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  1. #901
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    The Russian economy has risen sharply in the eyes of the West

    1.02.2023

    The International Monetary Fund unexpectedly singled out Russia in its forecast for 2023. And singled out in a good sense of the word. Instead of falling Russian GDP, they are now waiting for its growth this year. While the forecasts for the US and the EU, on the contrary, were worsened. What made the IMF economists change their mind and sharply improve the forecast for the Russian economy?

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday improved its forecast for the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2023 - instead of falling by 2.3%, it is expected to grow by 0.3%, and in 2024 the fund expects growth to accelerate to 2.1%.

    “The estimates of IMF experts are beginning to converge with Russian forecasts. Indeed, the Russian economy is confidently overcoming the sanctions barriers of unfriendly countries. In 2023, further economic recovery will depend on the recovery of consumer demand, as well as measures to ensure the growth of lending: both corporate and consumer,” the Ministry of Economic Development said in a comment.

    The IMF also improved the estimate of China's GDP growth in 2023 - from 4.4% to 5.2%. On the other hand, it worsened the forecasts for the US and the EU. The IMF expects US GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2023 from 2.1% in 2022. Growth in the euro area will almost come to a halt at 0.7% after growing by 3.5% in 2022.

    What is the basis for such a positive IMF forecast for the Russian economy? Why did the Western fund wait for the fall of our economy before, and now for growth? What did Western economists see in the Russian economy that they dramatically changed their forecast?

    “The IMF report reflects the improvement in expectations for the cost of oil this year, including for Russian grades. The possibility of Russia to replace export deliveries to "friendly" countries is noted. The forecast also takes into account that Russia will continue to produce oil in current volumes and sell it to the East, taking into account current discounts of $25-30 to Brent. The IMF does not disclose the rest of the logic of the forecast, but it can be assumed that the second half of 2023 will be able to compensate for the pressure of the first and second quarters. In many respects, this may be due to the recovery of demand from China and the development of mechanisms to minimize the damage from the Western restrictions on raw materials,” says Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

    “The current level of cap on oil prices set by the G7 countries is not expected to have a significant impact on the volume of Russian oil exports, as trade continues to be redirected from countries subject to sanctions to countries not subject to sanctions,” - said the IMF. The country is also helped by fiscal stimulus measures.

    “The IMF saw the real performance of Russian exports, which remained at a high level, despite the imposed sanctions and the oil price ceiling. That is, with its forecast, the international organization confirmed what was clear before: the restrictions imposed by the collective West against Russia do not work as expected.

    Российская экономика резко поднялась в глазах Запада

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Certainly buying at way less than the suicidal EU is.



    Putin beats West's economic blitzkrieg, Russia doing ‘better than expected’

    World News
    Published on Jan 15, 2023 11:05 PM IST
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    Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian economy is in better shape than expected. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Russia 1 TV channel on Sunday that all the major economic indicators point to further stabilisation of the country's economy. He flaunted the Russian economy's performance as he mocked the 'opponents' bid to crush it with sanctions. Putin said that inflation is expected to slow from the current 11.9% to around 5% in the first quarter of 2023.

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/putin-beats-west-s-economic-blitzkrieg-russian-economy-doing-much-better-than-expected-101673804038475.html

    Maybe you could elaborate how the E.U. not buying oil from Russia to prevent them turning profits into military hardware and killing european people is suicidal. The spin on your answer must be one for the ages.

  3. #903
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    The suicidal bit is that they are paying way more for their energy supplies as a result- and Russia is just selling it's gas to other nations instead. This hits the consumer, obviously, but is also a significant blow for European industry. As per the IMF forecasts-
    The IMF also improved the estimate of China's GDP growth in 2023 - from 4.4% to 5.2%. On the other hand, it worsened the forecasts for the US and the EU. The IMF expects US GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2023 from 2.1% in 2022. Growth in the euro area will almost come to a halt at 0.7% after growing by 3.5% in 2022.

  4. #904
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    The wanketeers are doing their best to spin that quote from the IMF when they really don't understand what it means.

    But since they like Bloomberg, I'll just leave this here:

    Russia’s War Will Destroy Its Energy Market, Maybe Forever

  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    The suicidal bit is that they are paying way more for their energy supplies as a result- and Russia is just selling it's gas to other nations instead.
    European natural gas prices are currently lower than they were right before the invasion.


    Natural gas prices in Europe were around €58/MWh to kick off February, holding close to levels not seen since September of 2021
    EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote

  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    European natural gas prices are currently lower than they were right before the invasion.
    Sabang sees it differently in his imaginary world.


  7. #907
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    Not my writing- but the IMF, headquartered in Washington DC, is certainly perceived as a western institution.

  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Not my writing- but the IMF, headquartered in Washington DC, is certainly perceived as a western institution.
    And you keep misinterpreting what they said.

    By the way, gas has dropped from over $9 in August to around $2.5.

    Putin's blackmail didn't work and he's having to give it away to keep money coming in.

  9. #909
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    ‘Doctor Doom’ says US dollar reign is ending

    A bipolar currency regime is likely to replace the current greenback-based unipolar one, famed economist Nouriel Roubini has predicted


    © Getty Images / rubberball


    The US dollar’s status as the world’s main reserve currency is in jeopardy, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis of 2008, wrote in an article for the Financial Times on Sunday.

    While no currency is yet capable of replacing the greenback on the pedestal altogether, the US currency is quickly losing its competitive advantage to the Chinese yuan, Roubini said.

    Given the increased weaponization of the dollar for national security purposes, and the growing geopolitical rivalry between the west and revisionist powers such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, some argue that de-dollarization will accelerate…In a world that will be increasingly divided into two geopolitical spheres of influence – namely those surrounding the US and China – it is likely that a bipolar…currency regime will eventually replace the unipolar one,” the economist, dubbed ‘Doctor Doom’ by Wall Street for his tendency toward grim predictions, stated.

    Sceptics note that the yuan cannot become a true reserve currency unless Beijing lifts capital controls, accepts permanent current account deficits, and the yuan’s exchange rate becomes more flexible. But the economist argues that such points are no longer valid, as Washington is actively undermining the allure of its currency with sanctions.

    Complete exchange rate flexibility and international capital mobility is not necessary in order for a country to achieve reserve currency status…And while China may have capital controls, the US has its own version that may reduce the appeal of dollar assets among foes and relative friends. These include financial sanctions against its rivals, restrictions to inward investment in many national security-sensitive sectors and firms, and even secondary sanctions against friends who violate the primary ones,” Roubini argued.

    The economist also noted that China has been stepping up yuan transactions with its foreign partners, and said this trend will likely continue, with more emerging market economies welcoming “the ability to trade oil in [yuan] and to hold a greater share of their reserves in the Chinese currency… given that they do a great deal more trade with China than the US.” He added that new technologies, like CBDCs, Alipay-like payment systems, swap lines between China and its partners and national analogs of the SWIFT messaging system, “will hasten the advent of a bipolar global monetary and financial system.”

    “For all these reasons, the relative decline of the US dollar as the main reserve currency is likely to occur over the next decade. The intensifying geopolitical contest between Washington and Beijing will inevitably be felt in a bipolar global reserve currency regime as well,” Roubini concluded.

    ‘Doctor Doom’ says US dollar reign is ending — RT Business News


  10. #910
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    How many versions of that old chestnut are you going to post?

    How about another "The US are going to invade Iran!" for good measure?


  11. #911
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    Only one- the latest neocon debacle in Ukraine has visibly hastened this process.

  12. #912
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Only one- the latest neocon debacle in Ukraine has visibly hastened this process.
    For "neocon debacle" read "unjustifiable Russian invasion of Ukraine".

  13. #913
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    While I do understand that there are real problems with using the petrodollar, I think that it is unlikely that any currency is able to currently replace it. To put it frankly, the Indians don't want Rubles and the Russians don't want Rupees. I do however, think that an increasing number of international transactions will use Euros and Yuan. The use of these competing global currencies will probably be good for the overall global economy.

  14. #914
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    The real strategic implication is that the USA no longer has the unilateral ability to boycott international trade and banking. By weaponising it's currency, banking and Swift system, naturally other nations have hastened to find alternatives.
    Last edited by sabang; 07-02-2023 at 04:46 PM.

  15. #915
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    The real strategic implication is that the USA no longer has the unilateral ability to boycott international trade and banking. By weaponising it's currency and Swift system, naturally the chinkies and russians have hastened to find alternatives.
    FTFY.

  16. #916
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    You can add Venezuela, Nica', Cuba, Iran, Belarus, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and anyone else who has incurred uncle sams ire, or is at risk of doing so.

  17. #917
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    You can add Venezuela, Nica', Cuba, Iran, Belarus, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and anyone else who has incurred uncle sams ire, or is at risk of doing so.
    Yes, such big players.



  18. #918
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Venezuela, Nica', Cuba, Iran, Belarus, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan
    A bunch of irrelevant shitholes. Russia is a pariah state, and so are all of its friends.


  19. #919
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    Yeh, right.



  20. #920
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    Another witty meme created by.... fuck knows who.

    But sabang likes it so it must be true.

    Meanwhile gas prices continue to plummet, which means the high-heeled midget is almost selling it at a loss to the chinkies and indians.



    Economic sanctions-untitled-jpg

  21. #921
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    ^ Y'know the weird thing is, this 'warm winter drop' is probably costing the Russian government more revenue than the war. Otoh, the 'price caps' hardly factor now.

  22. #922
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    ^ Y'know the weird thing is, this 'warm winter drop' is probably costing the Russian government more revenue than the war. Otoh, the 'price caps' hardly factor now.
    Doesn't really matter.

    The important thing is that the high-heeled midget's blackmailing has failed.

  23. #923
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    didn't you say you were a bank teller in HK?
    No. I said I was never a bank teller, and never worked for a Commercial/ retail bank. I also challenged you to find one, single gweilo bank teller in HK. Do pay attention. I was an investment guy- stockbroker, then offshore financial advisor.

    The fact that more and more world trade is being conducted in currencies besides the USD is a good thing. Inevitable, really.

  24. #924
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    So Much for Sanctions on Russia

    ..... Though the US has been disappointed, and even angry, it may not be surprising that Russia has increased trade with its BRICS and SCO partners. The response of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America may have been more surprising. Much of what is now being called "the world majority" in Russia declined invitations to the sanctions regime.

    More surprising still has been the unseen trickle of trade continuity in Europe that has been revealed by two reports.

    The first was published in August 2022. This analysis of a sample of 39 countries that accounted for 72% of Russian imports prior to the war, as the sanctions kicked in, found that exports to Russia dropped by 57%. But, since April, that has started to reverse. By June, exports were nearly back to prewar levels, going back up by 47%. The unexpected finding was that most of that recovery was attributable to countries, including European countries, who signed up for sanctions.

    The second was published at the end of January 2023. Russian consumers have maintained access to many Western goods by parallel imports that escape sanctions. Russian distributors simply order Western goods from counties that did not join the sanctions regime. Those countries buy the Western goods and sell them to Russia.

    But the report found something much more surprising than that. When Russia invaded Ukraine, in a show of protest and support for sanctions and the isolation of Russia, major EU and G-7 companies announced that they were leaving Russia. The much advertised corporate exodus from Russia was celebrated as a show of global unity. But it was, in part, an illusion.

    On January 9, Russian State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that "75.9 percent of foreign companies remained in Russia." It was not propaganda: Western reports have borne that out.

    Research published by Switzerland’s University of St. Gallen reveals that very few Western companies delivered on their announced withdrawal. Of 1,404 EU and G-7 companies with 2,405 subsidiaries in Russia at the time of the invasion, fewer than 9% had divested a single subsidiary by November 2022.

    US firms led the exodus, but even US firms entirely divested fewer than 18% of subsidiaries operating in Russia. 15% of Japanese firms had left and only 8.3% of EU firms had. The US and EU were still doing business in Russia. Of the EU and G-7 companies with open doors in Russia, 19.5% were German, 12.4% were American and 7% were Japanese.

    And some of the companies that have left seem to be making only a temporary show. When Renault and Nissan sold their Russian assets, the deal included a clause allowing them to by them back within the next six years. Some companies shut their stores only to reopen them under the name of companies they hold in other countries. Reebok is now Sneaker Box. Coca-Cola pulled out of Russia. But Coke is still on Russian shelves where it is labeled Kind Cola and is still manufactured in Coca-Cola’s several Russian factories.

    With the majority of the world’s population abstaining from sanctions, with the sanctioned Russian economy outperforming many of the economy of many of the countries that are sanctioning it, with oil exports adapting and booming and imports continuing, and with only a feigned exodus of EU and G-7 companies, it seems that the sanctions have failed either to devastate the Russian economy, as Yellen promised, or to pressure Russia into ending the war.

    Ted Snider has a graduate degree in philosophy and writes on analyzing patterns in US foreign policy and history.

    https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2023/02/07/so-much-for-sanctions-on-russia/


    Turns out, even the much vaunted 'western exodus' from doing business in Russia was a smoke n mirrors job.

  25. #925
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    With the majority of the world’s population abstaining from sanctions
    Who writes this fucking nonsense?


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