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  1. #401
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    A second wave of Russians is fleeing Putin’s regime

    For months now, Vladimir has been preparing paperwork and getting his affairs in order for a move to France.

    A visa application process that was once relatively easy is now dogged with complexity, but the 37-year-old is confident that getting his family and employees out of Russia will be worthwhile.

    “On the one hand, it’s comfortable to live in the country where you were born. But on the other, it’s about the safety of your family,” Vladimir told CNBC via video call from his office in Moscow.

    For Vladimir, the decision to leave the country he has called home all his life “was not made in one day.” Under President Vladimir Putin’s rule, he has watched what he called the “erosion of politics and freedom” in Russia over several years. But the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine was the final straw.

    “I think, in a year or two, everything will be so bad,” he said of his country.

    The Russian Embassy in London and Russia’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

    Russia’s ‘second wave’ of migration

    Vladimir, whose surname has been removed due to the sensitive nature of the situation, is part of what he considers Russia’s “second wave” of migration following the war.This includes those who took longer to prepare to leave the country — such as people with businesses or families who wanted to let their children finish the school year before leaving.

    Such flexibility was not afforded to everybody. When Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, alongside the millions of Ukrainians who were forced to flee their homes, life for some Russians became untenable overnight.

    A “first wave” of artists, journalists and others openly opposed to Putin’s regime felt they had to leave the country immediately or risk political persecution for violating the Kremlin’s clampdown on public dissent.

    “A lot of people got notices saying that they were traitors,” said Jeanne Batalova, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, noting the backlash suffered by some Russians — even from neighbors.

    But as the war rages on, more Russians are deciding to pack up and leave.

    “The way migration works is that once the flow begins and people start finding out how to do things — get a flat, apply for asylum, find a job or start a business — that prompts more people to leave. It becomes a self-fulfilling cycle,” Batalova said.

    An exodus in the hundreds of thousands

    There is no concrete data on the number of Russians who have left the country since the start of the war. However, one Russian economist put the total at 200,000 as of mid-March.

    That figure is likely to be far higher now, according to Batalova, as tens of thousands of Russians have relocated to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, the Baltic states and beyond.

    “If you look at the various destinations where people have gone, these numbers do ring true,” she said. And that’s not even counting Russia’s large overseas diaspora, many of whom are in Southeast Asia, who have chosen not to return home following the invasion. Batalova puts that figure at around 100,000.

    In the tech sector alone, an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 professionals left in the first month of the war, with a further 70,000 to 100,000 expected to follow soon thereafter, according to a Russian IT industry trade group.

    Some start-up founders like Vladimir, who runs a software service for restaurants, have decided to relocate their businesses and staff overseas, choosing countries with access to capital, such as France, the U.K, Spain and Cyprus. Vladimir is moving his wife and school-age child, as well as his team of four and their families, to Paris.

    They follow more mobile independent Russia tech workers who have already flocked to low-visa countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Turkey.

    Then, there’s a third group of tech workers at larger Russian IT companies who are leaving more out of obligation than choice.

    Mikhail Mizhinsky, founder of Relocode, a company that helps tech businesses relocate, said these people faced a particularly difficult situation.

    Many have received ultimatums from overseas customers who are ceasing doing business with Russia. For them, it’s a toss-up between low costs in Bulgaria, Russian influence in Serbia and tax benefits in Armenia, according to Mizhinsky.

    “Most of them don’t necessarily want to leave Russia, where their home is,” he said. “But, on the other hand, they have their clients who buy their IT outsourced products and services who demanded them to leave. Many got letters from clients who said they would terminate their contracts if they did not leave Russia.”

    The well-educated and the wealthy

    The tech sector is one among several professional services industries that have seen an exodus of talent from Russia’s larger cities, as people reject the war and worsening business conditions.

    Scott Antel, an international hospitality and franchise lawyer who spent almost two decades working in Moscow, has so far this year helped five friends relocate from Russia to Dubai, in several cases purchasing properties for them, sight unseen, to expedite the move.

    “You’re seeing a massive brain drain,” said Antel, whose departing friends span the legal and consulting professions, as well as hospitality and real estate. “The disruption for talented people is enormous and is going to be even more so.”

    “A lot of them feel that they’ve lost their country,” he continued. “Realistically, is this going to turn around in a couple of years? No.”

    And it’s not just professionals seeking out the stability of overseas markets like Dubai. Having remained politically neutral amid international sanctions, the emirate has emerged as a destination of choice for Russia’s uber rich, too, with many shifting their wealth into its luxury property market.

    Indeed, around 15,000 millionaires are expected to leave Russia this year, according to a June report from London-based citizenship-by-investment firm Henley & Partners, with Dubai ranking as the top location for the super rich.

    Wariness among host countries

    The ongoing second exodus comes amid reports that some of Russia’s earlier emigres have returned home, because of both family and business ties, as well as difficulties as a result of travel restrictions and banking sanctions.

    However, Batalova said she expects such returns to be short-lived.

    “My bet would be that the emigration from Russia will continue, and when people do go back it will be to sell possessions, homes, and then leave again,” she said.

    But questions remain over the reception some Russian emigres may receive in their host country, she said.

    “In this conflict, Russia is viewed as the aggressor, and that attitude is passed down onto the emigres. Even if they [Russian migrants] are against the system, the public sentiment can be transferred to the new arrivals,” Batalova said.

    Indeed, there is a very real fear among some host countries that an influx of Russian migrants could see them become a target for a future Russian invasion. Moscow has maintained that part of the justification for its so-called special military operation in Ukraine was the “liberation” of Donbas, an area of east Ukraine which is home to a significant number of ethnic Russians.

    According to Batalova, countries like Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states — all of which have suffered at the hands of Russian aggression in the past, and have existing concerns over their national security — are likely to be particularly anxious.

    “They don’t want Russia to come along later and try to protect Russians in those host countries as they did with the diaspora in Ukraine,” she noted.

    Still, Vladimir is undeterred. He is hopeful for a fresh start in his family’s search for a new home outside of Russia.

    “Regarding the negativity, I’m sure it’s not true for 100% for all people. In any country, and with any passport, people can understand one another,” he said.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/russ...migration.html

  2. #402
    Thailand Expat DrWilly's Avatar
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    “ You’re seeing a massive brain drain,” said Antel, whose departing friends span the legal and consulting professions, as well as hospitality and real estate. “The disruption for talented people is enormous and is going to be even more so.”

    No doubt such a brain drain plays into Putin’s hands leaving behind a more naive and pliable populous.

  3. #403
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    One wonders at the stupidity of some people. there are Russians that still do a "pilgrimage" to Stalins home, one of the worst murderers in history. In fairness to the Russians there are still people who believe Trump had the election stolen.
    Stupidity is Universal.

  4. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    I doubt that is true,
    You may wish to read the Russian/Lithuania agreement. Easy to find on the internet and posted here by me previously.

    You may become more confident or less so of your knowledge of this Russian SMO.

  5. #405

  6. #406
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    Your link seems to suggest that everyone would benefit if Russia packed up and went home. To Russia of course.

  7. #407
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    Your link seems to suggest that everyone would benefit if Russia packed up and went home. To Russia of course.
    Because of course that is the simple truth.

  8. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Certainly beats what he's done so far and kill off any intelligent opposition. He really is Russia's answer to Pol Pot. (same height as well)




    Did he actually post a factual link????
    antiwar.com ? I never checked. Seemed obvious but pointless, a bit like Sabang.

  9. #409
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    Collapse of German energy giant Uniper could bring down European energy sector

    As Russia turns off the taps on Europe’s gas supply, major importers are struggling to survive on limited supplies. Uniper, which once imported and stored massive volumes of Russian natural gas, is on the brink of collapse. If it falls, much like Lehman Brothers during the 2008 recession, it may bring others with it, according to Belgian broadcaster RTBF.

    Uniper has struggled to survive the European energy crisis, as much of its business is reliant upon Russian energy import . Before the introduction of sanctions, the Düsseldorf-based company was one of Europe’s largest importers of Russian gas.

    The company now says that it is in emergency talks with banks and the German government to ensure its financial stabilisation. The company has also drawn from 2 billion from an “existing credit facility” in order to stay afloat.

    FULL- The Brussels Times

  10. #410
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    Ukraine Seeks Debt Freeze as War Ravages Economy

    KYIV/LONDON (Reuters) - Ukraine has asked its international creditors, including Western powers and the world's largest investment firms, to freeze its debt payments for two years so it can focus its dwindling financial resources on repelling Russia.

    Facing an estimated 35% to 45% crash in GDP this year following Moscow's invasion in February, Ukraine's finance ministry said on Wednesday it was hoping to finalise the deferral on its roughly $20 billion of debt by Aug. 9.

    The delay, which was quickly backed by both the major Western governments and heavyweight funds that have lent to Kyiv, would come just in time to put off around $1.2 billion of debt payments due at the start of September.

    The government's proposal, posted on its website, said all its bond interest payments would be deferred under the plan, although to avoid what would be classed as a hard default it also offered lenders additional interest payments once the freeze ends.

    FULL- Ukraine Seeks Debt Freeze as War Ravages Economy

    Hey Sri Lanka- now there's a thought.


  11. #411
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Yes except Sri Lanka has been invaded by the chinky loan sharks.

  12. #412
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    An image of one of the Russian gas pipe turbines, still not delivered, and a link to an article, in Russian, on the subject.

    Economic sanctions-20180821_gaf_ic10_093_0-jpg


    Caught under the stream: gas can rise in price to $ 2200 against the background of the repair of SP-1

    How Europe will try to replace supplies from the Russian Federation and what will come of it

    July 10, 2022

    Valery Voronov
    Irina Kezik
    Ekaterina Postnikova
    Vladislav Zuevsky

    Попали под поток: газ может подорожать до $2200 на фоне ремонта СП-1 | Статьи | Известия

    English translation here, for those without a translator app:

    https://newswep.com/news/caught-under-the-stream-gas-can-rise-in-price-to-2200-against-the-background-of-the-repair-of-sp-1/


    And pricing:

    Economic sanctions-ng-price-july-2022-jpg


    "European Union Natural Gas Import Price is at a current level of 34.35, up from 29.85 last month and up from 10.30 one year ago. This is a change of 15.09% from last month and 233.5% from one year ago."

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price
    Last edited by OhOh; 22-07-2022 at 02:30 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  13. #413
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Yes hoohoo we know Puffy is trying to blackmail the world into giving him half of Ukraine.

    And we know you are the snivelling sycophant that would be happy for the war criminal to get away with it.

  14. #414
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    22 Jul, 2022 13:48

    Home
    Business News

    Russia slashes key interest rate

    The Central Bank cited a further inflation slowdown in making the move.

    "The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key interest rate on Friday from 9.5% to 8.0%, citing a further slowdown in annual inflation and subdued consumer demand. The cut was bigger than predicted by any of the Bloomberg-surveyed economists.According to the bank’s statement, the decline in business activity has proven slower than had been expected in June.

    “However, the external environment for the Russian economy remains challenging and continues to significantly constrain economic activity,” CBR said.

    It also indicated that further rate reductions may follow in the second half of the year.

    The CBR more than doubled rates in February, from 9.5% to 20%, after Russia was hit with an avalanche of sanctions from the US, EU, UK and other countries. The emergency hike was intended to prop up the ruble, which had fallen to record lows.

    The Russian currency has since recovered to multi-year highs."


    Russia slashes key interest rate — RT Business News

  15. #415
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    The EU announces a 7th round of sanctions or the more obvious "clarification" of previously announce sanctions.

    Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: EU adopts “maintenance and alignment” package


    • Council of the EU
    • Press release
    • 21 July 2022
    • 13:05


    "The EU is also introducing a number of clarifications to existing measures, for instance in the field of public procurement, aviation and justice. For instance, the prohibition to enter into any transactions with Russian public entities will be slightly amended to ensure access to justice. With a view to avoid any potential negative consequences for food and energy security around the world, the EU decided to extend the exemption from the prohibition to engage in transactions with certain state-owned entities as regards transactions for agricultural products and the transport of oil to third countries.

    More broadly, the EU is committed to avoiding all measures which might lead to food insecurity around the globe. None of the measures adopted today or earlier in view of Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine target in any way the trade in agricultural and food products, including wheat and fertilisers, between third countries and Russia.

    Similarly, EU measures do not prevent third countries and their nationals operating outside of the EU from purchasing pharmaceutical or medical products from Russia.

    In addition to economic sanctions, the Council decided to list additional individuals and entities and strengthen reporting requirements, putting the burden of declaring assets onto sanctioned people, in order to facilitate the freezing of their assets in the EU."

    Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: EU adopts “maintenance and alignment” package - Consilium

    Step by step, the EU walks back it's actual and inferred sanctioning on Russia. Whether NaGAstan hold the same "clarifications" status has not been disclosed.

    Some may suggest the EU has again buckled in their sanctions, once again.

    Economic sanctions-putin-lavrove-jpg
    Last edited by OhOh; 24-07-2022 at 01:45 PM.

  16. #416
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Hoohoo cheering a "win" for the war criminal.

    What a low life.

  17. #417
    Thailand Expat DrWilly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Hoohoo cheering a "win" for the war criminal.

    What a low life.

    As per normal.

  18. #418
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    A lot more than $7.6bn I wager. Wonder how many schools, hospitals etc that could have bought ��

  19. #419
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    A lot more than $7.6bn I wager. Wonder how many schools, hospitals etc that could have bought ��
    How about replacing the ones Putin has bombed?

  20. #420
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    UK sanctions its own citizen for video blogging and thought crimes.


  21. #421
    Thailand Expat DrWilly's Avatar
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    Got a source for that meme Skiddy?

  22. #422
    Thailand Expat Backspin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrWilly View Post
    Got a source for that meme Skiddy?
    That's a screen grab of the sanctions

  23. #423
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    It's true-

    UK sanctions British blogger over videos from Ukraine



    The UK government has sanctioned a British blogger over content that it says "destabilizes" Ukraine, according to the British Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.

    Blogger Graham Phillips was added to the UK sanctions list on Monday, according to the Foreign Office. He is the only British national sanctioned in relation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to public records.

    Philips has appealed the decision, describing it as "absolutely absurd, dangerous, ridiculous."

    The British Foreign Office says Philips' work constitutes "media content that supports and promotes actions and policies which destabilize Ukraine and undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty, or independence of Ukraine."

    In a video posted on YouTube on April 19, Phillips questions captured British national Aiden Aslin, who had been fighting with Ukrainian forces in Mariupol. On camera, Aslin says he is not speaking under duress but is handcuffed during the video.

    YouTube removed the video. At the time of writing, parent company Google had not provided a statement to CNN on the removal of the video.
    On April 20, British MP Robert Jenrick, who represents Aslin's constituency in the UK, criticized the video in Parliament as a "flagrant breach of the Geneva conventions."

    UK sanctions British blogger over videos from Ukraine - CNN

    Astonishing. This should be in the Brave New World thread.

  24. #424
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    In a significant example of growing Eurasian integration, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran, signed a $40 billion energy cooperation agreement, and pledged to strengthen their economic and military alliance with China. Moscow and Tehran also called to drop the US dollar and use local currencies for trade.


    <font size="4"><span style="font-family: Merriweather; font-size: 15px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">

  25. #425
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Looks like even his chinky "pals" don't want to touch puffy with a shitty stick either.

    China has not funded any new infrastructure projects in Russia for months as Beijing focuses its attention on preventing a financial crisis at home.
    Financing and investment through the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) fell to $28.4bn (£23.6bn) over the first half of 2022, down from $29.4bn during the same period last year, according to a study by the Green Finance & Development Center at Shanghai’s Fudan University.
    No money went to new projects in Russia, Sri Lanka or Egypt, all of which had previously been key beneficiaries of Chinese spending. The lack of engagement with Russia suggests Chinese businesses may be afraid of falling victim to secondary sanctions introduced against Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine, and comes despite the pair insisting that their friendship had "no limits" shortly before the war began.
    Blow for Putin as China abandons investment in Russia

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