Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 87
  1. #1
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    17,216

    A disaster for All Concerned: Taiwan War Games

    Taiwan-Invasion War Game by US Think Tank Sees China Quickly Flopping


    • DC think tank says US subs, aircraft would exact costly toll
    • But defending Taiwan would come at a ‘high cost’ to the US too



    Taiwanese soldiers participate in a military exercise simulating an invasion by China in Kaohsiung, in Jan. 2022.Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
    By Anthony Capaccio

    January 10, 2023 at 12:27 AM GMT+7

    A hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan “quickly founders” but exacts high costs on the island democracy and the US Navy, according to the results of an extensive set of war games released Monday by a Washington think tank.

    Despite “massive Chinese bombardment, Taiwanese ground forces stream to the beachhead, where the invaders struggle to build up supplies and move inland” as “US submarines, bombers, and fighter aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet,” in the “most likely” scenario, the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded.

    Retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials participated in 24 rounds of the tabletop exercise. Participants hunched like chess players alongside analysts from CSIS, moving forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan.

    China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships “cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous” but “there is one major assumption here: Taiwan must resist and not capitulate. If Taiwan surrenders before US forces can be brought to bear, the rest is futile” and “this defense comes at a high cost,” CSIS said.

    The US and Japan “lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members” and “such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” CSIS said in the report.
    Japan’s Role

    While Australia and South Korea are important in the broader competition with China and may play some role in the defense of Taiwan, “Japan is the linchpin. Without the use of US bases in Japan, US fighter/attack aircraft cannot effectively participate in the war,” CSIS found.
    Although Taiwan’s military is “unbroken” by a Chinese invasion “it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services.” China “also suffers heavily”as “its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” the war games suggest.

    The annual Han Kuang military drills aimed to test how the armed forces would repel an invasion from China in Taichung in 2020.
    Photographer: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images

    Vulnerable Navy

    Another major finding: The US Navy surface fleet is “extremely vulnerable,” with it “typically losing two carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants in game iterations,” CSIS said.

    Based on the wargame results, the US should “prioritize submarines and other undersea platforms,” as those vessels “were able to enter the Chinese defensive zone and wreak havoc with the Chinese fleet, but numbers were inadequate,” said CSIS.

    Hypersonics Caveat

    The US should also “continue development and fielding of hypersonic weapons but recognize that they are niche weapons” and “their high cost limits inventories, so they lack the volume needed to counter the immense numbers of Chinese air and naval platforms,” CSIS said.






    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  2. #2
    Member

    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 03:18 PM
    Location
    Back in Farangland
    Posts
    315
    Would the US attack China? Probably best to attack Winnie the Pooh's invaders both in China and Taiwan.

  3. #3
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    Assumes neither side will use WMDs

  4. #4
    Member

    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 03:18 PM
    Location
    Back in Farangland
    Posts
    315
    How dangerous is Xi? Surely Putin's misfortunes in Ukraine are making him think twice.

  5. #5
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    38,456
    Oh looky, the Pentagon and death merchants want yet more money.

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat VocalNeal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:48 PM
    Location
    The Kingdom of Lanna
    Posts
    12,992
    ^ You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to sabang again.

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    27-03-2024 @ 06:14 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    4,658
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    A hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan “quickly founders”
    This sounds to me like something made public for the specific purpose of telling China they won't win so don't start. I don't think it will change much.

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    telling China they won't win
    China has stated publicly it has no desire for a war, unlike the 16% promoting one.

    It indicates, equally, that NaGaStan and its vassals will not win, subject to nuclear weapons usage. Even then, whose results be more devastating, claimed superiority, ability to survive internally, ....

    The 16% alleged political, financial and military superiority, is, as being illustrated in the current European land war, an illusion.
    Last edited by OhOh; 10-01-2023 at 11:36 AM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat
    Takeovers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 04:41 PM
    Location
    Berlin Germany
    Posts
    7,056
    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    China has stated publicly it has no desire for a war, unlike the 16% promoting one.
    Right. Just like Putin with Ukraine, Xi would prefer unconditional surrender by Taiwan. But China unequivocally declares they reserve the right to conquer Taiwan if they don't surrender.

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    17,216
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    China “also suffers heavily ”as “its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken
    ...if this prediction is among possible outcomes, China might lose its ability to enforce claims to the South China Sea and possibly diminish its rapacious fishing fleets...

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat
    malmomike77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2021
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    13,674
    China will not do anything until it is reasonably certain of the outcome and besides any military losses it has an example in Russia as to the wests' reaction economically, albeit sanctions could prove a little more challenging to enforce.

  12. #12
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Just like Putin with Ukraine
    1. The LORD sent the 16% discussion documents late 2021, they were ignored.

    2. The 16% attacked the then sovereign Donbass countries, which bordered Russia.

    3. The sovereign countries and Russia agreed a defence alliance.

    4. The sovereign requested support, which Russia responded too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    Xi would prefer unconditional surrender by Taiwan
    Surrender what to China?

    1. China prefers to allow the Chinese island of Tiawa's citizens to democratically choose a local government committed to desire unification with China. The relationship to be agreed.

    Similar to The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, may be an acceptable to both parties example.

    2. However, if the 16% attack China, militarily, financially or economically, China will respond.

    Similar to Russia response to the 16%'s militarily, financial or economically, attacking the then Donbas, now Russian, citizens.

    Although I doubt China will wait 8 years or so, as Russia did to respond militarily. China has all the tools necessary to defend its citizens from any strategic and global threats.

  13. #13
    In Uranus
    bsnub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    30,429
    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    The 16% attacked the then sovereign Donbass countries, which bordered Russia.
    Do fuck off with that utter trash.

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    However, if the 16% attack China, militarily, financially or economically, China will respond.
    China would be decimated.

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Similar to Russia response to the 16%'s militarily, financial or economically, attacking the then Donbas, now Russian, citizens.


    Fantasy land nonsense.

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    China has all the tools necessary to defend its citizens from any strategic and global threats.
    China's military is just as shit as Russia's. It would get its shit packed in.

    The useful idiot's clown car is on the move tonight.

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    38,456
    Why would China amphibiously invade Taiwan- which is well defended, when they can just Blockade it by land and sea, plus take a leaf out of uncle sams book and freeze/ confiscate all Taiwanese assets in mainland China? They are quite adept at playing the long game.

    Furthermore, from the point of view of international law it would be a civil war/ dispute.
    Last edited by sabang; 10-01-2023 at 05:01 PM.

  15. #15
    In Uranus
    bsnub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    30,429
    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    when they can just Blockade it by land and sea
    They can not blockade it. The US Navy would pack their shit in. The Chinese Navy is big, but it is total shit, just like the Russian army.

  16. #16
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    besides any military losses it has an example in Russia as to the wests' reaction economically, albeit sanctions could prove a little more challenging to enforce.
    1. Many military paper exercise over the years will have concluded that, a non-nuclear attack against China by the 16%, would fail.

    2. The current example of non-military actions indicates sanctions have failed miserably, economically, politically and domestically. And that against Russia!

    Try similar against China at your peril.

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    38,456
    ^^ The US navy is in a mess, and the US military had it's shit packed in by Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. You've just told a Chinese John Wayne joke.

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 03:24 PM
    Posts
    18,509
    Are you part Chink coolie, Sabang?

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    38,456
    No, but as an aussie I get some nice Chinese fortune cookies. So do the Taiwanese incidentally. This talk of a China/ Taiwan ciivil war is only coming from amerka, and it's death merchants.

  20. #20
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    สุโขทัย
    Posts
    10,149
    The continued dumbed down consciousness of such boogiemen.
    All....still quite profitable for the empire.

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat
    Ukan Kizmiaz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Last Online
    24-03-2024 @ 03:57 PM
    Posts
    1,487
    last time I looked taiwan was off the coast of China - and I don't think that is going to change in the future.

    But I guess if you're a Pentagonian, so is the US...

    BUT its good for business - this and the ukraine

  22. #22
    In Uranus
    bsnub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    30,429
    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    The US navy is in a mess


    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    the US military had it's shit packed in by Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
    No it didn't. The US military won all the battles, the politicians lost the war. The fact that you do not understand such realities is further evidence that you are an utter imbecile.

    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    The continued dumbed down consciousness of such boogiemen.
    FOJ

  23. #23
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Similar to The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, may be an acceptable to both parties example.
    One looks forward to the Taiwan elections coming this year. Last year threw a few surprises.

    Taiwan’s Local Elections and Cross-Strait Relations

    The recent elections could offer some valuable insights.



    By KAWASHIMA Shin


    December 18, 2022

    "In unified local elections held for the first time since 2018, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has suffered a stunning defeat. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT, Kuomintang) not only held its ground, but made some notable gains, including Chiang Kai-shek’s great-grandson, Chiang Wan-an winning in Taipei.

    Accepting responsibility for this loss, President Tsai Ing-wen stepped down as chair of the DPP. The results show the Taiwanese electorate shifting support to the KMT, a party seen as more favorably disposed to China.

    While this could mark a new phase in cross-strait relations, seeing it as a step closer to unification is a serious misunderstanding. The DPP will need to take the results of these elections seriously, but it is premature to conclude that the KMT will dominate the 2024 presidential election."

    Taiwan’s Local Elections and Cross-Strait Relations – The Diplomat

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    38,456
    No it didn't.
    Yes it did. No amount of "woulda coulda shoulda" changes that cowboy.

  25. #25
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    สุโขทัย
    Posts
    10,149
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post



    No it didn't. The US military won all the battles.....
    Oh dear. How embarrassing.
    Someone needs to brush up on their contemporary history and real historic perspective.


    Guessing that flag-waving is the definitive mind numbing deluding drug.

Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •