however doesn’t have instant plans to promote automobiles within the US

**malmomike77** · 25-04-2023, 01:56 PM

^ Been a lot in the business news about this, there are loads of Chinky EV producers which are looking to sell into the EU and UK markets - the view is they'll decimate the tradition manufacturers with perhaps only a handful of premium marques left.

**bsnub** · 25-04-2023, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by malmomike77

the view is they'll decimate the tradition manufacturers with perhaps only a handful of premium marques left.

**malmomike77** · 25-04-2023, 02:24 PM

^ I wasn't talking about the cart manufacturers in the US

**Stretchy** · 25-04-2023, 02:43 PM

Originally Posted by david44

The world’s largest carmaker Toyota bought 10.5mn automobiles in 2022, whereas Tesla bought 1.3mn.

Surely sold, not bought.

**bsnub** · 25-04-2023, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by malmomike77

cart manufacturers in the US

What happened to the Brit car industry? Last I checked, there wasn't one.

**harrybarracuda** · 25-04-2023, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by bsnub

What happened to the Brit car industry? Last I checked, there wasn't one.

What does that have to do with it?

The chinkies own all the premium UK brands now.

The US won't be able to compete, will switch to manufacturing in chinkystan, and then once the chinkies have nicked all the IP they'll be selling knockoffs at massive discounts.

Like they're already doing with other makes.

**malmomike77** · 25-04-2023, 03:15 PM

The Chinkies make most of the batteries and can afford to undercut the mainstream western fossil fuel marques, their quality is catching up fast too - the reality is that most western EV manufacturers are too expensive atm and the Chinkies will grab market share as a result

**VocalNeal** · 25-04-2023, 03:31 PM

Is any farmer on the prairies going to buy an electric car? Someone will have to make at least hybrids.

**david44** · 25-04-2023, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by VocalNeal

Is any farmer on the prairies going to buy an electric car? Someone will have to make at least hybrids.

Are you thinking about charging?

Once cheap enough to buy and using own solar or charging range better seems like a market driven no brainer unless Detroit workers will live in dorms on noodles for a few bucks a day.

There are environmental issues about all the used batteries.

However battery technology is the key and big gas oil and nuke/electric frims won't miss a trick.

Outside of urban areas where parking, permits or daily charges will deter all but the rich to use public transport this can never serve farms unless electric robots become as cheap as chips.

I self piloting drones are allowed journey distances can be cut.

Like TD th future may less Mao and more TAXI

CAnnot foresee much change in the buffalo belt in my lifetime but diesel trucks will be in museums like typewriters.

Cannot wait to see electric helicopter tuktuk which scams passengers to visit a ChatGPT card game on the way to the TOM (jewellry)

**malmomike77** · 25-04-2023, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by david44

Cannot wait to see electric helicopter tuktuk

Urban-Air Port

**bsnub** · 25-04-2023, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The chinkies own all the premium UK brands now.

Exactly which brands are those? I think you need to lay off the weed pipe.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The US won't be able to compete, will switch to manufacturing in chinkystan, and then once the chinkies have nicked all the IP they'll be selling knockoffs at massive discounts.

Only 10 carmakers will survive global EV battle FT story-chong-smokingpipe-gif

**harrybarracuda** · 25-04-2023, 06:53 PM

Originally Posted by bsnub

Exactly which brands are those? I think you need to lay off the weed pipe.

You right, the wobblies and squareheads own a few, the chinkies own Lotus, MG and Leyland DAF.

**bsnub** · 26-04-2023, 05:49 AM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Leyland DAF.

Wrong again. They are owned by Paccar which is based here in Washington, they are the parent company of Peterbilt and Kenworth. The Germans got the best brands in Rolls-Royce and Bentley.

Paccar - Wikipedia

**Buckaroo Banzai** · 26-04-2023, 06:29 AM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The US won't be able to compete,

Good thing it a round number 10 or we would have to deal with odd numbers LOL.

Let's not announce the winner before in the first few minutes of the game. Things and strategies change.
What you say might be true if today's ,political ,technologica, manufacturing and economic paradigm remains the same .
But we all know, historically , that's never the case.
So let's wait and see how this thing plays out
As Samuel Clemens is reported to have said " reports of my deaths are greatly exaggerated"

**harrybarracuda** · 26-04-2023, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by bsnub

Wrong again. They are owned by Paccar which is based here in Washington, they are the parent company of Peterbilt and Kenworth. The Germans got the best brands in Rolls-Royce and Bentley.

Paccar - Wikipedia

Leyland DAF Vans. Owned by SAIC.

**harrybarracuda** · 26-04-2023, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai

Let's not announce the winner before in the first few minutes of the game.

I didn't put a time on it. The chinkies play the long game.

**Buckaroo Banzai** · 26-04-2023, 01:01 PM

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I didn't put a time on it. The chinkies play the long game.

The Chines might be playing the long game but they do not have a crystal ball. When they get there they might find out that it's entirely a different game,
All I am saying is that it's to early in the game to call it. Based on current information on conditions it might look like, but as conditions have a nasty habit to change so will the information that could lead to a different occlusion.
I remember a time where conditions indicated that Japan was going to dominate the world's industries .

Perhaps this might end up not being a zero sum game. I certainly hope so.

**panama hat** · 26-04-2023, 03:24 PM

The Chinese problem with the long game is that the system may not last . . . democracies continue when the ruling party loses an election . . . if Xi gets ousted one way or the other the CCP and China is fucked. That may sound like a good thing but imagine 1.5 billion unhappy Chinese creating chaos.

Umm, aren't they developing a rocket to settle space?

. . . but in case it's bigger:

**Buckaroo Banzai** · 26-04-2023, 07:23 PM

Originally Posted by panama hat

The Chinese problem with the long game is that the system may not last

That's a very astute observation that I must admit I had not considered.
Top down authoritarian regimes have the advantage of being able to react without the "Paralysis of analysis" but they do the fatal flaw you mentioned.
PS: I have three places that I frequent. USA, Greece , and Thailand , and they are all in the green zone. Perhaps I should start wearing a hardhat,

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