Page 4 of 9 FirstFirst 123456789 LastLast
Results 76 to 100 of 218
  1. #76
    Thailand Expat
    panama hat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Last Online
    21-10-2023 @ 08:08 AM
    Location
    Way, Way South of the border now - thank God!
    Posts
    32,680
    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Yeah I'm still skeptical of this. Tomorrow the dow will be up by 1200 points
    Talk about Evergrande going down

  2. #77
    Thailand Expat

    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Last Online
    Today @ 04:56 AM
    Location
    Sanur
    Posts
    8,004
    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Talk about Evergrande going down

    Evergrande must be a ladyboy, if Backspin is backing into it.

  3. #78
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Home
    Posts
    33,534
    So how’s ARMAGEDDON gettin’ on?


  4. #79
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    13,577
    Let the funny money games begin. Its all on paper anyway. Of course if your retirement hinged on some of these investments, you may have to work a few more years to recover if they keep correcting.

  5. #80
    Thailand Expat
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    27-03-2024 @ 06:14 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    4,658
    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    Of course if your retirement hinged on some of these investments, you may have to work a few more years to recover if they keep correcting.
    Once one is fully retired and dependent on investment income the options are more limited.

    If everything crashes I can't see where I could go that is more remote than where I am now!

  6. #81
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    And there's the rub

  7. #82
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    13,577
    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Once one is fully retired and dependent on investment income the options are more limited.

    If everything crashes I can't see where I could go that is more remote than where I am now!
    That is definitely the risk. Having your financial future tied up in investments can be a rather stressful thing. I moved all my investments to cash and have been that way for last 2 or so years. I just didn't see the need to always wonder knowing that my income earning years were coming to an end. While it has been tempting to dip back in, I have been a gambler all my life and one needs to know when to push in their chips and cash out. Sure I have left money on the table as many of the indexes I was invested in have still risen, but I sleep well at night.

    I'm with you. I live remote and have no debt, so no worries.

  8. #83
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    I'm with you. I live remote and have no debt, so no worries.
    Me too , last thing you need in retirement.

    For some here they have the option n 50s even 60s of resuming full time careers /self employment but by 70 regardless of cv remote working and experience all most want to do is kick back and spend these precious remaining "golden"years with loved ones doing whatever you like or nothing.I had planned to do teh Trans Canada, retrace the Camino Santiago ,N Argentina vinyards and onto Bolivia/Peru /Ecaudor as a tourist Sailing to Run n the Indonesian Islands in a wooden boat with a pal, even winter breaks in S Thailand seem to much hassle.

    Thankk God for streaming, net , movies , news on demand and of course teh nightlu clown show here.

    Like posting here , speculating following markets intently was fun, these days more of a hobby.

    Some think markets are only for those with huge sums of course all are impacted by recessions , inflation and such Black Swan epdemic has decmated tourism so that very poor people feel the pinch.

    As Cy wryly ARMAGEDDON may hopefully be on hold.
    No one can know that's why prices bonds opportunities fluctuate.

    For all those Qant wizards,Fibber=onacci curves , experts , investment gurus , Tsunamis, Wars and lil ole Corona can have real unpredicted impacts.

    I am unlicensed to give investment advice in this jurisdiction , just make sure you have plenty of sanuk and coolling beverages, I may spend some of my share divis on an a big SMEG for when Ant pops round for a cold one!

    Cheers

    Rather like contraception , investment s all about risk analysis
    Quote Originally Posted by Latindancer View Post
    I just want the chance to use a bigger porridge bowl.

  9. #84
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    11,662
    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    I may spend some of my share divis on an a big SMEG for when Ant pops round
    Cheap shout ?
    I hear that he is likely to ignore it

  10. #85
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    Cheap shout ?
    I've saved some of the 12 year old single snake yadong for your visit.

    With a Spy Strawberry chaser, as I heard you like a "Ladies Drink" hardly tastes like petrol at all.

    Part of my financial trang by an ole pro was always avoid places that have "Ladies Drink" on the menu.

    Good news is some of the young shavers here won't have to worry about retirement as they will never afford one.

    Bop til you drop.

    How tech moves on working in Florida the 1st digtal encoded album bought gf a new Technics rig basically an electric wheel on which a plastic waffle rotated, scraping a Sure diamond stylus attached by WIRES trailing all over to large boxes on the wall sorta like a 10m cube iPOD but took up half the space in my Krman Ghia when moving home!!! The car is now worth a fortune as a collectors item, record players 2 for $ 5555555555555


  11. #86
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Chiang Mai
    Posts
    48,095
    Evergrande woes hit Japan's toilet, air-conditioner and paint manufacturers

    TOKYO (Reuters) - Concern that China Evergrande may default on its mountain of debt hit shares of toilet maker Toto and other Japanese firms that are seen vulnerable to a further slowdown in China's property development.

    Toto lost 6.1 % on Tuesday, extending its fall since Thursday to 14.8%, on the perceived risk of exposure to Evergrande, which investors fear could miss debt payment later this week.

    "There are rising and widely reported concerns about fund flows at leading local developer China Evergrande Group, whose business scale suggests to us it is very likely one of TOTO's major customers," said Arisa Katsuyama, analyst at Morgan Stanley.


    "Year-to-date debt defaults by real estate companies in China, not just China Evergrande, already exceed the cumulative figure for the past 10 years as tighter regulations bite," she said, adding investors should bear in mind the risk Toto may have to book loan loss reserves.


    China accounted for about 30% of Toto's profit last year but the firm's spokesperson said it could not comment on specific transactions including whether it has deals with Evergrande.


    Other potential suppliers to Chinese house builders and constructors were also caught in the melee, with air-conditioner manufacturer Daikin losing 4.7%.


    Almost a quarter of Daikin's air-conditioner sales came from China in the last financial year, compared with 13-16% in previous years.


    Paint maker Nippon Paint Holding, for which China is by far the largest market, slid 7.5%.


    Manufacturers of construction machines, which have long benefited from the construction boom in China, also suffered, with Komatsu losing 5.4% and Hitachi Construction Machinery shedding 5.5%.


    Investors also dumped SoftBank Group, a big investor in Alibaba and other Chinese tech firms, on fears Beijing will continue to tighten its grip on them.


    SoftBank Group shares lost 5.0% as U.S.-listed Alibaba shares hit a two-year low on Monday.


    Tomoichiro Kubota, senior strategist at Matsui Securities, said the damage could spread to more companies if China's slowdown becomes more evident.


    "It looks like Chinese authorities are clamping down on outright lavishness, which seems to have support from the Chinese public. That has some resemblance to Japan's post-bubble era, when expensive house prices were considered bad for ordinary people."


    While many Japanese firms rely on Chinese demand, Japanese institutional investors have relatively limited exposure to Chinese assets.


    Japan's biggest investor, Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), had exposure of 9.673 billion yen ($88.31 million) to Evergrande as of March, 5.9 billion yen in bonds and 3.7 billion yen in stocks, out of its 186.1 trillion yen ($1.70 trillion) assets.


    ($1 = 109.53 yen)


    Evergrande woes hit Japan's toilet, air-conditioner and paint manufacturers

  12. #87
    CCBW Stumpy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    13,577
    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    For some here they have the option n 50s even 60s of resuming full time careers /self employment but by 70
    Honestly, waiting until 70 to call it a career is far too late. IMHO one should have a solid plan in place with the hopes of retiring around 50ish. At that age you still have the energy, the drive and the capability to go do things and moreover, want to. Retirement doesn't mean you do nothing, just means you do whatever it is like on your terms. Being part time employed can be one but you set the rules. Many unfortunately set traps for themselves and then are forced to have to work until they basically die in those very traps they set. It is a weird dynamic. I am watching my brother do this very thing right now.

  13. #88
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    left of center
    Posts
    20,590
    Nice article…….

    Evergrande could collapse in one of history's largest defaults

    Why it matters: Evergrande is the first big test of the global financial system — and especially the Chinese financial system — since the pandemic-induced chaos of March 2020, when central banks around the world were forced to take unprecedented measures to prevent total collapse. So far, world markets seem to be coping just fine.

    Context: By any measure, an Evergrande debt default would be one of the largest in history of the world.

    To put its $305 billion debt load in perspective, Argentina's massive foreign-debt default in 2001 was about $93 billion; Greece's restructuring in 2012 was about $200 billion; and Lehman Brothers had about $600 billion in debts when it filed for bankruptcy.

    While those defaults shook entire economies, Evergrande seems to be causing little more than some medium-sized market jitters — not even enough to derail the huge number of IPOs (14) due this week.

    Between the lines: Evergrande debt has always carried a low junk rating, and the company was being described as "the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen" as long ago as 2017. As a result, investors in Evergrande, much like investors in bitcoin or GameStop, were acutely aware that they were taking a big risk.
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  14. #89
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    96,555
    Embattled Chinese housing giant Evergrande said Wednesday it had agreed a deal with domestic bondholders that should allow the conglomerate to avoid default on one of its interest payments.

    Financial markets have tumbled over fears that the Chinese group could collapse, with the potential to derail the world's second-biggest economy.

    In a statement to the Shenzhen stock exchange, Evergrande's property unit Hengda said it had negotiated a plan to pay interest due on its 2025 bond, which Bloomberg News calculated was worth 232 million yuan ($35.9 million).


    China's Evergrande strikes deal to avoid default on key bond

  15. #90
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    Palace Far from Worries
    Posts
    14,393
    Evergrande crisis will hurt China’s economic growth, says former central bank advisor

    Key Points
    • Evergrande’s debt crisis will slow down China’s economic growth, said Li Daokui, a former advisor to the People’s Bank of China.
    • But the crisis will have minimal spillover on the financial system because there aren’t derivative instruments built on Evergrande’s debt, said Li, now a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management.
    • Li predicted that in the medium- to long-term, the embattled company will likely be “dissolved” into four main groups.


    Evergrande crisis to hurt China economy: Li Daokui, ex-PBOC advisor
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  16. #91
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    Or as we used to say , sure the cheques "In the post".

    There has been sufficient warning.

    I wonder who'll take the biggest haircut the overseas punter or locals.

    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

  17. #92
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    There has been sufficient warning.
    Indeed.


    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’.

    Published: 8:31am, 12 Nov, 2017

    "President Xi Jinping’s comment at the 19th party congress, that “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, followed the continued tightening of housing measures across China since March, when cities began to introduce a sales ban"

    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’. But is Hong Kong listening? | South China Morning Post
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  18. #93
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    96,555

  19. #94
    Thailand Expat
    panama hat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Last Online
    21-10-2023 @ 08:08 AM
    Location
    Way, Way South of the border now - thank God!
    Posts
    32,680
    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Xi Jinping says houses are ‘for living in, not for speculation’.

    Published: 8:31am, 12 Nov, 2017
    Yet his policies actively encouraged keeping people employed by unnecessary building projects. Yet again he shows himself to be a hypocrite and a liar.



    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
    Yup

  20. #95
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    We'll soon have a sharp reminder of Capitalism with Chinese characteristics.
    A whisper on a media outlet affecting share prices! Ouch sucg a singular event. How do the NaGastan financial regulators handle such events?

    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    China's "ghost cities"
    Nobody forced the publicly traded company to adopt a certain investment.

    Caution was advised, 5 years ago:

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    "President Xi Jinping’s comment at the 19th party congress, that “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, followed the continued tightening of housing measures across China since March, when cities began to introduce a sales ban"

  21. #96
    Thailand Expat
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    27-03-2024 @ 06:14 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    4,658
    Some of the heat seems to be coming out of the Evergrande issue as a little more light falls.

    A few pundits see this now as a mostly domestic Chinese matter which China will manage. Shock waves probably will not get as far as American banks, the biggest of which say they have no exposure.

    IMF says China has tools to avoid Evergrande's problems becoming systemic crisis

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it is closely following developments surrounding China Evergrande Group, but believes Beijing has the tools to prevent the situation from turning into a systemic crisis.


    IMF says China has tools to avoid Evergrande's problems becoming systemic crisis


    China Traders Take Targeted Approach Navigating Evergrande Woes
    Bloomberg News

    Selloffs are limited mostly to banks, suppliers and peers
    Expectations Beijing will stop damage spreading too far

    The China Evergrande Group crisis may hurt fewer companies than widely anticipated, with investors on the mainland expecting the fallout from the property developer to be ring-fenced.


    China Traders Take Targeted Approach Navigating Evergrande Woes - Bloomberg

  22. #97
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,088
    Roubini gave a recent interview re stagflation debt trap.

    Seems the usual solution inflation by stealth is the only alternative to tryng to get tax from the mobile wealthy.

    Xi's new enthusiam to control markets will come unstuck as all history shows, you may bend markes temporarily but not for ever.

    If the Midddle Kingdom wants a truly convertible kwai, WTO and market access for the material his billion will need to eat flexibility will be required.

    This is not the clip I saw but similar content on Bloomberg interview


  23. #98
    Thailand Expat
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    27-03-2024 @ 06:14 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    4,658
    Quote Originally Posted by david44 View Post
    Roubini gave a recent interview re stagflation debt trap.
    Interesting and informative, although it is information I'd be happier without.

  24. #99
    Thailand Expat
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    27-03-2024 @ 06:14 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    4,658
    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    Honestly, waiting until 70 to call it a career is far too late. IMHO one should have a solid plan in place with the hopes of retiring around 50ish. At that age you still have the energy, the drive and the capability to go do things and moreover, want to.
    “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men. Gang aft a-gley”.

    When I was 45 I had my retirement target set at 55. I was prepared to stretch it to 60 because my youngest would still be at university and I needed some flexibility. It all looked good.

    Then the multinational employer went tits-up with an underfunded pension scheme and substantial stock options went to zero. I started on a new path in time to get walloped by the Global Financial Crisis. It took a while to get reemployed, which took me to 60. I baled out and the missus filed for divorce a few days after she realised the cash flow was stopping. She walked away with better than half.

    Plans don't always work out as one might hope.

  25. #100
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 08:43 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    25,222
    Credit markets will withstand Evergrande shocks

    September 23, 20214:18 PM

    By Neil Unmack

    "Is China Evergrande (3333.HK) another Lehman Brothers moment? Not at all, according to the $40 trillion global corporate debt market. International credit investors have good reasons to be so nonchalant about the potential ripple effects of problems at the Chinese property behemoth with a $300 billion debt pile.

    Granted, Evergrande’s slow-motion crash has had some impact. As the group’s 2025 dollar bonds have collapsed to trade at a mere 30% of face value, the riskier end of China’s debt market has suffered. The average yield on dollar bonds issued by junk-rated Chinese companies has doubled to around 16% since the start of the year, according to an ICE Bank of America index. And safe-haven U.S. bonds rallied on Monday when global stock markets wobbled.

    But those ripple effects look contained. In the United States, where some $19 billion of Evergrande bonds are issued, the average extra yield that investors demand to own junk-rated debt is steady at roughly 310 basis points, another ICE Bank of America index shows. That’s even lower than the levels seen in the heady days of September 2006. And the yield spread on bonds issued by U.S. and European investment-grade companies are below levels seen in late 2007, the year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    This makes sense. Western government bond yields are still low and below market expectations of future inflation. Investors need to take risks if they don't want to see price rises erode their returns.

    New Covid-19 variants or a Chinese property meltdown could hurt the global economic recovery. But companies have emerged from the pandemic in good health having raised cash, cut costs and skimped on investment in the past 18 months. European companies’ debt has fallen to 2.3 times trailing EBITDA and that multiple could sink as low as 2 times by year-end, its lowest since before the Lehman collapse in 2008, Citi analysts reckon.

    Meanwhile, Moody’s is forecasting a global corporate default rate of just 1.7% year-end, less than half the historic average.

    Resilience could prove to be an Achilles heel. Persistent demand for corporate debt will keep borrowing costs low, which may tempt more companies to gear up to finance shareholder payouts.

    That, however, will be a problem for another year."




    Credit markets will withstand Evergrande shocks | Reuters

Page 4 of 9 FirstFirst 123456789 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •