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Are you another idiot Hugh? I don't think sensible people will believe you or snubby over the Economic editor of the Guardian, the Russian balance of payments, or the soaring ruble. You just want to be cosseted with what you want to hear, but I am here to tell you different. :) Diddums
He doesnt understand that sanctions are the long game. Russia has propped up the rouble by using interest rates the central bank buying and preventing capital outflows. BOP are distorted by restricting imports. The central bank with sanctioned freezes will run out of money to support the rouble. Meanwhile Russian GDP is expected to drop by over 11% in 2022. An oil exporting country of 145 million (and falling) has a GDP little better than Australia with about 26 million people.Quote:
Originally Posted by bsnub
There are only 6.5 million Russians aged 20 to 24. The high toll of deaths and casualties on this group in Ukraine will be felt economically and socially for years to come. This number doesnt include the brain drain.
The Ukrainians have destroyed at least two years worth of Russian tank and military vehicle production and that is increasing. It will be increasingly difficult for Russia to catch up as it tries to replace tanks and other military vehicles destroyed in the war, especially with the electronics embargo. The economic outlook for employment and GDP is bleak and will effect Russia for years to come. While the west hasnt escaped unscathed its diverse economy and sheer size will see it recover much more quickly.
Perhaps you should identify the graph you are referring to. Then we may both reply with common knowledge.Quote:
Originally Posted by pickel
Strange how they were the short game before, that would bring the Russian economy crumbling to it's knees. :)
Right now, Russia has a record trade surplus, and a slight ploblem with the soaring ruble. So solly. The sanctions are not working, unless you are European and masochist.
11 Jun, 2022 13:22 HomeBusiness News
US fuel prices surge past record mark
The cost of gasoline has set a new all-time high as the US summer driving season is now in full swing
"US gasoline prices averaged more than $5 per gallon on Saturday, setting a new all-time high, data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows.According to the non-profit AAA, which tracks prices at more than 60,000 gas stations across the country, the national average price for regular unleaded gas rose to $5.004 per gallon on June 11 from $4.986 the day before. The highest prices have traditionally been recorded in the state of California, at up to $6.43 per gallon, and the lowest in Georgia, at $4.46 per gallon.
Data shows that US fuel prices have now more than doubled since US President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, when a gallon of gasoline cost only $2.39 on average."
US fuel prices surge past record mark — RT Business New
11 Jun, 2022 07:26 HomeBusiness News
Gasoline prices in Netherlands hit all-time high
Cost at the pump has soared to €2.55 per liter, data shows
"Prices at the pump in the Netherlands have soared to record highs, driven by the growing cost of oil, according to data by Dutch consumer group UnitedConsumers.
The retail price for a liter of gasoline is currently at €2.50, data showed. It was reaching €2.505 per liter at the pump. The cost of gasoline rose by 0.2 cents per liter, compared with that recorded on March 10. The price of diesel has also increased, to €2.22 per liter on average.
Higher fuel prices have been attributed to the rising price of oil, with Brent crude hitting $122 a barrel on Friday."
https://www.rt.com/business/556805-gasoline-prices-soar-netherlands/
11 Jun, 2022 08:21
HomeBusiness News
Germans warned of ‘difficult autumn’ and ‘tough winter’
Energy bills are expected to soar in the next heating season, the vice chancellor says
"Germans should brace for a difficult autumn and winter due to skyrocketing prices, as the country pushes for independence from Russian energy, the Vice Chancellor, and head of the Ministry of Economy, Robert Habeck warned on Friday.“As for the support of the people who need it, I clearly indicated what is ahead of us and what is already partially a reality... we are facing a very difficult autumn and a very tough winter,” he said, as cited by RIA Novosti.
Habeck made the prediction as he presented a new energy saving initiative of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK). Berlin is planning to replace Russian coal and oil by the end of the year and stop importing Russian gas by 2024, and is struggling to find alternative energy sources. According to the vice chancellor, energy prices are already extremely high and “many people will get significantly higher bills than usual” in the upcoming heating season.
“For this reason alone, saving energy is urgently needed, and I know that many are already looking at where they can save something, especially when they have to watch every cent anyway,” he said."
https://www.rt.com/business/556975-g...eason-warning/
11 Jun, 2022 18:35 HomeWorld News
1 in 6 Germans skipping meals to save money – poll
Another 13% fear having to endure occasional hunger as the cost of food increases, the survey found
"Nearly one in six Germans have been forced to skip meals regularly in order to make ends meet, according to a poll conducted earlier this week by the Institute for New Social Answers and published on Friday by the newspaper Bild. Another 13% say they fear such a situation if the increase in food prices continues.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the hardest hit among poll respondents were low-income households – those with monthly incomes of less than €1,000 ($1,052) – 32% of which have been regularly forced to skip meals for financial reasons."
https://www.rt.com/news/557009-germa...nergy-embargo/
When I'm the next poster after you post it, it should be obvious. Unless you're a disingenuous wanker, I suppose.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
You noticed?Quote:
Originally Posted by pickel
Excellent post and all true. Well said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Cow
You are the only one saying that, you blabbering idiot.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
That is because imports have collapsed and the only thing they export is oil. It is not something to brag about.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Stop screaming at the mirror, people already think you're a fucking weirdo.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Indeed, we do.Quote:
Originally Posted by harrybarracuda
:chitown:
Nearly 1,000 Western companies plan to leave the country or cut back operations, with more write-downs expected
Global companies have racked up more than $59 billion in losses from their Russian operations, with more financial pain to come as sanctions hit the economy and sales and shutdowns continue, according to a review of public statements and securities filings.
Almost 1,000 Western businesses have pledged to exit or cut back operations in Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine, according to Yale researchers.
Many are reassessing the reported value of those Russian businesses, as a weakening local economy and a lack of willing buyers render once-valuable assets worthless. Companies under U.S. and international reporting standards have to take impairment charges, or write-downs, when the value of an asset declines.
The write-downs to date span a range of industries, from banks and brewers to manufacturers, retailers, restaurants and shipping companies—even a wind-turbine maker and a forestry firm. The fast-food giant McDonald’s Corp. expects to record an accounting charge of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion after agreeing to sell its Russian restaurants to a local licensee; Exxon Mobil Corp. took a $3.4 billion charge after halting operations at an oil and gas project in Russia’s Far East; Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev SA took a $1.1 billion charge after deciding to sell its stake in a Russian joint venture.
“This round of impairments is not the end of it,” said Carla Nunes, a managing director at the risk-consulting firm Kroll LLC. “As the crisis continues, we could see more financial fallout, including indirect impact from the conflict.”
The financial fallout of the conflict isn’t significant for most multinationals, in part because of the relatively small size of the Russian economy. Fewer than 50 companies account for most of the $59 billion tally. Even for those, the Russian losses are typically a relatively small part of their overall finances. McDonald’s, for example, said its Russia and Ukraine businesses represented less than 3% of its operating income last year.
Some companies are writing off assets stranded in Russia. The Irish aircraft leasing company AerCap Holdings NV last month took an accounting charge of $2.7 billion, which included writing off the value of more than 100 of its planes that are stuck in the country. The aircraft were leased to Russian airlines. Other leasing companies are taking similar hits.
Other businesses are assuming that they will realize no money from their Russian operations, even before they have finalized exit plans. The British oil major BP PLC’s $25.5 billion accounting charge on its Russian holdings last month included writing off $13.5 billion of shares in the oil producer Rosneft. The company hasn’t said how or when it plans to divest its Russian assets.
Even some companies that are retaining a presence in Russia are writing down assets. The French energy giant TotalEnergies SE took a $4.1 billion charge in April on the value of its natural-gas reserves, citing the impact of Western sanctions targeting Russia.
The Securities and Exchange Commission last month told companies that they have to disclose Russian-related losses clearly, and that they shouldn’t adjust revenue to add back the estimated income that has been lost because of Russia.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. , which in March said it had stopped new banking business in Russia, appeared to breach this guidance when it reported its results for the first three months of this year. The New York custody bank in April reported $4 billion in revenue under one measure that included $88 million added to reflect income lost because of Russia.
Even some companies that are retaining a presence in Russia are writing down assets. The French energy giant TotalEnergies SE took a $4.1 billion charge in April on the value of its natural-gas reserves, citing the impact of Western sanctions targeting Russia.
The Securities and Exchange Commission last month told companies that they have to disclose Russian-related losses clearly, and that they shouldn’t adjust revenue to add back the estimated income that has been lost because of Russia.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. , which in March said it had stopped new banking business in Russia, appeared to breach this guidance when it reported its results for the first three months of this year. The New York custody bank in April reported $4 billion in revenue under one measure that included $88 million added to reflect income lost because of Russia.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/business-losses-from-russia-top-59-billion-as-sanctions-hit-11654853400
Vladimir Putin may be facing difficulties during the special operation in Ukraine, but he is not losing the economic war at all. According to The Spectator, this is due to the fact that sanctions and restrictions against Russia are not working decisively, at least in the way the West hoped.
https://europerenaissance.files.word...thin.jpg?w=683
Three months after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions, The Spectator states: that the restrictions are definitely not working, at least in the way the West expected. Russia’s current account surplus jumped to a record high of $96 billion, four times more than in the same period in 2021.
The final balance of operations with goods and services shows an even more serious gap, $106 billion, which is three times more than last year. And the amount of additional funds that Russia received almost reached $300 billion, the sum of the assets of the Russian Central Bank and foreign exchange reserves, which the West froze after the start of the special operation.
Whereas the people of the West are suffering record-high inflation, soaring costs and shortages leaving tens of millions impoverished, Russia is increasing pensions and channelling vast resources into bringing the standard of living up for the Russian people.
https://europerenaissance.com/2022/05/26/the-spectator-economic-blockade-of-russia-is-a-colossal-failure/
This one is kinda old, so I'll just link it-
Why did the Western sanctions on Russia fail? - TFIGlobal
Geddit? The sanctions are not working. More worryingly, they are rebounding and having a dire effect on European economies, in particular.
Russia says it has slowed inflation and kept unemployment steady despite the West's sanctions. 2 experts break down Putin's spin on the numbers.
- Russia's inflation rate slowed to 0.1% on-month in May while prices fell for the week ending June 3.
- From January to April, the country's unemployment held steady at around 4%.
- Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia's economy is showing resilience due to active management.
At a regular meeting with his government on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin reported a series of positive economic developments.
Unemployment, Putin said, is at the "lowest historical level in Russia in April and May," according to an official transcript from the Kremlin, and "inflation is zero now."
"The number of jobless, far from increasing, even decreased a little," the Russian leader added, calling it "a very serious achievement."
The developments come more than three months after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. The country is facing hard-hitting international sanctions and boycotts — but Putin's statements indicate Russia's economy continues to hold up. Inflation has slowed, and unemployment remains steady at around 4%, according to Rosstat, Russia's government statistics bureau.
However, a foreign affairs analyst told Insider it's possible the statistics have been manipulated.
"The Russian government obviously has an incentive to try to hide the economic impact of Western sanctions," said Andrew Lohsen, a fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "So if there was a way to creatively account for joblessness and try to hide the true impact of unemployment, then I think that's something that the Russian government will absolutely resort to. It makes perfect sense," he said.
Some economists are already painting a less optimistic picture of Russia's economy. In May, Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) trade group, tweeted that "Russia's economy is imploding." It's expecting to see a GDP collapse of 30% by the end of 2022.
For now, Russia has managed to prop up its economy. It's expected to rake in more money from oil and sales gas in 2022 than it did last year, thanks to soaring energy prices, according to Bloomberg Economics. At the same time, it's enacting a series of policy moves to soften the blow of sanctions for its populace by taming inflation and preserving jobs.
Here's how Russia has managed to put the brakes on inflation and stave off massive unemployment so far.
'Financial repression' is propping the ruble up — and capping consumer prices
Russia's inflation rate soared after it invaded Ukraine, rising 17.1% on-year in May, according to Rosstat. But while weekly price increases peaked in early March, they have been slowing ever since. Prices were lower on-week for the week ending June 3, per Rosstat.
In statement on June 2, Russia's central bank attributed slowing inflation primarily to a stronger ruble. The Russian currency is the world's best-performing currency, gaining about 30% against the US dollar this year.
Moscow has managed to prop up the ruble through a slate of capital control measures, including ordering companies to convert up to 80% of their foreign currency earnings into rubles. The energy powerhouse has also managed to compel Western European companies, such as German energy giant Uniper and Italy's Eni, to open special accounts to pay for their Russian natural gas imports in rubles — or risk their fuel getting cut off. The moves generate demand for Russian rubles and support its value, keeping inflation in check.
A drop in exports also helped to support the ruble as importers now have less demand for foreign currencies, the Russian central bank wrote in a May report, as reported by Interfax.
"I would say that the trading price of ruble is not the best indicator of the health of the Russian economy, but more for the average Russian person who gets paid in rubles and spends in rubles," Lohsen told Insider.
Instead, it's more a reflection of how much the Russian economy has changed since the invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping sanctions.
"The reality is: That foreign exchange rate that you see reflects a lot of financial repression," Hassan Malik, a senior sovereign analyst at Boston-based investment management consultancy Loomis Sayles, told Insider. He was referring to a phenomenon where government policies are implemented to achieve certain economic outcomes, but at the cost of hindering the proper functioning of capital markets.
"The capital flow regime that operates in Russia today is totally different from what was operating in the beginning of February, prior to the invasion and prior to the sanctions," he added.
The Kremlin has devised programs to preserve jobs
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, international companies have been leaving the market in droves — but data from Rosstat shows employment holding steady around 4%.
That's mainly because the exodus has been orderly and "translating boardroom decisions into on-the-ground action takes time," Malik said. That's exactly what IBM, for one, did: In a memo to staff on May 30, IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna announced an "orderly wind-down" of business in Russia.
"I attribute the persistence of relatively low levels of unemployment to labor-hoarding amongst state-influenced sectors, including by SOEs but also by foreign firms looking to engage in an orderly wind-down of their Russian operations," Malik said, referring to state-owned enterprises. The practice of "labor-hoarding" involves retaining more workers than a business needs rather than laying them off.
The Russian government has also been trying to preserve employment through implicit pressure on employers — a tactic Putin's regime has been using through the years, said Malik. This has contributed to a flurry of deals involving foreign companies selling their business and stakes in their Russian operations to local buyers who would continue running them under a different brand.
In May, for example, McDonald's sold its business in the country to a local licensee. The deal requires that the buyer continue employing and paying all of McDonald's staff in Russia for two years after the takeover, according to a McDonalds statement.
"Putin's stress on the headline unemployment rate in his recent Kremlin meeting with officials being low suggests to me that the strategy is to keep informal pressure on large employers to retain staff," said Malik.
The clock is still ticking for Russia
Even so, Russia may eventually run out of time when the commodities rally stall and as sanctions gnaw their way through the economy.
Elina Ribakova, the deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, told Grid News that "within this year, we will see the effect on Russian economy as companies start to run out of parts or equipment and have to start laying people off or putting them on unpaid leave."
Russia's economy is expected to shrink 8.5% in 2022, with a further decline of 2.3% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund projected in an April report. That would be the economy's largest decline since the years following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-s...120000198.html
The important bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
The hoped for bit. But it doesn't actually look to me that Russian GDP will shrink by 8.5% in 2022 anyway- those figures are dated, when the ruble was plunging, and have not been revised. In contrast, Ukrainian GDP will drop by +40%. Europe is suffering too, and-
Mainstream Media Acknowledges Biden's "Arrogant" Sanctions On Russia Are Damning Americans
The sanctions are just plain not working, they are backfiring.
Of course it ruddy will, the Russians are bombing it into rubble!Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Did you not look at the the reasons for the trade surplus? They are mostly due to sanctions preventing russia importing product from the west and a surge in oil/gas prices that will go down slower than they should due to the E.U. over reliance. A belief that trade would moderate Russian ambition despite all the warnings, an obvious policy failure which to their credit they are now trying to rectify. Russia is overly reliant on oil/gas exports and sanctions will seriously inhibit exports substitution over the long term. I dont know where you get sanctions are a short term game. There is always a lead lag in economies and sanctions take a time to bite as they surely will. Russia is hoping for a reduced victory annexing the whole region to justify the war and coming to a deal with Ukraine which will lead to a canceling or at least a big reduction in sanctions. If the west holds the sanctions Russia will be reduced to an economic backwater with a severely weakened military. It is already becoming a diplomatic backwater with value only to dictatorships and very little influence in the developed world, where the big decisions are made, far from a well respected economically strong world military power it could have been. In short the architect of its own decline into much less significence and influence.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
What is your point other than stating the obvious on fuel prices? I rarely read your propaganda posts but the upside on higher fuel prices is it will accelerate the take up of hybrid and electric cars and transport and will accelerate the decline in use of fossil fuels.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Your own beloved China will beat its chest and do little else as it is well aware of its rise has been achieved by trade with the west which as a whole dwarfs chinas GDP, including BRICS who themselves are dependent on western trade.
No matter how you beat your chest about China, without the west it would still be an overpopulated poverty ridden backwater. Your lack of knowlege of the world economy and who pulls the strings is quite staggering but understandable with a blinkered mind devoid of any ability to use critical thinking. The strength of the west is it is an economically diverse group that will overall be less damaged by economic shocks compared to single countries as Russia will find out over the next 5 years.
Decent post Hughie, but no Russia will not become a third world backwater if Western sanctions continue. We no longer possess a virtual monopoly on advanced technology and manufacturing you see. And the West is a declining share of world GDP anyway. That's a fact. It was Russia that announced it now looks East you know, then slammed the door on Europe and the Petrodollar- pay in rubles, or ferk off. Boohoo, they don't want to know us any more.
The sanctions have really only served to display our declining hegemony, and importance, to the Rest of the World.
Everything will be fine once puffy dies.
Both are already underway as we speak.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Cow
I doubt that actually. You think that when pooty snuffs it, all of a sudden a Russian leader will come to the fore who is totally subservient to the West? Nice dream.
So another one of your shit predictions then?Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
:chitown:
It's obvious why cattle like you will forever be junior.