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  1. #1
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    Potential Efforts to Reboot Afghanistan

    Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?

    September 3, 2021




    Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.


    by Dara Massicot


    "Much of the discussion on the geopolitical implications of the former Afghan government’s recent collapse has focused on what China may do next. However, Russia is the active regional influencer in the unfolding crisis, given its decades-old experience and networks in Afghanistan. In the weeks and months ahead, Russia can apply its diplomatic, intelligence, and military tools to prevent the spread of instability beyond Afghanistan. Some of Russia’s choices may conflict with U.S. goals for Afghanistan, but there are areas of alignment.

    Russia’s Goals for Afghanistan


    For many years, Russian officials predicted that the former Afghan government and its Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) would likely collapse without U.S. support. In 2017 Russia’s special representative to Afghanistan noted that “a whole set of factors makes the ANSF incapable of putting up resistance to the armed opposition on their own” and that a rapid U.S. pullout would likely prompt an unraveling of key institutions.

    Moscow has spent the last few years developing a relationship with the Taliban and bolstering its force posture in Central Asia. Even though Moscow may not be surprised that the former Afghan government collapsed, the Kremlin considers the current situation to be dangerous. On August 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the growth of terrorist groups in Afghanistan is a “direct threat to our country, our allies.” He also clarified that Russia will not militarily involve itself in Afghanistan again, saying that “the former Soviet Union has its own experience in that country. We have learned the lesson.”

    Moscow has two core interests related to Afghanistan: supporting its Central Asian allies during the regional instability that is likely to come and preventing international terrorism from spreading to the Russian homeland.

    Nikolai Patrushev, chair of the Russian Security Council, outlined Russia’s immediate goals for Afghanistan in August:

    1) controlling migration flows from Afghanistan to Central Asia and Russia,

    2) protecting Central Asia from terrorists pretending to be refugees,

    3) preventing the spread of radical ideology beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and

    4) protecting against arms smuggling and drug trafficking.

    Other goals articulated by senior Russian officials include preventing the United States from unilaterally negotiating military base access with Central Asian states and avoiding involvement in a military conflict in Afghanistan."


    Continues, in depth, with additional chapters such as

    Russia’s Networks in Afghanistan

    Russia’s Intelligence, Security Service, and Military Options for Afghanistan

    Intelligence support to the Taliban regarding terrorist groups inside Afghanistan.

    Border security and humanitarian relief for Central Asia.

    Use of Russian mercenaries or Special Forces inside Afghanistan.

    Bolstering counterterrorism efforts inside Russia.

    Military support for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

    What resources could Russia bring to limited military operations in Afghanistan

    Russia’s Possible Next Steps and Implications for the United States


    ....

    at:

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature...rrorism-193101

    The article's writer:

    Dara Massicot




    Senior Policy Researcher

    Washington Office

    Education

    :M.A. in national security and strategic studies, U.S. Naval War College ; B.A. in Russian language and literature, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; B.A. in peace, war, and defense, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    Dara Massicot is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Before joining RAND, she served as a senior analyst for Russian military capabilities at the Department of Defense.

    Her work at RAND focuses on defense and security issues in Russia and Eurasia. She specializes in Russian military strategy, combat operations, and power projection, as well as Russian military modernization and escalation dynamics.

    Her interests include force posture, force planning, and grand strategy. She is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program."
    Last edited by OhOh; 07-09-2021 at 11:00 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    On August 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the growth of terrorist groups in Afghanistan is a “direct threat to our country, our allies.”
    And by allies he means Chinastan, Iran, and a few other countries run by likeminded dictators.

    He's right, too.

    Should really be thanking the US for keeping them occupied for the last 20 years, the ungrateful murderous bastard.

  3. #3
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    Taliban spokesman announces new Afghan cabinet membership

    7 Sep, 22:13Updated at: 7 Sep, 22:52

    Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund is appointed as the Prime Minister of the country

    "CAIRO, September 7. /TASS/.

    The Taliban movement (outlawed in Russia) announced the new Afghan cabinet membership Tuesday.

    "Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund is appointed as the Prime Minister of the country;

    Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is now his Deputy, and

    Mullah Abdul Salam Hanafi is his second Deputy,"

    Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said at the press conference, televised by Ariana News.

    According to the spokesman, this government membership is temporary.

    Amir Khan Mottaqi became the new Foreign Minister of Afghanistan,

    Mullah Yaqoob became the new Defense Minister.

    Sirajuddin Haqqani was appointed as the Minister of the Interior,

    Ministry of Culture and Information will be led by Mujahid himself.

    Mawlawi Noorullah Munir was appointed as the Minister of Education,

    Mohammad Hanif became the Minister of Economy

    Mullah Mohammad Idris was appointed the new Central Bank head."


    Taliban spokesman announces new Afghan cabinet membership - World - TASS

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    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    For many years, Russian officials predicted that the former Afghan government and its Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) would likely collapse without U.S. support. In 2017 Russia’s special representative to Afghanistan noted that “a whole set of factors makes the ANSF incapable of putting up resistance to the armed opposition on their own” and that a rapid U.S. pullout would likely prompt an unraveling of key institutions.
    It seems the Ruskies saw the 'writing on the wall'.

    So how come the Americans were so blind-sided?

    Something military historians will be asking for years to come.

    And in the meantime, it's high time the USA, and international monetary players released the funds they are holding which rightfully belong to the Afghan people. Huge amounts of food and medicine relief are required and it is required right now to prevent untold hardship on the Afghan people. Let's release this right now and stop playing stupid pissing contest games. My two cents worth.
    Deputy Teak Door Contrarian

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    And by allies he means Chinastan, Iran,
    Russia, China and Iran. It is hard to think of three more different nations actually. Yet, according to you, somehow they can be allies. Think about that.

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    Internal interference has not worked there over the centuries. Leave Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve the issues of medieval barbarism that continue to exist, in a region that has proven intractable to any efforts to improve the life of citizens.
    They require no assistance in their desire to return to the Stone Age. See what happens if they are left to their own devices.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Taliban spokesman announces new Afghan cabinet membership


    Taliban spokesman announces new Afghan cabinet membership - World - TASS

    • 100% MALE
    • 100% Religious Nutters
    • Backed by China (Who backs ALL dictatorships)

    What could possibly go wrong....

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    What could possibly go worse, than the US incursion? Anyway, it's their problem now.

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    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Russia, China and Iran. It is hard to think of three more different nations actually.
    Similarly non-aligned, undemocratic and with leaders kept in business by their armed forces.

    But perhaps you were thinking more of things like food and fashion sense?

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Politically- Theocracy vs Communist vs (flawed] Democracy.

    Racially- East Asian/ Mongoloid vs primarily Caucasian vs mainly Persian


    I can spot a few differences there. Can you?

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    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Well, come to think of it, only one uses chop sticks.

    The second knives and forks, and the third fingers.

    Hey, this is fun…and quite revealing about geo-political ambitions.


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    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Russia, China and Iran. It is hard to think of three more different nations actually. Yet, according to you, somehow they can be allies. Think about that.
    Of course they can and are geo-stategically. Surely you've heard of the old adage regarding enemy of enemy etc... and in this instance they aren't even enemies.


    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    What could possibly go worse, than the US incursion?
    Ask the girls and women in Afghanistan. Musicians anyone? As silly thing to say, sabang.

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Well, to quote my hackneyed saying- "Lets see". It's their problem now.

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    Thailand Expat havnfun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by russellsimpson View Post
    So how come the Americans were so blind-sided?
    They weren't, Biden even told the then Afghan President Ghani to lie about the Taliban takeover of the country back in July.

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    If your definition of success is to make fat War Pigs even more grotesquely obese, it was an unqualified success.
    By any other measure, it was an abject failure and a total embarrassment..
    Kudos to President Joseph Biden for finally having the balls to get the feck out!

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    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    By any other measure, it was an abject failure and a total embarrassment..
    Again, I'm sure a certain level of freedom, particularly for women and girls would counteract your assessment. Oh, and maybe the freedom of musicians to . . . play music.

    Girls educated past the age of nine, girls at university, women in professions, women as university profs and women in parliament to the tune of 27% of al delegates.

    Now? Try fairly well zip.

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    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by russellsimpson View Post
    It seems the Ruskies saw the 'writing on the wall'.

    So how come the Americans were so blind-sided?

    Something military historians will be asking for years to come.

    And in the meantime, it's high time the USA, and international monetary players released the funds they are holding which rightfully belong to the Afghan people. Huge amounts of food and medicine relief are required and it is required right now to prevent untold hardship on the Afghan people. Let's release this right now and stop playing stupid pissing contest games. My two cents worth.
    It was no suprise to anyone the Afghan gov would cut and run the moment the US left. For 15 years the US "officials" have been putting lipstick on this very ugly pig. Aided and abetted by mainstream media pumping nonsense to the US citizenry to keep the occupation going.

    Sure, go ahead and release the funds to the "Afghan people" who will receive a very small percentage as they did under the last government. Of course, when the feces hits the fan and the new gov is overthrown as every gov over the past 70 tears has, gonna have to freeze assets again. Rinse n repeat.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    It was no suprise to anyone the Afghan gov would cut and run the moment the US left. For 15 years the US "officials" have been putting lipstick on this very ugly pig. Aided and abetted by mainstream media pumping nonsense to the US citizenry to keep the occupation going.
    Yes, the US has a strong base of intelligence analysts and it is pretty certain that those people were able to give Biden an accurate forecast, except maybe the timeline caught some by surprise. I'm not sure even about that, surely no one expected the salaried Afghan soldier to do anything other than hand everything over without dying for it.

    It seems to have been mainly the American press, which I frankly don't bother much about, who have created this narrative about everything being mishandled. To me, Biden had a black and white decision to make and he made the tougher call, the right one.

    I also wouldn't say these 20 years were wasted, I think that 'nation building' was window dressing, the real purposes were (1) to let the American people see that its government was avenging 911 and (2) maintaining a sort of controlled instability in the region rather than allowing a stable but disliked regime to develop. That policy sort of suited Russia and China too. Also it suited Pakistan, who could play both sides and keep some of their revenue streams running.

    The whole business is tragic for the average Afghan person and doubly so for women. I'd like to see emergency aid like medical supplies and survival rations being delivered, not to the central government but by aid agencies direct to the populace who most need it. Unlikely, I guess. As Norton suggests, I think that releasing Afghan government funds to the Taliban will not solve anything, except perhaps to allow the Taliban to open their own Swiss accounts and help them repair and maintain their newly acquired military arsenal.
    If they want that money they have to offer something in return. State education for women up to degree level would be a good start. Can anyone who has actually read the Quran tell me where it precludes women from getting an education? Thought not. That is just Taliban creed.

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Girls educated past the age of nine, girls at university, women in professions, women as university profs and women in parliament to the tune of 27% of al delegates.

    Now? Try fairly well zip.
    Heres the View from Hong Kong, China-


    Afghanistan: A curtain divides male and female students as universities reopen




    Students across Afghanistan have started returning to university for the first time since the Taliban stormed to power, and in some cases females have been separated from their male peers by curtains or boards down the middle of the classroom.

    What happens in universities and schools across the country is being closely watched by foreign powers, who want the Islamist militant movement to respect the rights of women in return for vital aid and diplomatic engagement.

    When the Taliban last ruled from 1996-2001, the group banned girls from school and women from university and work.

    Full article- Afghanistan: A curtain divides male and female students as universities reopen | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)



    So not quite as bad as you say PH. Lets see- and it ain't our bluddy ploblem now anyway.


    Last edited by sabang; 08-09-2021 at 11:22 AM.

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    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Russia, China and Iran. It is hard to think of three more different nations actually. Yet, according to you, somehow they can be allies. Think about that.
    Don't be absurd.

    The Russians and the Chinkies vote together as one on the Security council. Even hoohoo has posted how the chinkies are using (although not for long once they've nicked the design) Russian military hardware.

    And both of them are up Iran's arsehole. Russia sells them weapons and the chinkies buy all their oil (most of it illegally).

    Don't you know anything?

  21. #21
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    Internal interference has not worked there over the centuries. Leave Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve the issues of medieval barbarism that continue to exist
    It was Pakistan that launched the medieval barbarism that continues to exist. The Taliban founders studied Islam extremism in Pakistan.

  22. #22
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    What could possibly go worse, than the US incursion? Anyway, it's their problem now.
    At least under the US women had freedom, the nation had a vastly improved healthcare system, child mortality rates plummeted, education was for all.

    Do you consider all of that to be bad?

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    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    Yawn. Pay attention 'arry


    Politically- Theocracy vs Communist vs (flawed] Democracy.

    Racially- East Asian/ Mongoloid vs primarily Caucasian vs mainly Persian


    I can spot a few differences there. Can you?

  24. #24
    Chinese spy sabang's Avatar
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    ^^ Ya crack me up, again. Larf a minute 'arry.

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Let's see now:

    Politically- Theocracy vs Communist vs (flawed] Democracy.
    None of them fit into that. Power is concentrated into two individuals and a cabal of beardy old twats and all are elected by the most dubious simulations of democracy.

    Racially- East Asian/ Mongoloid vs primarily Caucasian vs mainly Persian
    Who said race is an issue? Or even religion for that matter.

    All three force their particular beliefs on their countries regardless of the choices of their citizens.

    Maybe you've heard of "Jews" and "Muslims". Perhaps they are strange words to your poorly educated ears. Or perhaps, like the chinkies, you just don't like hearing them.

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