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  1. #1
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    david44's Avatar
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    ARMAGEDDON Has Evergrande Pricked the Bubble?

    A fortune cookie was the nearest the Chinese came to mind when I was young.
    Today global markets shaken and crypto tumbles as traders unload risk.
    Is ths the "Big One" or just a little prick.
    The uncertainty over energy Taiwan/N Korea is combined with next weeks German election outcome all lead to risk plus the US budget wrangle.

    Snap of live crypto market at high noon EDT today ?

    International Business, World News & Global Stock Market Analysis

    Dow off 600 midday
    ARMAGEDDON  Has Evergrande Pricked the Bubble?-clipboard01-jpg
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    Build a man a fire, he'll be warm for a day , Set a man of fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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  3. #3
    LATHER NICE
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    Bit early to judge Dow lost another 400 this afternoon other indices similar.

    BLM may become Black Iiquidity Matters as investors flee to safety and the leveraged Chinese must make those payments while touching cloth, sellig assets like property in OZ and LOS

    The old saying goes
    "you don't know whose swimming naked until the tide goes out" is about to be tested.

    In normal times central banks might bail at any cost but already the novel nightly reverse repos at huge levels, debt debate in US already .

    Of course may adjust a minor 2-3% correction with a dead cat bounce.

    The difficulty is as many analysts know there becomes a moment when economic fundamentals may be overshadowed by psycholigcal fear , panic and rush to safety.Those who remember Saxona, Suvundra , Northern Rock all pre social media, and 34 hr rolling news, Robinhood apps

    BoT already upped debt ceiling but as tiny player globally can only look on as the traders ease back from the brink or form a circular firing squad.

    The sums needed to uderp teh CDOs and derivitives are mouthwatering

    Dow a few m ago down -881 on screeshot below 900 as I write .


    ARMAGEDDON  Has Evergrande Pricked the Bubble?-881-jpg

    This may be big
    Be interesting to see if "amatuer " short term crypto kids crap out and where people seek refuge bonds, gold, Swiss Francs or in bitterly divided USA ammo?

    By the time we awake we'll know if the early markets NZ Oz Japan HK will follow the dive or rebound.


    One interesting corollary maybe the CSU-CDU rebound as German votes look back not forward , they vote to replace Merkels coalition Sunday.

    None of this willbe a surprise to really woke

    EU regulator warns of ‘high risks’ for market crash – POLITICO

    There are mounting risks that make September a potentially hazardous time for stocks

    I bailed out on the 12th and maybe lost a few days of gains and a lot of peace of mind.
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    Last edited by david44; 21-09-2021 at 01:55 AM.

  4. #4
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Did Lehman? Did Enron? The S&L crisis? Na- just another big property developer going bust.

  5. #5
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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    Yeah I'm still skeptical of this. Tomorrow the dow will be up by 1200 points

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Yeah I'm still skeptical of this. Tomorrow the dow will be up by 1200 points
    Talk about Evergrande going down

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Talk about Evergrande going down

    Evergrande must be a ladyboy, if Backspin is backing into it.

  8. #8
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    So how’s ARMAGEDDON gettin’ on?


  9. #9
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
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    Let the funny money games begin. Its all on paper anyway. Of course if your retirement hinged on some of these investments, you may have to work a few more years to recover if they keep correcting.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    Of course if your retirement hinged on some of these investments, you may have to work a few more years to recover if they keep correcting.
    Once one is fully retired and dependent on investment income the options are more limited.

    If everything crashes I can't see where I could go that is more remote than where I am now!

  11. #11
    LATHER NICE
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    And there's the rub

  12. #12
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Once one is fully retired and dependent on investment income the options are more limited.

    If everything crashes I can't see where I could go that is more remote than where I am now!
    That is definitely the risk. Having your financial future tied up in investments can be a rather stressful thing. I moved all my investments to cash and have been that way for last 2 or so years. I just didn't see the need to always wonder knowing that my income earning years were coming to an end. While it has been tempting to dip back in, I have been a gambler all my life and one needs to know when to push in their chips and cash out. Sure I have left money on the table as many of the indexes I was invested in have still risen, but I sleep well at night.

    I'm with you. I live remote and have no debt, so no worries.

  13. #13
    LATHER NICE
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    I'm with you. I live remote and have no debt, so no worries.
    Me too , last thing you need in retirement.

    For some here they have the option n 50s even 60s of resuming full time careers /self employment but by 70 regardless of cv remote working and experience all most want to do is kick back and spend these precious remaining "golden"years with loved ones doing whatever you like or nothing.I had planned to do teh Trans Canada, retrace the Camino Santiago ,N Argentina vinyards and onto Bolivia/Peru /Ecaudor as a tourist Sailing to Run n the Indonesian Islands in a wooden boat with a pal, even winter breaks in S Thailand seem to much hassle.

    Thankk God for streaming, net , movies , news on demand and of course teh nightlu clown show here.

    Like posting here , speculating following markets intently was fun, these days more of a hobby.

    Some think markets are only for those with huge sums of course all are impacted by recessions , inflation and such Black Swan epdemic has decmated tourism so that very poor people feel the pinch.

    As Cy wryly ARMAGEDDON may hopefully be on hold.
    No one can know that's why prices bonds opportunities fluctuate.

    For all those Qant wizards,Fibber=onacci curves , experts , investment gurus , Tsunamis, Wars and lil ole Corona can have real unpredicted impacts.

    I am unlicensed to give investment advice in this jurisdiction , just make sure you have plenty of sanuk and coolling beverages, I may spend some of my share divis on an a big SMEG for when Ant pops round for a cold one!

    Cheers

    Rather like contraception , investment s all about risk analysis

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    I may spend some of my share divis on an a big SMEG for when Ant pops round
    Cheap shout ?
    I hear that he is likely to ignore it

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    Cheap shout ?
    I've saved some of the 12 year old single snake yadong for your visit.

    With a Spy Strawberry chaser, as I heard you like a "Ladies Drink" hardly tastes like petrol at all.

    Part of my financial trang by an ole pro was always avoid places that have "Ladies Drink" on the menu.

    Good news is some of the young shavers here won't have to worry about retirement as they will never afford one.

    Bop til you drop.

    How tech moves on working in Florida the 1st digtal encoded album bought gf a new Technics rig basically an electric wheel on which a plastic waffle rotated, scraping a Sure diamond stylus attached by WIRES trailing all over to large boxes on the wall sorta like a 10m cube iPOD but took up half the space in my Krman Ghia when moving home!!! The car is now worth a fortune as a collectors item, record players 2 for $ 5555555555555


  16. #16
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Evergrande woes hit Japan's toilet, air-conditioner and paint manufacturers

    TOKYO (Reuters) - Concern that China Evergrande may default on its mountain of debt hit shares of toilet maker Toto and other Japanese firms that are seen vulnerable to a further slowdown in China's property development.

    Toto lost 6.1 % on Tuesday, extending its fall since Thursday to 14.8%, on the perceived risk of exposure to Evergrande, which investors fear could miss debt payment later this week.

    "There are rising and widely reported concerns about fund flows at leading local developer China Evergrande Group, whose business scale suggests to us it is very likely one of TOTO's major customers," said Arisa Katsuyama, analyst at Morgan Stanley.


    "Year-to-date debt defaults by real estate companies in China, not just China Evergrande, already exceed the cumulative figure for the past 10 years as tighter regulations bite," she said, adding investors should bear in mind the risk Toto may have to book loan loss reserves.


    China accounted for about 30% of Toto's profit last year but the firm's spokesperson said it could not comment on specific transactions including whether it has deals with Evergrande.


    Other potential suppliers to Chinese house builders and constructors were also caught in the melee, with air-conditioner manufacturer Daikin losing 4.7%.


    Almost a quarter of Daikin's air-conditioner sales came from China in the last financial year, compared with 13-16% in previous years.


    Paint maker Nippon Paint Holding, for which China is by far the largest market, slid 7.5%.


    Manufacturers of construction machines, which have long benefited from the construction boom in China, also suffered, with Komatsu losing 5.4% and Hitachi Construction Machinery shedding 5.5%.


    Investors also dumped SoftBank Group, a big investor in Alibaba and other Chinese tech firms, on fears Beijing will continue to tighten its grip on them.


    SoftBank Group shares lost 5.0% as U.S.-listed Alibaba shares hit a two-year low on Monday.


    Tomoichiro Kubota, senior strategist at Matsui Securities, said the damage could spread to more companies if China's slowdown becomes more evident.


    "It looks like Chinese authorities are clamping down on outright lavishness, which seems to have support from the Chinese public. That has some resemblance to Japan's post-bubble era, when expensive house prices were considered bad for ordinary people."


    While many Japanese firms rely on Chinese demand, Japanese institutional investors have relatively limited exposure to Chinese assets.


    Japan's biggest investor, Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), had exposure of 9.673 billion yen ($88.31 million) to Evergrande as of March, 5.9 billion yen in bonds and 3.7 billion yen in stocks, out of its 186.1 trillion yen ($1.70 trillion) assets.


    ($1 = 109.53 yen)


    Evergrande woes hit Japan's toilet, air-conditioner and paint manufacturers

  17. #17
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    For some here they have the option n 50s even 60s of resuming full time careers /self employment but by 70
    Honestly, waiting until 70 to call it a career is far too late. IMHO one should have a solid plan in place with the hopes of retiring around 50ish. At that age you still have the energy, the drive and the capability to go do things and moreover, want to. Retirement doesn't mean you do nothing, just means you do whatever it is like on your terms. Being part time employed can be one but you set the rules. Many unfortunately set traps for themselves and then are forced to have to work until they basically die in those very traps they set. It is a weird dynamic. I am watching my brother do this very thing right now.

  18. #18
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Nice article…….

    Evergrande could collapse in one of history's largest defaults

    Why it matters: Evergrande is the first big test of the global financial system — and especially the Chinese financial system — since the pandemic-induced chaos of March 2020, when central banks around the world were forced to take unprecedented measures to prevent total collapse. So far, world markets seem to be coping just fine.

    Context: By any measure, an Evergrande debt default would be one of the largest in history of the world.

    To put its $305 billion debt load in perspective, Argentina's massive foreign-debt default in 2001 was about $93 billion; Greece's restructuring in 2012 was about $200 billion; and Lehman Brothers had about $600 billion in debts when it filed for bankruptcy.

    While those defaults shook entire economies, Evergrande seems to be causing little more than some medium-sized market jitters — not even enough to derail the huge number of IPOs (14) due this week.

    Between the lines: Evergrande debt has always carried a low junk rating, and the company was being described as "the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen" as long ago as 2017. As a result, investors in Evergrande, much like investors in bitcoin or GameStop, were acutely aware that they were taking a big risk.
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  19. #19
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Embattled Chinese housing giant Evergrande said Wednesday it had agreed a deal with domestic bondholders that should allow the conglomerate to avoid default on one of its interest payments.

    Financial markets have tumbled over fears that the Chinese group could collapse, with the potential to derail the world's second-biggest economy.

    In a statement to the Shenzhen stock exchange, Evergrande's property unit Hengda said it had negotiated a plan to pay interest due on its 2025 bond, which Bloomberg News calculated was worth 232 million yuan ($35.9 million).


    China's Evergrande strikes deal to avoid default on key bond

  20. #20
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    Or as we used to say , sure the cheques "In the post".

    There has been sufficient warning.

    I wonder who'll take the biggest haircut the overseas punter or locals.

    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    There has been sufficient warning.
    Indeed.


    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’.

    Published: 8:31am, 12 Nov, 2017

    "President Xi Jinping’s comment at the 19th party congress, that “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, followed the continued tightening of housing measures across China since March, when cities began to introduce a sales ban"

    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’. But is Hong Kong listening? | South China Morning Post
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  22. #22
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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  23. #23
    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’.

    Published: 8:31am, 12 Nov, 2017
    Yet his policies actively encouraged keeping people employed by unnecessary building projects. Yet again he shows himself to be a hypocrite and a liar.



    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
    Yup

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
    A whisper on a media outlet affecting share prices! Ouch sucg a singular event. How do the NaGastan financial regulators handle such events?

    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    China's "ghost cities"
    Nobody forced the publicly traded company to adopt a certain investment.

    Caution was advised, 5 years ago:

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    "President Xi Jinping’s comment at the 19th party congress, that “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, followed the continued tightening of housing measures across China since March, when cities began to introduce a sales ban"

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat
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    Some of the heat seems to be coming out of the Evergrande issue as a little more light falls.

    A few pundits see this now as a mostly domestic Chinese matter which China will manage. Shock waves probably will not get as far as American banks, the biggest of which say they have no exposure.

    IMF says China has tools to avoid Evergrande's problems becoming systemic crisis

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it is closely following developments surrounding China Evergrande Group, but believes Beijing has the tools to prevent the situation from turning into a systemic crisis.


    IMF says China has tools to avoid Evergrande's problems becoming systemic crisis


    China Traders Take Targeted Approach Navigating Evergrande Woes
    Bloomberg News

    Selloffs are limited mostly to banks, suppliers and peers
    Expectations Beijing will stop damage spreading too far

    The China Evergrande Group crisis may hurt fewer companies than widely anticipated, with investors on the mainland expecting the fallout from the property developer to be ring-fenced.


    China Traders Take Targeted Approach Navigating Evergrande Woes - Bloomberg

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