Lula may clinch Brazil election on Sunday

**S Landreth** · 29-10-2022, 04:31 PM

What to know about Brazil's crucial presidential election this weekend

What to know about Brazil's election as Bolsonaro faces Lula, with major world impacts

Brazilians head to the polls Sunday to vote in a crucial presidential election that is testing the world's fourth-largest democracy and could have a critical impact on the fight against climate change.

On the far right is current President Jair Bolsonaro, a brash Christian nationalist widely criticized for escalating destruction of the Amazon, mishandling Brazil's COVID-19 response and casting doubts on the country's electoral system.

He faces a tough fight from a former president and one of Latin America's most storied leftists, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, universally known as Lula. His lead in the polls has narrowed since winning the most votes in the first round four weeks back. Da Silva has to overcome voter skepticism after major corruption scandals tarnished his leftist Workers' Party and sent da Silva to jail for more than a year.

What are the polls saying?

Currently, all major polls have da Silva in the lead, but Bolsonaro has been gaining on him. In the election's first round on Oct. 2, former President da Silva captured 48% of the vote compared to incumbent Bolsonaro's 43% — a difference of nearly 6 million voters. The big story then was Bolsonaro's better-than-expected showing; most surveys had him trailing by double digits. Polling firms scrambled to understand why their numbers were so far off when it came to predicting Bolsonaro's support. Some lawmakers even called for pollsters to be charged with a crime if their forecasts don't match the election results.

On Monday, the IPEC polling firm had da Silva taking 50% of the vote and Bolsonaro 43%, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

What's at stake for Brazil

The two men have very different plans for the country. A Bolsonaro win would keep Brazil along the same conservative, pro-business path. The 67-year-old president insists he is the defender of family values, winning him support from a growing population of conservative evangelicals. He rejected lockdowns and mask mandates during the pandemic. And through executive orders, he not only loosened Brazil's gun laws but severely eliminated environmental protections in the Amazon. Researchers say protecting the world's largest rainforest is critical to safeguard Indigenous communities and diverse wildlife, while helping prevent the rise of carbon dioxide that causes climate change. Bolsonaro has promised more mining and agrobusiness expansion, as well as privatization of public energy companies, if reelected.

As president from 2003 through 2010, da Silva was able to finance, due to a commodity boom, programs for the poor that helped tens of millions of Brazilians climb out of poverty and earned him a large and loyal political base. Da Silva, a 77-year-old former union leader, has promised to once again help Brazil's most vulnerable citizens, without giving many specifics, as well as crack down on illegal deforestation and create a new Indigenous peoples' ministry. But many Brazilians still tie him to the wide corruption scandals that rocked his Workers' Party. The country's Supreme Court annulled Da Silva's prison conviction in 2021.

Brazil's electorate is highly polarized now after four years of Bolsonaro's presidency and hard-right rhetoric, says political scientist Guilherme Casarões. A recent survey says voters' top concerns include the economy, public health and corruption. Either candidate will have to wrestle with a weak economic outlook and a divided nation.

The campaign has been one of Brazil's dirtiest

Brazilians have been bombarded with negative ads and social media disinformation in the lead-up to the election. Supporters of Bolsonaro have been telling voters that if elected da Silva will close churches and turn Brazil into a communist nation à la Venezuela and Cuba. Bolsonaro has been fending off accusations of "pedophilia" and cannibalism, based on past statements from the current leader. Electoral authorities have tried to cut down on the noise, passing some of the most restrictive limits on campaign speech in decades. The country's top electoral court justices have imposed severe fines and time limits for removal of false online content. While many liberals applaud the officials' attempts to clamp down, conservatives have accused authorities of censorship.

Bolsonaro has frequently cast doubt about the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system. He recently stepped up criticism on the electoral court and its justices, accusing the head justice of bias. There's concern that Bolsonaro will contest the results, especially if the final tallies are as close as predicted.

When it's happening

Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday Brasília time (7 a.m.-4 p.m. ET). Results could come out as early as 9 p.m. in Brasília, thanks to the speed of the electronic voting system.

I miss Brazil

**sabang** · 30-10-2022, 07:45 AM

So do I. The place is infectious.

**S Landreth** · 30-10-2022, 10:27 AM

We had good box seats for the Carnival years ago. Next time, I would like to sit in the bleachers with the locals.......

18+ to view the video above
___________

Bolsonaro-Lula presidential race down to the wire in Brazil, polls show

Brazil's presidential race has drawn about even, a new poll showed on Saturday, a day before the tense runoff vote between right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro and his leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Lula has 51.1% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro has 48.9%, a difference that is equal to the margin of error of the MDA poll commissioned by the transport sector lobby CNT.

Most polls suggest Lula is the slight favorite to come back for a third term, capping a remarkable political return after his jailing on graft convictions that were overturned. But Bolsonaro outperformed opinion polls in the first-round vote on Oct. 2, and many analysts say the election could go either way.

The deeply polarizing figures attacked each other's character and record in a televised debate on Friday night. They accused each other of lying and refused repeatedly to answer each other's questions.

Bolsonaro opened the debate by denying reports that he might unpeg the minimum wage from inflation, announcing instead he would raise it to 1,400 reais ($260) a month if re-elected, a move that is not in his government's 2023 budget.

Still, with their campaigns focusing on swaying crucial undecided votes, analysts suggested that the president gained little ground in the debate to win a race that polls had shown roughly stable for weeks since Lula led the first-round voting by 5 percentage points.

Riding a wave of conservative voter sentiment, that result was better for Bolsonaro than most polls had shown, giving him a boost of momentum to start the month, but the past two weeks of the campaign have presented headwinds.

On Sunday, one of Bolsonaro's allies opened fire on federal police officers coming to arrest him. A week earlier Bolsonaro had to defend himself from attack ads after he told an anecdote about meeting Venezuelan migrant girls in suggestive terms.

In their first head-to-head debate this month, Lula blasted Bolsonaro's handling of a pandemic in which nearly 700,000 Brazilians have died, while Bolsonaro focused on the graft scandals that tarnished the reputation of Lula's Workers Party.

On Friday night, both candidates returned repeatedly to Lula's two terms as president from 2003 to 2010, when high commodity prices helped to boost the economy and combat poverty. Lula vowed to revive those boom times, while Bolsonaro suggested current social programs are more effective.

MDA was the most accurate of the major in-person pollsters in the first-round vote on Oct. 2, although all of them underestimated support for Bolsonaro.

Of the total votes, including blank votes and the undecided, Lula has 47% of voter support and Bolsonaro has 45%, up from 42% in the previous poll two weeks ago.

**S Landreth** · 30-10-2022, 07:24 PM

The election has started.

Globo Internacional might be the best TV station to watch (it’s not all politics). Results should be known by 9:00 am Thai time tomorrow

Link to Globo Internacional: Watch Globo Internacional Live TV from Brazil - Online TV channel

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Brazil election: Bolsonaro cuts Lula lead as presidential race goes down to wire

Brazilians have begun voting this morning in a polarizing presidential runoff election.

It’s just after 8am in the country, and members of the public have been seen queuing up to have their say. It is expected to be a close contest between President Jair Bolsonaro and his political nemesis, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

____________

Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting machines are prone to fraud

**harrybarracuda** · 30-10-2022, 08:57 PM

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting machines are prone to fraud

And he's going to go all in on election fraud if he loses.

**Takeovers** · 31-10-2022, 02:29 AM

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting machines are prone to fraud

Where have we heard this recently? Oh yes, the orange man.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 02:50 AM

^His nickname - Tropical Trump

Brazil Election Live Results - about 10 minutes from now

CNN Brazil

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 05:19 AM

Cutting it close - 91.42% of the votes are counted. Needs more than 50% to win.

**panama hat** · 31-10-2022, 05:30 AM

Hasn't changed, but what the heck . . . 5 1/2 million invalid votes . . . Bolso the fascist will pounce on that when he loses

**sabang** · 31-10-2022, 05:56 AM

H'mmm- some similarity with Thailand here. Lula has got the majority vote nationwide, but in the major power centres of Sao Paulo and Rio it's Bolsonaro. Paulistas feel much the same way about the north of the country as Bangkokians. Hicks. Trouble brewing? We'll see.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 06:12 AM

^Yes, hicks are and will always be a problem.

99.71% reporting. Lula has got this. Celebrations in the streets.

**sabang** · 31-10-2022, 06:15 AM

Hicks, rednecks, lefties, fascists. They all get an equal vote, no matter how you might choose to denigrate them.

**harrybarracuda** · 31-10-2022, 07:38 AM

Originally Posted by sabang

Hicks, rednecks, lefties, fascists. They all get an equal vote, no matter how you might choose to denigrate them.

What the fuck would you know about "equal votes" when you cheerlead the biggest pair of vote riggers on the planet?

Meanwhile:

Bolsonaro, 67, who for years has made baseless claims that Brazil's voting system is prone to fraud, remained silent initially about the result. Electoral authorities are bracing for him to dispute the outcome, sources told Reuters, and made security preparations in case his supporters stage protests.

**Hugh Cow** · 31-10-2022, 07:50 AM

Lula has won and the aftermath of Trumps mini me will be interesting. IMO Bolsanaro was bad for Brazil. Hopefully Lula will be better for the people and the rain forest.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 07:58 AM

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Lula has won and the aftermath of Trumps mini me will be interesting. IMO Bolsanaro was bad for Brazil. Hopefully Lula will be better for the people and the rain forest.

^Hick

Originally Posted by S Landreth

^Yes, hicks are and will always be a problem.

**harrybarracuda** · 31-10-2022, 08:39 AM

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Lula has won and the aftermath of Trumps mini me will be interesting. IMO Bolsanaro was bad for Brazil. Hopefully Lula will be better for the people and the rain forest.

As of now, Bolsonaro has neither conceded nor congratulated his opponent.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 08:53 AM

More well-wishes

Anthony Albanese Huge congratulations to @LulaOficial on a tremendous victory in the Brazilian elections. Look forward to working with you on protecting our global environment.: https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1586895774557777920

**bsnub** · 31-10-2022, 09:03 AM

So Trump lost again? Good news.

**harrybarracuda** · 31-10-2022, 10:17 AM

The French midget gets a dig in:

France's President Emmanuel Macron said Mr da Silva's win "opens a new page in the history of Brazil" and vowed the two nations would "renew the ties of friendship" and join forces to face "the many common challenges... between our two countries".

**pickel** · 31-10-2022, 10:34 AM

I can't view the second page of this thread for some reason.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 10:40 AM

Although it was officially called earlier........

With 100.00% of vote sections accounted for (472,075 of 472,075).

Results based on a total of 118,552,353 valid votes.

As of: Oct. 30, 2022, 11:18 PM EDT

**harrybarracuda** · 31-10-2022, 10:50 AM

Lula may clinch Brazil election on Sunday-fgwooqsxwaqxfbv-jpeg

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 10:57 AM

Latin American leaders congratulate Lula for winning Brazil's presidential election

Latin American leaders congratulated Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday for winning Brazil’s runoff presidential election after the Supreme Electoral Court called the race in his favor.

Lula, who was jailed on corruption charges that were annulled by the Supreme Court last year, beat incumbent far-right President Jair Bolsonaro with 50.9% of the vote in one of the country's most polarized elections in decades. Bolsonaro garnered 49.1%.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was one of the first Latin American leaders to congratulate the former union leader who served as president from 2003 to 2010.

“Lula won, blessed the people of Brazil. There will be equality and humanism,” Lopez Obrador said on his Twitter account.

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez also congratulated Lula, saying his “victory opens a new era for the history of Latin America.”

“A time of hope and future begins today. Here you have a partner to work and dream big for the good life of our peoples,” Fernandez said on social media.

From the capital Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro celebrated "the victory of the Brazilian people."

"Long live the people determined to be free, sovereign and independent! Today in Brazil, democracy triumphed," he said.

According to Bolivia's President Luis Arce, Lula’s victory will "strengthen democracy and Latin American integration.”

He said the incoming Brazilian president will lead the people "on the path of peace, progress and social justice.”

Colombia’s leftist President Gustavo Petro celebrated with “Long live Lula,” and Chile's head of state Gabriel Boric tweeted a photo of Lula’s hand touching the Brazilian flag with a message that said “Lula. Joy.”

Pedro Castillo, who was sworn in as Peru’s president in July 2021, said Lula's victory “is fundamental to strengthen the unity of Latin America.”

Brazil's new president joins a new wave of leftist leaders who have come to power in Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Honduras, a shift that promises to reshape the region's politics in the coming years.

**panama hat** · 31-10-2022, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Brazil's new president joins a new wave of leftist leaders

They need to stop this . . . Bolsonaro was so far to the right that Mussolini would have been a 'leftist' compared. If he starts talking about nationalising industry then they can go on about how much of a 'leftist' he is.

**S Landreth** · 31-10-2022, 11:45 AM

^He should be alright. He will be busy for some time to come......

Lula Promises to Unite a Divided Brazil, Seek Fair Global Trade

Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday promised to unite a divided country in a speech after defeating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff presidential vote.

Lula also invited international cooperation to preserve the Amazon rainforest and said he will seek fair global trade rather than trade deals that "condemn our country to be an eternal exporter of raw materials."

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