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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat HermantheGerman's Avatar
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    Lula may clinch Brazil election on Sunday

    Brazilians vote on their new president. In the polls, left-wing former head of state Lula da Silva is clearly ahead. However, President Bolsonaro raised doubts about the electoral system in advance.

    This is not going to end good

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Bolsonaro will do what the bald orange turd did.

  3. #3
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    ​With more than 95% of votes counted, Lula still ahead, but not by enough to avoid run-offs https://twitter.com/helenrsullivan/s...25824555741184

    Last edited by S Landreth; 03-10-2022 at 07:21 AM.

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Brazil election: ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins vote but not outright victory


    Acrimonious election will go to a second round after the former president failed to secure a majority over Jair Bolsonaro

    Brazil election: ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins vote but not outright victory | Brazil | The Guardian
    Warning: Be cautious if you are a fragile pink

  5. #5
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Last edited by S Landreth; 03-10-2022 at 08:10 AM.

  6. #6
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    What the future holds……


    Lula – 51%
    Bolsonaro – 39%

    Say Bolsonaro receives all the “Blank” votes and “Not Sure” votes

    Bolsonaro – 48%
    Lula – 51%

    Bolsonaro will become another loser.

  7. #7
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    It’s still early.




    Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has a seven-point-lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of an Oct. 30 runoff vote, according to a poll by Genial/Quaest published on Thursday.

    The election headed for a run-off vote after far-right Bolsonaro beat expectations in Sunday's first-round vote, ruining the hopes of leftist Lula, who was president from 2003 to 2010, that he could win outright.

    Lula had 48% voter support versus Bolsonaro's 41%, according to the latest survey.

    Pollsters were widely criticized after the first-round vote for greatly underestimating support for Bolsonaro.

    The survey by pollster Genial/Quaest interviewed 2,000 people between Oct. 3 and 5 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    Bolsonaro, the Tropical Trump
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  8. #8
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Lula should get a nice size bump from this news (48.4 + 4.2 + 3.0)




    he candidate who finished third in Brazil's first-round presidential election gave her endorsement Wednesday to leftist veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for his runoff against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

    Center-right Senator Simone Tebet won 4.2 percent of the vote Sunday -- the first choice of nearly five million Brazilians whose votes Lula (48.4 percent) and Bolsonaro (43.2 percent) both want in the October 30 runoff.

    Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic whose support could be key to swaying socially conservative and women voters, criticized both ex-president Lula (2003-2010) and Bolsonaro at a news conference in Sao Paulo.

    But she said there was no doubt which was worse.

    "These past four years, Brazil has been consumed by a bonfire of hate and strife," she said, attacking Bolsonaro over his Covid-19 "denialism," pro-gun policies and the 30 million Brazilians living in hunger.

    "I maintain my criticism of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva... but I will give him my vote, because I recognize his commitment to democracy and the constitution, which I have never seen from the current president."

    The endorsement came after her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) -- whose leadership was split between pro-Bolsonaro and pro-Lula camps -- said members could back whichever man they wanted.

    Lula also scored an endorsement from his predecessor as president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), the center-right politician who beat him in the 1994 and 1998 elections.

    Cardoso wrote on Twitter that he would cast his vote for Lula's "history of struggle for democracy and social inclusion."

    He posted two pictures of himself and his successor over the years -- a black-and-white image from 1980, and a more recent one in color.

    "Thank you for your vote and your trust," Lula replied.

    Lula also got an endorsement Tuesday -- albeit a grudging one -- from center-left rival Ciro Gomes, Sunday's fourth-place candidate (three percent).

    Bolsonaro, whose far-right movement scored big gains in Congressional and governor's races Sunday, has meanwhile gotten endorsements from the governors of Brazil's three biggest states -- Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro -- as well as influential corruption-busting ex-judge Sergio Moro.

    He added to the list Wednesday with the backing of the governors of Brasilia, Parana and Goias.

    _______

    I don’t think Bolsonaro will be sending any love letters to this loser, after the Oct. 30 runoff.

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    I really do think Bolsonaro is going to do a baldy orange cunto, unless he feels he has lined his pockets and protected himself sufficiently to slope off back under his rock with his filthy lucre, for a life of unearned luxury.

  10. #10
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    This might not be helpful.




    It was a shocking statement, even for a politician glorifying the executioners and demanding that his opponents be shot.

    Jair Bolsonaro boasted to a foreign journalist in 2016, describing a trip to an indigenous community where he was allegedly offered the opportunity to eat human flesh: “I used to eat Indian, no problem at all.”

    ndigenous leaders have dismissed Bolsonaro’s bragging as yet another lie from Brazil’s far-right president. Yanomami residents from the province where Bolsonaro claims to have visited say they have never been involved in such actions.

    But footage of Bolsonaro’s comments about cannibalism – which were first broadcast on his official YouTube channel six years ago – went viral on social media and were seized by the Brazilian opposition as further evidence of the president’s corruption.

    “Bolsonaro has revealed that he will eat human flesh,” Television Advertisement Produced by Bolsonaro’s left-wing rival, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, it was announced on Friday after anthropomorphic comments were discovered.

    Lula nearly beat Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election last Sunday and hopes to finish the job when 156 million Brazilians voted in the second round of the confrontation between the two men on October 30.

    In a bid to re-elect Lula, Brazil’s president from 2003 to 2010, left-wing market traders delved into Bolsonaro’s vast back catalog of harsh and alarming statements.

    Modern one Lola Advertising Bolsonaro is shown pushing a politician and calling her a “whore”. In another scene, Right taunts Covid victims and pretends to be gasping for air.

    But Friday’s Eat People campaign announcement was perhaps the most shocking yet.

    Bolsonaro’s communications minister, Fabio Faria, called Lula’s announcement “fake news” ( ) and claimed the comments had been misrepresented. Bolsonaro’s lawyers have called on electoral authorities to ban the campaign advertisement.

    But analysis of the full 76-minute interview with New York Times journalist Simon Romero leaves little doubt about the nature of Bolsonaro’s comments.

    After describing the destitution he witnessed during a visit to Haiti, Bolsonaro goes from discussing “unhealthy” Haitian women offering sex to making allegations about cannibalism allegedly committed in the Yanomami region of the Amazon.

    “There was this time I was in Surucuru… and an Indian was dead and they were cooking it. They cook the Indians. It’s their culture,” Bolsonaro claims in the reporter’s apparent confusion.

    “Their bodies?” The journalist responds.

    “Their bodies,” Bolsonaro asserts.

    “But don’t you eat?” asks the journalist.

    “Yes, to eat,” replied Bolsonaro, then an obscure member of Congress. “They cook it for two or three days and then eat it with bananas. I wanted to see an Indian being cooked but the guy said if you go, you have to eat it. I said, ‘I will eat it.’ But no one else in my group wanted to go… so I didn’t I go. But I’ve been eating Indian, no problem at all. It’s their culture.”

    Yanomami leaders and anthropologists have denounced Bolsonaro’s “rave” and biased claims. Yanomami activist Junior Yanomami told Folha de São Paulo newspaper: “My people are not cannibals…This does not exist and has never existed, not even among our ancestors.”

    ‘Bolsonaro compulsive liar’ chirp Sonia Guajajara, an indigenous leader who has just been elected to Congress.

    Lula denied spreading misinformation. “I watched the footage… It’s not an invention, we are simply letting people know what our opponent is like,” he told his supporters, claiming that foreigners avoid Brazil “for fear of cannibals.”

    On Saturday, a preliminary ruling by an election judge ordered Lula’s Labor Party (PT) to withdraw an ad that threatens to damage Bolsonaro’s reputation and affects the “integrity of the electoral process”. The judge argued that Bolsonaro’s notes “refer to a specific experience in an indigenous community, living according to the values ​​and morals that exist in that community.”

    The decision seemed to close the stable door after the horse withdrew. By Sunday, social media was awash with mention of “Bolsonaro’s cannibal” and memes resembling President Hannibal Lecter and serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer. Bolsonaro’s announcement footage has been viewed millions of times.


    https://twitter.com/FBSCKOUT/status/1577691273103818753 - https://twitter.com/hashtag/BolsonaroCanibal
    Last edited by S Landreth; 10-10-2022 at 12:33 PM.

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    The first round of Brazil’s presidential election, held last weekend, promises greater drama to come. The lead story from those results was that President Jair Bolsonaro trailed challenger and favorite to win Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by just five points (48.4%-43.2%), about half the margin that pre-election polls led us to expect. Lula, president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, remains likely to win the second-round runoff on October 30 and again become chief executive, but the challenges ahead, for him and for his country, will be daunting.

    He’ll win because most supporters of now-eliminated candidate Simone Tebet, who won just over 4% of the vote, are more likely to support him than Bolsonaro. That alone should push Lula above 50%, and he will also draw some support from voters for Ciro Gomes, who won about 3%. In fact, Lula’s margin of victory is more likely to widen in the second round than to narrow, whatever Bolsonaro’s surprisingly strong first-round number suggests about his campaign and its momentum.

    For Lula, election victory is where the good news ends, because a better-than-expected performance from right-wing parties that support Bolsonaro in congress, and in many races for state governorships, will limit Lula’s ability to advance an ambitious economic and social agenda. His victory will come largely thanks to promises to boost economic and social support for Brazilians who need it during tough economic times, but determined resistance from opposition lawmakers will frustrate his ability to raise taxes and increase government spending.

    In fact, the PL, Bolsonaro’s party, will be the largest single party in both houses, and opposition parties of the right will now hold half the seats in Brazil’s lower house. Lula might still manage to build a working coalition in both houses by cutting deals with centrist and independent parties as well as with moderate lawmakers who align with pro-Bolsonaro parties for tactical rather than ideological reasons. But that would force Lula into the compromises that undermine his plans to spend state money to help consumers weather inflation and to ease growing wealth inequality. And if failure to deliver damages his popularity, he will find it still harder to negotiate his way out of congressional gridlock.


    The immediate market response to the first-round results was positive. Both the currency and stock prices strengthened. In part, that’s because investors who fear that Lula will tax and spend Brazil into fiscal trouble saw great hope in the numbers for a Bolsonaro second-round upset. The incumbent, many investors believe, would keep market-friendly reforms moving through congress. But it’s also because they recognize that even if Lula wins, he will face much greater legislative resistance than he had to contend with during his first presidency. Markets may also like the fact that, despite his party’s gains, Bolsonaro’s opposition bloc won’t have the votes to destabilize Brazil’s politics by amending its constitution or by trying to impeach Lula or supreme court justices it doesn’t like.


    What we see in Brazil is part of a larger trend across Latin America. As Lula will quickly discover, it’s an increasingly tough time to be in power in that region. Economic slowdowns in China and America are weighing heavily on growth. Inflation is surging, and governments have few tools to manage it because the higher cost of living is mainly the result of inflation in other countries. Public anger was on the rise even before COVID-19 arrived to make matters much worse.


    In many countries, voters have ejected right-wing incumbents in favor of left-wing candidates who pledge state help, but domestic opposition and poor economic conditions abroad prevent them from delivering, increasing the risk of protests and destabilizing political unrest. Chile was rocked by noisy demonstrations before the pandemic took hold. Colombia saw violence in the lead-up to elections that produced that country’s first leftist president. Protests triggered by high fuel prices earlier this year in Peru, Ecuador, and Panama made international headlines. Brazil has seen massive demonstrations before over issues like fare increases on city busses. This is what Lula has to look forward to.


    And while we’re on the subject of protests… there’s the more immediate problem for Brazil that President Bolsonaro is
    ready to cry foul when he doesn’t win. For months, he has laid the groundwork for claims that the vote has been rigged against him, and the closer-than-expected first-round result will make matters worse by both convincing his supporters he has a real chance to win in the second round and that polling is not to be trusted.


    There is an important silver lining in this storm cloud. Bolsonaro will have fewer options to cloud the case as Donald Trump did following his loss to Joe Biden in the U.S. 2020 presidential election. Brazil’s federal election system means that Bolsonaro can’t try to use state governments to manipulate the outcome, and there’s no evidence that suggests Brazil’s military leadership is more willing than the Pentagon was to launch a coup on behalf of a defeated incumbent.

    For Brazil these days, that’s as good as good news gets.

    Lula Will Likely Win Brazil'''s Election. Then Things Get Hard | Time

  12. #12
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly broadened his lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the Oct. 30 runoff vote, according to a survey by pollster IPEC published on Monday.

    Lula's voter support reached 51% against 42% for Bolsonaro, compared with 51% and 43%, respectively, in the previous poll.

    The survey by IPEC interviewed 2,000 people on Oct. 8-10 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down. IPEC was one of several polling firms criticized for underestimating support for Bolsonaro in the first-round vote early this month.

    ___________




    If elected as Brazil’s president, Lula da Silva will update the country’s “insufficient” climate plan, his environmental spokesperson told Climate Home.

    The South American country of 212 million —and the world’s sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter— is headed to a second electoral round 30 October. In the running are incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who led the first round of voting with 48.4% of the votes.

    Izabella Teixeira, Brazil’s former environment minister under Lula and head of his environment team, promised to update country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, which outlines its plans to cut emissions.

    “It is evident that Brazil’s numbers today are insufficient. These will be reviewed and Brazil’s NDC will once again become an instrument for the country’s credibility for Brazilians and the international community. Brazil needs a new NDC,” she said.

    Independent analysts at Climate Action Tracker rate Brazil’s latest 2030 emissions target as “almost sufficient” to hold global temperature rise below 2C. But policy action was “insufficient” to deliver, they judged, citing rising deforestation and an expanded role for fossil oil and gas in energy plans.

    In the lead up to the election, climate activists pushed for Lula’s campaign to update Brazil’s NDC in the first 100 days of government. Teixeira declined to commit to such a deadline.

    The next government first needs to revisit the technical studies that form the basis for targets in the context of development goals, she said. “We need to understand what is on the table, understand what society wants, (aim to) make a big pact, because the private sector has advanced, the financial sector has advanced.”

    There is insufficient data to understand the “industrial transition” and role of Brazil’s voluntary carbon market, Teixeira added. “We can’t be irresponsible, say that we have renegotiated and delivered anything. I built the most ambitious NDC that Brazil has ever done, in 2015, and it took a year.”

    If Lula wins the presidential election, he faces the challenge of rebuilding Brazil’s environmental image while working with a Congress that has swung further to the right.

    Brazil proposed its first NDC in September 2015 and has updated it twice since, in 2020 and in 2022. In both updates, made under Bolsonaro’s term as president, the country used accounting tricks to weaken its climate goals.

    In 2020, the country committed to a 37% emission reduction by 2025 and 43% by 2030, but changed the baseline year for the calculation. This allowed for more emissions than the previous version, violating the Paris Agreement.

    After pressure from civil society and the international community, Brazil updated its NDC in April 2022, but it still allows the emission of 73 MtCO2e more than what was first proposed in 2015.

    The revision of the NDC is one of the proposals listed in the document Brazil 2045, presented in May this year by the Climate Observatory, a network of 73 civil society organizations, for the country to go beyond carbon neutrality in 2050.

    The document was delivered to all candidates except to the current president Jair Bolsonaro. For the organization, “with Bolsonaro there is no future for environmental policy in Brazil”.

    Revisiting the country’s current target is a fundamental step for Brazil to rebuild trust with the international community, said Stela Herschmann, climate policy expert at the Climate Observatory. This alone is not enough, she added, as the goal must align with scientific evidence.

    “We need to present an implementation strategy, which we don’t have today. We don’t say how we are going to reach the number. We also need a long-term goal, we need to talk about adaptation and make sure that the NDC allows effective public participation”, he says.

    According to Teixeira, Lula’s priority is to curb deforestation, the country’s main source of emissions, which has surged to a decade high under Bolsonaro.

    In the last four years, deforestation in the Amazon increased by more than 50% and forest fires in the region have also increased. Environmental crimes are on the rise, including the illegal occupation of land in protected areas, invasions of indigenous territories and the assassination of indigenous leaders.

    During the years 2020 and 2021, Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 9.5%. Of all emissions, 46% are due to deforestation, mainly driven by illegal mining and livestock expansion.

    Preliminary reports indicate that in 2022 deforestation will reach record levels in the Amazon region.

    “Combating deforestation is an ethical question… It is not an economic activity, it is one of control and inspection. We will do this and, at the same time, design mitigation and resilience strategies,” said the former minister.

    Tackling deforestation is Brazil’s “greatest challenge” but also “its greatest opportunity”, said Herschmann. “We have a competitive advantage, a gigantic forest, and we can invest in reforestation to increase carbon reabsorption.”

  13. #13
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    OCTOBER 5, 2022
    Media Spin Lula Victory as Defeat

    BRIAN MIER






    From the way that the Anglo media are treating the October 2 Brazilian first-round presidential elections, a casual news consumer may get the impression that the Brazilian Workers Party suffered a crushing defeat. It takes an incredible amount of spin to create this impression. In order to pull this off, several important facts have to be downplayed or ignored.


    The Guardian (10/3/22) turns Lula’s first-round victory into a loss to expectations.


    Workers Party candidate Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by 6.2 million votes. This represents the first time since the return to democracy in 1985 that a challenger has ever beaten an incumbent in a Brazilian first-round presidential election, and no incumbent has ever lost reelection.

    There are reasons for this. The incumbent has the entire weight of the state behind them. This enables them to, for example, issue an executive order to bypass constitutionally mandated spending caps during election season to artificially lower the prices of food, cooking gas and gasoline, and dish out billions of reais in pork to fickle center-right allies in Congress, as Bolsonaro did this year.

    Political comeback for the ages

    Brazil has two-thirds the population of the US, so Lula’s win on Saturday would be the equivalent of a victory by over 9 million votes in a US presidential election—something which has not happened since 2008.

    This historic victory, which beat his previous best first-round performance by 10 million votes, is even more astounding when the fact that Lula has suffered character assassination in the national and international media on a near daily basis for nine years is taken into consideration. The media treated him as guilty before proven innocent, consistently repeating outlandish accusations made by the corrupt prosecution team, as it worked closely with the US Department of Justice and FBI, while completely ignoring the defense lawyers.

    FULL- https://fair.org/home/media-spin-lul...ory-as-defeat/


  14. #14
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    This historic victory, which beat his previous best first-round performance by 10 million votes, is even more astounding when the fact that Lula has suffered character assassination in the national and international media on a near daily basis for nine years is taken into consideration.
    It's not when you consider it's a measure of how much the Brazilian people are fed up with Bolsonaro's bullshit.

  15. #15
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Getting nastier……..




    Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have resorted to unedifying attacks as they fight for crucial votes ahead of what is expected to be a tight second round poll at the end of the month.

    Bolsonaro’s campaign on Tuesday released a television advert linking the leftwing Lula to criminality, saying he received the most votes from prison inmates in the recent first round of voting.

    Another attack ad focused on the history of corruption under Lula’s Workers’ party, suggesting voters would be complicit if they backed the former president.

    Allies of Lula, meanwhile, have seized on a 2016 video of Bolsonaro in which the then-lawmaker said he had been prepared to engage in cannibalism while on a trip to the Amazon rainforest with an indigenous tribe.

    “Bolsonaro would eat human flesh,” screamed a campaign video released after the first-round vote on October 2 that was later banned by the country’s electoral court.

    The attacks show how the gloves have come off in the race for the presidency of Latin America’s most populous democracy as the distance between the two candidates has narrowed.

    The two polarising politicians will compete in a runoff on October 30, after a closer than expected but inconclusive first round. In that vote, Lula secured 48.4 per cent of valid ballots while Bolsonaro won 43.2 per cent, confounding pollsters who had pegged his support in the high thirties.

    Bolsonaro will need more than 6mn additional votes in the run-off to be re-elected.

    Lula’s rejection rate among voters has risen sharply since the first round vote. A survey by Datafolha late last week found it had risen by 6 percentage points, while Bolsonaro’s had dropped by one percentage point.

    Both candidates have cried foul over the new attack videos and levelled charges of fake news, although the offending content is often not created by the campaign teams themselves.

    Filipe Campante, professor at Johns Hopkins University, said such adverts were the “natural consequence of the dominant role of social media in the political media landscape”.

    He continued: “Social media has two key distinctive features that matter here. One, outrageous content generates more engagement, and engagement is king.

    “Two . . . anyone is a content provider. So outrageous content can be put out there with a bit more distance from the official campaign.”

    After a first round campaign dominated by two divisive personalities that was short on policy details, citizens hopeful of more illuminating debate on topics such as the economy have so far been disappointed.

    The baser allegations against Lula target the sensibilities of evangelical Christians, a growing community in Brazil that tends to be socially conservative, accounts for about one-third of the 215mn population and is a pillar of Bolsonaro’s support.

    Lula’s team has been forced to deny he plans to close churches and defend him against accusations of Satanism, insisting on his own Christian faith. “Lula does not have a pact nor has ever conversed with the devil,” read one flyer published this week.

    “This type of debate has been a fertile ground for Bolsonaro to keep his base energised over the past years,” said Mario Braga, a senior analyst at Control Risks.

    Bolsonaro’s campaign has been boosted by key victories in gubernatorial races. In Minas Gerais, a key swing state in the country’s south-east, governor Romeu Zema has pledged support for Bolsonaro and could play a crucial role in turning the region that voted for Lula in the first round.

  16. #16
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's polling lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed to less than 5 percentage points, according to a new opinion survey published on Thursday by pollster AtlasIntel.

    In its first poll since the first-round vote on Oct. 2, pollster AtlasIntel found 51.1% of voters for Lula and 46.5% behind Bolsonaro. Excluding undecided voters and null votes, Lula has 52.4% support and Bolsonaro 47.6%.

    In the first round of the polarized presidential election, with an initial field of nine candidates, Lula won 48% of the votes against 43% for Bolsonaro, setting the terrain for an unexpectedly competitive runoff on Oct. 30.

    "The snapshot from this survey shows a more difficult fight for Lula than appeared at first, but with a certain advantage setting in for Lula that will be difficult to overcome," said Andrei Roman, chief executive of AtlasIntel.

    AtlasIntel was one of several polling firms criticized for underestimating support for Bolsonaro in the first round, although it was closer than several more traditional pollsters. AtlasIntel had registered a 9-point lead for Lula ahead of that vote, when in fact the difference was just 5 points.

    Thursday's poll showed that 53.3% of Brazilian voters disapprove of Bolsonaro's performance as president, versus 44.2% that approve of his way of governing Brazil, improving significantly from March, when 65% disapproved and 33% approved.

    Bolsonaro needs to gain 6 million additional votes to win re-election, while Lula needs 1.2 million to get elected in what would be a third term for the former president who served from 2003-2010.

    AtlasIntel interviewed 4,500 voters nationwide that were recruited randomly over the Internet, between Oct 8-12. The poll has a margin of error on 1 percentage point.

    ___________



  17. #17
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    • Lula calls Bolsonaro a ‘little dictator’ in the Brazilian TV debate


    The left-wing frontrunner, who is set to become Brazil’s next president, branded far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro as a “teeny little dictator” and “king of fake news and stupidity” during a televised debate that will help define the political future of one of the world’s citizens “. largest democracies.

    Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who almost defeated Bolsonaro in the first round of September’s presidential election, chastised his opponent during the lively two-hour encounter over his handling of Covid and the rapid deforestation of the Amazon.

    “The fact is, your negligence caused 680,000 deaths — more than half of whom could have been saved,” Lula told Bolsonaro, whose sabotage of coronavirus containment measures and immunization efforts has sparked outrage around the world.

    “Never in history has there been a government that has messed around with a pandemic or with death like you have,” said 76-year-old Lula of Bolsonaro, who belittled Covid as “a little flu” and claimed he wasn’t been vaccinated.

    Lula, who is five or six points ahead of Bolsonaro according to polls ahead of the Oct. 30 runoff, also attacked his rival’s attack on the environment. “They showed no respect for the Amazon — none at all,” Lula said, promising to set up a ministry for indigenous people if an election is held.

    “We will win these elections so we can take care of the Amazon and ban the invasion of tribal lands and illegal mining.”

    Bolsonaro countered in the first direct debate between the two politicians during this year’s tough struggle for power.

    The far-right, who was elected in 2018 after Lula was jailed on corruption charges that were later dismissed, berated his opponent for the corruption scandals that wiped out his Labor Party’s (PT) 14-year tenure from 2003 to 2016. “You are a national disgrace,” Bolsonaro declared during the debate in Brazil’s largest city, São Paulo.

    Bolsonaro accused Lula of leaning towards left-wing autocrats, including leaders of Nicaragua and Venezuela, Daniel Ortega and Nicolás Maduro. But Lula dismissed those accusations, claiming it was Bolsonaro – a former soldier notorious for celebrating dictators like Chilean General Augusto Pinochet – who posed a threat to Brazil’s fledgling democracy.

    “My opponent is basically the most shameless liar there is,” Lula said. “I am the one who defends democracy and freedom – much more than this tiny little dictator… I want to rule this country democratically, as I have done twice before,” said the former union leader, who ruled from 2003 to 2010.

    Progressive Brazilians had hoped Lula would secure a eminent victory over Bolsonaro in the first round – but the populist, who admires Donald Trump, fared better than most polls had predicted, securing 43% of the vote versus Lula’s 48% . Polls had forecast Bolsonaro would receive no more than 37%.

    Lula is still the favorite to win but Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected performance means the election is likely to remain a nervous breakdown until the results are announced.

    In recent days, both candidates have launched a campaign blitz in the three southeastern states set to decide the exit, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Together they are home to nearly 64 million of Brazil’s 156 million voters.

    Last week, Lula visited one of Rio’s biggest favelas, Complexo do Alemão, to win over working-class voters.

    Bolsonaro risked alienating hundreds of thousands of favela dwellers during Sunday’s debate by claiming Lula visited the community to connect with criminals. “There were no police around you – only drug dealers,” Bolsonaro said, sparking outrage among favela activists.

    “Bolsonaro doesn’t like the poor. Bolsonaro doesn’t like black people. Bolsonaro doesn’t like those from the favela,” tweeted Rene Silva, the media activist from Complexo do Alemão who arranged Lula’s visit to the favela.

    Lula brands Bolsonaro ‘tiny little dictator’ in Brazil TV debate | Brazil | The Guardian

    ___________


    • Brazil's Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in presidential race -poll


    Brazil's presidential race has narrowed to a 4-percentage-point gap between leftist front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, and they are now statistically tied, according to a poll published on Wednesday.

    Datafolha said Lula now has 49% of voter support against 45% for Bolsonaro less than two weeks from the second-round runoff on Oct. 30, compared to 49% and 44% respectively in the previous poll five days ago.

    It was the first Datafolha survey since the presidential debate on Sunday, where Bolsonaro attacked corruption scandals under Lula's Workers Party, which governed from 2003 to 2016.

    Brazil's Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied in presidential race -poll | Reuters

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    The left-wing frontrunner, who is set to become Brazil’s next president, branded far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro as a “teeny little dictator” and “king of fake news and stupidity".
    Nailed it.

  19. #19
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Supporters of either, will believe fake news that will cast the opposition as the villain




    Brazil's election campaign has been an orgy of mudslinging, social media attacks and outright lies so outlandish they are sometimes comical.

    Here is a look from AFP's fact-checking team at some of the top disinformation techniques - none of them particularly high-tech - used in the online proxy wars between backers of far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the country's presidential runoff on Oct 30.

    QUOTES OUT OF CONTEXT

    One of the main methods seen in the social media disinformation campaign is editing context out of video footage to make the candidates appear to say something they have not.

    For example, a video was widely shared on Wednesday by Bolsonaro backers, including influential Evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, in which Lula says: "I have to lie. Politicians have to lie."

    The veteran leftist did utter those words the night before - but was mimicking Bolsonaro when he said it.

    "Bozo (his mocking nickname for the incumbent) is a compulsive liar," Lula, 76, said in a podcast interview. "He literally says, 'I have to lie.'"

    Bolsonaro, 67, has also been targeted with the tactic.

    In one clip, he appears to say he will name scandal-plagued ex-president Fernando Collor to his cabinet to "confiscate retirees' pensions".

    In reality, Bolsonaro was talking about a rumor swirling online.

    PINK MENACE

    Bolsonaro warns ex-president Lula (2003-2010) wants to "impose communism" in Brazil, and often points to crises in other Latin American countries as examples of the dangers of left-wing rule.

    Amid signs of a new "pink tide" emerging in the region - with leftists now in power in Argentina, Chile and Colombia, among others - the disinformation campaign has cast a wide muckraking net.

    One viral post accuses Colombian President Gustavo Petro's leftist government of "authorising pedophilia", based on a measure that legalised marriage for minors older than 14.

    But the measure was adopted in 2021, under conservative ex-president Ivan Duque.

    "Starving locals attack poultry and pig farmers in Argentina," warns another apocalyptic message, accompanying a video of pillaging that allegedly occurred under leftist President Alberto Fernandez.

    In reality, the images came from the Colombian town of Puerto Tejada during protests last year against Duque's government.

    Videos from violent protests in Chile in 2019 under conservative ex-president Sebastian Pinera have likewise been misrepresented as happening under current President Gabriel Boric, who took office last March.

    FAKE POLLS

    Fake opinion polls showing one candidate with a large lead are another common tactic.

    Sometimes the supposed polls are completely fabricated. Other posts use editing software to change the figures in TV news reports.

    In fact, most real polls give Lula a small lead over Bolsonaro.

    "PROOF" OF FRAUD

    Multiple claims of fraud went viral after the first-round election on Oct 2, in which Lula took 48 per cent of the vote to 43 per cent for Bolsonaro.

    Lula supposedly won more votes than there were inhabitants in a list of cities that circulated widely. But the figures cited are incorrect, and some of the cities don't even exist.

    Other viral posts allege the vote count on election night followed an algorithm in which Lula gained one percentage point and Bolsonaro lost one-half for every 12 per cent of polling stations that reported results.

    But those numbers do not match actual figures.

    FAKE ARTICLES

    Other posts copy the look of established media to spread false news reports.

    The G1 news site operated by Globo, Brazil's biggest media group, is a frequent target.

    One screen capture of a supposed G1 article has Lula saying he will confiscate Brazilians' firearms if elected.

    Another quotes him as saying, "Even God can't stop me from winning this election."

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Well it is the Brazilian Baldy Orange Cunto, so lying is part of the SOP.

  21. #21
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over President Jair Bolsonaro has widened slightly to six percentage points less than a week ahead of a runoff vote, two polls showed on Wednesday.

    Both were conducted between Sunday and Tuesday, and the results could have been influenced by Sunday's incident in which Bolsonaro ally Roberto Jefferson shot at police as he resisted arrest. read more

    Lula would win 53% of the valid votes, up from last week's 52%, against 47% for Bolsonaro, who had 48% in the previous poll, a survey by PoderData said.

    A poll by Genial/Quaest found Lula widening his lead slightly to 48% of voter support, while Bolsonaro remains at 42%. Excluding blank or annulled votes and the undecided, Lula had 53% of the votes to Bolsonaro's 47%, the same numbers for valid votes as the PoderData poll showed.

    Genial/Quaest tried to estimate the impact of abstentions by making a "likely voter" adjustment for probable intentions: It showed Lula with 52.1% of valid votes against 47.9% for Bolsonaro, a narrower result than the 52.8% to 47.2% the model showed last week.

    Brazilians will vote in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday.

    Pollsters were widely criticized after the first-round vote for significantly underestimating support for Bolsonaro.

    PoderData interviewed 5,000 voters by telephone and the poll has a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points up or down.

    Pollster Genial/Quaest interviewed 2,000 people in person and its survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

    ___________




    Brazil’s presidential frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said he hopes his far-right rival, incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, will accept an election loss, as Brazilian voters prepare to head to the polls in less than a week.

    Lula said during a news conference in Sao Paulo on Monday that if he were to win the tightly fought contest, he hoped Bolsonaro “will have a moment of sanity and phone me to accept the election result”.

    “If Bolsonaro loses and he wants to cry … I lost three elections,” said Lula, who served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010. “Each time I lost, I went home. I didn’t keep cursing, being agitated.”

    Brazilians will go back to the polls on October 30, after a first round of voting on October 2 saw Lula beat Bolsonaro but fall short of what he needed to avoid a second round.

    For months, experts have raised concerns that Bolsonaro will not accept the results of what has been one of the most divisive elections in Brazil’s history.

    The former army captain has repeatedly said without evidence that the country’s electronic voting system is vulnerable to fraud — spurring fears that he plans to contest the outcome, similarly to former US President Donald Trump, whom he has emulated.

    Judicial experts have rejected Bolsonaro’s fraud claims as baseless.

    Recent polls show Lula with a lead over Bolsonaro ahead of Sunday’s second-round vote, but polling ahead of the first round underestimated support for Bolsonaro, fuelling backlash and distrust.

    A poll by IPEC on Monday showed Lula with 50 percent support compared with 43 percent for Bolsonaro, while another poll by AtlasIntel showed the left-wing former leader with 52 percent to Bolsonaro’s 46.2 percent.

    That is up from 51.1 percent for Lula and 46.5 percent for Bolsonaro, according to a previous AtlasIntel poll two weeks ago.

    The most recent poll was completed before a shooting incident on Sunday involving Bolsonaro supporter and former Congressman Roberto Jefferson, which had the president’s campaign worried about a negative effect on opinion polls, a senior aide said.

    The changes for both candidates were less than the margin of error of one percentage point, but with the election on Sunday, even a stable race at this point favours frontrunner Lula.

    “The poll is good news for Lula,” said AtlasIntel Chief Executive Andrei Roman.

    The botched arrest of Jefferson on order from the Supreme Court for insulting one of its justices highlighted rising political violence in the election.

    On Sunday, when federal police officers went to Jefferson’s house, he opened fire on their car and threw stun grenades. Two officers were injured.

    ____________




    When Brazil elected Jair Bolsonaro as its president four years ago, this journal was among those that feared the worst. “The election of Jair Bolsonaro is bad for research and the environment,” we wrote (Nature 563, 5–6; 2018).

    A populist and a former army captain, Bolsonaro charged into office denying science, threatening Indigenous peoples’ rights, promoting guns as a solution to security concerns and pushing a development-at-all-costs approach to the economy. Bolsonaro has been true to his word. His term in office has been disastrous for science, the environment, the people of Brazil — and the world.

    This weekend, Brazilians will go to the polls in the second round of one of the country’s most important elections since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. Bolsonaro is standing for re-election for the Liberal Party. His opponent is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party leader who was president for two terms between 2003 and 2010. In the first round of the election, held on 2 October, Lula beat Bolsonaro into second place, but by an unexpectedly narrow margin. He failed to win an overall majority, forcing the two into a run-off election.

    Bolsonaro’s record is eye-popping. Under his leadership, the environment has been ravaged as he rolled back legal protections and disparaged Indigenous peoples’ rights. In the Amazon alone, deforestation has nearly doubled since 2018, with yet another increase expected when Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research releases its latest deforestation data in the coming weeks.

    Like his populist former US counterpart Donald Trump, Bolsonaro ignored scientists’ warnings about COVID-19 and denied the dangers of the disease. Bolsonaro also undermined vaccine programmes, questioning the safety and effectiveness of the jabs. More than 685,000 people in Brazil have died from COVID-19. The economic crisis that followed the pandemic hit Brazilians hard.

    Other similarities have been drawn between Trump and Bolsonaro — both have sought to undermine the rule of law and slash the powers of regulators.

    Funding for science and innovation was waning when Bolsonaro took office, and has continued to fall under his leadership, to the point that many federal universities are struggling to keep the lights on and buildings open. Science and academia served as easy foils in an anti-elite offensive that mirrored the culture wars of the United States.

    This contrasts with the situation around a decade or so before he came to power, when the Workers’ Party made big investments in science and innovation, strong environmental protections were in place and educational opportunities were expanded. Furthermore, thanks in part to a massive cash-transfer system for the poor, called Bolsa Família, people on low incomes saw gains in wealth and opportunity.

    Brazil brandished its reputation as an environmental leader by ramping up environmental law enforcement and curbing deforestation in the Amazon by around 80% between 2004 and 2012. For a time, Brazil broke the link between deforestation and the production of commodities such as beef and soya beans, and it looked as if the country could pioneer its own brand of sustainable development. Much of that progress has since been undone.

    In contrast to Bolsonaro, Lula has not sought to fight researchers. He has pledged to achieve ‘net zero’ deforestation and protect Indigenous lands if elected. But Lula is not without baggage. He spent 19 months in jail as a result of a corruption investigation that implicated government officials, including Workers’ Party leaders. But in 2019, the Brazilian supreme court determined that Lula and others had been improperly imprisoned before their appeal options had been exhausted. Lula’s convictions were annulled in 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president again.

    No political leader comes close to anything like perfect. But Brazil’s past four years are a reminder of what happens when those we elect actively dismantle the institutions intended to reduce poverty, protect public health, boost science and knowledge, safeguard the environment and uphold justice and the integrity of evidence. Brazil’s voters have a valuable opportunity to start to rebuild what Bolsonaro has torn down. If Bolsonaro gets four more years, the damage could be irreparable.

  22. #22
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Brazil’s election explained: Lula and Bolsonaro face off for a second round in high stakes vote

    Brazil votes for a new president on Sunday, in the final round of a polarizing election that has been described as the most important in the country’s democratic history.

    The choice is between two starkly different candidates – the leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula, and the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro – while the country struggles with high inflation, limited growth and rising poverty.

    Rising anger has overshadowed the poll as both men have used their massive clout, on-and-offline, to attack each other at every turn. Clashes among their supporters have left many voters feeling fearful of what is yet to come.

    The race could be a close one. Neither gained over 50% in a first round vote earlier this month, forcing the two leading candidates into this Sunday’s run-off vote.

    The candidates

    Lula da Silva was president for two terms, from 2003 to 2006 and 2007 to 2011, where he led the country through a commodities boom that helped fund huge social welfare programs and lifted millions out of poverty.

    The charismatic politician is known for his dramatic backstory: He didn’t learn to read until he was 10, left school after fifth grade to work full-time, and went on to lead worker strikes which defied the military regime in 1970s. He co-founded the Workers’ Party (PT), that became Brazil’s main left-wing political force.

    Lula da Silva left office with a 90% approval rating – a record tarnished however by Brazil’s largest corruption probe, dubbed “Operation Car Wash,” which led to charges against hundreds of high-ranking politicians and businesspeople across Latin America. He was convicted for corruption and money laundering in 2017, but a court threw out his conviction in March 2021, clearing the way for his political rebound “in a plot twist worthy of one of the Brazilian beloved telenovelas,” Bruna Santos, a senior advisor at the Wilson Institute’s Brazil Center, told CNN.

    His rival, Bolsonaro, is a former army captain who was a federal deputy for 27 years. Bolsonaro was considered a marginal figure in politics during much of this time before emerging in the mid-2010s as the figurehead of a more radically right-wing movement, which perceived the PT as its main enemy.

    He ran for President in 2018 with the conservative Liberal Party, campaigning as a political outsider and anti-corruption candidate, and gaining the moniker ‘Trump of the Tropics.’ A divisive figure, Bolsonaro has become known for his bombastic statements and conservative agenda, which is supported by important evangelical leaders in the country.

    But poverty has grown during his time as President, and his popularity levels took a hit over his handling of the pandemic, which he dismissed as the “little flu,” before the virus killed more than 680,000 people in the country.

    Bolsonaro’s government has become known for its support of ruthless exploitation of land in the Amazon, leading to record deforestation figures. Environmentalists have warned that the future of the rainforest could be at stake in this election.

    What are their platforms?

    The race is a tight one for the two household names who espouse radically different paths to prosperity.

    Bolsonaro’s campaign is a continuation of his conservative, pro-business agenda. Bolsonaro has promised to increase mining, privatize public companies and generate more sustainable energy to bring down energy prices. But he has also has vowed to continue paying a R$600 (roughly US$110) monthly benefit for low-income households known as Auxilio Brasil, without clearly defining how it will be paid for.

    Bolsonaro accelerated those financial aid payments this month, a move seen by critics as politically motivated. “As the election loomed, his government has made direct payments to working-class and poor voters – in a classic populist move,” Santos told CNN.

    Bolsonaro’s socially conservative messaging, which includes railing against political correctness and promotion of traditional gender roles, has effectively rallied his base of Brazilian conservative voters, she also said.

    Lula da Silva’s policy agenda has been light on the details, focusing largely on promises to improve Brazilians fortunes based on past achievements, say analysts.

    He wants to put the state back at the heart of economic policy making and government spending, promising a new tax regime that will allow for higher public spending. He has vowed to end hunger in the country, which has returned during the Bolsonaro government. Lula da Silva also promises to work to reduce carbon emissions and deforestation in the Amazon.

    But Santos warns that he’ll face an uphill battle: “With a fragile fiscal scenario (in Brazil) and little power over the budget, it won’t be easy.”

    Lula da Silva faces a hostile congress if he becomes president. Congressional elections on October 3 gave Bolsonaro’s allies the most seats in both houses: Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party increased its seats to 99 in the lower house, and parties allied with him now control half the chamber, Reuters reports.

    “Lula seems to ignore the necessary search for new engines of growth because the state cannot grow more,” she said.

    What will happen on Election Day?

    A Datafolha poll released last Wednesday showed 49% of respondents said they would vote for Lula da Silva and 45% would go for Bolsonaro, who gained a percentage point from a poll by the same institute a week ago.

    But Bolsonaro fared better than expected in the October 2 first round vote, denying Lula da Silva the outright majority which polls had predicted. The incumbent’s outperformance of the polls in the first round suggests wider support for Bolsonaro’s populist brand of conservatism, and analysts expect the difference in Sunday’s vote to be much tighter than expected.

    There could be any number of other surprises. Fears of violence have haunted this election, with several violent and sometimes fatal clashes between Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva supporters recorded in recent months. From the start of this year until the first round of voting, the US non-profit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded “36 instances of political violence involving party representatives and supporters across the country,” that suggests “even greater tensions and polarization than recorded in the previous general elections.”

    Critics also fear Bolsonaro has been laying the groundwork to contest the election. Though he insists he will respect the results if they are “clean and transparent,” Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed that Brazil’s electronic ballot system is susceptible to fraud – an entirely unfounded allegation that has drawn comparisons to the false election claims of former US President Donald Trump. There is no record of fraud in Brazilian electronic ballots since they began in 1996, and experts are worried the rhetoric will lead to outbreaks of violence if Lula da Silva wins.

    “In this consequential election, the confidence we have in the strength of Brazilian democratic institutions is going to be challenged,” Santos said.

  23. #23
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Would be nice to see Bolsonaro defeated by at least 4.4 percentage points

    Trump hails Bolsonaro as 'great' leader, asks Brazilians to reelect him

    On Friday, former US president Donald Trump praised Jair Bolsonaro as a "great" leader and urged Brazilians to give him a second term in office.

    "VOTE for President JAIR BOLSONARO -- HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    "VOTE for President JAIR BOLSONARO -- HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
    Well there's a surprise.

  25. #25
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    It’ll be interesting to watch what happens after he loses. I don’t think it will go over well.

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